As it says on the tin. Is it possible for the Neo-Inca to sucessfully resist the Spanish at least to the degree the Maya did? AFAIK it took 20 years for the Neo-Inca to bridge the gap in technology. So, is it plausible?
WI/AHC: Neo-Inca state Survival?
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Didn’t at least some Maya resisted until the 17th century?
Manco Inca Yupanqui almost recaptured Cusco from the Spanish three years after Atahualpa's death. Assuming he's successful and the invaders are pushed into the coast while he controls the very defensible mountains, the Neo-Inca State will certainly last much longer, even if they still fall in the end.
Since the defention of neo my best guest is ( if you count this as the vilcabamba neo inca state even though some don't ) you can have manco inca take cuzco and have quiso in his desesperation Pizarro sends a large portion of his army to their deaths at the hands of quiso however before they can Take advantage and destroy lima Almagro returns from chile.
And decides ( since he did suffer loses ) not to siege cuzco and goes to defend lima
For this timeline to work manco has not get overconfident
In the olt due to quiso success he sent him to destroy lima which quiso tactics worked in not falta terrains And as person who lives in the city of lima most of the city is flat so attacking lima was a big mistake .
With that like @Vinization said the Spanish are with the coast and the inca with the highlands .
Certainly if they take Cusco (and/or Lima) that will prolong their existence by quite some time.
Deleted member 160141
No. I'm sorry, but I don't see any way for the Inca to survive once they've been driven into Vilcabamba.
If Pizarro didn't have such good luck and got massacred right at the start, everybody back home would write him off as a lost cause after failing to show up for the next decade. However, the Spaniards still have Mexico as a base of operations, so further expeditions will still happen every once in a while.
Better yet, if Cortez didn't have such absurdly good luck and got massacred before he could really organize the pre-existing rebellious elements in Mexico, the Spanish wouldn't dare send another expedition because Cortez's attempt was illegal and the governor in fact sent an army to stop him (only they switched sides after all his promises of gold put dollar signs in their eyes). With this combined total dead, the colony would be strapped for manpower and in no way prepared to start a fight with an enemy who knows about them and destroyed the last army that came their way. They'd probably open up diplomatic contact with the Aztecs and things would proceed from there.
I'm basing a lot of what follows after that on this.
It would be really helpful if Spain still had a major Islamic threat in North Africa (say, a stabler, stronger Morocco) and had to devote a large part of their Reconquista army to that fight. Historically, the Spanish had a major problem after the Reconquista: large bands of unemployed men who knew nothing but how to fight, many of whom had big debts to certain Italian banking houses. Faced with this threat to stability, the Crown marketed the idea of the New World heavily to the conquistadors, and may accepted, figuring that they'd get to continue their lifestyle of fighting, raping and looting there without any of those pesky bankers to serve them notices.
Perhaps the Spaniards have to fend off and conquer a stronger Morocco, and end up concentrating their forces on subjugating North Africa?
That way, the Spanish colonies would remain backwaters and would have to negotiate with local powers like the Aztecs.
If you keep the Aztecs in Mesoamerica as a block to Spanish expansion, the diseases will still spread, but they'll have a lot of time in Tawantinsuyu to deal with the diseases and get their economy back in order. In Mesoamerica, that's a somewhat dicey proposition since the Spaniards are still right next door.
For even better odds of survival, keep the Luub Mayapan together until the Spaniards arrive.
The longer the Spanish take to arrive and the less interested they are in conquest, the better.
Given enough time, other nations will come looking to make colonies in the New World. However, they'll take a while before they seriously expand into the South American interior, which leaves the Inca plenty of time to regroup and eventually expand outward again into Colombia and Argentina.
The major problem with this is that the Inca have a pure command economy. This is fine in the Andes, where the local climate and ecology make this the only viable system until the Industrial Revolution, but it's not good for the Chaco. Thus, I imagine the Inca will set up colonies in those areas, which will run their economy autonomously but still provide tribute for the government at Qosqo.
However, the Europeans do still arrive eventually, and they'll still settle the mouths of the Rio de Janeiro and Rio de la Plata. They'll probably even nab or two of these proposed Inca colonies eventually. My guess is that the Portuguese will come first, followed by French and English.
The only way I imagined that the Neo-Inca State may survive is if they had managed to establish a treaty of vassalage with the Spaniards, similarly to how in OTL the penultimate ruler of the Neo-Inca State had been negotiating surrendering to them (only this time they manage to become vassals instead) before he died in 1572 and Tupac Amaru became Sapa Inca (with the Spanish invading following the murder of their ambassadors)
Most of the Maya states were conquered by the 1550s, there was only a small population near the Peten basin that held out.
Have then not have just suffered an epidemic and a civil war, a strong, experienced leader to meet the Spanish, maybe some refugees from other conquered lands to warn the Incas so that guns and horses are not a complete surprise, then, they last longer.
Can you set up a tribute situation?
“Here is literally a ton of silver.
Take it and leave or have to fight every mile up the mountains, there and back, and never find this much wealth again.”
Then, ambush them when they come back.
“The next bunch of silver was too much for us to move. Go down this waterless, deep, trackless valley to where it is. Yes, through the area we have been preparing and training on for a year or more.”
Can you set up a tribute situation?
“Here is literally a ton of silver.
Take it and leave or have to fight every mile up the mountains, there and back, and never find this much wealth again.”
Then, ambush them when they come back.
“The next bunch of silver was too much for us to move. Go down this waterless, deep, trackless valley to where it is. Yes, through the area we have been preparing and training on for a year or more.”
Depends.
Precisely how long do you want it to survive?
Doing either (or both) of the above can give them a generation.
You want it to survive a really long time, open up the Isthmus.
The Spanish skip colonizing for the most part to get those Orient riches.
Alternatively, have the barrier reef go up to the barrier islands.
Mexico holds on a lot longer if everything has to come from east of Texas.
This is why I don't know to classify manco inca rebellion if successful as neo inca because they technically had been conquered by 1535
Well, I'm not the OP but my definition of the Neo-Inca state is what existed after the fall of the empire and the death of Atahualpa.
Well in that case manco inca winning ( depending on the total or near total victory) is the best bet