WI: Bush 43 dies?

[killertahu22]

To keep things from being distasteful, let’s not kill him in 9/11.

Let’s say he dies in late 2003 of either an assasination or a sickness, it doesn’t really matter for the scenario. Richard Cheney finishes the rest of his term, but declines to run for re-election (they barely convinced him to run for Vice-President).

My question to y’all is: who will win the Republican nomination? Could Colin Powell? Who wins the Democratic nomination? And who wins the election overall.

 

[oberdada]

I tried a similar thread years ago.
It did not go anywhere.
Apparently a Cheney presidency is too much, even for AH.com.

 

[killertahu22]

I tried a similar thread years ago.
It did not go anywhere.
Apparently a Cheney presidency is too much, even for AH.com.

I hoped giving him a lame duck Presidency would encourage talking points

 

[Philip]

I doubt Powell would run, especially if Bush was assassinated. His wife would not permit it.

The easy, default answer for the Republican nomination is McCain. Kerry might still win the Democratic nomination. This could be greatly effected if Bush was assassinated and how the country reacts.

 

[killertahu22]

I doubt Powell would run, especially if Bush was assassinated. His wife would not permit it.

The easy, default answer for the Republican nomination is McCain. Kerry might still win the Democratic nomination. This could be greatly effected if Bush was assassinated and how the country reacts.

Ok, let's say he is assassinated by an anti-war advocate.

 

[King_Arthur]

Ok, let's say he is assassinated by an anti-war advocate.

Then extreme reaction. We're looking at McCarthyism level stuff here. I wouldn't rule out vigilante killings. McCain will sweep the nomination. I can't remember Kerry's position on Iraq, but if he is against it then he's a no-hoper. I could see Clinton having a chance. Either way it's gonna be 1964 redux.

 

[killertahu22]

Then extreme reaction. We're looking at McCarthyism level stuff here. I wouldn't rule out vigilante killings. McCain will sweep the nomination. I can't remember Kerry's position on Iraq, but if he is against it then he's a no-hoper. I could see Clinton having a chance. Either way it's gonna be 1964 redux.

So McCain wins?

 

[Philip]

Ok, let's say he is assassinated by an anti-war advocate.

This is going to be ugly.

I can't remember Kerry's position on Iraq, but if he is against it then he's a no-hoper.

Kerry's position on the Iraq war was a bit muddled (at least as presented in the media). He voted to authorize the invasion, but was highly critical of how it was executed. Often that criticism could be presented as criticism of the military. Combined with his post Vietnam activism, I can't see him winning the nomination. It might be enough that he doesn't run.

 

[killertahu22]

This is going to be ugly.


Kerry's position on the Iraq war was a bit muddled (at least as presented in the media). He voted to authorize the invasion, but was highly critical of how it was executed. Often that criticism could be presented as criticism of the military. Combined with his post Vietnam activism, I can't see him winning the nomination. It might be enough that he doesn't run.

Who, then? Not Gore, right?

 

[King_Arthur]

Who, then? Not Gore, right?

If he was assassinated by a protestor, then John Calhoun's corpse will do better than Gore.

 

[King_Arthur]

So McCain wins?

Yes. In a Johnson-slide.

 

[Philip]

So McCain wins?

Probably. I'm trying to decide how the Democratic candidate would campaign. I imagine the debate about a lone wolf verses a radicalized 'peace' movement would be critical. It would take a skillful politician to keep the left wing happy while trying to convince the center that they will defeat the 'domestic terrorist pacifists'. I feel like many top possibilities would decide to sit this election out.

 

[RepMR]

I think Cheney would be encouraged to, and accept, running in 2004. Particularly because Iraq and Afghanistan would be in full flow.

 

[killertahu22]

I think Cheney would be encouraged to, and accept, running in 2004. Particularly because Iraq and Afghanistan would be in full flow.

He was a very uninterested man in 2000 with a history of health issues, are you sure he'd run?

 

[TheCoolCucumber]

If you want to move the date up a bit he could always die because he choked on that pretzel. That was in early 2002.

 

[Zheng He]

Cheney doesn't run and McCain gets the nomination easily if for no other reason than the Republican party had something of a track record of nominating the previous primary's second fiddle because it was "his turn" (Dole in 96, McCain in 08, Romney in 12).

 

[RepMR]

He was a very uninterested man in 2000 with a history of health issues, are you sure he'd run?

Yes, because by the POD of late 2003 I imagine the GOP would want to avoid a hasty, contentious primary.

 

[creighton]

I can't remember Kerry's position on Iraq, but if he is against it then he's a no-hoper. I could see Clinton having a chance. Either way it's gonna be 1964 redux.

No worries, at times it seemed like John Kerry couldn’t remember John Kerry’s position on Iraq.

 

[Zheng He]

No worries, at times it seemed like John Kerry couldn’t remember John Kerry’s position on Iraq.

Seth Myers did a great SNL skit about that...

 

[Deleted member 16736]

Seth Myers did a great SNL skit about that...

The Bush/Kerry townhall debate sketch was one of the funniest things Myers ever did on SNL. I'll never forget him as John Kerry droning about his military decorations "A bronze star, a silver star, and three. purple. hearts."

Back in topic: If the order of presidents is Bush, Clinton, Bush, Cheney, Other Republican, then I think Hillary benefits immensely when she runs in 2008 as one of the knocks against her was the concern that were only electing the same two families to the White House over and over.

As far as 2004, I think a hawkish Democrat would have the upper hand if Bush were assassinated by a domestic terrorist the year before. Joe Lieberman would be a possibility in a field devoid of big names or real challengers.