WI: Charles II of Spain agrees to the Treaty of London (1700)?

[AsukaEMP]

1. Didn't the Treaty of London also include France exchanging Naples and Sicily for Savoy proper and Nice? I'm pretty sure it wasn't intended for France to keep any lands beyond the Alps... Together with the exchange of Milan for Lorraine that basically consolidated their borders into what's now metropolitan France some 150 years ahead of schedule (Savoy and Nice only being incorporated during the period of Italian unification).

2. imo the Treaty of London being implemented would make the biggest winner and loser of otl's Utrecht switch place, the British and the Dutch. Ironically London didn't change anything for either for them, but that's exactly why. The Dutch basically bankrupted themselves trying to fend off the French and all they got from it was a barrier treaty that, it turned out, they couldn't actually afford anymore. And to add insult to injury they lost the right to trade in the Spanish colonies to the British. The British on the other hand gained a bunch of land, none of them too big but a couple with a large strategic value, and major economic benefits (like the aforementioned trade deal). With London the British instead gain nothing except for a pat on the back for keeping the peace in Europe (for a while). The Dutch instead get to keep their buffer zone, their Spanish trade, and their economic stability and they don't have to lift a finger for it.

France, if anything, also loses out with London imo. It's true that they would get a couple of new lands (as mentioned before), but I'd argue that a Bourbon on the Spanish throne was way more advantageous to them than the small territorial gains envisioned in the Treaty of London. Spain would have a minor gain instead, since they get to hold on to the Spanish Netherlands in this scenario. Austria has basically a stalemate, they keep their dynasty on the Spanish throne but the associated lands are reduced, specifically in Italy.

What happens afterwards really depends on who's the first to complain about their share. The Habsburgs would most likely want their Italian lands back, France would want the Spanish Netherlands (as usual), etc.​

 

[unprincipled peter]

Talking about this point, would Austria-Spain even be able to compete with France in this TL? Spain is broken and Austria is a relic.

Alone, no. This mass spirit of cooperation will be temporary, though. France will still be seen as too big for its britches, and the rest of the continental powers/Britain will remain wary/ready to align.

Louis XIV never saw a peace he couldn't turn into war, and never acquired the sense to quit while ahead, so I have little faith in this ATL coming to pass as long as XIV draws a breath. Perhaps the POD is XIV tumbling down some stairs immediately after the treaty, but before he convinces Carlos II to undermine it with a will leaving everything to Philip. Under Le Grand Dauphin (now alt XV) we might see acceptance of the treaty, and it really doesn't matter what CII wanted, as he'll be dead. The will leaves everything to Carlos III, but France will point to the treaty, and move to enforce it.

Without the Sun King, and his constant lust for territorial gain through war, and a wary peace (after Austria is forced to back off in Italy) sets in. There will be a war at some point, but if the focal point is not the XIV era of containing France, we'll see different alliances. Britain doesn't want a dominant Habsburg coalition any more than it wants a dominant France (which is why they want the partition in the first place). IF Joseph I dies as OTL, with OTL Habsburg births (not a good assumption), look for a combined War of Austrian/Spanish Succession. Britain likely backs France (or can be distracted by an attempted Stuart restoration), and France can force a resolution palatable to French taste. The only way I see Britain backing the Habsburgs is if Joseph's daughter is put on the Spanish throne, with Carlos III transitioning to Austria, and France tries to take the Spanish throne. Britain may still stay out, especially as this is period of Anne's declining health, and Britain has its own succession crisis looming.

 

[Malaise]

1. Didn't the Treaty of London also include France exchanging Naples and Sicily for Savoy proper and Nice? I'm pretty sure it wasn't intend for France to keep any lands beyond the Alps... Together with the exchange of Milan for Lorraine that basically consolidated their borders into what's new metropolitan France some 150 years ahead of schedule (Savoy and Nice only being incorporated during the period of Italian unification).​

I looked more into it and you're right. That indeed was the plan.

 

[GenghisKhanfan]

Really? Won't we get an even messier one considering that Carlos III (our Karl VI) is still going to end up inheriting Austria? Combine that with the possibility that Carlos III (our Karl VI) only sires female children and we get quite the mess.

We have four possible options:

1. Carlos III has multiple sons or one son and at least one daughter. If this happens he can divide Spain and Austria between his children, even if he only has one son as the Spanish crown allows female inheritance. This is the ideal scenario for him.

2. Carlos III has only one son. This one will be tricky. I think we'll get a big Habsburg vs the world war (unless France does something to really piss the maritime powers off) to maintain his realms.

3. Carlos III has at least one daughter and no sons. This forces him to abandon Austria and the HRE to Bavaria. A serious blow to the Habsburgs.

4. Carlos III has no surviving children. This could change up Europe's borders as much as the Treaty of Versailles. This is the wild card possibility.

Wouldn't Charles/Carlos III (IV) not having surviving children simply bring about a new succession crisis? If this is the same Charles VI-correct me if I'm wrong about this-who had to get a Pragmatic Sanction signed by the HRE and then the rest of Europe to insure his daughter Maria Theresa would inherit the Hapsburg Monarchy, then wouldn't the lack of ANY heirs bring about a succession war anyway?

I'm keeping in mind that Spain doesn't observe the Salic Law forbidding female succession, but also-and again correct me if I'm wrong-also going with the idea that he has NO children, male or female to succeed him? I'm asking this because there is two possible situations that could arise from this:
1) Another Hapsburg would have to be named to succeed him
2) Some sort of arrangement would have to be reached with France, possibly a partition treaty which could actually split Spain back into its two main constituent states, Castile and Aragon
3) The Spanish government would have to seek out a prince from a different dynasty (perhaps the Hohenzollerns) to accept the Spanish Crown and hence begin a new period of Spanish imperial rule

 

[Malaise]

Wouldn't Charles/Carlos III (IV) not having surviving children simply bring about a new succession crisis? If this is the same Charles VI-correct me if I'm wrong about this-who had to get a Pragmatic Sanction signed by the HRE and then the rest of Europe to insure his daughter Maria Theresa would inherit the Hapsburg Monarchy, then wouldn't the lack of ANY heirs bring about a succession war anyway?

I'm keeping in mind that Spain doesn't observe the Salic Law forbidding female succession, but also-and again correct me if I'm wrong-also going with the idea that he has NO children, male or female to succeed him? I'm asking this because there is two possible situations that could arise from this:
1) Another Hapsburg would have to be named to succeed him
2) Some sort of arrangement would have to be reached with France, possibly a partition treaty which could actually split Spain back into its two main constituent states, Castile and Aragon
3) The Spanish government would have to seek out a prince from a different dynasty (perhaps the Hohenzollerns) to accept the Spanish Crown and hence begin a new period of Spanish imperial rule

The Habsburgs OTL had an emergency plan for this: Austria and the HRE would go to Bavaria. If Carlos III has no children then that plan will be followed through and either some distant Wittelsbach cousin would get the Spanish throne or, more likely, the Bourbons will succeed in their second play for Spain.

 

[Vanity 6]

The Habsburgs OTL had an emergency plan for this: Austria and the HRE would go to Bavaria. If Carlos III has no children then that plan will be followed through and either some distant Wittelsbach cousin would get the Spanish throne or, more likely, the Bourbons will succeed in their second play for Spain.

I did not know this. Makes sense though from a familial and geopolitical standpoint despite the more recent bad blood.

But I think it is just as likely that Charles and Joseph have male issue. Removing the war changes everyday lives and the dates times and frequencies of visits to the bedchamber. It also could butterfly away the early death of Joseph.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Wouldn't Charles/Carlos III (IV) not having surviving children simply bring about a new succession crisis? If this is the same Charles VI-correct me if I'm wrong about this-who had to get a Pragmatic Sanction signed by the HRE and then the rest of Europe to insure his daughter Maria Theresa would inherit the Hapsburg Monarchy, then wouldn't the lack of ANY heirs bring about a succession war anyway?

I'm keeping in mind that Spain doesn't observe the Salic Law forbidding female succession, but also-and again correct me if I'm wrong-also going with the idea that he has NO children, male or female to succeed him? I'm asking this because there is two possible situations that could arise from this:
1) Another Hapsburg would have to be named to succeed him
2) Some sort of arrangement would have to be reached with France, possibly a partition treaty which could actually split Spain back into its two main constituent states, Castile and Aragon
3) The Spanish government would have to seek out a prince from a different dynasty (perhaps the Hohenzollerns) to accept the Spanish Crown and hence begin a new period of Spanish imperial rule

Absolutely there's going to be a succession crisis. Regardless of any plans laid out, might makes right. The one with the most power decides who ascends a throne.

The Habsburgs OTL had an emergency plan for this: Austria and the HRE would go to Bavaria. If Carlos III has no children then that plan will be followed through and either some distant Wittelsbach cousin would get the Spanish throne or, more likely, the Bourbons will succeed in their second play for Spain.

Is this under the assumption that Carlos has managed to hold the thrones of both Austria and Spain, after the death of Joseph? What's the time frame of this plan? The Mutual Pact of Succession (1703), superseded by the Pragmatic Sanction (1713) laid out the succession lines through the daughters of Joseph/Carlos. When would there ever been the need for the Habsburg plan you reference? Does it hark back a century earlier? Does this plan have a name that I might google?



Technically, this would be the first Bourbon play for Spain, as OTL WoSS has been butterflied by peaceful partition.

I think there was a Savoy candidate for the Spanish throne in 1700. There's a whole lot of gray area in this WI within a WI, but there might be a compromise candidate in this alt crisis. I continue to maintain one person holding both crowns is highly unlikely.

 

[Malaise]

Is this under the assumption that Carlos has managed to hold the thrones of both Austria and Spain, after the death of Joseph? What's the time frame of this plan? The Mutual Pact of Succession (1703), superseded by the Pragmatic Sanction (1713) laid out the succession lines through the daughters of Joseph/Carlos. When would there ever been the need for the Habsburg plan you reference? Does it hark back a century earlier? Does this plan have a name that I might google?

I was talking about the Mutual Pact of Succession, came back to the thread for the explicit purpose of explaining it. The pact was made in case Carlos III/Karl VI didn't have enough/appropriate heirs for both Spain and Austria. Also I made a mistake saying it would go to Bavaria. Despite the Elector of Bavaria styling himself as the Archduke of Austria, the Wettins, the ruling house of Saxony and Poland, have the senior right to the Austrian realms.

 

[Malaise]

I think there was a Savoy candidate for the Spanish throne in 1700. There's a whole lot of gray area in this WI within a WI, but there might be a compromise candidate in this alt crisis.

The Savoy candidate was Duke Victor Amadeus II himself since he was a great-great-grandson of Philip II of Spain. His claim was far weaker than the Bourbons or Habsburgs but he was in control of a middling power which could give him some leverage if further compromises and negotiations are made.

 

[unprincipled peter]

I was talking about the Mutual Pact of Succession, came back to the thread for the explicit purpose of explaining it. The pact was made in case Carlos III/Karl VI didn't have enough/appropriate heirs for both Spain and Austria. Also I made a mistake saying it would go to Bavaria. Despite the Elector of Bavaria styling himself as the Archduke of Austria, the Wettins, the ruling house of Saxony and Poland, have the senior right to the Austrian realms.

thanks.

For clarity, I'm thinking the scenario is:
Joseph dies with 2 surviving daughters
Karl dies no surviving offspring

I guess first order of business is what happens to Spain when Joseph dies (presumably prior to Karl). If we stipulate that Karl has somehow managed to hold both thrones, would not Joseph's daughters be the heir to Austria per the Mutual Pact of Succession? Don't they also have a right of succession in Spain through the same bloodline that got Karl (Carlos III) on the Spanish throne? That claim would be superseded by the males in the line (Bourbons and Savoy), but possession is 9/10's of the law and already holding the throne gives these Habsburg daughters the inside track. The same forces that allowed Karl to hold both thrones, would keep a Joseph daughter there. I would guess this would be a tough row to hoe, as the Bourbons are going to howl quite loudly, and not sure Karl would be as energetic in securing succession for a niece as he was his own daughter.

 

[GenghisKhanfan]

The Habsburgs OTL had an emergency plan for this: Austria and the HRE would go to Bavaria. If Carlos III has no children then that plan will be followed through and either some distant Wittelsbach cousin would get the Spanish throne or, more likely, the Bourbons will succeed in their second play for Spain.

Never knew about the backup plan.
But wouldnt there be some surviving Hapsburgs who would at some point in the future contest Wettin rule over Austria?

 

[Malaise]

I guess first order of business is what happens to Spain when Joseph dies (presumably prior to Karl). If we stipulate that Karl has somehow managed to hold both thrones, would not Joseph's daughters be the heir to Austria per the Mutual Pact of Succession? Don't they also have a right of succession in Spain through the same bloodline that got Karl (Carlos III) on the Spanish throne? That claim would be superseded by the males in the line (Bourbons and Savoy), but possession is 9/10's of the law and already holding the throne gives these Habsburg daughters the inside track. The same forces that allowed Karl to hold both thrones, would keep a Joseph daughter there. I would guess this would be a tough row to hoe, as the Bourbons are going to howl quite loudly, and not sure Karl would be as energetic in securing succession for a niece as he was his own daughter.

OTL (and most likely to happen in this TL) Karl VI matched his nieces with Saxony and Bavaria because they were traditional rivals that weren't likely to work together to divide Austria. Austria was acknowledged as lost to the Habsburgs if Karl VI didn't have a son but this was made with the expectation that he would be King of Spain. OTL because all Karl had was Austria he was much more motivated to keep those realms in his family's hands. In this TL Spain would soften the blow and would help Karl VI/Carlos III accept the provisions of the pact. If he fails to have any children however then there really isn't any option but the Bourbons on the Spanish throne. Maybe a big succession war will break out at the same time as an Austrian succession war where the maritime powers' aim isn't to prevent a Bourbon Spain but to cripple and nibble at the kingdom in order to keep the Bourbons weak. However they might not be too successful considering that the Treaty of London strengthened France considerably and gave it a few precious years of peace and growth, not to mention that Spain won't be divided in a civil war between the Austracistas and the Borbónicos this time around. The succession issue would coincide with a Bavarian-Saxon war over Austria which opens up a whole other bunch of possibilities and WIs.

 

[Malaise]

Never knew about the backup plan.
But wouldnt there be some surviving Hapsburgs who would at some point in the future contest Wettin rule over Austria?

If we're talking about Carlos III not having children...then I think that's it for the House of Habsburg. The only ones that can contest the Wettin claim are the Wittelsbach.

 

[unprincipled peter]

OTL (and most likely to happen in this TL) Karl VI matched his nieces with Saxony and Bavaria because they were traditional rivals that weren't likely to work together to divide Austria. Austria was acknowledged as lost to the Habsburgs if Karl VI didn't have a son but this was made with the expectation that he would be King of Spain. OTL because all Karl had was Austria he was much more motivated to keep those realms in his family's hands. In this TL Spain would soften the blow and would help Karl VI/Carlos III accept the provisions of the pact. If he fails to have any children however then there really isn't any option but the Bourbons on the Spanish throne. Maybe a big succession war will break out at the same time as an Austrian succession war where the maritime powers' aim isn't to prevent a Bourbon Spain but to cripple and nibble at the kingdom in order to keep the Bourbons weak. However they might not be too successful considering that the Treaty of London strengthened France considerably and gave it a few precious years of peace and growth, not to mention that Spain won't be divided in a civil war between the Austracistas and the Borbónicos this time around. The succession issue would coincide with a Bavarian-Saxon war over Austria which opens up a whole other bunch of possibilities and WIs.

the 1703 pact of succession specified that in the absence of sons from either Joseph or Charles, rule would go to Joseph's daughters, or, if there are none of them available, to Charles' daughters. the 1713 pragmatic sanction reversed this, putting Charles' daughters (as yet unborn) first. IF no sons are in the picture, a marriage match for the first in line daughter is going to be like the OTL one for Maria Theresa, where the groom is of a lesser house, and the ruler is going to be the daughter with a new house created (OTL it was Habsburg-Lorraine). The realms would not merge, but rather be joined in personal union when the daughter's offspring takes the reigns. There's no guarantee the husband will be heir to any throne on his own. This is different than losing Austria to a foreign house. the name may change, but the bloodline is descended from the loins of the Austrian ruler, in this case Joseph.

 

[Malaise]

the 1703 pact of succession specified that in the absence of sons from either Joseph or Charles, rule would go to Joseph's daughters, or, if there are none of them available, to Charles' daughters. the 1713 pragmatic sanction reversed this, putting Charles' daughters (as yet unborn) first. IF no sons are in the picture, a marriage match for the first in line daughter is going to be like the OTL one for Maria Theresa, where the groom is of a lesser house, and the ruler is going to be the daughter with a new house created (OTL it was Habsburg-Lorraine). The realms would not merge, but rather be joined in personal union when the daughter's offspring takes the reigns. There's no guarantee the husband will be heir to any throne on his own. This is different than losing Austria to a foreign house. the name may change, but the bloodline is descended from the loins of the Austrian ruler, in this case Joseph.

I see, so we'll get hyphenated Habsburgs on Austria. Would Spain pass to his second niece who'll do the same or will France snatch it (or a part of it) in another succession crisis?

 

[unprincipled peter]

I see, so we'll get hyphenated Habsburgs on Austria. Would Spain pass to his second niece who'll do the same or will France snatch it (or a part of it) in another succession crisis?

I think France will snatch it, or attempt to. We don't know the state of the world, or when this death would be.

If it is while the Joseph daughters are underage, that's a boon for French fortunes. I'm a firm believer that in any POD such as this, the Bourbon deaths in 1711/12 (and possibly/probably 14) are butterflied, leaving a lot of Bourbon candidates. If we allow OTL Bourbon fortunes, the line is really thin.

If it is after OTL Charles death in 1740, then the Habsburg girls are full grown and may have spawned sons who jump the line in Austria. I think they jump the line in Spain, too.

On Charles' death: If his mushroom poisoning were accidental, it likely gets butterflied, as it is unreasonable to think that with this massive POD, he'd still be in the same forest with the same people around him, eating the same meal. If it were an intentional assassination, it might be butterflied (a lot of circumstances have changed, so the faction that killed him may not be around), or he might just be assassinated in some other manner.

Ultimately, we don't know the condition of France. They would have avoided the devastation of the WoSS, and should be in good shape. Or Louis XIV may have gotten involved in some other major war - maybe the Great Northern War - and France is beat up.

We also don't know the condition of Spain or Austria. How did Spain fare under Charles? Did he bungle leaving the country ripe for takeover? Did he do well? Did Joseph live long enough to enact more of his reforms, leaving Austria in good shape to defend it's interests? Or did the reforms backfire, or Charles bungle in Austria?

All we really know is that France will almost certainly want to alter the Habsburg (whatever hyphens it has attached to it) domination of Spain/Austria, and this will provide a good opportunity.

 

[Malaise]

Well changing the subject a bit I still think it would be more interesting if Karl VI/Carlos III's issue was like OTL, with him having two healthy daughters. In this scenario the Austrian realms would be given to his niece while Spain gets Queen María Teresa I (that might not have been her actual name but it's fun to imagine). I think the House of Lorraine as a satellite of the Habsburgs are still the most likely match for for both Carlos III's niece and his daughter, especially since their prestige grew as they now rule the more respectable Duchy of Milan. As for how Karl VI's rulership goes it'll be tough to imagine without the specter of the succession looming over. IOTL he fought a good number of mostly successful wars, fostered large Hispanophilia in Viennese high life, and was an avid patron of the arts, overseeing and encouraging a massive increase in monuments and baroque works in Vienna. IOTL we saw an exodus of Spanish cultural figures flock to Austria but in this TL I think we could see Austrian artists and musicians flock to Spain, especially composers since Karl VI was a very big fan of those. Spain could develop culturally very similarly to Austria with the IOTL Madrid de los Austrias being a much more developed and impressive place. I think the trend seen under Carlos II's reign will continue, with things slowly getting better for Spain. The army, navy, and treasury might not get to Bourbon levels, but hey, I think they could get close.

 

[Malaise]

Oh I also wanted to add that Spain keeping the Southern Netherlands will probably do a good bit of harm. The Belgians had a near monopoly on the production of manafactured goods and textiles in Habsburg Spain. Peninsular Spain's manufacturies probably won't be brought up to levels they were IOTL under the great Bourbons (Felipe V, Fernando VI, Carlos III) if the Spanish can still depend on Belgian goods.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Never knew about the backup plan.
But wouldnt there be some surviving Hapsburgs who would at some point in the future contest Wettin rule over Austria?

Them finding power to contest this is not particularly likely