WI: Brazil never gets Rio Grande do Sul

[EnzoLux]

What if Brazil never managed to expand south of these borders (circa 1638), so they never get Rio Grande do Sul nor Cisplatina.

How could it happen and how would it affect Brazil and other countries (that area could be part of Argentina or become its own country)
I think Brazil would be poorer since the southern states are generally the most prosperous. It could also prompt Brazil to increase its military investment and military presence.

 

[Mildtryth]

You'd probably need the Portuguese to not to found Sacramento - Portugal wasn't much interested in that area at first, since it was too cold to grow sugarcane on and had no precious metals either. it was only after they founded Sacramento that they began seriously establishing settlements on that area, because Sacramento was too distant from the extant settlements.

By the way, these borders are not too accurate in the south - by 1638, the Portuguese hadn't founded any settlements in Paraná or Santa Catarina yet.

 

[galik]

The Brazilian merchant class would definitely be poorer if the slave trade with La Plata is not, for logistical reasons, possible, or has extensive has it was OTL. Overall less agricultural output and less livestock derived products to export. The great problem in mid to late 19th century is the usage of the river system for trade, the logistics to control those water ways by military means could hamper the hegemonic position that Brazil holds today.
In colonial times most development sprawled from the northeast to Minas and S. Paulo, only by the 19th century the southern regions took priority.