Which pre-WWI crisis was likeliest to start a similar war?

Pericles

A notable feature of the leadup to WWI was the increasingly regular diplomatic crises between great powers and alliance blocs, though this is more obvious in hindsight. How do you think these crises compare with that of July 1914? So which do you think was likeliest to start a similar war? By similar, I mean most of the combatants are in the same matchup as IOTL and the conflict is similarly a Europe-wide and probably global war (of course some countries can be on different sides). The contenders that stand out to me are the two Moroccan crises, the 1908 Bosnian crisis and the Balkan Wars, but feel to use another scenario for this.

From there if WWI starts at this earlier time, how do you think the war and its outcome would be different?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
1908 Bosnia crisis is my favorite.

The Serbs were really getting up in Austria-Hungary's grill and cruisin' for a bruisin'.
 

Pericles

An interesting feature of the last two crises according to Christopher Clark is how enthusiastic the Allies of the 'belligerents' were, with Britain in 1911 and France in 1912 both strongly backing up their allies and claiming they were ready for war despite the crises being similarly to July 1914 only indirectly linked to them.
 
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