WI: Avars did not move to Central Europe

[Mario]

If for whatever reason the Avars would have not moved from their homeland in northern Caucasus, which consequences would have bring for Central Europe then?

Remember that:

- They allied with the Lombards for destroying the Kingdom of the Gepids.
- They persuaded the Lombards for moving to northern Italy after the end of the Gothic Wars.
- They played relevant roles in the first sieges to Constantinople and caused much trouble to the Byzantines.
- They somehow allowed the Slavic settlement of the Balkans.

So the first immediate consequences we could think are:

- The Gepid Kingdom might have survived for longer, maybe until an eventual integration into the Carolingian Empire -> In this case, the Franks would assure that Pannonia stays both Germanic and Christian (Gepids might have embraced Catholicism if survived longer), providing a more solid South/Eastern frontier.

- Byzantine Italy might have avoided the Lombard invasion of 568.

- The ERE skips a major enemy in the Balkans for more than two centuries. A direct border between ERE and HRE/WRE along the Danube seems more likely under this scenario.

- Slavic settlement of the Balkans could have been less important than IOTL, as the Gepids might have block them to move to the south.

 

[Tyg]

We probably can't be too confident in the Gepid Kingdom's endurance. The Eastern Romans were willing to weaken the kingdom before, and the Lombards could end up occupying and absorbing the Gepids instead. Whether they do or not though, either the Gepids or the Lombards are going to have to endure serious pressure from steppe nomads other than the Avars. Maybe those nomads never manage to occupy Pannonia itself, but they'll be an ongoing problem to any kingdom there. The Eastern Romans will be quite happy to have a weak buffer kingdom to absorb these nomadic raids, but they're likely to be unreliable allies.

The big difference is in Italy. If the Lombards stay where they are or take over the Gepid kingdom for themselves, Italy could have some time to recover from the damage of the Gothic Wars and be something other than a drain on the resources of Constantinople. It's not a given that Italy will be content under those circumstances though. The local aristocracy have some old institutions to look back on, and Italy's subservience to Constantinople could rankle them, especially if other actors like the Pope get involved. There's also a real risk that an economically recovered Italy and North Africa could support a rebellious general or Exarch to not claim the throne in Constantinople, but to revive the title of the Western Roman Empire; especially if the existing Emperor is distracted by a war with Persia or rebellions in Egypt and the Levant.

I'd agree that the Balkans would be less Slavic, though there might still be significant Slavic settlement in Pannonia and around the Danube. If things are more stable though, they could end up assimilated to the dominant local culture, especially in the Empire. Would Pannonia be that stable, though? The Gepid/Lombard kingdom might not be strong or centralized enough to really absorb waves of Slavic settlement, even if they're able to periodically re-assert suzerainty over the Pannonian basin. That could lead to a situation where only the upper nobility speak a Germanic language, which gradually fades away.

 

[Mario]

We probably...which gradually fades away.

Some of good points here.

In my opinion, what could happen is:

- Gepids and Lombards dispute the dominion of the plains spanning from the eastern Alps to Transylvania, absorbing the attempts of Slavic tribes and other nomadic peoples to get into the Balkans south of the Danube. This is an advantage for Byzantium for holding an effective border there and focus on their other problems in the East (Sassanids etc.). However this situation would not last beyond the 8th century and probably the Franks will absorb both Lombards and Gepids at some point, specially if they do not get into Italy.

- Byzantine Italy will recover but probably will split from Constantinople at some point, restoring a sort of 'mini-WRE' comprising Italy and probably the Byzantine Exarchate of Africa. The Franks are not involved in the Italian affairs. If this mini-WRE thrives enough, they could bring Visigothic Spain under their influence.

 

[Gloss]

I'd agree that the Balkans would be less Slavic, though there might still be significant Slavic settlement in Pannonia and around the Danube. If things are more stable though, they could end up assimilated to the dominant local culture, especially in the Empire. Would Pannonia be that stable, though? The Gepid/Lombard kingdom might not be strong or centralized enough to really absorb waves of Slavic settlement, even if they're able to periodically re-assert suzerainty over the Pannonian basin. That could lead to a situation where only the upper nobility speak a Germanic language, which gradually fades away.

You seem to think that the Slavs were already a demographic sizeable groups even before they went past the Carpathians, but that is not likely at all given the regions where they come from didn't have that many people to begin with so if they do not encounter a favourable zones where they could actually become sizeable I don't think they would take over so many places just through their initial numbers. A Lombard absorbed Gepid kingdom would hardly be that empty, in this situation the Slavs would be mostly a group relegated to areas north of the Danube or Carpathians.