When is UK/France most likely to recognize the CSA?

This seems to be a somewhat less than fair statement Mr. Featherstone. The 1832 Reform act was a long time ago. Chartism has been and gone but the Reform league is going strong and in 1859 the Liberals were formed. Marx found it possible to write and publish the Manifesto in Britain, could the same have been said of the USA in this period. The Tolpuddle Martyrs were released in 1836 and Unionism (real Unionism not support for the USA) is growing. The franchise in the USA covers no greater percentage of the population than it does in Britain. So I suggest your argument that this period predates true mass politics does not really hold water.

I would suggest precisely this. The Reform Bill of the 1830s was a far cry from universal manhood suffrage. That would not come until much later in the 19th Century. The USA, by contrast, had universal manhood suffrage for white men, and even the vote for some free blacks in New England (where in the UK I assure you Indians had no say-so in the emerging Raj of the time, neither the EIC or the Viceroys of India wanted that).
 
Except that you're making a claim about the British public from newspapers in an era that still predated true mass politics in the British isles, and when newspapers were emphatically not so much voices of the masses as miniature political machines in their own right.
I’m well aware of the limitations of using newspapers- I notice you’ve made no suggestion as to what we should replace them with. You can use public meetings, but given what I pointed out with Manchester I’d suggest they’re hardly an impartial source of evidence on public opinion. Alternatively you can look at the views of individuals on what public opinion was at the time: those are just as biased as those of newspaper editors, but without the incentive of circulation figures to persuade them to get it halfway right. Incidentally, exactly which axe do you think the Illustrated London News have to grind?

The focus in this thread on fractions of the electorate entitled to vote is a bit bizarre- it reminds me of the debate over £6 rental vs rating franchises in 1867. Nobody seems to appreciate that by disregarding the mechanical issue of suffrage you come to understand Britain as a mass participatory political society in which actual voting is the final, not the only, stage of the process. The reason that voting isn’t by ballot is because individuals are responsible to the community for their vote as well as to their own conscience. By getting down to the grassroots and looking at the role non-electors play, you understand that they’re highly active, organised, and integrated into contemporary political machines. They share platforms, they organise meetings, they canvass, they take part in the initial poll by voice- and they’re just as ready to threaten local shop-owners with sanctions as landowners are ready to threaten their tenants with expulsion for voting the wrong way.

And claiming Palmerston as some voice of reason is rather hilarious, we're talking a guy who waged a narco-war on a society just because it didn't want anything the British Empire was offering it, on the basis that "uppity foreigners" shouldn't back-talk their "British superiors".
I could offer a trenchant defence of Palmerston’s conduct towards China, but why bother? It’s got nothing to do with what we’re talking about. The fact is that, excluding the period between 24th September 1862 (“It seems to Russell and me that the Time is fast approaching where some joint offer of Mediation… might be made with some Prospect of Success”, Palmerston to Gladstone) and 22nd October 1862 (“I am however inclined to agree with Lewis that at present we would take no steps nor make any communication of a distinct proposition with any advantage”, Palmerston to Russell) Palmerston holds a consistent course of non-intervention towards the American Civil War. That was not only the right course, but it was the popular one- and the public weren’t backward in making this known. Two extracts from a report of Palmerston’s speech to a group of working-men (make of that definition what you will) at Glasgow:
“There are some who wish success to the North, there are others who desire to see the separation of the South from the North. It is not fitting or becoming that the British nation as a nation should take part in that contest (loud cheers)”
“We should be most happy if it had been in the power of this country, by amicable interposition, to reconcile these conflicting parties; but we felt, and we know that any attempt of that kind, in the existing state of things, would have an effect the very reverse of that which was intended (hear, hear)” (Caledonian Mercury, April 1st 1863)

Perhaps you are right, though, in that I shouldn’t portray Palmerston as the voice of reason. After all, it’s hardly the act of a rational man to unilaterally declare that Portuguese captains carrying slaves will be hung as pirates, to tell the Portuguese that they can declare war if they choose, and then quietly extend the rule to include Brazil several months later. It doesn’t make sense to station a fleet at great expense off the West African coast when any ship can hoist an American flag and avoid being searched, and it isn’t particularly rational to station a fleet off the coast of Cuba and almost provoke a war by searching slave ships bearing the American flag. It’s even less rational, when a Royal Navy captain lands a small force at Gallinas to liberate 841 slaves and destroy four Spanish slave barracoons in probable violation of international law, to write to the Admiralty accepting full responsibility and recommending that the captain be promoted. Perhaps what Palmerston should have looked at the situation, said “I have no purpose, directly or indirectly, to interfere with the institution of slavery in the states where it exists. I believe I have no lawful right to do so, and I have no inclination to do so”, and left it at that.
 
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I was recently at the Antietam site, and the movie that played there claimed largely that if the Union strategically as well as tactically lost Antietam, Britain and France were likely to attempt to mediate the American conflict, and recognize the CSA, giving the South its independence.
Returning more directly to the topic- OP, your video misstated the case. The approach was never going to be Britain and France, because, as Gladstone explained in the memorandum he submitted to cabinet in October:

"The interference which the case requires is an expression of opinion, or a course of action, on the part of such combination of the Powers as may virtually and constructively convey the prevailing judgement of the civilised world. The union of England and France would not sufficiently answer to this definition, for France, by her Mexican policy, has in some degree compromised her impartial, above all her unsuspected, position in American affairs. The union of England, France, and Russia would probably fulfil the definition."

The reason for including Russia was that "Russia supplies in the largest measure the one vital element, otherwise deficient, of traditional and unquestioned friendliness to America". Whether Russia was likely to support an international effort to support a separatist movement, given that less than two months after the memorandum was written she was attempting to put down a separatist movement in Poland, I'll leave for you to decide.
 
The biggest problem is that GB had little to gain and a lot to lose if it intervened. Recognition without intervention is a losing proposition as it would merely piss off the North without helping the South. I don't think Lincoln would allow a war to break out over recognition itself but it would result in a cooling of relations which might bite GB in the back the next time a European war breaks out. Actual intervention would result in war. In the best scenario GB loses its profitable trade with the North which would result in a large increase in food prices and seizure of all British assets in the North. This would crash the London Exchange as GB had very large investments in the US, mostly in the North. In a worst case scenario that happens and the lose all of the Canada that isn't on the coast.
 
I’m well aware of the limitations of using newspapers- I notice you’ve made no suggestion as to what we should replace them with. You can use public meetings, but given what I pointed out with Manchester I’d suggest they’re hardly an impartial source of evidence on public opinion. Alternatively you can look at the views of individuals on what public opinion was at the time: those are just as biased as those of newspaper editors, but without the incentive of circulation figures to persuade them to get it halfway right. Incidentally, exactly which axe do you think the Illustrated London News have to grind?

The focus in this thread on fractions of the electorate entitled to vote is a bit bizarre- it reminds me of the debate over £6 rental vs rating franchises in 1867. Nobody seems to appreciate that by disregarding the mechanical issue of suffrage you come to understand Britain as a mass participatory political society in which actual voting is the final, not the only, stage of the process. The reason that voting isn’t by ballot is because individuals are responsible to the community for their vote as well as to their own conscience. By getting down to the grassroots and looking at the role non-electors play, you understand that they’re highly active, organised, and integrated into contemporary political machines. They share platforms, they organise meetings, they canvass, they take part in the initial poll by voice- and they’re just as ready to threaten local shop-owners with sanctions as landowners are ready to threaten their tenants with expulsion for voting the wrong way.

That's because there is no actual measurement of what John Q. Bull thought of a civil war in some faraway country of which he knew nothing. The average Briton in all probability simply put didn't give two shakes of a rat's ass about a civil war in the United States. They had more pressing matters in the countryside and in the hellholes that were early Victorian factories to worry about from day to day. Public opinion at this time is not a measurement of the masses in any serious sense, so there's no sense in pointing to what does not in fact exist.

I could offer a trenchant defence of Palmerston’s conduct towards China, but why bother? It’s got nothing to do with what we’re talking about. The fact is that, excluding the period between 24th September 1862 (“It seems to Russell and me that the Time is fast approaching where some joint offer of Mediation… might be made with some Prospect of Success”, Palmerston to Gladstone) and 22nd October 1862 (“I am however inclined to agree with Lewis that at present we would take no steps nor make any communication of a distinct proposition with any advantage”, Palmerston to Russell) Palmerston holds a consistent course of non-intervention towards the American Civil War. That was not only the right course, but it was the popular one- and the public weren’t backward in making this known. Two extracts from a report of Palmerston’s speech to a group of working-men (make of that definition what you will) at Glasgow:
“There are some who wish success to the North, there are others who desire to see the separation of the South from the North. It is not fitting or becoming that the British nation as a nation should take part in that contest (loud cheers)”
“We should be most happy if it had been in the power of this country, by amicable interposition, to reconcile these conflicting parties; but we felt, and we know that any attempt of that kind, in the existing state of things, would have an effect the very reverse of that which was intended (hear, hear)” (Caledonian Mercury, April 1st 1863)

Perhaps you are right, though, in that I shouldn’t portray Palmerston as the voice of reason. After all, it’s hardly the act of a rational man to unilaterally declare that Portuguese captains carrying slaves will be hung as pirates, to tell the Portuguese that they can declare war if they choose, and then quietly extend the rule to include Brazil several months later. It doesn’t make sense to station a fleet at great expense off the West African coast when any ship can hoist an American flag and avoid being searched, and it isn’t particularly rational to station a fleet off the coast of Cuba and almost provoke a war by searching slave ships bearing the American flag. It’s even less rational, when a Royal Navy captain lands a small force at Gallinas to liberate 841 slaves and destroy four Spanish slave barracoons in probable violation of international law, to write to the Admiralty accepting full responsibility and recommending that the captain be promoted. Perhaps what Palmerston should have looked at the situation, said “I have no purpose, directly or indirectly, to interfere with the institution of slavery in the states where it exists. I believe I have no lawful right to do so, and I have no inclination to do so”, and left it at that.

Actually it has everything to do with what we're talking about: Palmerston approved of a war to force opium down the throats of the Qing Empire's authorities on the drop of a hat, so he's not a voice of reason in the British leadership at the time. That would be someone more like Gladstone or Disraeli. And it's also not as if the Union cause didn't lack for friends in the British elite, either. Most Britons, however, were too busy trying to eke out a living in the great Victorian nightmare to worry about who did what to whom in the US Civil War. It was as irrelevant to them as the Congo War is to people in the UK and USA today. But I'm also neither blessed with the time nor the patience to inform people who refuse to listen as to the reality of claiming the Union and the Confederacy were moral equals on the matter of slavery. If you're this insistent on pulling an Anatoly Fomenko don't let me stop you.
 
That’s a hell of a lot of bile but not an awful lot of content. About the only things to respond to are:

The average Briton in all probability simply put didn't give two shakes of a rat's ass about a civil war in the United States. They had more pressing matters in the countryside and in the hellholes that were early Victorian factories to worry about from day to day.
Most Britons, however, were too busy trying to eke out a living in the great Victorian nightmare to worry about who did what to whom in the US Civil War. It was as irrelevant to them as the Congo War is to people in the UK and USA today
“Crowds gathered daily to get news of the war. In Stalybridge, for example, they met at the railway station and various newsagents to read about the latest developments…. Years later, Samuel Fielden, one of the Haymarket martyrs, recalled that every night during the summer, crowds would gather in the small textile town of Todmorden, which straddled Lancashire and Yorkshire, ‘discussing the latest news and forecasting the next, and in these groups there was always to be heard the advocates and champions of both sides’.” RJM Blackett, Divided Hearts, p143.

But I'm also neither blessed with the time nor the patience to inform people who refuse to listen as to the reality of claiming the Union and the Confederacy were moral equals on the matter of slavery.
Try reading what I said. Did I claim that the Union and the Confederacy were moral equals- or did I say the contemporary British view was that they were?
 
That’s a hell of a lot of bile but not an awful lot of content. About the only things to respond to are:



“Crowds gathered daily to get news of the war. In Stalybridge, for example, they met at the railway station and various newsagents to read about the latest developments…. Years later, Samuel Fielden, one of the Haymarket martyrs, recalled that every night during the summer, crowds would gather in the small textile town of Todmorden, which straddled Lancashire and Yorkshire, ‘discussing the latest news and forecasting the next, and in these groups there was always to be heard the advocates and champions of both sides’.” RJM Blackett, Divided Hearts, p143.


Try reading what I said. Did I claim that the Union and the Confederacy were moral equals- or did I say the contemporary British view was that they were?
Unless this is a different poster with the same username, yes, you said exactly that:

However, the contemporary attitude was very much that both sides were as bad as the other and there wasn't much to gain from being involved- an attitude that Palmerston shared.
 
Unless this is a different poster with the same username, yes, you said exactly that:

However, the contemporary attitude was very much that both sides were as bad as the other and there wasn't much to gain from being involved- an attitude that Palmerston shared.

Exactly, what does GB gain from the huge expense of fighting a war with the US, losing all its investments in the US, losing food shipments from US, losing US purchases of war material and having its stock market crash? Cotton? That was worth a small fraction of what it would cost!
 
Unless this is a different poster with the same username, yes, you said exactly that:
You missed the point, so let me spell it out for you: just because I argue that the contemporary view was that the Union and Confederacy were moral equals doesn't mean that I believe the same thing. If we'd been talking about Victorian views of disease, would you have assumed that I wasn't aware of germ theory and thought that illnesses were caused by bad smells?
 

frlmerrin

Banned
If we go by white male suffrage the USA had universal male suffrage long before the UK did.

Same as I asked 67th Tigers can I have some evidence for this please?

I also want to know why you think it is acceptable to exclude non-whites and females from the count?
 
Same as I asked 67th Tigers can I have some evidence for this please?

I also want to know why you think it is acceptable to exclude non-whites and females from the count?

Um, because everybody did so at the time? Only the UK and USA had universal suffrage for white people before WWII, other European countries went to female suffrage after it (while in Eastern and Central Europe totalitarianism would keep on trucking until the 1990s no matter what the official "suffrage" was).

http://science.jrank.org/pages/8958/Democracy-Threat-Promise-Mass-Democracy.html

http://www.academicamerican.com/jeffersonjackson/topics/jacksoniandemocracy.html

http://www.course-notes.org/US_History/Notes/The_American_Pageant_11th_Edition_Textbook_Notes/Chapter_13_The_Rise_of_Jacksonian_Dem


http://www.kansaspress.ku.edu/coljac.html

Where by contrast the UK adopted universal suffrage for men over the age of 21 in the year 1918. While the USA's adoption of it was also an uneven process, and there were people, particularly in the South, never fully reconciled to it that it existed at all was unprecedented at the time and was one reason it was bashed so much by early European societies where the legacy of the First Republic in France had left universal suffrage with a sour taste.
 

frlmerrin

Banned
Um, because everybody did so at the time? Only the UK and USA had universal suffrage for white people before WWII

This is not true consider for example New Zealand which had Universal Sufferage long before this.
 
This is not true consider for example New Zealand which had Universal Sufferage long before this.

OK, I'll count New Zealand as an exception. Let me phrase it a different way: Great Powers in the 19th Century balked at universal suffrage as an actual ideal leading to meaningful power. In this fashion it only existed in the USA at the time. In terms of Europe, Germany *did* have it, but it created a ticking time bomb by making the Chancellor not have to worry about it, only the Kaiser.

As far as the time of the US Civil War, however, the USA is indisputably far more representative in institutions than the UK. An independent CSA would not have been by either standard, but speaking of the OTL war that was only a remote possibility anyhow.
 

frlmerrin

Banned
OK I have looked at all of your linkys and they do not help to answer my question one way or another. However, I did at least find out from the information you present that around 1.15M voted in the 1828 election in the USA and I looked up the population of the USA in 1830 and found it was 12.8 million, so roughly between one sixth and one quarter of the male population voted. So it would apear on the basis of this very meager evidence that in 1832 with the arrival of the reform act a greater proportion of Britons are eligible to vote than Americans.

Unfortunately, we are dealing with the 1860s and not the 20s/30s so basically all we have is your assertion and no evidence at all.

Where by contrast the UK adopted universal suffrage for men over the age of 21 in the year 1918.

This is frankly disenegenuous as we are not dealing with 1918 we are dealing with the 1860s.
 
OK I have looked at all of your linkys and they do not help to answer my question one way or another. However, I did at least find out from the information you present that around 1.15M voted in the 1828 election in the USA and I looked up the population of the USA in 1830 and found it was 12.8 million, so roughly between one sixth and one quarter of the male population voted. So it would apear on the basis of this very meager evidence that in 1832 with the arrival of the reform act a greater proportion of Britons are eligible to vote than Americans.

Unfortunately, we are dealing with the 1860s and not the 20s/30s so basically all we have is your assertion and no evidence at all.

This is frankly disenegenuous as we are not dealing with 1918 we are dealing with the 1860s.

Yes, we are dealing with the 1860s, by which point the USA had established universal manhood suffrage for all whites in the USA, and at which point the concept was still 50 years from existence in the UK. Jacksonian democracy created the largest total voting population in the world at the time. I'm sorry this offends British people who don't know their own country's history very well, but the reality is that the evolution of suffrage in the UK was much more gradual than it was here. You should be glad that there was only one Peterloo as opposed to our history of requiring first a civil war, then two successive defeats of domestic terrorism to get universal suffrage for all people regardless of color here.
 
From here:

http://www.gilderlehrman.org/historynow/09_2004/historian1b.php

The most significant political innovation of the early nineteenth century was the abolition of property qualifications for voting and officeholding. Hard times resulting from the panic of 1819 led many people to demand an end to property restrictions on voting and officeholding. In 1800, just three states (Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Vermont) had universal white manhood suffrage. By 1830, ten states permitted white manhood suffrage without qualification. Eight states restricted the vote to taxpayers, and six imposed a property qualification for suffrage. In 1860, just five states limited suffrage to taxpayers and only two still imposed property qualifications. And after 1840, a number of states, mainly in the Midwest, allowed immigrants who intended to become citizens to vote.

Pressure for expansion of voting rights came from propertyless men; from territories eager to attract settlers; and from political parties seeking to broaden their base.

Ironically, the period that saw the advent of universal white manhood suffrage also saw new restrictions imposed on voting by African-Americans. Every new state that joined the Union after 1819 explicitly denied blacks the right to vote. In 1855, only five states -- Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont -- allowed African-Americans to vote without significant restrictions. In 1826, only sixteen black New Yorkers were qualified to vote.

______________

In short the USA had by the 1860s what the UK would not have until the 1910s. While the UK had women's suffrage across its entirety a full year before the USA did, so a point to the UK. Regardless, in the 1860s any US POTUS would have represented more Americans in terms of people eligible to vote than Palmerston, Gladstone, or Disraeli did and the UK would have been puzzled at not allowing class to impact vote for men, and horrified at the mere concept of voting for women (where two US states allowed women to vote before men, which is how we had the Conscience of the Congress in office before the Nineteenth Amendment). I, however, easily see this as akin to other discussions where people demand evidence, are presented it, and then shift the goal posts and declare they're looking for True Glaswegians instead of conceding the point and moving on.
 
1918 eh? Let me know when the USA catches up....

The USA had universal suffrage for white men in an era when that still recalled the Terror in France, not something universally lauded. Lincoln and his contemporary successors represented more Americans than any of the British leader of the time did Britons. Do you or do you not concede this point as regards the democratic institutions of the USA in 1860, relative to that of the Britain of Palmerston?
 

frlmerrin

Banned
Well Snake your latest linky was well written and argued, I learned a lot from it. Unfortunately it neither supports your assertion nor refutes it. There are two problems with it and they have been the same problems with everyting you have posted. First, it only addresses the USA not a comparison of the USA and Great Britain. Second, where are the numbers, the numbers are what will either prove or disprove your assertion and they are simply not being presented in any of the linked articles you have presented.

Your assertion may well be right, I am begining to lean that way BUT as it stands no hard evidence has been presented one way or the other. I am intrigued...

Tigers, at least Snake has tried to present evidence supporting his position. Where did you get your information from?
 
Well Snake your latest linky was well written and argued, I learned a lot from it. Unfortunately it neither supports your assertion nor refutes it. There are two problems with it and they have been the same problems with everyting you have posted. First, it only addresses the USA not a comparison of the USA and Great Britain. Second, where are the numbers, the numbers are what will either prove or disprove your assertion and they are simply not being presented in any of the linked articles you have presented.

Your assertion may well be right, I am begining to lean that way BUT as it stands no hard evidence has been presented one way or the other. I am intrigued...

Tigers, at least Snake has tried to present evidence supporting his position. Where did you get your information from?

The British *did* allow recognition of the franchise for the urban working class......

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/1867_reform_act.htm

Two years into US Reconstruction when black voting here in the USA was soon to reach heights it would not reach again into the 1960s. The British did not shift to universal suffrage until the 1910s. By contrast all US white men could vote regardless of restriction, by 1860.

http://www.ushistory.org/us/23b.asp


There were only 1 million Britons legally able to vote in 1860, so both Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas got more votes for each of them than the entire electorate in the UK at the time.

http://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/election1860.htm
 
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