What would the impact on WW II with no Valkyrie?

[ejpsan]

There has been many Timelines about either a successful Valkyrie or questions about how to make Valkyrie work, but I haven't seen anything about a No Valkyrie scenario.

The plan was predicated on many moving parts working perfectly in order to succeed, but it came down to three main things.
1) Making sure that Hitler was actually killed.
2) The ability to take control of the government while neutralizing Himmler, Goering, among others.
3) Convincing the Western Allies to accept a negotiated peace that would allow the Germans to keep a large portion of land like the 1938 borders, and then support Germany against the Soviet Union.
So, what if instead the conspirators decided that it was impossible to pull off and called it off?
As I see it, no purge of the German Officer Corps, meaning an injury recovered Rommel returns to duty in Fall 1944.
A somewhat healthier Hittler making different decisions then he after the attempt on his life among other things.

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

There has been many Timelines about either a successful Valkyrie or questions about how to make Valkyrie work, but I haven't seen anything about a No Valkyrie scenario.

The plan was predicated on many moving parts working perfectly in order to succeed, but it came down to three main things.
1) Making sure that Hitler was actually killed.
2) The ability to take control of the government while neutralizing Himmler, Goering, among others.
3) Convincing the Western Allies to accept a negotiated peace that would allow the Germans to keep a large portion of land like the 1938 borders, and then support Germany against the Soviet Union.
So, what if instead the conspirators decided that it was impossible to pull off and called it off?
As I see it, no purge of the German Officer Corps, meaning an injury recovered Rommel returns to duty in Fall 1944.
A somewhat healthier Hittler making different decisions then he after the attempt on his life among other things.

Other than the would-be conspirators and other Wehrmacht generals getting to live, very little would actually change. Hitler's mental state was deteriorating regardless of the bomb plot. Rommel would've eventually been sacked for failure and insubordination, just like von Rundstedt and Guderian.

So overall, nothing of substance would change in regard to Germany's defeat. Maybe Rommel will play some role in West Germany after the war, but I doubt it.

 

[EWHM]

Point 3 is pretty delusional on the part of the plotters, unless the alternate history war is going way better for Germany.

 

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

Point 3 is pretty delusional on the part of the plotters, unless the alternate history war is going way better for Germany.

They weren’t working with perfect information or with the benefit of hindsight. Some of these same folks thought their vengeance weapons would destroy Allied morale. It’s easy to look back and say that was stupid to think now, but they didn’t have all the information we do now.

 

[Lalli]

War would last bit longer but nazis would eventually lost the war. Germany probably would be still divided with same way as in OTL.

Probably only intresting change is surviving Rommel who might serve similar role with Bundeswehr as von Manstein did in OTL.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

War would last bit longer but nazis would eventually lost the war. Germany probably would be still divided with same way as in OTL.

Probably only intresting change is surviving Rommel who might serve similar role with Bundeswehr as von Manstein did in OTL.

It probably wouldn't even be any longer (at most days or a week), but maybe a bit more costly for the allies if Germany isn't distracted by shooting itself in the foot that bit earlier.

 

[Gillan1220]

Probably only intresting change is surviving Rommel who might serve similar role with Bundeswehr as von Manstein did in OTL.

I always find Rommel surviving WWII becoming a commander of the Bundeswehr. The reformed West German military did see both Hans Speidel (who would later become the commander of NATO forces in Central Europe) and von Manstein.

Even more interesting is if Rommel would become a Secretary General of NATO thanks to his experience in tank warfare. As we know, Germany was predicted to have a large tank battle if a greater conflict erupted between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Rommel would be like former IJN captain Minoru Genda, who would become the JASDF's Third Chief of Staff from 1959 to 1962. Genda went from planning the Pearl Harbor attacks and fighting in Midway to becoming a proponent of the U.S.-Japan mutual defense alliance. Unfortunately for Genda, he would be embroiled in the Lockheed scandal (part of his job for procuring Lockheed F-104 fighter jets for the JASDF) and made an accidental remark about Japan using nuclear weapons against America when asked by a reporter during his visit to the U.S. Naval Academy in 1969. As a result of this, Genda resigned from politics but continued to advocate for pro-American stance for Japan's national security.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631773512242196483

Important to note that Genda was also awarded by the Legion of Merit by President John F. Kennedy.

Signs of the changing times.

 

[Lalli]

I always find Rommel surviving WWII becoming a commander of the Bundeswehr. The reformed West German military did see both Hans Spiedel (who would later become the commander of NATO forces in Central Europe) and von Manstein.

Even more interesting is if Rommel would become a Secretary General of NATO thanks to his experience in tank warfare. As we know, Germany was predicted to have a large tank battle if a greater conflict erupted between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Rommel would be like former IJN captain Minoru Genda, who would become the JASDF's Third Chief of Staff from 1959 to 1962. Genda went from planning the Pearl Harbor attacks and fighting in Midway to becoming a proponent of the U.S.-Japan mutual defense alliance. Unfortunately for Genda, he would be embroiled in the Lockheed scandal (part of his job for procuring Lockheed F-104 fighter jets for the JASDF) and made an accidental remark about Japan using nuclear weapons against America when asked by a reporter during his visit to the U.S. Naval Academy in 1969. As a result of this, Genda resigned from politics but continued to advocate for pro-American stance for Japan's national security.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631773512242196483

Important the Genda was also awarded by the Legion of Merit by President John F. Kennedy.

Signs of the changing times.

Rommel might has important role on formation of Bundeswehr but I don't think that Allies would trust him enough allowing him outright commandship. He was surely respected but hardly trusted.

 

[Garrison]

I suspect Rommel would be subject to far greater scrutiny as the living favourite of Hitler and former commander of his bodyguard, as opposed to a conveniently dead legend.

 

[New Cleo Genesis]

Rommel would have been 64 when the Bundeswehr historically was formed in 1955, which is almost certainly too old. A West German military could be established earlier due to butterflies, admittedly.

 

[raharris1973]

Who knows for certain if Rommel would be guaranteed to be in a western assignment or guaranteed to be in a western controlled zone for certain at the conclusion of the war.

Stavka would want to interrogate him and run simulations of fights with western opponents with him to hell and gone.

 

[sarge]

On the matter of Rommel, honestly in my own opinion he's been lionized quite a bit because of his death. Had he survived the war, while he'd still be known as the "good German" I don't think he would have quite the same following he has today. Although he'd survive Nuremberg for sure...

 

[Post]

Like the other German generals he would probably write a biography how the war could have been won if they only listened to him.

 

[LongVin]

On the matter of Rommel, honestly in my own opinion he's been lionized quite a bit because of his death. Had he survived the war, while he'd still be known as the "good German" I don't think he would have quite the same following he has today. Although he'd survive Nuremberg for sure...

Without Rommel's suicide we also don't know how he would have followed through with the rest of the war. His vaunted reputation may well have been over. If he couldn't pull off any dramatic successes his actions in Africa could very easily be attributed to "he got lucky."

 

[Gillan1220]

Rommel would have been 64 when the Bundeswehr historically was formed in 1955, which is almost certainly too old. A West German military could be established earlier due to butterflies, admittedly.

Rommel could still be an advisor though. Especially to former Heer generals who would later serve in the Bundeswehr. Maybe Rommel would also be an instructor in some West German military academy or run for politics just like Minoru Genda.

Just like Genda who visited the USNA, perhaps Rommel would visit West Point to hold a public speaking event and even receive an award from either Ike, JFK, or LBJ.

Who knows for certain if Rommel would be guaranteed to be in a western assignment or guaranteed to be in a western controlled zone for certain at the conclusion of the war.

Stavka would want to interrogate him and run simulations of fights with western opponents with him to hell and gone.

Or maybe Rommel would surrender to the Western Allies first. He'd be detained for some time and once he has been cleared of any war crimes, he could be in the Bundeswehr or in the Reichstag.

On the matter of Rommel, honestly in my own opinion he's been lionized quite a bit because of his death. Had he survived the war, while he'd still be known as the "good German" I don't think he would have quite the same following he has today. Although he'd survive Nuremberg for sure...

I think he'd still have the following. He's been respected by his enemies in the Allies for how great of a commander he was. The Allies knew he was much better than Hitler regarding commanding military units.

 

[steamboy]

think he'd still have the following. He's been respected by his enemies in the Allies for how great of a commander he was. The Allies knew he was much better than Hitler regarding commanding military units.

Most of Rommel's "Oh he's so great and amazing." comes from Liddel Heart's interviews with officers under him and Guderian etc and his books which were basically JUST on the decent side of not being erotica but full on love letters about how amazing the Heer was and it was only through numbers and that Nasty Mr Hitler etc that they lost and helped give birth to the Clean Heer myth. As well as the whole Oh german kit/training, individual soldiers etc was VASTLY superior to allied equipment that many of the Wehraboos here often fap aggressively over. And don't forget that Rommel was many things but he was not a 'clean noble officer just doing his duty'. But the West needed the West Germans with an armed force and lots of ex Heer and Luftwaffe officers who survived were interviewed and had gushing things written about them that they surely were not involved in any of that Nasty Mr Hitlers things and were just doing their duty. Honest...

To quote Yes Minister
"Why's Germany in it?"
"To clense themselves of Genocide and re-apply for admission into the Human race."

If you got to the top echelons of the Nazi party and heer etc there wasn't such a thing as being clean Heer and it irks me that this thread is already skipping along repeating many of those propagandistic lies that were willingly made up and told.

Rommel's use of 'guest workers' on the Atlantic Wall for example, yes you'll no doubt get people going "Oh he treated them nice." they were still people who were going to be worked to death. If you're slaving away digging ditches until you collapse due to exhaustion, it don't matter if your guards don't randomly shoot you or not, or on your birthday let you wear a special hat, you're still going to die.

 

[Gillan1220]

Most of Rommel's "Oh he's so great and amazing." comes from Liddel Heart's interviews with officers under him and Guderian etc and his books which were basically JUST on the decent side of not being erotica but full on love letters about how amazing the Heer was and it was only through numbers and that Nasty Mr Hitler etc that they lost and helped give birth to the Clean Heer myth. As well as the whole Oh german kit/training, individual soldiers etc was VASTLY superior to allied equipment that many of the Wehraboos here often fap aggressively over. And don't forget that Rommel was many things but he was not a 'clean noble officer just doing his duty'. But the West needed the West Germans with an armed force and lots of ex Heer and Luftwaffe officers who survived were interviewed and had gushing things written about them that they surely were not involved in any of that Nasty Mr Hitlers things and were just doing their duty. Honest...

To quote Yes Minister
"Why's Germany in it?"
"To clense themselves of Genocide and re-apply for admission into the Human race."

If you got to the top echelons of the Nazi party and heer etc there wasn't such a thing as being clean Heer and it irks me that this thread is already skipping along repeating many of those propagandistic lies that were willingly made up and told.

Rommel's use of 'guest workers' on the Atlantic Wall for example, yes you'll no doubt get people going "Oh he treated them nice." they were still people who were going to be worked to death. If you're slaving away digging ditches until you collapse due to exhaustion, it don't matter if your guards don't randomly shoot you or not, or on your birthday let you wear a special hat, you're still going to die.

Well I agree. We will never know the full extent to what the Allies covered up for the use of Nazi scientists and military officers in the immediate post-war world.

I mean if the U.S. was willing to grant amnesty to the members of Unit 731 especially that monster Shiro Ishii even though the U.S. was ahead of Japan's biological warfare program. Colonel Masanobu Tsuji, one of the perpetuators of Bataan and the Sook Ching massacre, was turned into a CIA asset but was also a liability because of his continued Pan-Asian views which Tsuji made sure to hamper U.S.-Japan relations as a member of the Diet in 1952. Similarly, the Nazi scientists and physicists were granted amnesty in Operation Paperclip, which would help the U.S. launch satellites, rockets, and a man on the moon.

The question is should Rommel have been held responsible for the deaths of the Atlantic Wall even though they were supposedly treated well as POWs? For example, General Yamashita was hanged for the atrocities caused by the Japanese in Bataan and the Manila massacre, even though in his defense, he claimed to order his troops to treat the Filipino and American POWs and Filipino civilians humanely but was apparently "unaware" of the atrocities that they committed.

 

[Cymraeg]

Most of Rommel's "Oh he's so great and amazing." comes from Liddel Heart's interviews with officers under him and Guderian etc and his books which were basically JUST on the decent side of not being erotica but full on love letters about how amazing the Heer was and it was only through numbers and that Nasty Mr Hitler etc that they lost and helped give birth to the Clean Heer myth. As well as the whole Oh german kit/training, individual soldiers etc was VASTLY superior to allied equipment that many of the Wehraboos here often fap aggressively over. And don't forget that Rommel was many things but he was not a 'clean noble officer just doing his duty'. But the West needed the West Germans with an armed force and lots of ex Heer and Luftwaffe officers who survived were interviewed and had gushing things written about them that they surely were not involved in any of that Nasty Mr Hitlers things and were just doing their duty. Honest...

To quote Yes Minister
"Why's Germany in it?"
"To clense themselves of Genocide and re-apply for admission into the Human race."

If you got to the top echelons of the Nazi party and heer etc there wasn't such a thing as being clean Heer and it irks me that this thread is already skipping along repeating many of those propagandistic lies that were willingly made up and told.

Rommel's use of 'guest workers' on the Atlantic Wall for example, yes you'll no doubt get people going "Oh he treated them nice." they were still people who were going to be worked to death. If you're slaving away digging ditches until you collapse due to exhaustion, it don't matter if your guards don't randomly shoot you or not, or on your birthday let you wear a special hat, you're still going to die.

Plus a lot of Rommel's legend is based around battles he won thanks to a) excellent SIGINT due to lax British radio security and b) Italian Military Intelligence breaking the US Black Code, which a certain Colonel Bonner Fellers was using to tell Washington what the British were about to do.
Once both those windows were closed in July 1942 all of a sudden the victories stopped dead.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The question is should Rommel have been held responsible for the deaths of the Atlantic Wall even though they were supposedly treated well as POWs? For example, General Yamashita was hanged for the atrocities caused by the Japanese in Bataan and the Manila massacre, even though in his defense, he claimed to order his troops to treat the Filipino and American POWs and Filipino civilians humanely but was apparently "unaware" of the atrocities that they committed.

Yamashita's responsibility for the Manila Massacre may have been in doubt, but he was up to his neck in the Sook Ching affair; any attempt to pin down Tsuji as the sole mastermind is neither fair nor accurate. Wanton culling of a given area's populace in order to cow it into submission was a staple of Yamashita's anti-guerilla tactics during his service in China and he carried this over to Malaya and Singapore. Rommel used forced labour, sure, but I don't know if he was guilty of anything similar to what Yamashita did.

 

[Gillan1220]

Yamashita's responsibility for the Manila Massacre may have been in doubt, but he was up to his neck in the Sook Ching affair; any attempt to pin down Tsuji as the sole mastermind is neither fair nor accurate. Wanton culling of a given area's populace in order to cow it into submission was a staple of Yamashita's anti-guerilla tactics during his service in China and he carried this over to Malaya and Singapore. Rommel used forced labour, sure, but I don't know if he was guilty of anything similar to what Yamashita did.

Tsuji was a cannibal too. He ate livers of POWs. After WWII, he disappeared into Indochina and was arrested by Chinese communists upon crossing into the border. From a prison in Yunnan, Tsuji apparently struck a deal with the Chinese communists on how to undermine U.S.-Japan relations. After being released in 1948, he returned to Japan. In 1952, he ran for the Diet. Later, he disappeared into Laos in 1961 when the Vietnam War was ongoing. CIA documents alleged that he joined the Pathet Lao or became an advisor to North Vietnam. He was never seen again as he was declared dead on July 20, 1968. Tsuji was a liability to the CIA due to his Pan-Asian stance and constant switching sides (U.S.-bloc or the communist movements in Asia) hence I would not be surprised if the CIA had him "liquidated".

----

Now going back to the OP's scenario, having no Operation Valkyrie wouldn't change the war at all. Germany was on the path to defeat. Perhaps those German military officers who died in Operation Valkyrie would die sometime in fighting the Allies and Soviets or end up as POWs after the Fall of Berlin.

The next butterfly here is that history books will not mention of German resistance against Hitler. So that would mean less "The Good German/Good Nazi" stereotypes.

EDIT: We would never know if Rommel would have been guilty of charges. If so, I could see a 20-year imprisonment unless he is released on good behavior, repentance, or the need for advisors in the Bundeswehr. Albert Speer was given a lighter sentence instead of the death penalty as an example.