WI: a better 19th century for the Habsburgs

The 19th century wasn't exactly the best of times for the House of Habsburg, with it beginning with Francis II being forced to renounce the title of Holy Roman Emperor, and though ultimately winning against Napoleon as part of the coalition against him, didn't quite make enough gains to make up for it. He was succeeded by the unremarkable Ferdinand I, whose hydrocephalus may have affected his thinking, and thus rendered him ineffective. The 1848 revolutions nearly saw Hungary break away, and while the accession of Franz Joseph stabilized things somewhat, he wasn't exactly the dynamic leader Austria needed in this time, as a quick succession of defeats in the 1860s (such as his brother Maximilian accepting the poisoned chalice of the Mexican throne, paying with his life in the process, losing German primacy to Prussia and then becoming an associate state in the process) gave way to a brief resurgence in the 1870s. However, the century was still overall a decline for the once mighty dynasty.

So what series of events would be best in order for the House of Habsburg to remain relevant and powerful in the 19th century?
 
The 19th century wasn't exactly the best of times for the House of Habsburg, with it beginning with Francis II being forced to renounce the title of Holy Roman Emperor, and though ultimately winning against Napoleon as part of the coalition against him, didn't quite make enough gains to make up for it. He was succeeded by the unremarkable Ferdinand I, whose hydrocephalus may have affected his thinking, and thus rendered him ineffective. The 1848 revolutions nearly saw Hungary break away, and while the accession of Franz Joseph stabilized things somewhat, he wasn't exactly the dynamic leader Austria needed in this time, as a quick succession of defeats in the 1860s (such as his brother Maximilian accepting the poisoned chalice of the Mexican throne, paying with his life in the process, losing German primacy to Prussia and then becoming an associate state in the process) gave way to a brief resurgence in the 1870s. However, the century was still overall a decline for the once mighty dynasty.

So what series of events would be best in order for the House of Habsburg to remain relevant and powerful in the 19th century?

A non-retarded heir for Franz II might be a good start, no?
 
A good, if somewhat late, start imo would be Austria successfully crushing the Hungarian Revolution by itself, without enlisting the aid of Russia to do it for them. Because of this, Russia doesn't feel betrayed by Austria refusing to join them in the Crimean War, as Russia doesn't see Austria as needing to repay the debt of crushing the Hungarians. Continue this on by having Radetzky die perhaps in 1860 or 1861 instead of in 1858, leading to him being able to assist Franz Josef in the war with France and Sardinia in 1859, and helping Austria win the Battle of Solferino and thus preserving Austria's rule in Lombardy. Finally, a better overall strategy for the Austro-Prussian War would go a long way as well, perhaps by attacking the disorganized Prussian 2nd Army, which was separated from the Prussian 1st and Elbe Armies, and attempting an invasion of Silesia afterward, causing the 1st and Elbe Armies to rush back North to Berlin in panic. As to what comes next, that is up to the reader of this thread to decide.
 
The 19th century was also an extremely intense one for the Habsburgs, so there are many options.

For starters,
A non-retarded heir for Franz II might be a good start, no?
This would make a universe of difference, though practically any of Franz II's siblings (having considerably greater imagination and ambition) would also have made good emperors. Maybe the pragmatic war hero Archduke Charles comes to the throne, or the relatively liberal Archduke John. Handling 1848 would be brutally hard for any ruler, but someone with a working brain and an appreciation for the carrot and not just the stick would help immeasurably.

The key to Austria having a good 19th century is not having it end trapped with Germany in diplomatic isolation. While Seleukeia's idea of crushing the Hungarian Revolution without Russian help would be ideal, I don't feel as if the Habsburgs could have decisively won without that help. An Austrian-only victory over Hungary would inevitably be a settlement, and would lead to a precursor of the legislative, financial, and political burden that was the Ausgleich. If Austria had stuck closer to its alliance with Russia, including more pro-Russian neutral activity during the Crimean War, they could possibly have overcome the natural competition between them for influence in the Balkans (maybe even an Austro-Russo partition of Ottoman Europe).

The other alternative is to pursue a close alliance with France, something both countries would be working against public opinion to achieve. Italy would be dramatically quieter without Napoleon III seeking adventure in that territory, and Bismarck's ambitions would also be dramatically curbed by such an alliance. At the same time, this would cost Vienna credibility among German nationalists.

For the Austro-Prussian War to be decisively won, Austria would effectively need a von Moltke to drastically reform the army, a Bismarck to protect that von Moltke from the tidal wave of criticism and bulldoze a number of civic reforms through, and a monarch willing to (however grudgingly) endorse both (bonus points if said monarch is clairvoyant). To do better in the Austro-Prussian War, Austria would need an earlier or quicker mobilization to get its troops to defend the Sudeten passes and better leverage their advantage of artillery over the crushing advantage of Prussia's infantry. Better and partially clairvoyant generals would help too.

Then there's the matter of the Ausgleich, and the dozens of different ways this could have been handled are worth a full post in themselves.
 
He was the best leader ever have, even better maria theresa, any other would have loss the empire and we would have see an small cislethania as a minor nation

Eh - while I'll give that FJ ensured things didn't spiral into oblivion for the Empire, he certainly wasn't flexible enough to make things better.
 
Eh - while I'll give that FJ ensured things didn't spiral into oblivion for the Empire, he certainly wasn't flexible enough to make things better.
To save the Hasburg you need a further POD in the XVIII century, one that killed the idea of ethno-centric state, that was his apex with US and French Revolutions...again they did used religion as an excuse of proto ethnicity..that is what make the hasburg unable to adapt, as everyone wanted a pie of the hasburg pie
 
To save the Hasburg you need a further POD in the XVIII century, one that killed the idea of ethno-centric state, that was his apex with US and French Revolutions...again they did used religion as an excuse of proto ethnicity..that is what make the hasburg unable to adapt, as everyone wanted a pie of the hasburg pie

To kill nationalism you'd have to somehow prevent the French Revolution, or a similar explosion of Enlightenment ideals in any of the great powers of Europe. That'd be a really heavy-handed POD, though. That's also ignoring the fairly complicated political realities of 19th-century Austria; many of the empire's nations had a nationalism that existed alongside a 'imperial patriotism.' Until they were all starving in the latter half of the First World War, most of the Austro-Hungarian population acknowledged the importance of their shared history and the geopolitical importance of a union of Central European peoples.

Franz Joseph is simultaneously the greatest and worst of the House of Habsburg-Lorraine. He came to the throne as a hardline reactionary that prevented the empire from disintegrating in the face of revolution and revolt, and steadily transitioned (as did the empire) into political liberalism, tolerance, and respect for democratic institutions. The man himself was so popular on an individual level that you had elderly Poles in Galicia keeping portraits of him in their house well into the 1920s. At the same time, the last thirty years of his reign (when reform or change of any kind needed to be undertaken) are characterized not by a lethargy so much as an unshakeable fatalism on his part. In his mind, Austria couldn't change, adapt and flourish so much as it could only hope to hold out against the changing times as long as possible. This was, at least in part, the product of the unrelentingly tragic personal life of Franz Joseph: The anarchy of his youth, his personal failure in the Battle of Solferino and how it permanently damaged his faith in his own army, the assassination of his wife, and the suicide of his only son and heir. The stoic personality this instilled in the Kaiser gave him a dignity and popularity across Europe, but came with a fundamental fear of taking risks (seeing as they always seemed to end in disaster).

In contrast to the benevolent and conservative-yet-tolerant views of his uncle, Franz Ferdinand was a reactionary chock full of huge ideas on overhauling Austria-Hungary that were (mostly) pretty good, and was on a personal level very difficult to like, especially if you were Hungarian. Crown Prince Rudolph, had he come to the throne early, would also have been an interesting ruler during the golden age of Austria leading up to WW1. "Interesting" may not be the same as "good," though. He was notably liberal in his views, and where Franz Joseph saw the throne as a duty set to him by god, Rudolph openly questioned the institution of monarchy - he might have given in a bit too much to nationalists, but given that he died at the age of 30, it's hard to say.

Reforming Austria would inevitably involve decentralizing it somewhat, but the ultimate challenge would be to decentralize it in a way that keeps it from flying apart while still appeasing nationalist and federalist elements of the empire.
 
To kill nationalism you'd have to somehow prevent the French Revolution, or a similar explosion of Enlightenment ideals in any of the great powers of Europe. That'd be a really heavy-handed POD, though. That's also ignoring the fairly complicated political realities of 19th-century Austria; many of the empire's nations had a nationalism that existed alongside a 'imperial patriotism.' Until they were all starving in the latter half of the First World War, most of the Austro-Hungarian population acknowledged the importance of their shared history and the geopolitical importance of a union of Central European peoples.

Franz Joseph is simultaneously the greatest and worst of the House of Habsburg-Lorraine. He came to the throne as a hardline reactionary that prevented the empire from disintegrating in the face of revolution and revolt, and steadily transitioned (as did the empire) into political liberalism, tolerance, and respect for democratic institutions. The man himself was so popular on an individual level that you had elderly Poles in Galicia keeping portraits of him in their house well into the 1920s. At the same time, the last thirty years of his reign (when reform or change of any kind needed to be undertaken) are characterized not by a lethargy so much as an unshakeable fatalism on his part. In his mind, Austria couldn't change, adapt and flourish so much as it could only hope to hold out against the changing times as long as possible. This was, at least in part, the product of the unrelentingly tragic personal life of Franz Joseph: The anarchy of his youth, his personal failure in the Battle of Solferino and how it permanently damaged his faith in his own army, the assassination of his wife, and the suicide of his only son and heir. The stoic personality this instilled in the Kaiser gave him a dignity and popularity across Europe, but came with a fundamental fear of taking risks (seeing as they always seemed to end in disaster).

In contrast to the benevolent and conservative-yet-tolerant views of his uncle, Franz Ferdinand was a reactionary chock full of huge ideas on overhauling Austria-Hungary that were (mostly) pretty good, and was on a personal level very difficult to like, especially if you were Hungarian. Crown Prince Rudolph, had he come to the throne early, would also have been an interesting ruler during the golden age of Austria leading up to WW1. "Interesting" may not be the same as "good," though. He was notably liberal in his views, and where Franz Joseph saw the throne as a duty set to him by god, Rudolph openly questioned the institution of monarchy - he might have given in a bit too much to nationalists, but given that he died at the age of 30, it's hard to say.

Reforming Austria would inevitably involve decentralizing it somewhat, but the ultimate challenge would be to decentralize it in a way that keeps it from flying apart while still appeasing nationalist and federalist elements of the empire.
Perhaps keep Felix zu Schwarzenberg alive rather than having him die in 1852? He could be the Bismarck Austria needs to reform itself in preparation for German Unification.
 
Perhaps keep Felix zu Schwarzenberg alive rather than having him die in 1852? He could be the Bismarck Austria needs to reform itself in preparation for German Unification.

Schwarzenberg was "Bismarckian" in that he was a very able diplomat and statesman, but lacked the same odd political temperaments as the Prussian. It would also be odd to imagine how he would handle a bid to reform the German Confederation - as the man behind the failure of the 1848 attempt at a German Empire, he had a inherent distrust of all liberal cause célèbre such as a united Germany. Bismarck was unusual among German aristocrats for being personally committed to a pan-German state, and was totally willing to exploit and work with the liberals and later socialists he despised. In essence, Schwarzenberg could make big plays like Bismarck, but he wasn't as liable to make lucrative deals with the devil like Bismarck did. Even with excellent political leadership, he'd be working against an army that had fallen into terrible complacency since its victories over Italian revolutionaries and the passing of Radetzky.

It's also worth speculating on what a Habsburg-united Germany would look like. Assuming the Austro-Prussian War ends in an Austrian victory, it would also be a victory of the legalist and federal structure of the German Confederation and of "states' rights," given the casus belli was surrounding the rule of Holstein. This would be a far cry from the North German Confederation created OTL, which was essentially "Prussia is Germany by right of conquest." Of course, this could all be turned on its head by having a different Austro-Prussian War begin with Austria being the aggressor making a big gamble for domination of Germany.

Either way, two big questions immediately spring up: What exactly is the place of Austria's non-German crownlands in this new empire (and if "outside it," what shape would that take) and how exactly would Prussia be integrated into the empire? The triumph of Prussia in uniting Germany with Bismarck's vaunted blood and iron meant that Germany was Prussian administration, military, and (wherever possible) culture expanded across more territories and people. The formidable Prussian state would probably come out of defeat to the Austrians bloodied and probably a bit resentful, and the influential Junkers probably wouldn't transfer their loyalty to a "foreign" emperor as easily as they did their same old king wearing a fancier crown. I doubt they'd try to break out of Germany, but they'd be a worrying political quantity in the new Germany at best (i.e. Bavaria in Imperial Germany but huge and with a great army and industry) or a force quietly seeking a change in Germany's management at worst (i.e. Prussia as usual in the German Confederation).
 
Top