WI Argentina heavily garrisons the Falklands?

[Darzin]

I know Argentina was expecting to get the Falklands without a fight, but what if to ensure fait accompli they land a significant number of soldiers say 20,000 and a few tanks. When the British make clear they will fight the Argentines flood the islands with supplies and dig in Imperial Japanese style.

Can the British take back the islands from such a force? If the British are unable to take them would the Americans assist them? And what would a WWII style island battle look like in the1980s?

 

[Alanith]

I know Argentina was expecting to get the Falklands without a fight, but what if to ensure fait accompli they land a significant number of soldiers say 20,000 and a few tanks. When the British make clear they will fight the Argentines flood the islands with supplies and dig in Imperial Japanese style.

Can the British take back the islands from such a force? If the British are unable to take them would the Americans assist them? And what would a WWII style island battle look like in the1980s?

Absolute worst come to worst, the US would announce the "Sale" of a reasonably large portion of the USN's amphibious assets to the RN. However it seems the British have been having some supply difficulties, since aside from a few lads watching events on the bridge, none of the uniforms seem to have changed....

 

[Spencersj345.346]

With the airlift the Argentines have available they aren't keeping that many troops supplied forever and with the RN SSNs they can't do it by sea

 

[Riain]

Argentina planned to invade the Falklands in early 1983, after at least 2 Meko 360 Frigates and all 14 Super Etendard aircraft and their full compliment of Exocets had been delivered, and presumably the raw conscripts that were allocated to defending the islands IOTL had a full year of training and were combat ready. Even so the small planning team, only 3 months into their 12-15 month task, had been specifically told not to prepare for the defence of the islands although I suspect that as the expected date if invasion approached some thought would be given to defence of the islands.

Given the OTL Op Rosario was thrown together with about 10 days notice and no thought whatsoever was given to defending their gains, it's amazing that the Argentines achieved what they did; the 10 day airlift with over 200 flights with aircraft as big as B373 and BAC 111 airliners was particularly impressive. Personally I doubt in their circumstances could have done much more, my most obvious suggestion would be more than four 155mm howitzers, however I think they had sufficient troops and tanks aren't very practical on the islands.

 

[David Flin]

I know Argentina was expecting to get the Falklands without a fight, but what if to ensure fait accompli they land a significant number of soldiers say 20,000 and a few tanks.

Good luck supplying them. Good luck operating tanks in the peat bogs.

 

[butch4343]

Iirc there was a British plan that if resistance was fierce and UK forces weren't able to liberate the Falklands before the onset of winter, the plan was to secure a lodging ashore and build a temporary airfield with psp and maintain a presence on the Falklands over the winter, allow the fleet to refit and then resume the campaign in spring. It wasn't particularly poltically attractive option but that was one. So perhaps that option plays out in a greatly reinforced argentine presence.

 

[Asian Jumbo]

Meanwhile nothing arrives by sea into either the Falklands or Argentina itself

 

[TDM]

Isolate them and wait until they starve, 20k troops would be roughly 10x the civilian population

 

[Hammerbolt]

Argentina planned to invade the Falklands in early 1983, after at least 2 Meko 360 Frigates and all 14 Super Etendard aircraft and their full compliment of Exocets had been delivered, and presumably the raw conscripts that were allocated to defending the islands IOTL had a full year of training and were combat ready. Even so the small planning team, only 3 months into their 12-15 month task, had been specifically told not to prepare for the defence of the islands although I suspect that as the expected date if invasion approached some thought would be given to defence of the islands.

By 1983 the RN would have lost the Invencible and Hermes. That would make any atempt at retaking the islands moot...

Good luck supplying them. Good luck operating tanks in the peat bogs.

That would depend on the tanks, tbh. The british did use the (albeight much lighter) Scorpion and Scimitar light tanks. I'd love to know the ground preassure of the TAM Tank. And the did deploy some AML-90 armoured cars. Not tanks, but they do carry a 90mm gun...

 

[David Flin]

The british did use the (albeight much lighter) Scorpion and Scimitar light tanks. I'd love to know the ground preassure of the TAM Tank. And the did deploy some AML-90 armoured cars. Not tanks, but they do carry a 90mm gun.

The British tanks were, however, restricted in the areas they could go to. They weren't usable in the soggier parts - which is about half of the island.

Can't say I say any Argentine armoured cars - but then, I was operating in the soggier parts. Trust me when I say that the soggy parts are not suitable for, well, anything.

 

[Hammerbolt]

The British tanks were, however, restricted in the areas they could go to. They weren't usable in the soggier parts - which is about half of the island.

Can't say I say any Argentine armoured cars - but then, I was operating in the soggier parts. Trust me when I say that the soggy parts are not suitable for, well, anything.

Afaik, the AMLs were kept in the Port Stanley area.

 

[David Flin]

Afaik, the AMLs were kept in the Port Stanley area.

If so, that makes them essentially useless. By the time fighting gets to the Port Stanley area, the campaign has been decided and all that's left are the final details.

 

[Hammerbolt]

If so, that makes them essentially useless. By the time fighting gets to the Port Stanley area, the campaign has been decided and all that's left are the final details.

Yeah. The argentinian army seems to have used them just to beef up local garrison/police duties. I'm sure they could have been moved around more, at least far enough to allow the 90mm to bombard something.

 

[David Flin]

Yeah. The argentinian army seems to have used them just to beef up local garrison/police duties. I'm sure they could have been moved around more, at least far enough to allow the 90mm to bombard something.

Not able to get close enough to Harriet/Twin Sisters/Longdon. Tumbledown, probably reachable. Once Harriet/Twin Sisters/Longdon are in British hands, it's all over bar the details. Tumbledown is the last natural defence position, and can be suppressed from Harriet.

Harriet was within range of artillery fire. I can attest to that.

 

[fastmongrel]

I read somewhere that a WWII infantry division of around 18,000 men needed 300 tons of supplies per day. Can the Argentinian air force supply 20,000 men.

 

[Remitonov]

It wasn't really the lack of troops on the islands that was the issue for Argentina, I feel. It was the kind of troops they sent. Had they sent better acclimatized soldiers from Patagonia, the British might have a worse time trying to dislodge them. Instead, fearing a Chilean invasion of Patagonia, they sent conscripts from the warmer north to freeze, with predictable results.

 

[David Flin]

It was the kind of troops they sent. Had they sent better acclimatized soldiers from Patagonia, the British might have a worse time trying to dislodge them. Instead, fearing a Chilean invasion of Patagonia, they sent conscripts from the warmer north to freeze, with predictable results.

It wasn't the acclimatisation (or lack thereof) that was the issue. It was (in no particular order):

1. The uselessness of the junior officers, who were - from top to bottom and side to side - useless and a disgrace.
2. The abysmal state of training of the soldiers. Under stress, one defaults to the level of training, and the soldiers wouldn't even have passed basic training in any semi-competent army.
3. The sheer passivity of the defence. Quite why, I have no idea, but the defence was incredibly passive, allowing the British to control the battles.
4. The astonishing lack of fieldcraft. In the prelude to the Battle for Mount Harriet, Royal Marine patrols were able to follow Argentine patrols making their way through minefields, hence learning safe pathways through. In the prelude to the same Battle, the lead elements of the Royal Marines discovered that the Argentine forces had only set a single line of sentries, with no-one watching the sentries. As a result, the sentries were removed and the Argentine defenders none the wiser.
5. Poor quality senior NCOs. The Argentine NCOs did a lot of shouting, but to very modest effect.
6. Lack of familiarity with what being in action means.

The British had the Scots and Welch Guards who were also not acclimatised, and they coped.

 

[Crowbar Six]

I know Argentina was expecting to get the Falklands without a fight, but what if to ensure fait accompli they land a significant number of soldiers say 20,000 and a few tanks. When the British make clear they will fight the Argentines flood the islands with supplies and dig in Imperial Japanese style.

Can the British take back the islands from such a force? If the British are unable to take them would the Americans assist them? And what would a WWII style island battle look like in the1980s?

The RN SSN and elements of the SSK force sets up shop in the South Atlantic, the UK declares the Falklands and the whole of the Argentinian coast as a Total exclusion zone and sinks everything they find that can be identified as a Argentinian ship. Meanwhile the UK leaves a Carrier task force down there and sets up a SAM trap off Port Stanley and gets lots of practice shooting down Argentinian transports with Sea Dart.

The Argentinian troops mutiny having not seen a green vegetable for ages and subsisting on a diet of roast and boiled mutton before succumbing to scurvy.

Meanwhile the RN buys a large number of USN amphibious assets and pick up a LPH or two then go back down and kicks them off he island the hard way.

 

[Crowbar Six]

It wasn't the acclimatisation (or lack thereof) that was the issue. It was (in no particular order):

1. The uselessness of the junior officers, who were - from top to bottom and side to side - useless and a disgrace.
2. The abysmal state of training of the soldiers. Under stress, one defaults to the level of training, and the soldiers wouldn't even have passed basic training in any semi-competent army.
3. The sheer passivity of the defence. Quite why, I have no idea, but the defence was incredibly passive, allowing the British to control the battles.
4. The astonishing lack of fieldcraft. In the prelude to the Battle for Mount Harriet, Royal Marine patrols were able to follow Argentine patrols making their way through minefields, hence learning safe pathways through. In the prelude to the same Battle, the lead elements of the Royal Marines discovered that the Argentine forces had only set a single line of sentries, with no-one watching the sentries. As a result, the sentries were removed and the Argentine defenders none the wiser.
5. Poor quality senior NCOs. The Argentine NCOs did a lot of shouting, but to very modest effect.
6. Lack of familiarity with what being in action means.

The British had the Scots and Welch Guards who were also not acclimatised, and they coped.

To be fair the Welsh guards spent a lot of time in the Brecons training, for most of them the only difference between the Falklands and Sennybridge was there were less pubs.

 

[Gillan1220]

Isolate them and wait until they starve, 20k troops would be roughly 10x the civilian population

There's also the cold to consider. How do these invading Argentine troops keep warm in the harsh South Atlantic climate?

bsolute worst come to worst, the US would announce the "Sale" of a reasonably large portion of the USN's amphibious assets to the RN. However it seems the British have been having some supply difficulties, since aside from a few lads watching events on the bridge, none of the uniforms seem to have ch

Meanwhile the RN buys a large number of USN amphibious assets and pick up a LPH or two then go back down and kicks them off he island the hard way.

I'm not so sure if the Tarawa-class LPHs would be compatible with the Royal Navy's Merlin, Lynx, or Sea Harrier. One thing for certain, it would take several months to a year to have these Tarawa's be compatible with Royal Navy standards. I know the U.S. Navy did some modification with the Royal Navy carriers back then in World War II.

The Sea Harrier would own the sky and also destroy what tanks the Argentines have.