WI - Camillo Cavour lives another decade or so

[Masked Grizzly]

In a scenario where Italy gained Corsica in an alternate treaty of Bastia (or in the aftermath of the Napoleonic wars) beforehand, what if Camillo Cavour lived another decade or so and how would it affect the newly proclaimed Kingdom of Italy (and its potential ambitions regarding Italian irredentism) ?

Would he essentially became the Italian equivalent of Bismark as previously mentioned in past threads and to what extent would it open up greater expansion / colonial opportunities for Italy ITTL?

 

[lukedalton]

Well, it's a big big change; the first thing that come in mind is the fact that the Third war of independence or as other know that, the italian side of the Austro-Prussian war will be much much better managed. No rivalry between genenerals regarding the type of plan using and so total lack of coordination, no or at least greatly lessening of royal interference...frankly it's very probable that Cavour will go in supporting the use of the Prussian plan for Italy partecipation .
A much better performance for Italy in the war can give a nice shoot in the arms to italian reputation and influence and maybe getting something more at the negotiation table maybe Trentino or Dalmatia (that with the diplomatic cover that was part of Venice when A-H absorbed that nation and so it's covered by the Italo-German treaty regarding the spoil).
In any case, with Cavour at the helm the newly founded kingdom will not be so diplomatic isolated as OTL and as sure as hell, the Garibaldi attempt to take Rome with a group of volunteers will not happen, frankly is probable that Cavour will try to convince the General to accept Lincoln proposal to enlist in the Union Army, so to better foster the italo-american relationship, fight against slavery...cough leave him do his job in peace cough cough

Regarding the internal politics, well maybe there is a slightly better management of the Southern Question, but i don't really see him making great change there but him being alive and avoiding the continuous change of goverments will mean less time wasted, more credibility and frankly more things done. Especially is project of creating a National Bank, first attempted in 1861 but stopped by the rest of the liberals if the italian army give a good performance in the war, Nappy III attempt to intrude himself in the diplomatic talking is stopped and something more is gained than OTL...there will be no way Cavour not having the political power to create the institution and this mean a lot more of financial stability for Italy compared to OTL

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Well, it's a big big change; the first thing that come in mind is the fact that the Third war of independence or as other know that, the italian side of the Austro-Prussian war will be much much better managed. No rivalry between genenerals regarding the type of plan using and so total lack of coordination, no or at least greatly lessening of royal interference...frankly it's very probable that Cavour will go in supporting the use of the Prussian plan for Italy partecipation .
A much better performance for Italy in the war can give a nice shoot in the arms to italian reputation and influence and maybe getting something more at the negotiation table maybe Trentino or Dalmatia (that with the diplomatic cover that was part of Venice when A-H absorbed that nation and so it's covered by the Italo-German treaty regarding the spoil).
In any case, with Cavour at the helm the newly founded kingdom will not be so diplomatic isolated as OTL and as sure as hell, the Garibaldi attempt to take Rome with a group of volunteers will not happen, frankly is probable that Cavour will try to convince the General to accept Lincoln proposal to enlist in the Union Army, so to better foster the italo-american relationship, fight against slavery...cough leave him do his job in peace cough cough

Regarding the internal politics, well maybe there is a slightly better management of the Southern Question, but i don't really see him making great change there but him being alive and avoiding the continuous change of goverments will mean less time wasted, more credibility and frankly more things done. Especially is project of creating a National Bank, first attempted in 1861 but stopped by the rest of the liberals if the italian army give a good performance in the war, Nappy III attempt to intrude himself in the diplomatic talking is stopped and something more is gained than OTL...there will be no way Cavour not having the political power to create the institution and this mean a lot more of financial stability for Italy compared to OTL

Is that to say Rome would have eventually become part of Italy on its own ITTL, with Italy gaining Trentino and Dalmatia? Would Nice and Savoy be completely out of the question later on along with both Tunisia and Libya?

Had your response to this old thread in mind with regard to how ATL could have evolved had Cavour lived longer. Aside from enhancing Italian-American relations by having Garibaldi accept Lincoln's proposal to enlist in the Union Army during the American Civil War and spread some Italian culture in the US much earlier compared to OTL, what additional benefits would there be for this ATL Italy as far as colonies in Central America, South America or Asia, etc are concerned?

 

[lukedalton]

Is that to say Rome would have eventually become part of Italy on its own ITTL, with Italy gaining Trentino and Dalmatia? Would Nice and Savoy be completely out of the question later on along with both Tunisia and Libya?

Had your response to this old thread in mind with regard to how ATL could have evolved had Cavour lived longer. Aside from enhancing Italian-American relations by having Garibaldi accept Lincoln's proposal to enlist in the Union Army during the American Civil War and spread some Italian culture in the US much earlier compared to OTL, what additional benefits would there be for this ATL Italy as far as colonies in Central America, South America or Asia, etc are concerned?

The Papal states living on borrowing time is a given, the moment France is uncapable to defend them or retaliate they will be conquered by Italy...if there is not a internal revolution as the place was not very stable.
There is the slight possibility that Cavour can convince the French to make the Pope accept an agreement, but it's hardly a given and it will be need a minor miracle.

Nice and Savoy are up to grab only in a case of Italy joining Germany against the French and even in that case, is more probable that Florence (the capital of Italy at the time) will need to chose between one of the two (my bet is for Nice, if only for Garibaldi lobbying for that)...or for the equivalent of WWI, in such case both are for grab.
In case of much better performance in the A-P war, well Italy will get Trento (in OTL Garibaldi was an inch to conquer the city) or Dalmatia not both and some diplomatic skill will be needed to achieve that.

Tunisia will be target number one for the italian colonial effort due to economic, geographic and historical reason...but this can be also said for France and it will be needed the agreement of the Concert of Europe to anybody snatch it; maybe Italy is more succesfull ITTL due to more stable goverment and lesser isolation but honestly is more probable that the best case scenario will be a gentlemen agreement that if French take Tunisia, Italy will get Libya plus some form of protection for the italian population in Tunisia as OTL

Colonies in America is not in the market, unless some is for sell, more for the fact that the British will not be happy of some new players in the zone (as everybody else); better Italo-American relations can mean a better treatment of the italian immigrants there (even if 10 more years of Cavour can butterfly away the reason of the massive Italian diaspora).
Asia is more doable, especially Papua as only the British disagreement stopped this and North Borneo can be obtained if there is more desire of colonial expansion (Cavour will surely support anyone that had such idea) and more importantly if there are enough funds, even a treaty port in China is very possible

 

[Deleted member 147289]

Sorry for the self promotion but I am writing a TL in which Cavour lived until the 1870s, it's called Italico Valore

 

[Masked Grizzly]

The Papal states living on borrowing time is a given, the moment France is uncapable to defend them or retaliate they will be conquered by Italy...if there is not a internal revolution as the place was not very stable.
There is the slight possibility that Cavour can convince the French to make the Pope accept an agreement, but it's hardly a given and it will be need a minor miracle.

Nice and Savoy are up to grab only in a case of Italy joining Germany against the French and even in that case, is more probable that Florence (the capital of Italy at the time) will need to chose between one of the two (my bet is for Nice, if only for Garibaldi lobbying for that)...or for the equivalent of WWI, in such case both are for grab.
In case of much better performance in the A-P war, well Italy will get Trento (in OTL Garibaldi was an inch to conquer the city) or Dalmatia not both and some diplomatic skill will be needed to achieve that.

Tunisia will be target number one for the italian colonial effort due to economic, geographic and historical reason...but this can be also said for France and it will be needed the agreement of the Concert of Europe to anybody snatch it; maybe Italy is more succesfull ITTL due to more stable goverment and lesser isolation but honestly is more probable that the best case scenario will be a gentlemen agreement that if French take Tunisia, Italy will get Libya plus some form of protection for the italian population in Tunisia as OTL

Colonies in America is not in the market, unless some is for sell, more for the fact that the British will not be happy of some new players in the zone (as everybody else); better Italo-American relations can mean a better treatment of the italian immigrants there (even if 10 more years of Cavour can butterfly away the reason of the massive Italian diaspora).
Asia is more doable, especially Papua as only the British disagreement stopped this and North Borneo can be obtained if there is more desire of colonial expansion (Cavour will surely support anyone that had such idea) and more importantly if there are enough funds, even a treaty port in China is very possible

With Italy managing to gain Trento ITTL, would it be accurate to say had some form of WW1 happened that it would be in a position to realise the gains promised in the OTL 1915 Treaty of London?

Was envisioning a more expansionist US giving Nicaragua to Italy in the aftermath of the American Civil War involving Garibaldi's role either as a protectorate or a colony, though it is probably too late by that point apart from an earlier POD by way of a more successful Thornton Expedition (possibly via another location, etc).

What other areas of the Malay Archipelago were plausible gains for Italy? The same with treaty ports in China beyond maybe Zhoushan, etc?

 

[lukedalton]

With Italy managing to gain Trento ITTL, would it be accurate to say had some form of WW1 happened that it would be in a position to realise the gains promised in the OTL 1915 Treaty of London?

Was envisioning a more expansionist US giving Nicaragua to Italy in the aftermath of the American Civil War involving Garibaldi's role either as a protectorate or a colony, though it is probably too late by that point apart from an earlier POD by way of a more successful Thornton Expedition (possibly via another location, etc).

What other areas of the Malay Archipelago were plausible gains for Italy? The same with treaty ports in China beyond maybe Zhoushan, etc?

We are talking of enough butterfly to make such long time prediction difficult without more contest and developement.

Naa, the USA will never be ok with an european nation enstablish another colony in their turf, still better diplomatic relations can mean better economic relations and Italy as always been cash strapped

Papua and North Bornea think were the max possible; the British will really want to limit any new player there, even an attempt at Aceh will be stopped

 

[Plundenoru]

Altough it's not in Asia or the Americas, wasn't there an austrian diplomat who offered to Italy to buy Rio De Oro from Spain after AH declined the same offer? Or am I thinking of something different?

 

[LordKalvan]

We are talking of enough butterfly to make such long time prediction difficult without more contest and developement.

Naa, the USA will never be ok with an european nation enstablish another colony in their turf, still better diplomatic relations can mean better economic relations and Italy as always been cash strapped

Papua and North Bornea think were the max possible; the British will really want to limit any new player there, even an attempt at Aceh will be stopped

Aceh is not at all out of the question, assuming a reasonable relation with the UK.

However, the most important change will be in internal politics: Cavour will never countenance the unholy alliance between the Piedmontese reactionaries and the equally reactionary landowners of Southern Italy, which had such a nefarious impact over the first decade of the Italian kingdom, and besides this is also the only man who can keep VEII under control, and steer Italian politics towards a stronger parliamentarian dominance

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Aceh is not at all out of the question, assuming a reasonable relation with the UK.

However, the most important change will be in internal politics: Cavour will never countenance the unholy alliance between the Piedmontese reactionaries and the equally reactionary landowners of Southern Italy, which had such a nefarious impact over the first decade of the Italian kingdom, and besides this is also the only man who can keep VEII under control, and steer Italian politics towards a stronger parliamentarian dominance

Would Cavour never countenancing the alliance between the Piedmontese reactionaries and Southern Italian landowners have led to the south being better developed / more industrialized ITTL?

 

[LordKalvan]

Would Cavour never countenancing the alliance between the Piedmontese reactionaries and Southern Italian landowners have led to the south being better developed / more industrialized ITTL?

It would certainly support expansive policies and increase industrialization, and it would impart a much more liberal bent to legislation. The results would certainly be better than what happened IOTL, but it is impossible to quantify said results.