WI: 1973 Chilean Coup fails
- Thread starter Vendaval
- Start date
Allende turn to a policy to arm his partisans, nationalising some company (specialy the transport company who refuse to move the goods, supporting by the CIA).
Chicago school lost his neoliberal laboratory.
Many lefist killed during the condor operation go to Chile and survive.
Chile give an access to the sea to Bolivia.
Allende resume his program with a new constitution.
Revolutionary electorals victories start earlier with an example of the socialist policy in Chile and the fact than the electoral way is possible (but with an armed people).
The second electoral victory of the revolutionaries on the continent maybe probably in Venezuela. OTL Jose Vicente Rangel run three time for election in 1973, 1978 and 1983. He never get more than 4%. But ITTL he can win the 1983 or the 1988 election if the left force weren't divided in many candidacy (OTL the left politic movment never totaly unite before the election of 1998, ITTL they learn from Chile than the unity make the strenght).
OTL Chile's GDP grow fewer than other LA country. Without neoliberal economic Policy GDP grow more. ITTL 2013 Chile have hight tech industry rather an economy based on the copper in OTL.
Victor Jara sing.
Chicago school lost his neoliberal laboratory.
Many lefist killed during the condor operation go to Chile and survive.
Chile give an access to the sea to Bolivia.
Allende resume his program with a new constitution.
Revolutionary electorals victories start earlier with an example of the socialist policy in Chile and the fact than the electoral way is possible (but with an armed people).
The second electoral victory of the revolutionaries on the continent maybe probably in Venezuela. OTL Jose Vicente Rangel run three time for election in 1973, 1978 and 1983. He never get more than 4%. But ITTL he can win the 1983 or the 1988 election if the left force weren't divided in many candidacy (OTL the left politic movment never totaly unite before the election of 1998, ITTL they learn from Chile than the unity make the strenght).
OTL Chile's GDP grow fewer than other LA country. Without neoliberal economic Policy GDP grow more. ITTL 2013 Chile have hight tech industry rather an economy based on the copper in OTL.
Victor Jara sing.
It's going to depend on how and why the coup fails. The nature of Pinochet's defeat is going to heavily shape how things develop in post-coup Chile. As I see it there's a few possible avenues, each of which would lead to different reactions on the world stage and domestically:
1) Allende calls on the people to resist, they take to the streets, and manage to grind the coup to a halt by massive, largely non-violent show of resistance. This assumes the soldiers who had the stomach to go against their government will not have the stomach to wade hip-deep in the blood of their fellow Chileans; unfortunately given their participation in later atrocities like the Stadium of Death that's a toss up and a risky proposition.
If it plays out like that then you could see similar popular resistance moves against authoritarian regimes spring up sooner in Latin America and elsewhere with the inspiring example of Pinochet's defeat by people power. Allende's legitimacy is going to be assured and politically he'll be untouchable.
2) Allende calls out the people and they show up with guns. I don't know how feasible it would be for enough of his supporters to have enough weapons for this to work but this one could go any number of ways, ranging from bloody street-fighting ending a one day coup to a protracted civil war to the army running over the broken bodies of brave, doomed civilian resisters while prying their weapons from their very cold, dead hands.
Either way it's going to be a bloody mess and even if Allende wins there's going to be reprisals in the aftermath; odds are this will look less good in the eyes of the media and elsewhere if Allende stays in power this way and it'll be much easier for Western media to portray him (falsely) as a communist dictator.
3) Someone blows the whistle on Pinochet & Co with convincing evidence, moving Allende's government to arrest the officers in question. This is probably the most low-key way to avert the coup attempt and would have the least obvious ripple effects since odds are the most that would happen is a short line-item about an attempted coup followed by a lot of military officers losing their jobs, their freedom, and in some cases their lives.
All in all it wouldn't change the situation too much for Allende once the dust settles and likely wouldn't give him a huge boost of popularity like option 1 would or option 2 could.
4) Instead of seeing the civilian population rise up against the coup you have, for an interesting twist, a mutiny against the officers leading the coup and the soldiers take care of it for Allende before anything really serious happens. This one strikes me as the least likely of all options simply because the logic of plotting a military coup implies, assuming the plotters have half a brain (which Pinochet clearly did), they are only going to reveal their plans to units and officers who are likely to follow through with their intentions. As such unless other military units uninvolved in the coup somehow find out in time and try to stop Pinochet, which gets us back into an option 2 scenario, it would be doubtful any of the units "in the know" would mutiny against their orders.
1) Allende calls on the people to resist, they take to the streets, and manage to grind the coup to a halt by massive, largely non-violent show of resistance. This assumes the soldiers who had the stomach to go against their government will not have the stomach to wade hip-deep in the blood of their fellow Chileans; unfortunately given their participation in later atrocities like the Stadium of Death that's a toss up and a risky proposition.
If it plays out like that then you could see similar popular resistance moves against authoritarian regimes spring up sooner in Latin America and elsewhere with the inspiring example of Pinochet's defeat by people power. Allende's legitimacy is going to be assured and politically he'll be untouchable.
2) Allende calls out the people and they show up with guns. I don't know how feasible it would be for enough of his supporters to have enough weapons for this to work but this one could go any number of ways, ranging from bloody street-fighting ending a one day coup to a protracted civil war to the army running over the broken bodies of brave, doomed civilian resisters while prying their weapons from their very cold, dead hands.
Either way it's going to be a bloody mess and even if Allende wins there's going to be reprisals in the aftermath; odds are this will look less good in the eyes of the media and elsewhere if Allende stays in power this way and it'll be much easier for Western media to portray him (falsely) as a communist dictator.
3) Someone blows the whistle on Pinochet & Co with convincing evidence, moving Allende's government to arrest the officers in question. This is probably the most low-key way to avert the coup attempt and would have the least obvious ripple effects since odds are the most that would happen is a short line-item about an attempted coup followed by a lot of military officers losing their jobs, their freedom, and in some cases their lives.
All in all it wouldn't change the situation too much for Allende once the dust settles and likely wouldn't give him a huge boost of popularity like option 1 would or option 2 could.
4) Instead of seeing the civilian population rise up against the coup you have, for an interesting twist, a mutiny against the officers leading the coup and the soldiers take care of it for Allende before anything really serious happens. This one strikes me as the least likely of all options simply because the logic of plotting a military coup implies, assuming the plotters have half a brain (which Pinochet clearly did), they are only going to reveal their plans to units and officers who are likely to follow through with their intentions. As such unless other military units uninvolved in the coup somehow find out in time and try to stop Pinochet, which gets us back into an option 2 scenario, it would be doubtful any of the units "in the know" would mutiny against their orders.
Depends on how over their support for the coup is and if any of it comes to light. In my understanding the US government didn't really go gung-ho on it until after Allende was safely dead; unless Kissinger does something uncharacteristically stupid or some underling slips up and blows their cover if nothing comes to light they should be alright.
John Farson
Banned
Any chance that the 1973 coup might have ended up like the 2002 Venezuelan coup attempt, under the right circumstances?
I think it's important to remember that Allende towards the end of his reign was a lot less popular than earlier. That's why Pinochet and the other Generals went at that particular point. So relying on mass demonstrations and popular support to save him is very risky.
Anyway without Pinochet Chile would be substantially poorer and on a similar level to its neighbours.
Anyway without Pinochet Chile would be substantially poorer and on a similar level to its neighbours.
Economic collapse. Keep in mind his policies were getting unsustainable. Of course, so was Pinochet's. So things still suck, just in a different way.
Because Allende was pretty much your standard Latin American left wing populist and sooner or later he would have run out of money and businesses to confiscate.
Grand Admiral Thrawn
Donor
Probably... in the late 1970's Argentina was agitating over some islands in the Beagle Conflict, but it was peaceably mediated by the Pope. No idea how more probable war is in TTL.
If not then, I will wonder how Chile reacts when Argentina goes after the Falklands. That is if they still try this episode of stupidity.
Grand Admiral Thrawn
Donor
My guess is mixed emotions, depending on how much influence the USSR has. Glad to denounce the last vestiges of British imperialism, etc. Worried how this muscular foreign policy (resolving border disputes by war) will turn out. If Chile and Argentina are friendlier, more professional (AIUI the best troops were on the Chile border) troops in the Falklands, plus the UK doesn't get information (I don't know the type Chile passed on, just that Thatcher was grateful for it). Someone else will have to tell what difference this makes on the war, and if the UK still wins (straight up fight they do, but if it drags out, a mediated peace is more likely).
Pinochet was very good at making a very small number of people very wealthy at the expense of everyone else. During Pinochet's regime real wages plummeted across the board, the domestic manufacturing sector rapidly contracted, and the benefits of Chicago Boys shock therapy went straight to the top or out of the country.
Pinochet's real economic record doesn't come close to matching the hype. This isn't to say Allende was facing smooth sailing but Pinochet's policies were only good for a very small number of people.
Funny how all the Pinochet apologists leave out the fact that many business interests in Chile and the United States were engaging in deliberate slowdowns, sabotage, and other forms of active non-cooperation with Allende leading to economic slowdown. The Shock Doctrine goes into the details but there's a lot in the economic slump facing Allende leading up to the coup in 1973 that was due to outside actors, bad faith actions, and larger socio-economic conditions far beyond the Chilean government's control.