I wonder if Brazil, if it didn’t suffer 1964 coup, would have looked like. With surviving Populist Republic, would Old Party structure of PSD-PTB coalition or UDN survive to modern day or would they decay over time? would it have improved its economy? How would it’s relations with USA look like?
What would surviving Brazilian populist republic look like?
- Thread starter Tales Weaver
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- brazil populist republic
You might get an "Italy" situation. Some parts HIGHLY DEVELOPED a-la Milano style and others will look like Southern Italy and at best look like Catania.
I don't see the PSD-PTB coalition surviving for much longer(I'd say until the mid-70s); PTB was quickly gaining terrain over UDN and PSD as Brazil became majorly urban (Brazilian population became 51% urban around 1965), and would soon become the dominant partner of the coalition, which means they would try to enact policies that would clash with PSD interests(land reform, I'm looking at you). When the divorce happens, UDN would be, barring some unexpected event, the natural partner for PSD.
A PSD-UDN coalition would have a less-defined senior partner, as while UDN would still be growing(as it was urban-based) and PSD shrinking, the ratio of shifting would be smaller, as UDN's base(urban middle-class) was naturally smaller and slower-growing than PTB's(urban workers). The PSD-UDN coalition would also be less dominating over PTB than the PSD-PTB one was over UDN. I'd expect UDN to slowly absorb sectors of the PSD and PSD become a small party(or even disappear eventually) as the 1990s arrive, meaning we would get almost a two-party system as PTB and UDN dominate politics, with each one having a small constellation of allied minor parties.
A PSD-UDN coalition would have a less-defined senior partner, as while UDN would still be growing(as it was urban-based) and PSD shrinking, the ratio of shifting would be smaller, as UDN's base(urban middle-class) was naturally smaller and slower-growing than PTB's(urban workers). The PSD-UDN coalition would also be less dominating over PTB than the PSD-PTB one was over UDN. I'd expect UDN to slowly absorb sectors of the PSD and PSD become a small party(or even disappear eventually) as the 1990s arrive, meaning we would get almost a two-party system as PTB and UDN dominate politics, with each one having a small constellation of allied minor parties.
It's hard to overstate just how much the dictatorship damaged Brazil. The minimum wage was slashed in half, the economy wrecked by countless loans, pharaonic projects and corruption, and João Goulart's reforms were halted right as they were about to be implemented.
Needless to say, the country would be much better off. In regards to finer details, I mostly agree with @Guilherme Loureiro's take, with one question: was UDN really growing back then? They came in third place in the 1962 legislative elections.
Needless to say, the country would be much better off. In regards to finer details, I mostly agree with @Guilherme Loureiro's take, with one question: was UDN really growing back then? They came in third place in the 1962 legislative elections.
Third place, but with a slight rise in percentage of seats won from their nadir in the 1954 and 58 elections. Still hadn't reached what they did in 1947, though, and of course it pales compared to what PTB did from 1947(8% of seats won) to 1962(25.4%).
Any single event that somehow changes the political consensus. Could be anything.
Speaking of a populist Brazil...
Since I am researching for a Brazil timeline...
Had not the coup of 1964 happened, would a party like ARENA even exist? (Also why the military government thought they needed one ?)
What about a the PRP of Plinio Salgado? Or the PRONA of Enéas Carneiro?
What about Lula PT?
Since I am researching for a Brazil timeline...
Had not the coup of 1964 happened, would a party like ARENA even exist? (Also why the military government thought they needed one ?)
What about a the PRP of Plinio Salgado? Or the PRONA of Enéas Carneiro?
What about Lula PT?
ARENA wouldnt exist most likely, neither would PRONA imo
As far as i can tell ARENA existed to eliminate dissent, identifiers and contradictions, after all their major supporter was called the democratic union.
And the dissolution of parties pre 64 worked on their favor to break unity on their opposition
PRONA would probably be either the right wing of PTB or something to do with UDN and PRP, with Enéas maybe getting some more notoriety as a serious political figure
PT depends on regional stuff, specially the ABC industrial workers and their unions. what we can kinda call their radicalization was caused by the military governments and its kinda unpredictable if it would still happen
if they still get sent into a syndicalism-esque ideology like IOTL we could see PT emerging as either a party on its own, or maybe a wing of either PTB or PSB
As far as i can tell ARENA existed to eliminate dissent, identifiers and contradictions, after all their major supporter was called the democratic union.
And the dissolution of parties pre 64 worked on their favor to break unity on their opposition
PRONA would probably be either the right wing of PTB or something to do with UDN and PRP, with Enéas maybe getting some more notoriety as a serious political figure
PT depends on regional stuff, specially the ABC industrial workers and their unions. what we can kinda call their radicalization was caused by the military governments and its kinda unpredictable if it would still happen
if they still get sent into a syndicalism-esque ideology like IOTL we could see PT emerging as either a party on its own, or maybe a wing of either PTB or PSB