Where Were You When The Tower Fell?

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

10:08 PM, Friday, Feb. 20th 1981.

For more than an hour, Aerolineas Argentinas Flight 342 from Miami has been circling JFK, waiting permission to land. Heavy fog has cut visibility to less than a half mile, and the overworked air traffic controllers are having a very bad night. It's about to get a lot worse.

The NTSB report blames pilot error; tapes clearly show he was assigned a holding pattern at 2700 feet, but (for unknown reasons) began a descent towards the airport. Equipment failure was a contributing factor; a radar system should have alerted air traffic controllers the plane was below its assigned altitude, but failed to do so [1]. Weather was the final factor; the dense fog prevented the crew from seeing the North Tower of the World Trade Center until a few seconds before impact.

In theory, the tower had been designed to withstand this exact scenario; but the engineers did not consider the inferno that would result from several floors full of flammable office furniture and paper documents being doused in thousands of gallons of flaming jet fuel. Even if the tower had been built with sprinkler systems, the NYFD probably would not have been able to stop such a massive fire; and despite a truly valiant effort, the structure collapses just before dawn.

The South Tower remains standing, but is so badly damaged at this point that it has to be brought down by controlled demolition three months later. Until then, much of Lower Manhattan remains cordoned off.

- - - - -

This is not an good start to Reagan's first year in office. PATCO probably goes on strike in March; this all happened precisely because of issues like faulty equipment and controller overwork that the FAA has been ignoring for years), and public opinion will be mostly on their side. Reagan won't be able to fire them without looking like he's punishing whistleblowers. Mid-level scapegoats in the FAA will be fired instead.

Socially, this probably leads to even worse malaise for New York City and the country as a whole. This isn't something to rally our patriotic spirit like 9/11, it's just a stupid accident that killed 500 innocent people and caused billions of dollars in property and economic loss. There will be a Neil Diamond tribute song.

Thoughts?


[1] In OTL, the minimum-altitude warning system alerted controllers less than a minute before AR342 would've hit the WTC, and they were able to warn the pilot. This system had only been in place for a month or so and had seldom worked.

 

[Sir Scott]

Interesting concept , I have my doubts over plausability , but i think that we can let that slide just to see what happens

i suppose the main consequence is what happens on 11/9/01 instead. i wuld suggest that one of two scenarios could have happened

1) at some point during the 1990s (i would suggest 1996 , perhaps the same cell that attempted the world trade centre bombing) ,an international terrorist organisation ,seeing the potential iluminated by the trade centre crash of 1981, uses a 9/11 style attack against a target in america or europe

OR

2) if it took the imagination of osama to concuct a 9/11 (even with the added inspiration of the 1981 accident) then it is likely that the empire state building wiuld have been a target , an event that may have killed many more foriegners and whipped up significantly more western support for the war on terror in OTL. However, there is a chance that the ESB may not have collapsed like the twin towers. after all , it survived a impact by a large WWII bomber with reletively minor damage.

Either way , i think we can still see a war on terror emerging , as the conditions that created it strech far deeper into history than 9/11. At some point Islamic Terrorism would have come to the US , providing just the same trigger ,and just the same target for the US government to take advantage of

plus, im pretty sure it would drive the conspiracy theorists wild

Sir scott
-guy from the dwarf


PS: in OTL i was at school when the towers fell, i got home just in time to see the second one go.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

10:08 PM, Friday, Feb. 20th 1981.

For more than an hour, Aerolineas Argentinas Flight 342 from Miami has been circling JFK, waiting permission to land. Heavy fog has cut visibility to less than a half mile, and the overworked air traffic controllers are having a very bad night. It's about to get a lot worse.
...

In theory, the tower had been designed to withstand this exact scenario; but the engineers did not consider the inferno that would result from several floors full of flammable office furniture and paper documents being doused in thousands of gallons of flaming jet fuel. Even if the tower had been built with sprinkler systems, the NYFD probably would not have been able to stop such a massive fire; and despite a truly valiant effort, the structure collapses just before dawn.

Wasn't one of the reasons the 9/11 attack was so successful at taking down the towers that the airliners were FULL of fuel? If an Argentine plane is trying to land, and has been circling for a half hour, the fuel tanks will be close to empty.

Still, Reagan not being able to simply fire the entire Air Traffic control system would be a great thing!

 

[Boom22]

I was eating breakfast when they fell I threw up. My parents were flying to New York. They made BTW.

This is an intersting concept it depends on who claims responsibility, but that doesn't matter the USA will think the Sovs did it *gulp*

 

[83gemini]

It will help Regan look Reganesque though. Presidents tend to well off disasters unless they bungle them.

It might help NYC by getting federal funding to prime the pump for development in Lower Manhattan. But I don't know enough about NYC politics.

An interesting PoD for sure. You should run with it.

 

[Xen]

I was eating breakfast when they fell I threw up. My parents were flying to New York. They made BTW.

This is an intersting concept it depends on who claims responsibility, but that doesn't matter the USA will think the Sovs did it *gulp*

Not in 1981, Iran will likely get the blame, allied closely with Saddam Hussein, the US and Iraqi troops launch a joint attack on the Islamic Republic.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

This is an intersting concept it depends on who claims responsibility, but that doesn't matter the USA will think the Sovs did it *gulp*

The official conclusion will be that it's an accident; this timeline is based on an actual near-miss in 1981 (an airliner came within seconds of hitting the WTC in the fog, before an air traffic controller spotted the danger and ordered the plane to turn hard right).

 

[stagepropaganda]

But knowing American tendencies, the official conclusion and what is actually said are two totally different things. I'm inclined to believe that the official investigation would conclude that the crash was an accident, but that the media and the public would jump to the conclusion that it was an attack on American soil, probably by Iran. They would demand some sort of retaliation.

 

[Dutchie]

Not necessarily - there have been (unfortunately) many plane crashes over the decades that were accepted as accidents, and not immediately jumped on as a terrorist attack. I think most of the posters here are looking at the world with post 9/11 eyes, since the prospect of "it's terrorists!" was the first assumption out of the gate. The Soviets were the boogey-men of the day, and it would be fairly easy to figure out it wasn't them (the famous hotline to Moscow).

I think some of MBR's ideas in the OP are intersting - if NYC loses such a large amount of it's office space at a time when the city was experiencing financial and cultural doldrums, what happens next? Many more of the companies that had headquartered there would find a reason to relocate - either to another US city or over-seas - as there's no patroitic call to "get back to normal so the bastards don't win". I could see London gaining more status as the financial capital of the world, although it had it's own problems back then as well. Maybe Frankfurt instead, and a shift away from anglo-capitalism?

NYC had it's governance problems throughout the 70's and 80's, so if suddenly billions in Fed $'s start flowing in for reconstruction, a lot would probably disappear in graft and waste. So, more disgust with local govenrment and more middle-class flight to the suburbs and beyond. A vicious circle of damaged city-provided services leading to contiued decline.

There may also be a general move away from tall buildings as a safety risk - again, no need to overcome adversity here, just an example of how dangerous they can be.

 

[Uncle Mike]

Not in 1981, Iran will likely get the blame, allied closely with Saddam Hussein, the US and Iraqi troops launch a joint attack on the Islamic Republic.

How would Iran get blamed for an Argentine plane combining with American technical error for a massive screwup? The American people may have voted overwhelmingly for Reagan (or, at least, to fire Jimmy Carter) just three months earlier, but they're not THAT stupid.

 

[Uncle Mike]

I think some of MBR's ideas in the OP are intersting - if NYC loses such a large amount of it's office space at a time when the city was experiencing financial and cultural doldrums, what happens next? Many more of the companies that had headquartered there would find a reason to relocate - either to another US city or over-seas - as there's no patroitic call to "get back to normal so the bastards don't win". I could see London gaining more status as the financial capital of the world, although it had it's own problems back then as well. Maybe Frankfurt instead, and a shift away from anglo-capitalism?

NYC had it's governance problems throughout the 70's and 80's, so if suddenly billions in Fed $'s start flowing in for reconstruction, a lot would probably disappear in graft and waste. So, more disgust with local govenrment and more middle-class flight to the suburbs and beyond. A vicious circle of damaged city-provided services leading to contiued decline.

Ed Koch was Mayor. He would have demanded that whatever was possible to help the City to bounce back be done. He was a shameless promoter of both himself and the City. He would not have accepted six years of a hole in the ground as Massachusetts Mike Bloomberg has done.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Ed Koch was Mayor. He would have demanded that whatever was possible to help the City to bounce back be done. He was a shameless promoter of both himself and the City.

Good point: if he's able to bring in truckloads of federal disaster funding and make sure the money is not 100% wasted, no doubt he can capitalize on this to win the 1982 governor's race instead of Cuomo...

 

[torque7844]

But knowing American tendencies, the official conclusion and what is actually said are two totally different things. I'm inclined to believe that the official investigation would conclude that the crash was an accident, but that the media and the public would jump to the conclusion that it was an attack on American soil, probably by Iran. They would demand some sort of retaliation.

Have to disagree. You're looking at reactions through the lens of 9/11. When Challenger blew up the immediate reaction was "The Libyans" but it became immediately apparent that it was mechanical error and that was that.

EDIT: Bear in mind that in 1981 most Americans haven't even considered the idea of Islamic terrorism beyond the Iranian hostage crisis. The bombings of the American embassy in Beirut and the Marine barracks in Beirut won't happen until 1983, TWA 847 won't be hijacked until 1985, and Pan Am 103 won't be blown up until 1988. END EDIT

In this case, with an Argentinian plane, weather factors, and the fact that the plane had been circling for so long before the incident, and a lack of any radio or IFF transponder information to indicate a terrorist incident of some sort it would be highly implausible for Iran to take the blame. If anyone is going to get looked at it will be the Big Bad Russian Bear, but the evidence won't ... um ... bear out ... such a conclusion.

All that being said, Regan and Koch will no doubt take advantage of the situation to showcase their ability to lead in a crisis. Reagan is already flying high from the perception that it was him that secured the release of the hostages from the American embassy in Tehran. An event like this will only reinforce his image as a crisis leader.

As has already been note, Koch will likely be able to rally the event into another term as NYC mayor.

There will certainly be a call for a revamp of the ATC system in general, and aircraft safety systems in particular.

 

[pieman3141]

I'd have to agree that the idea of Americans blaming terrorists at that time is simply stupid and anachronistic.

Most likely, New York gets the shaft, and Reagan, due to this being an accident rather than an act of terrorism, gets a lower chance of being elected.