WI Austria-Hungary survives WWI?
- Thread starter QingChina22
- Start date
Austria-Hungary needs to look like a necessary firewall against Communism and more stable than the Balkans. The easiest way to do that is an early Red victory in the Russian civil war.
Depending on how the empire is reorganized, things could actually go better for the 20th Century. Nazi Germany isn't going to be able to pick off it's Eastern neighbours one at a time, and the Yugoslav crisis in the 1990s likely won't happen either.
Depending on how the empire is reorganized, things could actually go better for the 20th Century. Nazi Germany isn't going to be able to pick off it's Eastern neighbours one at a time, and the Yugoslav crisis in the 1990s likely won't happen either.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
ALOT less pressure on the Empire during the course of the War, preferably ending in a CP victory. This saves their demographic trends, prevents the total breakdown in the food situation and resulting flare-up of ethnic tensions, and the formation of alternative/parallel governing and political structures that weaken political authority. Best case scenario for this? A quick seizure of Belgrade under the "Halt in Belgrade" understanding (Added bonus; reduces tensions between Austria and Hungary by having Vienna keep her word), reach negotations with the Serbian government to close off the Balkan front and focus on the East, reducing Italian chances of (at least earlier on) joining in and cutting off exports to Austria as well as sucking up more military-industrial resources.
part 1 ( might continue it later)
There are tons of sceniarios, which could lead to the survival of Austria-Hungary. Excluding any CP victory sceniario, the two most latest sceniarios are the followings:
-The Monarchy stays on defensive on the Italian Front in 1918, thus avoids both the fail at the Second Battle of the Piave and disaster at the Battle of Vittorio Veneto. (Very Likely)
-The Second Battle of the Piave is another Caporetto for the Italians, which cripples the remnants of the Italian Army and favourable knocks Italy out of the war. (Less Likely)
First sceniario:
Since the army was still under reorganisation and there were still not that much Entente forces in the region, there were no plans for offensive on the Italian's behalf for 1918. Since in this sceniario neither does Austria-Hungary have any intention to attack, a reasonable amount of troops could be transfered to the Macedonian Front, when the situation becomes dire for the Bulgarians, which could easily mean the prevention of the collapse of that front. This means, when after the German defenses collapse on the Western Front, both the Italian and Macedonian Fronts would be still intact. From this point the Central Powers either call for armistice/sue for peace together or the Germans are abandoned by their allies right after the Entente breakthrough on the Western Front. It might sound silly to differentiate these two outcomes, but if Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria detache themselves from Germany even just a month or so earlier, that could significantly improve the British and French opinion on them ("they are not just German puppets afterall...").
After all of this, the fate of Germany and Turkey wouldn't change, while Bulgaria would either lose the same territories of OTL or it would get a status quo ante. Austria-Hungary would have to abandon all it's gains and it would have to give Galicia to Poland (and maybe to Ukraine) and Bucovina to Romania. Italy is likely to get Trentino and Austrian Littoral with Triest, but not more. Serbia wouldn't get any territory from the Monarchy, but their territorial integrity would be restored. Montenegro might or might not be united with Serbia.
After the war, Austria-Hungary would have averted it's collapse, but it would be still in a quite difficult situation and some reforms would be needed. However don't imagine any kind of federalisation or whatsoever, that won't happen. There won't be any special autonoumus territories established either. However the decentralisation of power to the existing administrative subdivisions seems likely. Now I will speak about Hungary a bit. To ease the tension in society, the voting rights would be considerably extended, which would cause higher representation of the lower classes, which would lead to the further decline of the power of the nobility. At the same time, it would also raise the representation of the minorities in the parliement, which would make the Hungarians more likely to revise the laws concerning minorities and language.
Moving on, the economic situation would quite bad for a couple of years, but then the Austro-Hungarian economy would recover quickly and would probably become one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. Why do I say that? Because the industry of Austria-Hungary sustained no physical damage during the war, and it wouldn't come under foreign occupation either, while there are plenty of resources available domestically. The Great Depression could raise things up a bit, but since Austria-Hungary could endure a little autarky much better, than OTL Austria and Hungary could, the system wouldn't be in danger.
There are tons of sceniarios, which could lead to the survival of Austria-Hungary. Excluding any CP victory sceniario, the two most latest sceniarios are the followings:
-The Monarchy stays on defensive on the Italian Front in 1918, thus avoids both the fail at the Second Battle of the Piave and disaster at the Battle of Vittorio Veneto. (Very Likely)
-The Second Battle of the Piave is another Caporetto for the Italians, which cripples the remnants of the Italian Army and favourable knocks Italy out of the war. (Less Likely)
First sceniario:
Since the army was still under reorganisation and there were still not that much Entente forces in the region, there were no plans for offensive on the Italian's behalf for 1918. Since in this sceniario neither does Austria-Hungary have any intention to attack, a reasonable amount of troops could be transfered to the Macedonian Front, when the situation becomes dire for the Bulgarians, which could easily mean the prevention of the collapse of that front. This means, when after the German defenses collapse on the Western Front, both the Italian and Macedonian Fronts would be still intact. From this point the Central Powers either call for armistice/sue for peace together or the Germans are abandoned by their allies right after the Entente breakthrough on the Western Front. It might sound silly to differentiate these two outcomes, but if Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria detache themselves from Germany even just a month or so earlier, that could significantly improve the British and French opinion on them ("they are not just German puppets afterall...").
After all of this, the fate of Germany and Turkey wouldn't change, while Bulgaria would either lose the same territories of OTL or it would get a status quo ante. Austria-Hungary would have to abandon all it's gains and it would have to give Galicia to Poland (and maybe to Ukraine) and Bucovina to Romania. Italy is likely to get Trentino and Austrian Littoral with Triest, but not more. Serbia wouldn't get any territory from the Monarchy, but their territorial integrity would be restored. Montenegro might or might not be united with Serbia.
After the war, Austria-Hungary would have averted it's collapse, but it would be still in a quite difficult situation and some reforms would be needed. However don't imagine any kind of federalisation or whatsoever, that won't happen. There won't be any special autonoumus territories established either. However the decentralisation of power to the existing administrative subdivisions seems likely. Now I will speak about Hungary a bit. To ease the tension in society, the voting rights would be considerably extended, which would cause higher representation of the lower classes, which would lead to the further decline of the power of the nobility. At the same time, it would also raise the representation of the minorities in the parliement, which would make the Hungarians more likely to revise the laws concerning minorities and language.
Moving on, the economic situation would quite bad for a couple of years, but then the Austro-Hungarian economy would recover quickly and would probably become one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. Why do I say that? Because the industry of Austria-Hungary sustained no physical damage during the war, and it wouldn't come under foreign occupation either, while there are plenty of resources available domestically. The Great Depression could raise things up a bit, but since Austria-Hungary could endure a little autarky much better, than OTL Austria and Hungary could, the system wouldn't be in danger.
Disagree- Nazi Germany will be able to puppetize Austria-Hungary in one piece, or destabilize and fragment it pretty easily. Austria-Hungary cannot afford a war with Germany or even a bluff-based containment strategy against it at all.
What? You are speaking nonsense. Puppeting Austria-Hungary is way out of the reach of Nazi Germany, while invading it wouldn't just be disaster and meatgrinder, because of the terrain, but furthermore it would trigger actions from France, Britain and Poland.
Nazi Germany is clearly f*cked in this sceniario.
Yes, but I think A-H would survive longer than first Yugoslavia. At least A-H is not entirely new state and is too important for European balance of power to be sacrificed like Czechoslovakia.
Yugoslavia fell because it had big economic issues, which brought the ethnic tensions to the surface. Such thing wouldn't happen to Austria-Hungary.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
I think there's wide disagreement on this front, but Berlin can always catch more flies with honey than with viniger. A-H, more than anybody else except perhaps Poland, has reason to find the Anti-Communist elements of Fascism appealing, particularly Mussolini's, Franco's and Vichy's more Clerical-Facist variety (The ties between Catholicism and the ritual and traditions of the Empire are deep, deep indeed and resonate deeply with the rural and border populations, and a tradition ethnic enemy, atheistic, anti-Monarchy, foe who stands for basically OTL's Soviets did would be horrifying indeed), so by toning up the Anti-Communist and traditional (IE Right-wing elements of society; industrialists, peasant small land-holders, the army, ect.) parts of the ideology and weakening the Pan-ethnic forces would make it easy for the two nations to align against the common threat in the East. Added bonus; it gives Hitler diplomatic "good sport" points with the Western Allies.
Good points- I just think that Austria-Hungary would not be a strong bulwark against Germany, especially given the existence of communism and appeal of anti-communism. German-speaking Austrians and devout Catholics or conservatives throughout the empire would regard picking a fight with Germany as rather *dumb* given the threat of communism.
Good points- I just think that Austria-Hungary would not be a strong bulwark against Germany, especially given the existence of communism and appeal of anti-communism. German-speaking Austrians and devout Catholics or conservatives throughout the empire would regard picking a fight with Germany as rather *dumb* given the threat of communism.
Existing A-H would greatly affect European alliances and Russian Civil War:
-Austria-Hungary could ally with Poland, perhaps Charles Stephen Habsburg get Polish crown? Galizia is little price for friendly Poland with Habsburg king.
-Poland could get more land in the west-UK would not fear that Poland will turn into French puppet. Thus Poland do better in Polish-Bolshevik war.
-Austria-Hungary, unlike Czechislovakia would be fiercely anti-Bolshevik and would aid Poland with weapons and ammo like Hungary did IOTL, just on bigger scale.
-With Bolsheviks beaten more than IOTL maybe rump White Russian or Ukrainian state survives?
-Austria-Hungary could ally with Poland, perhaps Charles Stephen Habsburg get Polish crown? Galizia is little price for friendly Poland with Habsburg king.
-Poland could get more land in the west-UK would not fear that Poland will turn into French puppet. Thus Poland do better in Polish-Bolshevik war.
-Austria-Hungary, unlike Czechislovakia would be fiercely anti-Bolshevik and would aid Poland with weapons and ammo like Hungary did IOTL, just on bigger scale.
-With Bolsheviks beaten more than IOTL maybe rump White Russian or Ukrainian state survives?
part 2
The foreign policy of the Dual Monarchy would be quite isolationist in the last years of the '10s and in the first half of the '20s. The Nation(s) would be too exhausted to involve itself in any kind of foreign events, the domestic recovery would take priority. Even the only possible foreign involvement would be linked to domestic matters, which would be the civil war in Russia, but even this involvement would be limited to the supplying of some white forces (primarily the Polish), and to sending volunteer forces (primarily to the Poles again). Despite this, I can't see any significant change in the outcome of the Russian Civil War, maybe just a slightly bigger Poland. However, the Austro-Hungarian aid wouldn't be forgotten by the Poles, who might even invite a Habsburg to the Polish throne, but even if this doesn't happen, the great relations and a future alliance between the two are most certain.
The second half of the '20 would be the time, when Austria-Hungary finally completely recovers and reenters the international stage of the Great Powers. The German-Polish customs war would be one of the first affairs, inwhich Austria-Hungary could involve itself. It would be a great oppurtunity to enter the Polish market, which could even provide a chance to expand into the Baltic markets as well. Meanwhile, the restrenghtening economy would allow the Monarchy to start focusing on it's interests elsewhere as well. The focus would be ofcourse on the reclaimation of Austrian Littoral with Triest from the Italians, but the recent "vassalisation" of Albania would be a flashpoint as well. The tension would be high, but none of the sides would want another war yet. However this conflict together with the German-Polish customs war would result in the improving relation between Austria-Hungary and France. It would be a sensible shift from a previous British-aligment, which would have been prominent prior.
The Great Depression would still happen, but it would be a bit different in Europe compared to OTL, since the Austrian banking system wouldn't be oversized in TTL, which means it wouldn't collapse. This means the crisis would be much less severe in Central Europe, which can even affect the political life in Germany.
Regardless, another conflict is likely to take place in the late '30s or in the '40s anyway, inwhich the blocks could be the following: France-Austria-Hungary-(Britain) vs. Germany-Italy-(Soviet Union). Depending on the sceniario, Britain and the Soviet Union might or might not join. Alongside the Great Powers, secondary powers would join the war as well, most importantly Poland, who would strenghten the Franco-Austro-Hungarian side ofcourse.