Where would a colonial minded Ming Empire have expand to?

[Remitonov]

I was thinking exactly, if the Han chinese "colonized/conquered" and assimilated southern china from 200bc-1ad, i dont see how they couldnt repeat the same thing with the taiwanese natives

The issue here is that Taiwan is separated from the Chinese mainland by sea. Southern China is not. Even to the present day, substantial minority populations still exist in southern China, but they're not too difficult to handle so long as the ruling government can simply march troops and settlers in. Having to do that using ships would put a lot more strain on logistics and the imperial treasury. Why bother with Taiwan when there's still land to settle at home? Pretty much no Chinese cared about it until someone else seized it from them and made it a mark of shame for Chinese civilization.

Again, that's not to say it's impossible to do. It's already been done IOTL. But Chinese colonization of Taiwan was driven by very different factors from the usual colonial projects by Western powers, namely by Western colonists that needed manpower from a nearby source, and later, the pressing need to resist an enemy that had seized control of the Chinese mainland.

 

[Oda]

I was thinking exactly, if the Han chinese "colonized/conquered" and assimilated southern china from 200bc-1ad, i dont see how they couldnt repeat the same thing with the taiwanese natives

The reason why southern China is gradually conquered from the Han all the way to Tang/Song dynasty is because the land is absolutely needed. For the Wu state during the three kingdoms period is to increases tax revenue and gain more population to throw at Cao Wei. For southern Song is to compensate for lands lost to the Jin dynasty.
Southern China is absolutely needed for strategic purposes. Taiwan isn’t needed even though there’s Chinese fisherman living there. There is zero reason or incentive for the various Chinese dynasties to take over it till the Qing came along and even they considered abandoning it as the island holds no values in their eyes

 

[Sarthak]

Chinese colonization of Taiwan was never imperial policy. It was only started by the Dutch in the 16th Century to procure labourers, and then by Ming remnants escaping the Qing Dynasty. Pretty much every Chinese empire left it to their own devices until Japan annexed it in 1895. Only after that did it came to the fore in Chinese nationalist thought as a blight to their pride that was, in their minds, eventually avenged with the retrocession after WWII.

Though the Qing Dynasty did want to leave Taiwan alone originally and only conquered it due to the necessity of stamping down on the island to render it useless as a staging point for Pro-Ming enemies, Taiwan was not 'ignored' under Qing rule. Far from it. Even inland major Chinese Viceroyalties like Shaangan or Sichuan didn't receive the amount of money, supplies and importance the Qing attached to Taiwan. The Shufan and Guiha Prefectures managed to maintain peace between the chinese and aborigines after the 1787 Rebellion and Taiwan was considered a remarkably stable province - untouched by the chaos on the mainland as such making it one of the richer provinces - until the Mudan Incident, and even then, it was both the chinese settlers and aborigines who fought back against Japan raising the Qing banners when the local Qing garrison was outnumbered and forced to retreat. From 1874 - 1895, Taiwan was basically a military fort given an island and the Qing fortifications, bunkers and layouts were the reason why Japan took around 8 years to pacify Taiwan in the end.
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As for the question, the only two options I can really see are Sri Lanka and Northern Philippines. When Kotte was conquered by Zheng He 1411, there was a huge chance that the pretenders that Ming wanted to back would be killed, but thankfully they were not and they were instead installed as pro-Chinese puppets, however due to the fear that their favored pretenders and their children would be killed off by their enemy pretenders, Zheng He had sent word to the Yongle Emperor to think about appointing a Chinese Prefect and/or Governor to the Kotte Kingdom, which in essentiality meant Annexation. Of course how long a hypothetical rule of China over Sri Lanka would last is entirely upon the butterflies that would be unleashed after such an event, but nevertheless, it would certainly be interesting.

The second of course is Northern Philippines. IOTL, the Ming Navy routinely set out to clear pirate dens who raided the Chinese coast on the Northern Filipino Coastlines, wiping out pirate dens. In 1449 it was advised to the Secretariat to keep an outpost in the region so that the travel cost of the fleet could be mitigated by a nearer outpost. It was thought about but rejected eventually due to the nearer problems with the new clashes with the Jurchen, Khalka and Tsangpo Tibetans to think about. If that had been given the go ahead, then an outpost could have been built that would eventually over time grow into a something like a colony.

As for others I don't really see it. If you ant to expand the Ming during their glory days, then making the Ming Reconquest of Vietnam lasting is a more viable option in my opinion.

 

[Gloss]

The issue here is that Taiwan is separated from the Chinese mainland by sea. Southern China is not. Even to the present day, substantial minority populations still exist in southern China, but they're not too difficult to handle so long as the ruling government can simply march troops and settlers in. Having to do that using ships would put a lot more strain on logistics and the imperial treasury. Why bother with Taiwan when there's still land to settle at home? Pretty much no Chinese cared about it until someone else seized it from them and made it a mark of shame for Chinese civilization.

Again, that's not to say it's impossible to do. It's already been done IOTL. But Chinese colonization of Taiwan was driven by very different factors from the usual colonial projects by Western powers, namely by Western colonists that needed manpower from a nearby source, and later, the pressing need to resist an enemy that had seized control of the Chinese mainland.

Hainan was colonized early. I don't really disagree that there was certainly some kind of psychological or political barrier to expansion there, but what I disagree on is the idea this island is particularly hard to colonize, the distance is probably deceptive as I believe currents to be detrimental to travel in and from the island, but in practice the island would be extremely easy to colonize when everything is taken together, both climate and natives are a small problem compared to whatever else that made the Chinese state or even population unwilling to colonize it.
To reiterate my main disagreement is the idea that if the Chinese state wants it would be extremely easy to colonize the island and not even because the sheer amount of resources the Chinese state would have, I'm pretty much of the opinion than even a state relegated to only Fujian would have a pretty easy time colonizing the island(as an example, Fujian would have had 1-3 million people throughout most of Chinese history, this would be 10-30 times the population of Taiwan or 3-9 times the density and of course the Chinese state is unified where the natives are not.

The reason why southern China is gradually conquered from the Han all the way to Tang/Song dynasty is because the land is absolutely needed. For the Wu state during the three kingdoms period is to increases tax revenue and gain more population to throw at Cao Wei. For southern Song is to compensate for lands lost to the Jin dynasty.
Southern China is absolutely needed for strategic purposes. Taiwan isn’t needed even though there’s Chinese fisherman living there. There is zero reason or incentive for the various Chinese dynasties to take over it till the Qing came along and even they considered abandoning it as the island holds no values in their eyes

Do you have some evidence for this thesis that southern(or south-western) expansion is better explained as burst of state-lead colonization done for military/foreign policy purposes?
As far as I know Ming and Qing settlement of Yunnan and Guizhou can't be explained by some external political need, it was rather gradual.

 

[Oda]

Though the Qing Dynasty did want to leave Taiwan alone originally and only conquered it due to the necessity of stamping down on the island to render it useless as a staging point for Pro-Ming enemies, Taiwan was not 'ignored' under Qing rule. Far from it. Even inland major Chinese Viceroyalties like Shaangan or Sichuan didn't receive the amount of money, supplies and importance the Qing attached to Taiwan. The Shufan and Guiha Prefectures managed to maintain peace between the chinese and aborigines after the 1787 Rebellion and Taiwan was considered a remarkably stable province - untouched by the chaos on the mainland as such making it one of the richer provinces - until the Mudan Incident, and even then, it was both the chinese settlers and aborigines who fought back against Japan raising the Qing banners when the local Qing garrison was outnumbered and forced to retreat. From 1874 - 1895, Taiwan was basically a military fort given an island and the Qing fortifications, bunkers and layouts were the reason why Japan took around 8 years to pacify Taiwan in the end.
---
As for the question, the only two options I can really see are Sri Lanka and Northern Philippines. When Kotte was conquered by Zheng He 1411, there was a huge chance that the pretenders that Ming wanted to back would be killed, but thankfully they were not and they were instead installed as pro-Chinese puppets, however due to the fear that their favored pretenders and their children would be killed off by their enemy pretenders, Zheng He had sent word to the Yongle Emperor to think about appointing a Chinese Prefect and/or Governor to the Kotte Kingdom, which in essentiality meant Annexation. Of course how long a hypothetical rule of China over Sri Lanka would last is entirely upon the butterflies that would be unleashed after such an event, but nevertheless, it would certainly be interesting.

The second of course is Northern Philippines. IOTL, the Ming Navy routinely set out to clear pirate dens who raided the Chinese coast on the Northern Filipino Coastlines, wiping out pirate dens. In 1449 it was advised to the Secretariat to keep an outpost in the region so that the travel cost of the fleet could be mitigated by a nearer outpost. It was thought about but rejected eventually due to the nearer problems with the new clashes with the Jurchen, Khalka and Tsangpo Tibetans to think about. If that had been given the go ahead, then an outpost could have been built that would eventually over time grow into a something like a colony.

As for others I don't really see it. If you ant to expand the Ming during their glory days, then making the Ming Reconquest of Vietnam lasting is a more viable option in my opinion.

>remarkably stable province

> every three years an uprising every five years a rebellion


Something aren’t right here

 

[Oda]

Hainan was colonized early. I don't really disagree that there was certainly some kind of psychological or political barrier to expansion there, but what I disagree on is the idea this island is particularly hard to colonize, the distance is probably deceptive as I believe currents to be detrimental to travel in and from the island, but in practice the island would be extremely easy to colonize when everything is taken together, both climate and natives are a small problem compared to whatever else that made the Chinese state or even population unwilling to colonize it.
To reiterate my main disagreement is the idea that if the Chinese state wants it would be extremely easy to colonize the island and not even because the sheer amount of resources the Chinese state would have, I'm pretty much of the opinion than even a state relegated to only Fujian would have a pretty easy time colonizing the island(as an example, Fujian would have had 1-3 million people throughout most of Chinese history, this would be 10-30 times the population of Taiwan or 3-9 times the density and of course the Chinese state is unified where the natives are not.

Do you have some evidence for this thesis that southern(or south-western) expansion is better explained as burst of state-lead colonization done for military/foreign policy purposes?
As far as I know Ming and Qing settlement of Yunnan and Guizhou can't be explained by some external political need, it was rather gradual.

Colonisation of Taiwan has been done over centuries by Chinese fisherman’s. Problem is that there’s again zero incentive for a government location in Nanjing/Beijing to actually sanction an integration of the island as a province. The fact is Taiwan do not offer anything of value the mainland already provides and is filled with indigenous peoples which again the government could theoretically clear out but it isn’t worth the time or effort when they have mongols or Jurchen khanates to deal with.

If u want any example of what drives the southern expansion look no further from the three kingdoms period when the Sun family lead a genocide of the southern peoples and conquer them for more resources to fight against their rivals up north

 

[Sarthak]

>remarkably stable province

> every three years an uprising every five years a rebellion


Something aren’t right here

Every Three Years an Uprising and Every Five Years a Rebellion was a saying during the Yongzheng Emperor's time, before 1787, and the point made is that after the 1787 Rebellion till 1895 Taiwan was stable yes.

 

[Oda]

Every Three Years an Uprising and Every Five Years a Rebellion was a saying during the Yongzheng Emperor's time, before 1787, and the point made is that after the 1787 Rebellion till 1895 Taiwan was stable yes.

Is a meme Smfh

 

[Gloss]

If u want any example of what drives the southern expansion look no further from the three kingdoms period when the Sun family lead a genocide of the southern peoples and conquer them for more resources to fight against their rivals up north

But weren't the main areas already well settled by Han people by the second Han dynasty? Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, my understanding is that the more open valleys would have already received 4 centuries of Chinese migration prior to the 3 kingdoms.
Like if the Han dynasty never fell, the Han would still be controlling most of "proper China" and even if we say effective colonization was slower it seems like it was ongoing and wasn't being stalled.

 

[Oda]

But weren't the main areas already well settled by Han people by the second Han dynasty? Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, my understanding is that the more open valleys would have already received 4 centuries of Chinese migration prior to the 3 kingdoms.
Like if the Han dynasty never fell, the Han would still be controlling most of "proper China" and even if we say effective colonization was slower it seems like it was ongoing and wasn't being stalled.

…no????
During the collapse of the Han dynasty although there’s centuries of Han migration southern China is still consider the frontier. Where tons of indigenous people lived.

Till Sun Ce and his family went total gamer on them and after that the southern Jin dynasty relocation to the south saw massive waves of Northern Hans coming into the south and that’s when Southern China truly became culturally Han Chinese.

Anyway yeah sure u could argued that if Han dynasty never fallen colonialisation by Han Chinese will continue but you could also argue that since it is AH the indigenous people there could also probably get their shit together and overthrow the Han Chinese authorities :V

 

[Gloss]

…no????
During the collapse of the Han dynasty although there’s centuries of Han migration southern China is still consider the frontier. Where tons of indigenous people lived.

Till Sun Ce and his family went total gamer on them and after that the southern Jin dynasty relocation to the south saw massive waves of Northern Hans coming into the south and that’s when Southern China truly became culturally Han Chinese.

It might have been considered a frontier later on even if it wasn't as wild as northerners that never set foot down south claimed, one article I read shows complete archeological sinification of places like Dian in Fujian by 100 CE, it's hard to find specific information in English about which areas were linguistically or culturally sinified and which weren't.

Anyway yeah sure u could argued that if Han dynasty never fallen colonialisation by Han Chinese will continue but you could also argue that since it is AH the indigenous people there could also probably get their shit together and overthrow the Han Chinese authorities :V

The Vietnamese did but I'm not sure how good the chances for Yue peoples in Guangdong or others in Fujian and farther north are, the population disparity between the north and the south seems to have been sizeable.

 

[kasumigenx]

The second of course is Northern Philippines. IOTL, the Ming Navy routinely set out to clear pirate dens who raided the Chinese coast on the Northern Filipino Coastlines, wiping out pirate dens. In 1449 it was advised to the Secretariat to keep an outpost in the region so that the travel cost of the fleet could be mitigated by a nearer outpost. It was thought about but rejected eventually due to the nearer problems with the new clashes with the Jurchen, Khalka and Tsangpo Tibetans to think about. If that had been given the go ahead, then an outpost could have been built that would eventually over time grow into a something like a colony.

Only Kaboloan/Pangasinan and Ilocos would be under the Chinese in that scenario since that is the area which China made interactions with since China considers the majority of Luzon a Majapahit territory or under their suzerainty at that time and off-limits to them.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think another area that the Chinese could colonize or make a puppet is the Sulu Sultanate.

 

[Sarthak]

Only Kaboloan/Pangasinan and Ilocos would be under the Chinese in that scenario since that is the area which China made interactions with since China considers the majority of Luzon a Majapahit territory or under their suzerainty at that time and off-limits to them.

True, however it could be - under a set of circumstances depending on the butterflies - a launching point for expansion into Luzon.

 

[kasumigenx]

True, however it could be - under a set of circumstances depending on the butterflies - a launching point for expansion into Luzon.

The Chinese were only aware of the existence of Pangasinan/Caboloan which was a Chinese vassal at that time and they consider the other areas as parts of Majapahit, and Luzon was not called Luzon during that time.

I think the Chinese would expand to Annam and Xinjiang before they will consider to expand in other places.

 

[Sarthak]

The Chinese were only aware of the existence of Pangasinan/Caboloan which was a Chinese vassal at that time and they consider the other areas as parts of Majapahit, and Luzon was not called Luzon during that time.

Hard to believe considering early Ming records to show maps of the Philippines and Northern Borneo, albeit they aren't very detailed and the shapes were far from accurate. The Chinese were aware of the archipelago as early as the Tang, though the Tang maps often resembled potatoes.
Though yes, Luzon wasn't called Luzon at the time, I simply meant the general area.

 

[kasumigenx]

Hard to believe considering early Ming records to show maps of the Philippines and Northern Borneo, albeit they aren't very detailed and the shapes were far from accurate. The Chinese were aware of the archipelago as early as the Tang, though the Tang maps often resembled potatoes.
Though yes, Luzon wasn't called Luzon at the time, I simply meant the general area.

I think the Chinese are more likely to colonize Sulu and Palawan as the next step after securing Annam since the Chinese had already migrated there IOTL.