WI/AHC - France Annexes Taiwan and the Pescadores in the Sino-French War?

[damein fisher]

What if during the Sino-French war, France had done better, accomplishing Courbet's goal of annexing Furmosa and the Pescadores? How might this affect other colonies in the area, how might this affect other major issues in the area such as WW1, WW2 and decolonialism as a whole?

 

[DocJamore]

I'll split this into "how" could this happen and "what" would happen.

I am not sure how the French will do much better in this than they did in OTL. By this point the Chinese had figured out they could use their numbers advantage to wear down anyone through attrition. The French had a lot to lose and the Chinese could have escalated things by helping Vietnamese rebel. So you can see that the war in OTL ended well for the French. They got a bunch of concessions and things didn't escalate into a nightmare.

Now for the "what would happen". If the French have Taiwan than they probably got Hainan too. It was one of their goals. France will have completely upset the balance in the Far East. The USA will be pissed because of the open door policy. Britain will be pissed. You can forget about them joining the Entente. The Japanese are going to be pissed as well. We might see a Franco-Japanese war instead of a Russo-Japanese war. There might even be a Sino-Japanese alliance to contain France in the East. Speaking of Russia, they will probably benefit from this, and can more further into Manchuria while everyone is distracted. The Franco-Russian Alliance probably still happens. Russia will be able to use France's harbors on the pacific.

WW1 is butterflied obviously.

 

[Tanc49]

I'll split this into "how" could this happen and "what" would happen.

I am not sure how the French will do much better in this than they did in OTL. By this point the Chinese had figured out they could use their numbers advantage to wear down anyone through attrition. The French had a lot to lose and the Chinese could have escalated things by helping Vietnamese rebel. So you can see that the war in OTL ended well for the French. They got a bunch of concessions and things didn't escalate into a nightmare.

Not sure I completely agree with you. China got destroyed militarily, with its ports burned and very little to show on land as well. And the Vietnamese did rebel, quite heavily but got crushed repeatedly
However, the couple victories they had (Lang Son retreat) had a big effect on the French government, making Ferry fall. So to me, it's not as much that France couldn't have gotten Taiwan/Hainan if it really wanted it but rather that there was no political will to get it.
As far as I remember, France could have gotten Hainan but got Kwang Tchéou instead, as it gave it the advantage of mainland access to the Chinese market. What would have Formosa or Hainan had? France already had good ports in the region and not enough people to settle.

Now that means that the PoD you need is a stronger French government or, the easiest, no Lang Son telegram.

Now for the "what would happen". If the French have Taiwan than they probably got Hainan too. It was one of their goals. France will have completely upset the balance in the Far East. The USA will be pissed because of the open door policy. Britain will be pissed. You can forget about them joining the Entente. The Japanese are going to be pissed as well. We might see a Franco-Japanese war instead of a Russo-Japanese war. There might even be a Sino-Japanese alliance to contain France in the East. Speaking of Russia, they will probably benefit from this, and can more further into Manchuria while everyone is distracted. The Franco-Russian Alliance probably still happens. Russia will be able to use France's harbors on the pacific.

Agreed there

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

I think in a way, the Russo-Japanese War could still happen, it's just that it would effectively be France & Russia vs. Japan.

 

[Tanc49]

I think in a way, the Russo-Japanese War could still happen, it's just that it would effectively be France & Russia vs. Japan.

Given most of the Japanese army was trained by French officers OTL, that'd be an interesting butterfly! Who'd train them? In such a case, it would be almost an act of war against France...

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

The PoD probably wouldn't butterfly away the French military missions to Japan, but considering that since 1871, Japan was using Germany's army as a model for its own. I could see them utilizing German officers sooner and with much better effect.

 

[Tanc49]

The PoD probably wouldn't butterfly away the French military missions to Japan, but considering that since 1871, Japan was using Germany's army as a model for its own. I could see them utilizing German officers sooner and with much better effect.

Would German officers be any good for the Navy?
I'm thinking that if the French get Taiwan and Hainan, they might represent a bigger threat to Japan which means, they might not want French "infiltration". On the other hand, the Japanese wanted the best officers available and the best techniques and it would make sense they'd request the guys who curbstomped China.

My big question is what's the impact on the rest of the French colonial Empire. Getting Taiwan would mean a big redirection toward East Asia, and less forces devoted to West Africa. North Africa, at least Algeria and Tunisia would probably be French regardless but probably less the big swathe of Blue across the continent

 

[Citycat]

How would the British react to this? Was Taiwan important enough for Britain to care? Or was it of marginal importance and didn't matter?

This could have huge implications like butterflying away the Entente Cordial and possibly even the Fashoda Incident leading to war (in which the British would easily take Taiwan from France).

Then again, London might not care and it would make little difference in international diplomacy.

And Japan might not feel that threatened by a France possessing Taiwan. Keeping Korea out of Russian and Chinese hands was much more important to them.

I'm leaning towards it wouldn't make a huge difference except locally Taiwan would develop very differently from OTL.

Other than that, it would probably be seized by Japan during WWII, and then taken over by Chiang Kai Shek after the Chinese Civil War, as long as no massive butterflies are created.