The pod is that Spain will have competent military leaders after Spinola's death, let's say 3 commanders emerge with the competence And ability of Duke of Alba, Farnese and Spinola, What would be the butterflies with the change of some defeats for example rocroi (ITTL without the leadership of melo), What would the relationship be like with Olivares (always jealous of competent people like Spinola and the king's brother cardinal-infante Ferdinand And plotting against they), And how would it affect the regency of Charles II?
WI: Best Spanish military leadership after 1630
- Thread starter Math
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It's hard to say how much better generalship could accomplish in 1630s-40s. Spain's big problem was that it was fighting on too many fronts and Castile (which was footing the bill) was under too much strain. So Rocroi, for example, had it gone the other way I'm not sure that it would change too much. The Spanish won some battles and invaded France in 1636 (Corbie) and Melo actually won a pretty substantial victory over the French the year before Rocroi at Honnecourt but couldn't do much with it. Obviously it helps morale and maintains Spanish prestige but at the end of the day the best general in the world can't win a war if he doesn't have sufficient men and money. And Spain was spread too thin with rebellions in Catalonia, Portugal, Naples, a French invasion of Rousillon and Milan and it was fighting a two front war in the Netherlands.
Maybe if Spain got really lucky and the top general was always in the right spot at the right time. So perhaps the campaign against the Catalans ends in a Spanish victory rather than a defeat at Montjuic as IOTL and they can put down the revolt before the French can intervene. Or perhaps one of these commanders is made Viceroy of Portugal in 1630s (there was discussion of installing John Casimir Vasa as viceroy until he was imprisoned in France) then the Portuguese Restoration war could be likewise pre-empted. If those two major revolts are prevented that could free up enough men and money to accomplish something meaningful in the Netherlands.
Failing that there's maybe more opportunity later on during the Fronde if someone on the Spanish side could effectively work with the princes. If Rethel had gone the other way or if the Spanish were available to coordinate with Conde later on then things would have been very different.
The fate of Olivares is interesting to consider. If the Catalan revolt is pre-empted and the Spanish perform marginally better in the Netherlands with better commanders then perhaps Olivares' downfall is prevented. So ironically the powerful commanders he perceives as rivals might be his salvation even though he wouldn't have seen it that way. The problem will come when Olivares goes. Does one of these powerful commanders try to return to Madrid to assume the reigns of power or do they remain in the field with greater autonomy with a weaker valido in Madrid following Olivares.
As for down the line after Philip IV dies it probably depends on how he structures his will. Would one of these commanders warrant a prominent position on the Junta de Gobierno? I would think at the very least it would diminish the power and prestige of Don Juan Jose if there are powerful military leaders (who are probably grandees).
Maybe if Spain got really lucky and the top general was always in the right spot at the right time. So perhaps the campaign against the Catalans ends in a Spanish victory rather than a defeat at Montjuic as IOTL and they can put down the revolt before the French can intervene. Or perhaps one of these commanders is made Viceroy of Portugal in 1630s (there was discussion of installing John Casimir Vasa as viceroy until he was imprisoned in France) then the Portuguese Restoration war could be likewise pre-empted. If those two major revolts are prevented that could free up enough men and money to accomplish something meaningful in the Netherlands.
Failing that there's maybe more opportunity later on during the Fronde if someone on the Spanish side could effectively work with the princes. If Rethel had gone the other way or if the Spanish were available to coordinate with Conde later on then things would have been very different.
The fate of Olivares is interesting to consider. If the Catalan revolt is pre-empted and the Spanish perform marginally better in the Netherlands with better commanders then perhaps Olivares' downfall is prevented. So ironically the powerful commanders he perceives as rivals might be his salvation even though he wouldn't have seen it that way. The problem will come when Olivares goes. Does one of these powerful commanders try to return to Madrid to assume the reigns of power or do they remain in the field with greater autonomy with a weaker valido in Madrid following Olivares.
As for down the line after Philip IV dies it probably depends on how he structures his will. Would one of these commanders warrant a prominent position on the Junta de Gobierno? I would think at the very least it would diminish the power and prestige of Don Juan Jose if there are powerful military leaders (who are probably grandees).
Thanks for responding, So let's say that thanks to these 3 commanders, the Catalan revolt is avoided, one of these commanders but the cardinal-infante Ferdinand after corbie manages to invade northern France And go deep, And the vasa or even one of these 3 becomes viceroy in Portugal and avoids an escalation into the restoration war And without the Catalan and Portuguese revolts, the Spanish managed to continue well in the war against the Netherlands , How serious was the future scenario, and how would the English and French react?
The biggest problem within the Spanish military during the commander of the Duke of Alba, was that the powers at the Spanish court were unhappy that they didn't have proper control over the commander of the Army of Flanders and who got promoted. They demanded that every higher officer role came to the Court to get confirmed or at least got confirmation by the Court which took ages.
Under Alba, there was a meritocracy within the army, also called 'the School of Alba'. Soldiers could grow and rise within the army to hold positions, that in other armies would only be reserved for high nobility. The officer roles within the infantry were considered superior to the ones in the cavalry. While it was true that under Alba those officers were related to him or a part of the nobility, they were all highly competent and trained.
After Alba, the Spanish Court gained more control over who got promoted, which most of the time were higher nobility despite not holding the compentency needed for the role.
The infantry officer positions became to be looked down upon as cavalry officers rose to prominence within the army. Further on there was a massive bloat of officer positions in general compared to soldiers.
Especially at the end, the officers often held other roles apart from their role of officer within the Army and were not even close to the army.
If the meritocatic nature of the Spanish army remained like it was under Alba, you'd have many more competent officers in charge and a completely different army culture in place as well
Under Alba, there was a meritocracy within the army, also called 'the School of Alba'. Soldiers could grow and rise within the army to hold positions, that in other armies would only be reserved for high nobility. The officer roles within the infantry were considered superior to the ones in the cavalry. While it was true that under Alba those officers were related to him or a part of the nobility, they were all highly competent and trained.
After Alba, the Spanish Court gained more control over who got promoted, which most of the time were higher nobility despite not holding the compentency needed for the role.
The infantry officer positions became to be looked down upon as cavalry officers rose to prominence within the army. Further on there was a massive bloat of officer positions in general compared to soldiers.
Especially at the end, the officers often held other roles apart from their role of officer within the Army and were not even close to the army.
If the meritocatic nature of the Spanish army remained like it was under Alba, you'd have many more competent officers in charge and a completely different army culture in place as well
I guess that's possible. I think the issue after Corbie was that the Spanish hadn't planned on actually invading deep into France so there was the old supply line issue. IIRC they made it as far as Roye and Nesle (which is, to be fair, about halfway from Corbie to Compiegne) before turning back. Nesle surrendered quickly because it wasn't well fortified or strongly garrisoned but there was a substantial French army forming to face the Spanish at Compiegne and Orleans IIRC had done a good job rallying to the crown and rousing the people of Paris to defend France from the Spanish. So even if a bolder general decides to strike at Compiegne and defeats the French outside the city he'd still have to take Compiegne before he could move onto Paris and the French were certainly preparing to go to a siege if necessary but it would probably be too late in the season for that.
I guess the Spanish could withdraw north and hold the Somme through the winter and just continue fighting the war on French soil rather than in Artois as IOTL. But such an early Spanish success would have pretty serious immediate ramifications so its probably not even worth considering the Catalan or Portuguese revolts. If the French are tied up repelling the French in Picardy French allied Savoy could collapse (the Spanish took a control of a number of towns in Piedmont during the Piedmontese Civil War and Carignano very nearly took the capitol during the triple siege of Turin in 1640). If Savoy is knocked out and the Spanish road is secured things start to look pretty bad in France. Richelieu could be discredited for starting the war. IOTL Orleans and Soissons were generally opposed to Richelieu and saw his prosecution of the war against Spain as means for him to consolidate his political power. So its possible Richelieu is actually forced out, though not guaranteed given Louis' seemingly unwavering support IOTL.
Then following this, the Spanish entered Picardy and established themselves there, bringing the battlefield into France, and managed to occupy Savoy, How would this affect the ongoing Thirty Years' War, with the French busy against the Spanish?
I'm not sure about the Spanish holding Picardy. I don't there's a great example of Spain taking and holding French territory for an extended period outside of maybe during the French wars of religion when France was internally divided. I'm sure someone will chime in and cite something but I don't know of a great parallel to reference. There tended to be a 'rally around the flag' effect when Spain invaded. As I said, Soissons and Orleans actually rallied to the crown after Corbie.
But for the sake of argument if that's how the war proceeds then its not great for France. Though strictly speaking Savoy is not occupied. Christine of France's regency (as dowager duchess) would be replaced by a regency headed by Carignano and his brother that would be pro-Spain. If Spain attempted to continue the occupation of any Piedmontese strong points that would just drive them to reach an accommodation with France. But that's for the best, fewer Spanish troops would have to be committed to northern Italy. Even if the French retain control of Savoy proper with Carignano only controlling Piedmont and Nice that's still a win for Spain. What Spain would occupy is Casale, which is probably all they need to secure Milan and Lombardy.
I guess the next question is how Bernard of Saxe Weimar fares. I'm not sure how much French support he had by 1638 when he took Breisach. If he fails there then operations in southern Germany probably cease for a while. His army either falls apart or moves north to link up with the Swedes. Certainly the French army of Germany that was at its core Bernard's army never forms as it did IOTL and which changes the whole dynamic of the latter part of the 30YW.
Also there's Lorraine. The French had occupied the Duchy but Charles IV was raiding into it in 1630s from Spanish Franche Comte. So possibly he is able to expel the French. But he so unreliable that I don't know how much benefit that actually provides the Spanish.
But the bigger question is how Spain approaches the war strategically. Does it back off and try and strike a status quo ante deal with France so it can turn back around go after the Dutch with its full forces? Or does it try to continue a two front war out of the Spanish Netherlands?
Considering this scenario still happening and things more or less go OTL with succession, it would be funny to see such beefed up military helping the Bourbons during the war of Spanish Succession