WI: Britain backs Japan in 1905

[Salvare7097]

What if Britain decides after the Russo-Japanese War to back Japan in peace negotiations? Ultimately, Britain's alliance with Japan was intend to check Russian ambitions in the Far East, and Britain acts on the grounds that giving Japan Karafuto and Kuril would help check just those ambitions. Ultimately Japan gains Karafuto and Kuril, along with heavy indemnity. What would this change?

 

[czareason]

What if Britain decides after the Russo-Japanese War to back Japan in peace negotiations? Ultimately, Britain's alliance with Japan was intend to check Russian ambitions in the Far East, and Britain acts on the grounds that giving Japan Karafuto and Kuril would help check just those ambitions. Ultimately Japan gains Karafuto and Kuril, along with heavy indemnity. What would this change?

The Russian Empire would remember this and during the Great War it would make a separate peace with the Central Powers before the Tsar was overthrown.

 

[ahmedali]

For this to happen, the Dogger Bank incident must escalate dramatically to the point that the United Kingdom declares war on Russia, and here the Germans will join the British.


And France, which is in a very bad situation, that if they declare war on the Germans, they will be crushed, and if they do not, the Russians will feel betrayed and will not help the French again.


And they will do option number two because they don't want Britain with the Germans


(Kaiser Wilhelm II is very happy that his perfect war has occurred, but he may feel deceived if it ends up in the British favour.)


The war would end with all of Sakhalin being given to Japan, Korea a British protectorate, the independence of the Central Asian Khanate, and British protectorates like Afghanistan.


(Never think that the British will not try to make a peace that benefits them in the first place and will leave the Japanese and the Russians feeling fools)


The Germans will demand the independence of Poland


(I don't see Baltic Lithuania and Finland becoming independent because the Germans weren't as strong in 1905 compared to 1914)


Romania may join to take Bessarabia (Romanian King Carol I, a pro-German, would persuade the Francophone Romanian elite if France remained neutral to join in taking Bessarabia)


The Ottomans may join in to avenge 1878


(I see Abdul Hamid II wanting to restore Kars and abolish the Emirate of Bulgaria and expel Ferdinand and reintegrate it into the Ottoman Empire with the annexation of Montenegro and Serbia with Austrian permission, with the borders with Greece remaining in the status quo, being British puppets)


If the attempt to assassinate him continues in 1905 and succeeds this time, we may see a second early constitutional era in the Ottoman Empire with time for Ottoman democracy to establish itself better than OTL.


The revolution of 1905 will continue to happen, but with the explosion of things strongly in the face of Nicholas II, the shattering of his tyrannical ideals, and a severe injury to the black eye of the British.


He would bow down to become a constitutional monarch or would abdicate (mostly) to his brother Mikhail II, leading to a successful transition to a constitutional monarchy (the abolition of the Russian monarchy is quite unlikely in 1905).


I think the First World War will still happen and the Russians and the British will ally themselves again, but you have an independent Poland, a member of the Entente, and Russia is doing better because they learn the lessons of war the hard way.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

Couple of things to unpack here:

For this to happen, the Dogger Bank incident must escalate dramatically to the point that the United Kingdom declares war on Russia, and here the Germans will join the British.


And France, which is in a very bad situation, that if they declare war on the Germans, they will be crushed, and if they do not, the Russians will feel betrayed and will not help the French again.


And they will do option number two because they don't want Britain with the Germans


(Kaiser Wilhelm II is very happy that his perfect war has occurred, but he may feel deceived if it ends up in the British favour.)

Willy goaded Nicky into the war with all his Yellow Peril and "God's chosen" rhetoric with the implicit goal of driving a wedge in the Franco-Russia alliance and bring Russia to Germany's side. He's not declaring war on Russia when Britain joining Japan just serves that to him on a silver platter.

The war would end with all of Sakhalin being given to Japan, Korea a British protectorate, the independence of the Central Asian Khanate, and British protectorates like Afghanistan.


(Never think that the British will not try to make a peace that benefits them in the first place and will leave the Japanese and the Russians feeling fools)

What. The British had no interest in Korea, minus the slight possibility of Russian influence there. They had one unequal treaty in 1883 signed because everyone else got one in 1883-1884 and occupied Geomun Island briefly right around then before leaving because they were concerned Russia would invade Korea in response. Discounting that, Britain had no way to actually defend Korea, not when Russia is right there and Korea is so far away from Britain's navy and military. Especially if they were going to anger the Japanese and force them into the Russians' bed (seeing as the war started over who gets to control Korea and Manchuria, the British would've known taking Korea was going to anger both combatants). They want Japan as an ally against Russia, not as a Russian proxy into the Pacific.

The Germans will demand the independence of Poland

Germany conceived of creating a puppet Polish Kingdom in World War I. Until then, it was agreed between Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary that Poland would be left off the map entirely. Unless they were planning on a long war with the intent of fully dismantling Russia and had Austria-Hungary's blessings, that's not happening, not a decade earlier.

Regarding the OP, British and American loans were critical to Japan being able to sustain their war effort and actually win. Of course, the US was not willing to see Japan gain too much, due to concerns about competition in the Pacific, so it really becomes a matter of if the British are willing to break with the Americans to force through more concessions. And the Russians were moving more troops into the theatre and Witte was threatening continuing the war if the terms were too harsh, so it ends up as a strange game of geopolitical chicken. The British could threaten to enter the war, but that makes Russia more pro-German than they'd like and force Britain to spend resources on a foreign war they get no benefits from (like the Crimean War, which Britain didn't really get much out of other than screwing Russia over) while also annoying the US immensely. Japan's economy was on the brink of collapse by the end of the war, hence coming to the negotiating table and settling despite winning overwhelmingly, so unless the UK promises to pump their economy more AND make up for all the American loans that aren't coming anymore, Japan can't sustain. And if the UK decides to press harder, then they need some reason to alienate both the Russians and Americans, which they weren't willing to do during this time period.

Maybe Russia loses a bit more land, but the overall situation doesn't change too much. Britain still needs to reach a detente with Russia over Persia and Central Asia so they don't have to worry about Germany and Russia simultaneously and Russia still wants the Balkans under its thumb, which puts it on a collision course with Vienna and, by association, Berlin.

 

[ahmedali]

Couple of things to unpack here:


Willy goaded Nicky into the war with all his Yellow Peril and "God's chosen" rhetoric with the implicit goal of driving a wedge in the Franco-Russia alliance and bring Russia to Germany's side. He's not declaring war on Russia when Britain joining Japan just serves that to him on a silver platter.


What. The British had no interest in Korea, minus the slight possibility of Russian influence there. They had one unequal treaty in 1883 signed because everyone else got one in 1883-1884 and occupied Geomun Island briefly right around then before leaving because they were concerned Russia would invade Korea in response. Discounting that, Britain had no way to actually defend Korea, not when Russia is right there and Korea is so far away from Britain's navy and military. Especially if they were going to anger the Japanese and force them into the Russians' bed (seeing as the war started over who gets to control Korea and Manchuria, the British would've known taking Korea was going to anger both combatants). They want Japan as an ally against Russia, not as a Russian proxy into the Pacific.


Germany conceived of creating a puppet Polish Kingdom in World War I. Until then, it was agreed between Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary that Poland would be left off the map entirely. Unless they were planning on a long war with the intent of fully dismantling Russia and had Austria-Hungary's blessings, that's not happening, not a decade earlier.

Regarding the OP, British and American loans were critical to Japan being able to sustain their war effort and actually win. Of course, the US was not willing to see Japan gain too much, due to concerns about competition in the Pacific, so it really becomes a matter of if the British are willing to break with the Americans to force through more concessions. And the Russians were moving more troops into the theatre and Witte was threatening continuing the war if the terms were too harsh, so it ends up as a strange game of geopolitical chicken. The British could threaten to enter the war, but that makes Russia more pro-German than they'd like and force Britain to spend resources on a foreign war they get no benefits from (like the Crimean War, which Britain didn't really get much out of other than screwing Russia over) while also annoying the US immensely. Japan's economy was on the brink of collapse by the end of the war, hence coming to the negotiating table and settling despite winning overwhelmingly, so unless the UK promises to pump their economy more AND make up for all the American loans that aren't coming anymore, Japan can't sustain. And if the UK decides to press harder, then they need some reason to alienate both the Russians and Americans, which they weren't willing to do during this time period.

Maybe Russia loses a bit more land, but the overall situation doesn't change too much. Britain still needs to reach a detente with Russia over Persia and Central Asia so they don't have to worry about Germany and Russia simultaneously and Russia still wants the Balkans under its thumb, which puts it on a collision course with Vienna and, by association, Berlin.

Wilhelm II will not care about everything he said if he finds an opportunity to strengthen Germany, which is to join the British side against Russia


(Especially if France made its alliance with the Russians)


(Wilhelm himself is the one who killed his cousin when his government supported Lenin)



The German government hated Russia and tacitly supported Japan



No matter what Wilhelm said (Germany contributed to the modernization of Japan as much as Britain)



You can see them here they will do it



(They could have brought the 1807 border back during the First World War but they didn't and I don't see them going back in 1905)



Britain took care of itself first and was even ready to throw away a centuries-old alliance with Portugal for the sake of several colonies.


(The plan to divide the colonies of Portugal jointly with Germany and they were serious about them)


I can't see them gaining something (Sakhalin without Korea is to appease the British)


Japan's blood has become corrupt between them and the Russians


So they will silently protest against British Korea (they are much weaker than the British in 1905)


Central Asia As I said, the Khans in Bukhara and Khiva will be granted independence as British puppets like Afghanistan

 

[sarahz]

Wilhelm II will not care about everything he said if he finds an opportunity to strengthen Germany, which is to join the British side against Russia


(Especially if France made its alliance with the Russians)


(Wilhelm himself is the one who killed his cousin when his government supported Lenin)



The German government hated Russia and tacitly supported Japan



No matter what Wilhelm said (Germany contributed to the modernization of Japan as much as Britain)



You can see them here they will do it



(They could have brought the 1807 border back during the First World War but they didn't and I don't see them going back in 1905)



Britain took care of itself first and was even ready to throw away a centuries-old alliance with Portugal for the sake of several colonies.


(The plan to divide the colonies of Portugal jointly with Germany and they were serious about them)


I can't see them gaining something (Sakhalin without Korea is to appease the British)


Japan's blood has become corrupt between them and the Russians


So they will silently protest against British Korea (they are much weaker than the British in 1905)


Central Asia As I said, the Khans in Bukhara and Khiva will be granted independence as British puppets like Afghanistan

The British were more interested in Japanese Naval assistance in the Far East than territory they can not defend easily without Japanese help and certainly not in driving Japan and Russia closer together. Britain taking Korea makes zero strategic, financial or any other kind of sense, unlike some of the Portuguese African territories, which at least had some logic.

 

[Garrison]

I can't quite see the Germans and the Russians reforming their alliance, I suspect German ambitions in the east would thwart that and an isolated Russia would be perfect for them from a diplomatic standpoint, might even mean that the Schlieffen Plan gets binned if the French choose to align with the British rather than the Russians.

 

[ahmedali]

The British were more interested in Japanese Naval assistance in the Far East than territory they can not defend easily without Japanese help and certainly not in driving Japan and Russia closer together. Britain taking Korea makes zero strategic, financial or any other kind of sense, unlike some of the Portuguese African territories, which at least had some logic.

Korea is very valuable in terms of resources (there are natural resources in the North)


Bringing the Japanese and the Russians together is out of the question after the war as bad blood has already taken place


But this simply proves the point of view that Britain is imperialism that cares about itself


So a scenario that they hand over Korea to Japan is not an option and it may become a British colony

 

[naraic]

Britain is not going to go to war with Russia in 1905.

The signing of the entente with France represents a clear pivot against Germany.

Likewise Britain isn't going to push Japanese interests in peace negotiations. British fear of Russia ended with the destruction of two Russian fleets. Now the British interest in Japan is merely to keep them onside rather than to build them up massively.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

Wilhelm II will not care about everything he said if he finds an opportunity to strengthen Germany, which is to join the British side against Russia


(Especially if France made its alliance with the Russians)


(Wilhelm himself is the one who killed his cousin when his government supported Lenin)



The German government hated Russia and tacitly supported Japan



No matter what Wilhelm said (Germany contributed to the modernization of Japan as much as Britain)



You can see them here they will do it



(They could have brought the 1807 border back during the First World War but they didn't and I don't see them going back in 1905)



Britain took care of itself first and was even ready to throw away a centuries-old alliance with Portugal for the sake of several colonies.


(The plan to divide the colonies of Portugal jointly with Germany and they were serious about them)


I can't see them gaining something (Sakhalin without Korea is to appease the British)


Japan's blood has become corrupt between them and the Russians


So they will silently protest against British Korea (they are much weaker than the British in 1905)


Central Asia As I said, the Khans in Bukhara and Khiva will be granted independence as British puppets like Afghanistan

Again, you're conflating 1914 attitudes with 1905 attitudes. The Germans may have been wary of the Russians, but Russia was yet focused on Asia and competing with the British over influence in Central Asia. Wilhelm saw pushing Russia into the Russo-Japanese War as a chance to get break the Franco-Russian Alliance (since France disapproved of Russian expansionism in Asia) or force it to exclude Britain and include Germany and to keep Russian and Austro/German interests mutually exclusive to cooperate. Russia didn't ally Britain and put that to rest until 1907, after they lost the Russo-Japanese War and got locked out of Northeast Asia. At that point, Russia and Germany had little room to compromise.

It's like saying the French were intending to execute Louis XVI in 1789. Maybe that was in some people's minds, but it wasn't fait accompli until certain events (Storming the Bastille, Flight to Varennes) transpired.

Plus, there's no guarantee Russia would be weak forever. Such a betrayal bears some similarity to that of Austria's role in the Crimean War, and that didn't work out for Austria. Such a move basically guarantees Russia remains a pro-French anti-German power for Nicky's lifetime.

Regarding Portugal, you realize that Portugal's Pink Map was in direct conflict with the Cape-Cairo ambitions London held, right? So that they had a rationale for alienating that particular second-tier ally that they didn't have a major geopolitical foe to coordinate against? And that Britain historically held no ambitions on Korea and still needed Japan to counter Russian influence in the Far East?

Also, what does "Japan's blood has become corrupt between them and the Russians" even mean? Is that racial or something?

Korea is very valuable in terms of resources (there are natural resources in the North)


Bringing the Japanese and the Russians together is out of the question after the war as bad blood has already taken place


But this simply proves the point of view that Britain is imperialism that cares about itself


So a scenario that they hand over Korea to Japan is not an option and it may become a British colony

Again, conflating attitudes anachronistically. We know now that Korea's North had mineral wealth. In 1905, those resources were being discovered and the sheer amount was yet unknown.

Ah yes, two erstwhile enemies have never allied against a shared common enemy who they perceive to threaten their interests more than the other erstwhile enemy. We'll just ignore the British and French, the Austrians and Germans, the Japanese and Germans, the Americans and the British, the Italians and the Germans, the Ottomans and the Austrians, the French and the Russians, the British and the Russians, so so forth. All of which pivoted during the second half of the 19th century or the early part of the 20th century, i.e. this time period.

Also, the British didn't take land in the Crimean War, despite pretty major commitments. They really didn't get anything at all, save screwing the Russians over. What you're claiming is like the British taking Jerusalem or the whole Levant because it's useful despite it being the flashpoint of a major war between Great Powers, not a place that Britain can defend, and would anger every party involved. The British could be incompetent at times, but they didn't conquer the largest overseas empire in the world because they were diplomatically tactless and irrationally greedy. It wasn't pinching every bit of valuable land at the expense of diplomatic relations unless they were major British interests (Fashoda and the Pink Map being prime examples). Otherwise they would've just locked everyone else out of Africa to monopolise its wealth, not agree to a partition of the continent.

 

[ahmedali]

Again, you're conflating 1914 attitudes with 1905 attitudes. The Germans may have been wary of the Russians, but Russia was yet focused on Asia and competing with the British over influence in Central Asia. Wilhelm saw pushing Russia into the Russo-Japanese War as a chance to get break the Franco-Russian Alliance (since France disapproved of Russian expansionism in Asia) or force it to exclude Britain and include Germany and to keep Russian and Austro/German interests mutually exclusive to cooperate. Russia didn't ally Britain and put that to rest until 1907, after they lost the Russo-Japanese War and got locked out of Northeast Asia. At that point, Russia and Germany had little room to compromise.

It's like saying the French were intending to execute Louis XVI in 1789. Maybe that was in some people's minds, but it wasn't fait accompli until certain events (Storming the Bastille, Flight to Varennes) transpired.

Plus, there's no guarantee Russia would be weak forever. Such a betrayal bears some similarity to that of Austria's role in the Crimean War, and that didn't work out for Austria. Such a move basically guarantees Russia remains a pro-French anti-German power for Nicky's lifetime.

Regarding Portugal, you realize that Portugal's Pink Map was in direct conflict with the Cape-Cairo ambitions London held, right? So that they had a rationale for alienating that particular second-tier ally that they didn't have a major geopolitical foe to coordinate against? And that Britain historically held no ambitions on Korea and still needed Japan to counter Russian influence in the Far East?

Also, what does "Japan's blood has become corrupt between them and the Russians" even mean? Is that racial or something?


Again, conflating attitudes anachronistically. We know now that Korea's North had mineral wealth. In 1905, those resources were being discovered and the sheer amount was yet unknown.

Ah yes, two erstwhile enemies have never allied against a shared common enemy who they perceive to threaten their interests more than the other erstwhile enemy. We'll just ignore the British and French, the Austrians and Germans, the Japanese and Germans, the Americans and the British, the Italians and the Germans, the Ottomans and the Austrians, the French and the Russians, the British and the Russians, so so forth. All of which pivoted during the second half of the 19th century or the early part of the 20th century, i.e. this time period.

Also, the British didn't take land in the Crimean War, despite pretty major commitments. They really didn't get anything at all, save screwing the Russians over. What you're claiming is like the British taking Jerusalem or the whole Levant because it's useful despite it being the flashpoint of a major war between Great Powers, not a place that Britain can defend, and would anger every party involved. The British could be incompetent at times, but they didn't conquer the largest overseas empire in the world because they were diplomatically tactless and irrationally greedy. It wasn't pinching every bit of valuable land at the expense of diplomatic relations unless they were major British interests (Fashoda and the Pink Map being prime examples). Otherwise they would've just locked everyone else out of Africa to monopolise its wealth, not agree to a partition of the continent.

Fashoda led to the destruction of relations with France temporarily


The system of alliances has been established since 1899


Had they declared war on France and taken all of France's colonies, he would have essentially killed any chance of Britain joining the Entente.


Portugal acquiesced because it is weak, but it led to the growth of Portuguese hatred, albeit small, for the British.


They even wanted to divide the empire of Portugal with Germany through debts



So Britain can be very greedy


Germany saw its interests in the East


(Even the realist politics genius Bismarck became hostile to the Russians and said Africa, Germany, is Europe)


I mean the blood corruption between the Russians and Japan
The chance of reconciliation after 1905 is very slim


They would not have joined the First World War except because of their alliance with the First Britain and if there were no German colonies nearby


If there were no German colonies in the east, Japan would not join the war of its main front in Europe


Wilhelm said he was afraid of the yellow danger, but the Germans had invested a lot in Japan


Crimea is different from 1905


And remember that during the First World War they focused on the Ottomans for primarily imperial reasons more than the Western front.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I don't think the terms will be as drastic as what anyone is describing. Even if Britain joins the war after a bigger Dogger Bank incident, Russia probably backs down shortly after Britain declares war. Japan maybe picks up all of Sakhalin Island and gets a free hand in all of Manchuria instead of just the south.

Anglo-Russian relations get put back ten years, and how the two feel about each other in the future is up for debate. Both Japan and Russia are much more prosperous without having beggared the nation fighting a costly war and Russia probably avoids the 1905 Revolution and is much more stable overall.

 

[yulzari1]

I cannot see Britain having ambitions over Korea. The last thing wanted is a border with Russia. British government guaranteed Japanese loans and sales yes. As for the USA: cope.

 

[ahmedali]

I don't think the terms will be as drastic as what anyone is describing. Even if Britain joins the war after a bigger Dogger Bank incident, Russia probably backs down shortly after Britain declares war. Japan maybe picks up all of Sakhalin Island and gets a free hand in all of Manchuria instead of just the south.

Anglo-Russian relations get put back ten years, and how the two feel about each other in the future is up for debate. Both Japan and Russia are much more prosperous without having beggared the nation fighting a costly war and Russia probably avoids the 1905 Revolution and is much more stable overall.

In fact, the 1905 revolution will take place here and may be more successful with the Kaiser failing very disastrously and getting punched in the face.



The good thing is that Russia may become more democratic

 

[sarahz]

Korea is very valuable in terms of resources (there are natural resources in the North)


Bringing the Japanese and the Russians together is out of the question after the war as bad blood has already taken place


But this simply proves the point of view that Britain is imperialism that cares about itself


So a scenario that they hand over Korea to Japan is not an option and it may become a British colony

Yes but the UK will be perfectly able to access those resources through a friendly Japan it has no need to carry out an expensive and pointless occupation., and there is a difference between greed and stupidity. The British want Japan to redress a strategic imbalance not to create a worse one by alienating them and incidentally pretty much everyone else by doing this. Its like a chess player going after pieces and avoiding any consideration of position., not so much perfidious Albion as lobotomised Albion.

 

[ahmedali]

Yes but the UK will be perfectly able to access those resources through a friendly Japan it has no need to carry out an expensive and pointless occupation.

The British blood that was shed for Japan must be repaid


The government cannot leave war without gain (and Korea will be the proper reward for Britain)



Sakhalin, no bankruptcy, big compensation for the British, more than enough for Japan (and British Korea is a plus for telling people they've won something))

 

[ahmedali]

I cannot see Britain having ambitions over Korea. The last thing wanted is a border with Russia. British government guaranteed Japanese loans and sales yes. As for the USA: cope.

China is a buffer country if Russia wants away if we think about it

 

[wcv215]

(Wilhelm himself is the one who killed his cousin when his government supported Lenin)

…how? Nicholas had been overthrown for over a month by the time Germany sent Lenin back as a stooge.

 

[ahmedali]

…how? Nicholas had been overthrown for over a month by the time Germany sent Lenin back as a stooge.

Germany returned Lenin with the consent of the Kaiser


Lenin revolted against the tsar


The Bolsheviks, led by Lenin, killed the Tsar, who was himself a cousin of the Kaiser, whose government restored Lenin with his consent, essentially.


So Wilhelm killed his cousin and his twin cousin (George V) complicit in preventing his government from saving him and his family.


When the twin cousin ordered the rescue of the ruler of an enemy country and abandoned the ruler of an ally country


(British intelligence, by order of George V, evacuated and protected Emperor Karl Habsburg, the last emperor of Austria-Hungary, and his family to Switzerland when he refused to receive Nicholas II and his family despite the approval of his government)

 

[wcv215]

Lenin revolted against the tsar

But that’s the thing, no he didn’t. Lenin’s government takeover was against the Provisional government. The tsar was overthrown in the February Revolution. The Bolsheviks seized power in the November Revolution.