WI: Air France 8969 crashed into the Eiffel Tower.

On 24 December 1994, four hijackers from the Armed Islamic Group hijacked a Air France flight in Algeria. Over the course of the two days it remained on the tarmac, three passengers were murdered by the hijackers as they demanded the release of two Islamic Salvation Party leaders, who had been arrested by the Algerian government, and be allowed to land in France.

On the 26th, the Algerian government allowed the plane to leave Algeria for France. Since the plane's auxiliary power unit was near depleted, the plane landed at Marseilles. It was here that the French GIGN stormed the plane and killed the hijackers.

After the hijacking, a former leader of the Armed Islamic Group confirmed that the plane was intended to crash into the Eiffel Tower.

Here comes the POD.

Before the hijacking officially began, the four hijackers entered the plane and pretended to be police, conducting passport checks, which delayed the plane, tipping off the Algerian military which then tipped off the hijackers that the military knew something was up.

What if instead of doing the passport checks, the hijackers just told the passengers they were there to provide extra security for the plane and so the plane leaves the airport on schedule and when the plane is in French airspace over Paris, the hijackers then take over the plane and crash it into the Eiffel Tower?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_8969
 
This scenario basically sounds like a French 9/11, but about 7 years early. If the GIA terrorists succeeded in crashing the plane into the Eiffel Tower, then about 236 people (combined total of people on the plane, including crew, passengers, and hijackers), plus however many people in the Eiffel Tower or on the ground in Paris, will be killed or injured. Obviously enough, this will cause a lot of serious geopolitical consequences.

In France, there will obviously be a lot of anger against the jihadist terrorists responsible, but unfortunately it will also easily devolve into xenophobic hatred against innocent Muslim immigrants. The French government will have to respond, meaning that they directly intervene in the Algerian Civil War, in support of the Algerian government against the GIA and other rebel groups. Who knows, maybe France will also convince the rest of NATO to join them in fighting this war, after all they've got the mutual defense justification down.

So basically we get what's pretty much the 1990s version of the 2000s War on Terror, but several years early. I wonder what other effects this will have on the foreign policies of France, EU, NATO, and the USA for the rest of the decade and beyond? Al-Qaeda already tried to attack the WTC in 1993, but will they still try to make another attempt in 2001 (and would they still be just as successful like in OTL)? In any case, I'm betting that bin Laden would like to get more involved in the Algerian conflict to counter the NATO presence. How will international terrorism be treated differently in this timeline?
 
So basically we get what's pretty much the 1990s version of the 2000s War on Terror, but several years early.

And the target in question would be perfect for a 90s version of all that liberal-hawk rhetoric from OTL...

"The towering symbol of modernity and urbanism, brought crashing down by the murderous resentment of Bronze Age reactionaries."

(That is, if anyone actually remembers that the Eiffel was originally viewed as a symbol of industrial modernity, rather than its current pop-status as just another icon of quaint old Europe, along with the Leaning Tower and Big Ben.)
 
And the target in question would be perfect for a 90s version of all that liberal-hawk rhetoric from OTL...

"The towering symbol of modernity and urbanism, brought crashing down by the murderous resentment of Bronze Age reactionaries."

(That is, if anyone actually remembers that the Eiffel was originally viewed as a symbol of industrial modernity, rather than its current pop-status as just another icon of quaint old Europe, along with the Leaning Tower and Big Ben.)

The Eiffel Tower is such an iconic symbol of France in popular culture. Out of respect for the memory of its destruction, it will be treated like the WTC after 9/11 — and by that, I mean it will get subjected to weird media censorship, with new works of film and television erasing it to pretend that it never existed. Which means that the Eiffel Tower won't be referenced for French stereotype jokes in American cartoons.
 
Would France re-build the Eiffel Tower, or replace it with a different structure and memorial like NYC did with the WTC site? I would say they would probably re-build it,as it would be easier to resurrect than the Twin Towers.
 
Like the Twin Towers, the timing matters a lot when it comes to casualties. After 10 AM, the butcher's bill will be a hell lot heavier. The Eiffel Tower is definitively not a structure as strong as the Twin Towers so a direct hit just above the first floor will result in a collapse of the structure within minutes. You can easily reach a thousand dead people. More is less likely since people on the ground can quickly reach the saftey provided by the narrow streets only a couple of hundred of metres away (plus the Eiffel Tower isn't as large as the Twin Towers so houses a lot less people even when tourists included).

In 1994, France is ruled by a Socialist President which is clearly dying from cancer and intervenes less and less (he needed regular shots just to be able to speak in public) so the effective leader of the country is the conservative PM Edouard Balladur (the Socialists lost the legislative elections in 1993). Balladur, from a French pov, is a conservative but for American readers, I would say that he's a moderate democrat between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Public reaction will be extreme but French society, even if suffering from racism and xenophobia in the 1990's, isn't Texas. I would say (again for American readers) that it's California. Balladur is no Bush or Cheney (and the President remains the Commander-in-Chief of the Army with Foreign Policy being his private domain in France). So decision must be taken by a PM with a reputation of being competent but clearly lacking charisma (he was nicknamed the "Pelican") and a charismatic but very ill President.

Relationship between France and Algeria ARE NOT good, even more in the early 1990's. Algeria is ruled by the FLN, the very organization that led the Independence War barely thirty years ago and which has a tendency to blame France for everything wrong happening in Algeria (even today, it's a way to hide their failures as a corrupt military dictatorship plagued by cronyism). Algeria, however, is a secular regime, led by people who are arab nationalists the same way Nasser was and who HATE islamists. The country has also a good, well-trained army with competent Intelligence Services (closer to Turkey's than Syria's to give you an idea).

So France sending troops in Algeria is a no-go: the Algerian government will scream bloody murder (it's also a very sensitive matter in France). But intensive cooperation relative to secret operations and exchange of information will happen. Again, French and Algerian troops fighting side by side in 1994 is VERY unlikely (hell, even in 2019 nobody thinks it's even possible) but a common, ruthless secret war against the GIA will occur.

Balladur as a PM knows that this can gives him the presidency in the 1995 elections if he handles the crisis right. His rival in the conservative party is Jacques Chirac (who beat him OTL after a vicious internal conflict). Plus one of Balladur's protégés in 1994 is... Nicolas Sarkozy, OTL President in 2007 and noted for his hard stance regarding immigration. So, a very restricted immigration policy can be established.

If Balladur win the presidency in 1995, you have a moderate, serious man at the head of the state, who won't be foolish enough to dissolve the Assembly in 1997 and lose the Legislative Elections against the Socialist Party (Chirac did it, thinking it would strengthen the Conservative Party and was mocked for years because of this). So a conservative government, forced to adopt extreme measures (partly to avoid being eaten alive by the Far-right) rules from 1995 to 2002. The 1998 World Cup, known for being the triumph of the Black-Blanc-Beur French society since the French team reflected France's diversity (Black people from Africa and the West Indies, white people and people coming from Algeria like Zidane -not an arab himself but a Kabyle) might just not happen due to this particular political climate.

Society will be more divided, even more than OTL. Immigration will likely be largely (not entirely though) limited to countries coming from the Schengen area (the European Union) because many people will think (but won't say it outloud, again France isn't Texas) that Christian people won't cause this kind of problem.

Every French government will claim that the Eiffel Tower will be rebuilt. It will even be a priority. Ground zero cannot exist here. It's a huge cultural symbol.

2008 and the economical crisis are going to be so much fun ITTL, surely not enough for the Far-right to win (at worst, they can win the Presidency but not the Parliament) but still with problems in the "banlieux" (areas surrounding large cities with a reputation for being poor, full of criminals and potential for creating islamists) being handled with a much "firmer" hand than OTL.

But France won't pull out an Afghanistan or an Irak. Algeria is too close for that and the relationship between the two countries is too much complicated. But you might see an even more "cordial" cooperation with Morocco and Tunisia in order to "contain" the terrorist problem. How funny since the Kings of Morocco (who, by the way, are francophile, with the last one giving a hell lot of money to rebuild Notre-Dame) are supposed to be the last true descendents of Muhammad.
 
Depending which way the planes hits the tower, lets say from the north east, think I'm right in saying there are quite a few embassies on would have been the 'flight path'? Wouldn't a goodly amount on what's left of the plane carry on?
 
Depending which way the planes hits the tower, lets say from the north east, think I'm right in saying there are quite a few embassies on would have been the 'flight path'? Wouldn't a goodly amount on what's left of the plane carry on?
There is barely an angle around the tower where a large aircraft wouldn't continue on into something significant.
 
The Eiffel Tower is such an iconic symbol of France in popular culture. Out of respect for the memory of its destruction, it will be treated like the WTC after 9/11 — and by that, I mean it will get subjected to weird media censorship, with new works of film and television erasing it to pretend that it never existed. Which means that the Eiffel Tower won't be referenced for French stereotype jokes in American cartoons.

Oh, that is so unlike the French!

There would be a memorial I’m sure, but there’s no way it gets erased from history like that. It’s not an office complex, it’s La France itself personified in that structure.
 
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