WI: Charles II of Spain agrees to the Treaty of London (1700)?

[Malaise]

IOTL Charles II refused to entertain any plans of dividing his realm upon his death. This however did not stop the powers of England, the United Provinces, and France from negotiating treaties to divide Spain's territories and avoid a war of succession. The 1700 Treaty of London was the last partition treaty made between the three powers before the death of Charles II. The treaty stipulated that the Archduke Charles (cousin of Charles II I think?), the son of the Holy Roman Emperor Leopold, I would receive the main Spanish inheritance while the Italian territories of Naples, Sicily, Milan, the Presidi, and Finale plus the Iberian territory of Gipuzkoa would be given to France as compensation for not pushing the claims of the House of Bourbon, with the plan being that France would cede Milan to the Duke of Lorraine in exchange for Lorraine proper.

Charles II IOTL rejected this plan and in his final will named Philip Duke of Anjou the heir of all his dominions, thinking that Louis XIV was his best chance of maintaining the integrity of his realm. This ended disastrously for Spain, with the kingdom losing much more than just what was outlined in the treaty, having to cede not just the Italian territories mentioned but also Sardinia, the Spanish Netherlands, Gibraltar, and Menorca, while also having to give the British various trade monopolies in the Indies. Now let's say that instead of leaving it up to God, Charles II decides that it's better not to gamble and agrees to the provisions of the 1700 Treaty of London.

What would the consequences be of continued Habsburg rule over Spain and of continued Spanish rule over the Southern Netherlands, Sardinia, and Gibraltar? What would be France's next move considering that they're the big winners in all of this? France also avoids the first in a string of 18th century defeats if the treaty is upheld. Does Europe avoid a grand war or is a new one right around the corner? Could the precedent set by the Treaty of London make negotiated peace before conflict much more common? How would Spain be different without the wartime reforms made by Philip V (the most prominent being the Nueva Planta decrees)? Would we see a revival of Charles V/I's empire or will Austria be thrown to the Wittelsbachs? I know that Charles II presided over a period of relative peace and prosperity, with his rule being defined by massive deflation, an increase of purchasing power across his realms, a notable lack of famine, and a general uptick in quality of life. Would Spain passing over to the Archduke (this TL's Charles III) quietly and peacefully see a continuation of these positive trends?

Europe before the death of Charles II:
View attachment 699942

Europe after the death of Charles II in this TL:
View attachment 699946

 

[Malaise]

Guess there's something wrong with the images. Posting this TL's 1700 map again and hoping it works.

 

[Malaise]

Alright perfect. And here's Europe in this TL before it diverges from ours.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

View attachment 700326Guess there's something wrong with the images. Posting this TL's 1700 map again and hoping it works.

Explain the justifications behind these changes please?

 

[Malaise]

Explain the justifications behind these changes please?

Well the bit of Spain France got was Gipuzkoa which the French sort of wanted to further control the Bay of Biscay. The French getting Lorraine, was one of their main goals and it's worth more than Milan to them. Naples and Sicily was thrown to the French to make them feel better about giving up on Milan (which they have a historic claim on) and for letting go (for now) of their main objective which is the Southern Netherlands. The Austrians don't gain any territory but they get their guy on the throne.

 

[unprincipled peter]

What would be France's next move considering that they're the big winners in all of this?

OTL, with the benefit of hindsight, France could arguably be considered a big winner with this ATL: no massive destruction/debt, and actual French gains (OTL, they did put a Bourbon on the Spanish throne, but then cozied up more to Britain than Spain). In real time, though, the optics would be that France got crumbs, while Austria got the bulk of the Empire.

France could have been the big winners IF Louis XIV stuck to the plan and accepted Philip on the Spanish throne with grace. Britain (and hence, Dutch Republic) was on the verge of accepting an undivided Empire under Philip, but French diplomacy antagonized everyone to coalesce against the Bourbons. That's not the POD, though.

In this ATL, Austria will play the part of diplomatic bellicosity. Leopold insisted everything belonged to the Habsburgs. Austria would, as they did OTL, send troops into Milan and look to secure the Italian region, forcing France to engage in combat. Logically, Britain and DR would remain neutral, as the division is desired. However, we're in a period where the norm is for the world to oppose France. I can easily see Britain backing Austria, even if they don't outright declare war on France. This puts France in a difficult position. They don't have the advantages enjoyed OTL. Leaving it just between Austria and France, France wins easily. IF Britain proves too much a fly in the ointment, France may opt to throw the grenade across the channel, and try for a Stuart Restoration. This alt WoSS could end up just as messy as OTL, although the script is much different.

Britain may opt to remain neutral, with benevolent encouragement/help to Austria. France will win, but why make it easy for them?

Austria may be quickly forced to back off if Britain stays out or sides with France. Britain isn't likely to actively join France, but diplomatic pressure could make it obvious Austria isn't going to have the coalition it needs to win.

I doubt a partition goes off without a hitch, though.

IF we assume no hitch, or a minor war which effects the partition as envisioned, we see: A strong France. A weak Spain, continuing to remain decentralized, with a lackluster King. 18th century is completely rewritten. No War of Quadruple Alliance. OTL War of Austrian Succession is butterflied (it may be replaced by an alt one). Rather than list every war, just assume all are different, butterflied, or different ones arise. Everything is a blank page with the only rule being you can't duplicate OTL. You can't assume OTL deaths and births. The Bourbon die-off of 1711/12 almost certainly is butterflied. The smallpox epidemic which claims Joseph I of Austria may not occur. Carlos III may sire sons. Frederick the great may not be born.

 

[unprincipled peter]

ATL, with Spain being a foe, the Spanish Empire is now available for France to cast covetous eyes upon.

 

[Malaise]

OTL War of Austrian Succession is butterflied (it may be replaced by an alt one)

Really? Won't we get an even messier one considering that Carlos III (our Karl VI) is still going to end up inheriting Austria? Combine that with the possibility that Carlos III (our Karl VI) only sires female children and we get quite the mess.

We have four possible options:

1. Carlos III has multiple sons or one son and at least one daughter. If this happens he can divide Spain and Austria between his children, even if he only has one son as the Spanish crown allows female inheritance. This is the ideal scenario for him.

2. Carlos III has only one son. This one will be tricky. I think we'll get a big Habsburg vs the world war (unless France does something to really piss the maritime powers off) to maintain his realms.

3. Carlos III has at least one daughter and no sons. This forces him to abandon Austria and the HRE to Bavaria. A serious blow to the Habsburgs.

4. Carlos III has no surviving children. This could change up Europe's borders as much as the Treaty of Versailles. This is the wild card possibility.

 

[Vitruvius]

IF we assume no hitch, or a minor war which effects the partition as envisioned, we see: A strong France. A weak Spain, continuing to remain decentralized, with a lackluster King. 18th century is completely rewritten. No War of Quadruple Alliance. OTL War of Austrian Succession is butterflied (it may be replaced by an alt one). Rather than list every war, just assume all are different, butterflied, or different ones arise. Everything is a blank page with the only rule being you can't duplicate OTL. You can't assume OTL deaths and births. The Bourbon die-off of 1711/12 almost certainly is butterflied. The smallpox epidemic which claims Joseph I of Austria may not occur. Carlos III may sire sons. Frederick the great may not be born.

Definitely a weak Spain. Without reforms Spain can't defend itself and becomes dependent upon the maritime powers. The Spanish Netherlands will essentially be a Dutch protectorate while the Spanish Americas are dominated by English commerce. The Habsburgs better pray that Joseph I lives longer and Charles has multiple sons because it would be impossible to govern Spain remotely from Vienna. Not only is Castile too big to run with a Viceroy but the French control southern Italy cutting communication lines between Austria and Spain.

Another near term flashpoint may be Mantua. If Ferdinando Carlo dies childless the Duchies of Mantova and Monferrato should go to the new Dukes of Milan of the House of Lorraine but I imagine that Savoy will try to claim Monferrato with French backing. Also simmering is the succession to Parma (if the Farnese still die out) and Tuscany (where the Medici are almost guaranteed to die out). The Italian states will now fear French aggrandizement and the Austrians will be desperate to secure Italian allies to keep the French from dominating the central Mediterranean and cutting them off from Spain. So Italy will likely be a source of conflict one way or the other.

1. Carlos III has multiple sons or one son and at least one daughter. If this happens he can divide Spain and Austria between his children, even if he only has one son as the Spanish crown allows female inheritance. This is the ideal scenario for him.

2. Carlos III has only one son. This one will be tricky. I think we'll get a big Habsburg vs the world war (unless France does something to really piss the maritime powers off) to maintain his realms.

3. Carlos III has at least one daughter and no sons. This forces him to abandon Austria and the HRE to Bavaria. A serious blow to the Habsburgs.

4. Carlos III has no surviving children. This could change up Europe's borders as much as the Treaty of Versailles. This is the wild card possibility.

Personally I think #3 would be best for everyone. If Joseph lives longer and has daughters but realizes that his brother also only has daughters then they can just honor the Mutual Succession Pact their father drew up. Austria goes to Joseph's daughter whom he marries to a German prince, probably the Elector of Bavaria who then becomes Emperor and Spain goes to Charles' daughter whom he marries probably to an Italian prince or maybe a minor German prince who is willing to relocate to Spain.
The two branches then go their separate ways. The Austrians are reinforced by new German territories and Spain is the English problem to defend against France.

I agree #4 would have huge consequences. It is probably the worst, or at least would cause the most conflict. I could imagine a scenario where Spain and southern Italy are reunited under a Bourbon while the Spanish Netherlands go to one of Joseph's daughters but only after much fighting. So similar to the OTL outcome to the War of Spanish Succession.

 

[Malaise]

Definitely a weak Spain. Without reforms Spain can't defend itself and becomes dependent upon the maritime powers. The Spanish Netherlands will essentially be a Dutch protectorate while the Spanish Americas are dominated by English commerce.

Well it's not like reforms are entirely out of the question. Carlos III/Karl VI's own daughter was an avid reformer and his own grandson, Joseph II, was absolutely infatuated with the enlightenment. I know butterflies and all that but Castille was already one of Europe's most centralized crowns and it's a great starting point for further reform if a ruler wishes to take his realm into that direction.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Really? Won't we get an even messier one considering that Carlos III (our Karl VI) is still going to end up inheriting Austria? Combine that with the possibility that Carlos III (our Karl VI) only sires female children and we get quite the mess.

We have four possible options:

1. Carlos III has multiple sons or one son and at least one daughter. If this happens he can divide Spain and Austria between his children, even if he only has one son as the Spanish crown allows female inheritance. This is the ideal scenario for him.

2. Carlos III has only one son. This one will be tricky. I think we'll get a big Habsburg vs the world war (unless France does something to really piss the maritime powers off) to maintain his realms.

3. Carlos III has at least one daughter and no sons. This forces him to abandon Austria and the HRE to Bavaria. A serious blow to the Habsburgs.

4. Carlos III has no surviving children. This could change up Europe's borders as much as the Treaty of Versailles. This is the wild card possibility.

Union of Spain and Austria is not going to happen. Absolutely no one, aside from the guy who would be grand King, wants this. Definitely not the French. Right behind them are the British, the Dutch, and quite likely the Spanish/Austrian subjects who will object to being ruled from Austria, or putting the shoe on the other foot, Spain. Any attempt to unify the crowns of Austria and Spain will be met by a major war to prevent this.

There are daughters from Joseph (one born immediately before POD, one just after). Austria prevents one from ascending the Austrian throne, but Spain allows females to wear the crown. If Charles has surviving offspring, male or female, one (or perhaps Joseph's daughters) can take Spain, while Carlos transitions to Austria. Or the pragmatic sanction kicks in and a female takes Austria.

IF war happens, you may end up with a Bourbon on the Spanish throne.

 

[Malaise]

Union of Spain and Austria is not going to happen.

Never say never. I think if France becomes too dominating then the maritime powers might see Austria-Spain as their best chance for a counterweight.

 

[Malaise]

Definitely a weak Spain. Without reforms Spain can't defend itself and becomes dependent upon the maritime powers. The Spanish Netherlands will essentially be a Dutch protectorate while the Spanish Americas are dominated by English commerce.

A Spain surviving as little more than a protectorate of the maritime powers might see its empire, or a big chunk of it, taken from it much sooner. But I don't know, it's not like avoiding the War of the Spanish Succession halts the enlightenment. I think an heir to Carlos III might become quite fond of the Sun King and seek to emulate his reforms. It would take a string of apathetic monarchs to keep Spain the wet paper bag Rocroi left it.

 

[Vinization]

An independent Milan in this time period would be profoundly fascinating.

 

[Malaise]

An independent Milan in this time period would be profoundly fascinating.

Well it's meant to be an Austrian satellite but if things go south in Vienna then things could get interesting.

 

[Malaise]

I think if France becomes too dominating then the maritime powers might see Austria-Spain as their best chance for a counterweight.

Talking about this point, would Austria-Spain even be able to compete with France in this TL? Spain is broken and Austria is a relic.

 

[MiniaAr]

If the POD settles with those borders, wouldn't it make sense for France to try all they can to exchange Naples/Sicily for the Spanish Netherlands?

Britain and the Netherlands will of course object but if Spain is onside and Austria might be elsewhere occupied (for example during an alt War of Austrian succession) can this be achieved?

 

[Vanity 6]

I think the 1700 treaty is better than Utrecht for multiple parties.

Both the French and Dutch were totally sapped by the war and this will be avoided.

France will have achieved some long term goals of annexing Lorraine, Nice and Savoy.
The Duke of Savoy will raise his profile as King of Naples and Sicily.

Austria will have indirect control of Milan which they very much wanted. They will get to apply their energies to integrating Hungary instead of fighting all over Europe. Sure they won’t have the Utrecht prizes of Naples and the Spanish Netherlands but those were headaches anyway.

Spain remains Habsburg but it bouncing back as a power as it did OTL is not out of the question.
The relative loser here may be Britain. With a strong France on the continent, it has not pulled as far ahead of the pack as it did after Utrecht.

Can Louis resist another war before he dies? Would he interfere in the Northern War? Take another grab at the Spanish Netherlands?

One last thing. Many deaths births and may be altered. Joseph? The various French princes. Gender and number of children of Joseph and Charles of Habsburg.

 

[Malaise]

If the POD settles with those borders, wouldn't it make sense for France to try all they can to exchange Naples/Sicily for the Spanish Netherlands?

Britain and the Netherlands will of course object but if Spain is onside and Austria might be elsewhere occupied (for example during an alt War of Austrian succession) can this be achieved?

The Spanish monarchy under the Habsburgs were very proud of its Burgundian connection. The little scrap of land that were the Spanish Netherlands were massively valuable to the prestige and legitimacy of the monarchs (at least that's how those monarchs saw it). I can maybe see the Spanish ceding Luxembourg if they can be compensated with something nice but it'll take a lot for them to give up Flanders and Southern Brabant.

 

[Malaise]

The relative loser here may be Britain. With a strong France on the continent, it has not pulled as far ahead of the pack as it did after Utrecht.

Considering they miss out on Gibraltar and Menorca, and those exclusive rights in the Spanish Indies, the Brits definitely don't win here as much as they did OTL.