WI: Britain Joins The Spanish-Portuguese War (1776)

[PGSBHurricane]

In our timeline, the Spanish-Portuguese War was fought between 1776 and 1777 over the territorial borders of their colonial possessions in South America more or less a border war between their colonial possessions in South America (generally stretching from the Rio de La Plata to southern Brazil). Having been on the less favorable side at the end, Portugal was so disappointed by a lack of a British intervention on their behalf that they ultimately joined the League of Armed Neutrality instead of joining their British Allies in the American Revolutionary War. Granted, the ARW was the primary reason the British didn’t join in some capacity to help Portugal.

So, in the event the American Revolutionary War is prevented completely or crushed in its infancy, what if Britain did intervene in favor of Portugal? Does France jump on Spain’s side, potentially starting an alt-Anglo French War? More importantly, how different would South America look? I ask because Latin American history is something I would like to improve my knowledge on and this is relevant to something I might be planning out in the future.

 

[holycookie]

Does France jump on Spain’s side, potentially starting an alt-Anglo French War?

Perhaps, as a whole, France had a war with England every few decades. This will depend on how much money the French crown will have in the period.

More importantly, how different would South America look? I ask because Latin American history is something I would like to improve my knowledge on and this is relevant to something I might be planning out in the future.

If Portugal wins the dispute with some difficulty, it will switch from OTL Uruguay to OTL Entre Rios. if Spain wins they hold uruguay. (If France enters the war, there is a possibility that they will lose French Guyana to Portugal or England.)
How the new dispute in South America will be, the disputed area may be larger depending on how big the war will be. If it is a gigantic war, there is a chance that a good part of the Viceroyalty of La Plata will be transferred to Portugal.If it's a smaller scale war probably something like on the map. If it is bigger, the region in red goes to Portugal too.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

Perhaps, as a whole, France had a war with England every few decades. This will depend on how much money the French crown will have in the period.

If Portugal wins the dispute with some difficulty, it will switch from OTL Uruguay to OTL Entre Rios. if Spain wins they hold uruguay. (If France enters the war, there is a possibility that they will lose French Guyana to Portugal or England.)
How the new dispute in South America will be, the disputed area may be larger depending on how big the war will be. If it is a gigantic war, there is a chance that a good part of the Viceroyalty of La Plata will be transferred to Portugal.If it's a smaller scale war probably something like on the map. If it is bigger, the region in red goes to Portugal too.
View attachment 830564

What do you mean switch from OTL Uruguay to OTL Entre Rios? That kind of confuses me. Also, how do you think the war would have gone if Britain entered in late 1776/early 1777 and France entered later that same year? I kind of forgot the specifics for this scenario. That would be helpful in explaining how Portugal and Spain were to win like you described above.

 

[holycookie]

What do you mean switch from OTL Uruguay to OTL Entre Rios? That kind of confuses me.

Basically there is a change in the area that would be disputed by the Spanish and Portuguese. If Portugal wins the war, the country secures the OTL region in Uruguay (Cisplatina) and will start to dispute the Entre Rios region (the region in red on the map) with Spain.

Also, how do you think the war would have gone if Britain entered in late 1776/early 1777 and France entered later that same year? I kind of forgot the specifics for this scenario.

the scale will be bigger, the problem of france at the moment is monetary more than anything else and the british already have a much stronger navy than france. Perhaps they will dispute what is left of the French empire, with England taking some islands and Spanish territories. It's hard to say but the bigger the war the bigger the gains have to be.

That would be helpful in explaining how Portugal and Spain were to win like you described above.

The Spanish-Portuguese War was a series of conflicts between Portuguese and Spanish forces, in the Banda Oriental, from 1774, which evolved into a war between the years 1776 and 1777. It was a dispute for the eastern band. The war resulted in the retaking of Rio Grande do Sul by the Portuguese and the definitive conquest of Colonia do Sacramento by the Spaniards. The Portuguese expected that England would enter the war, but this did not happen, basically generating a tie with Portugal losing its colony in Uruguay to the Spaniards but securing Rio Grande do Sul. The entry into the war of the English in my opinion ensured the Portuguese victory, France in that period needed less war and more reforms. if the country is smart they don't enter the war and remain neutral by reforming (preventing the french revolution maybe). If not, well most of the war will be at sea with france likely losing.

 

[Daylight Savings]

What does England seek in victory if they join? Do they look for an indemnity or to snatch some Spanish colonies?

 

[PGSBHurricane]

What does England seek in victory if they join? Do they look for an indemnity or to snatch some Spanish colonies?

Probably a combination of the above but I think Britain was bound by treaty to help Portugal regardless.

 

[Daylight Savings]

Probably a combination of the above but I think Britain was bound by treaty to help Portugal regardless.

Sure and that might even be enough to get them into the war. But it's hard to believe a victorious Britain just salutes, says "it's been an honor", and leaves.

 

[Taunay]

Sure and that might even be enough to get them into the war. But it's hard to believe a victorious Britain just salutes, says "it's been an honor", and leaves.

They probably would ask for trade concessions from the Spanish, especially opening up Buenos Aires to British goods. Whether Spain would accept that it's another story

 

[Daylight Savings]

They probably would ask for trade concessions from the Spanish, especially opening up Buenos Aires to British goods. Whether Spain would accept that it's another story

If we're assuming one of the reasons for entry would be the lack or failure of the American Revolution, then I'd imagine Florida might be a target too, just to secure those borders.

 

[Northstar]

France and Spain are already supporting the Americans in their war against Britain during this time period, so I could maybe see the American War of Independence merging with this conflict.

Regards,

Northstar

 

[how]

What does England seek in victory if they join? Do they look for an indemnity or to snatch some Spanish colonies?

The intendency of Buenos Aires and the de Jure claim to Patagonia?

 

[PGSBHurricane]

The intendency of Buenos Aires and the de Jure claim to Patagonia?

Was Britain actively pursuing both of these objectives yet?

 

[PGSBHurricane]

@holycookie How likely would France losing French Guiana to Brazil be if there's a possibility?

 

[Viriato]

At the time the Portuguese government seemed to hope that the British would take over Buenos Aires in order to act as as a buffer between Spanish and Portuguese America.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Would Britain actually come to the aid of Portugal? They weren't known for jumping in to aid its very junior ally. I'm thinking Britain stays home. However, accepting entry as a given...

Spain and France had been building up to a rematch with Britain. Together, their navies rivaled Britain's. A few years earlier, during the Falklands Crisis, Spain wanted to go at it with Britain, but France wouldn't back them. Now, France may be forced to back Spain, or they lose an ally and more ground, worldwide, to Britain.

Look for encouragement to the rebels in North America to resume the revolution. Naval equality means Britain will need to keep a large part of their resources home to hedge against invasion. Britain will not be able to impose its will globally.

The emphasis quickly leaves the cisplatine region, and the war becomes European/Iberian. Remember, just about everyone hated Britain at the time.

Would Spain insist on making Gibraltar a central focus as they did during the ARW? I'm thinking not. First, France had to agree to it in order to get Spain to join them. Here, it is Spain doing the begging to get France on board. Second, there are more pressing needs. This frees up resources to throw at Britain.

OTL, Spain was somewhat reserved in their effort in the war, except in Gibraltar. Here, they're in it up to their eyeballs.

My guess is a resumption of the ARW, and a stalemate globally. Theaters/Battles will be different, but I envision Britain losing ground globally, while France/Spain pays a high cost for it.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

Would Britain actually come to the aid of Portugal? They weren't known for jumping in to aid its very junior ally. I'm thinking Britain stays home. However, accepting entry as a given...

Spain and France had been building up to a rematch with Britain. Together, their navies rivaled Britain's. A few years earlier, during the Falklands Crisis, Spain wanted to go at it with Britain, but France wouldn't back them. Now, France may be forced to back Spain, or they lose an ally and more ground, worldwide, to Britain.

Look for encouragement to the rebels in North America to resume the revolution. Naval equality means Britain will need to keep a large part of their resources home to hedge against invasion. Britain will not be able to impose its will globally.

The emphasis quickly leaves the cisplatine region, and the war becomes European/Iberian. Remember, just about everyone hated Britain at the time.

Would Spain insist on making Gibraltar a central focus as they did during the ARW? I'm thinking not. First, France had to agree to it in order to get Spain to join them. Here, it is Spain doing the begging to get France on board. Second, there are more pressing needs. This frees up resources to throw at Britain.

OTL, Spain was somewhat reserved in their effort in the war, except in Gibraltar. Here, they're in it up to their eyeballs.

My guess is a resumption of the ARW, and a stalemate globally. Theaters/Battles will be different, but I envision Britain losing ground globally, while France/Spain pays a high cost for it.

Again, the ARW is defeated early on here or is averted completely (the POD here) so it wouldn’t resume at all. That might impact your scenario somewhat.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Again, the ARW is defeated early on here or is averted completely (the POD here) so it wouldn’t resume at all. That might impact your scenario somewhat.

There's still going to be some sort of discontent which can be encouraged. I understand your stipulation that the North America situation is resolved enough that Britain is freed up to intervene in the Portugal/Spain conflict. But short of hand wavium magic, the colonies are going to be an area that Britain will be engaged in to some degree. It might be just having to keep troops stationed to maintain a peace.

My point isn't that the ARW needs to flare up full fledged. Just that it is a theater that might be used to distract Britain/consume resources. Not necessarily a big theater as in the French and Indian/7YW, or ARW. Or, the gods might be smiling and the colonies stay loyally content, or even provide resources. It'd be nice for Spain/France if it was the former, but not ultimately necessary.

 

[unprincipled peter]

There's also the possibility that Spain isn't so bellicose with Britain free to get involved. I know that isn't the point of the OP, but it is a possible butterfly from the POD. I'm going with the scenario that as long as Spain/Portugal conflict remains colonial, as OTL, things shake out as OTL, with it being a Spain vs Portugal colonial affair. This will piss off Portugal, and they'll hold it against Britain for whenever Britain might call on them. Ultimately, Portugal has, as OTL, little choice but to ally with Britain. They might find the differences with Spain settled, albeit not in their favor, and cozy up to France/Spain orbit, but otherwise, they're stuck with Britain. Again, that isn't the OP setup, so I'll go with the scenario of a major war sparking up with it being Britain/Portugal against the western world (the whole world won't be active, but they'll be at least benevolently neutral favoring Spain/France). Britain ultimately will lose ground a little, but overall it'll be a lot of wasted effort on both sides.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

There's still going to be some sort of discontent which can be encouraged. I understand your stipulation that the North America situation is resolved enough that Britain is freed up to intervene in the Portugal/Spain conflict. But short of hand wavium magic, the colonies are going to be an area that Britain will be engaged in to some degree. It might be just having to keep troops stationed to maintain a peace.

My point isn't that the ARW needs to flare up full fledged. Just that it is a theater that might be used to distract Britain/consume resources. Not necessarily a big theater as in the French and Indian/7YW, or ARW. Or, the gods might be smiling and the colonies stay loyally content, or even provide resources. It'd be nice for Spain/France if it was the former, but not ultimately necessary.

To be fair I was leaning more towards the Thirteen colonies being crushed early on and by British intervention I more so mean sending money, ships, and other supplies. I agree troops would be needed to hold down the Thirteen colonies under British occupation, hence I think relatively few troops would be sent to South America.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

If Portugal wins the dispute with some difficulty, it will switch from OTL Uruguay to OTL Entre Rios. if Spain wins they hold uruguay. (If France enters the war, there is a possibility that they will lose French Guyana to Portugal or England.)
How the new dispute in South America will be, the disputed area may be larger depending on how big the war will be. If it is a gigantic war, there is a chance that a good part of the Viceroyalty of La Plata will be transferred to Portugal.If it's a smaller scale war probably something like on the map. If it is bigger, the region in red goes to Portugal too.
View attachment 830564

Would all this territory be in play in 1776-77? though? I can agree Portugal would fair better, assuming Britain would be willing to help at some points (potentially defending/taking back Santa Catarina Island from Spain). But all of Uruguay? And possibly Entre Rios and large parts of the Viceroyalty of Rio de la Plata? I did a little more research and perhaps the most notable change would be Portugal keeping its African territories? I could be wrong and more land could be at play though, especially if France joins in as a response to Britain jumping in.