What was the best chance for an Allied Western Front breakthrough before 1918?

[Pericles]

Excluding the perhaps obvious choice of at the Marne or in the Race to the Sea, so I'm thinking of a change sometime between 1915 and the end of 1917.

The odds of any kind of breakthrough or even a significant advance may be low due to the nature of WWI. However, when do you think the Western Allies had the best chance of making a significant advance through German lines? How could that battle/offensive have gone differently? Ideally was there a way to do this with just a PoD directly focused on the Western Front, but otherwise what change on another front or aspect of the war would have broken the stalemate in the West?

I'm not sure if an earlier Allied WWI victory has been explored much. People probably default to a Central Powers victory for TL ideas, but this whole period has so much AH potential and the war being won in a different way could clearly lead to a very different world afterwards.

 

[Bellacinos]

Excluding the perhaps obvious choice of at the Marne or in the Race to the Sea, so I'm thinking of a change sometime between 1915 and the end of 1917.

The odds of any kind of breakthrough or even a significant advance may be low due to the nature of WWI. However, when do you think the Western Allies had the best chance of making a significant advance through German lines? How could that battle/offensive have gone differently? Ideally was there a way to do this with just a PoD directly focused on the Western Front, but otherwise what change on another front or aspect of the war would have broken the stalemate in the West?

I'm not sure if an earlier Allied WWI victory has been explored much. People probably default to a Central Powers victory for TL ideas, but this whole period has so much AH potential and the war being won in a different way could clearly lead to a very different world afterwards.

Teddy wins Republican nomination defeats Wilson in 1912, US gets into WW1 after sinking of Luisitania. I’m basing the fact America gets into WW1 earlier in this tl solely off the fact that Teddy finds a way.

 

[Dorknought]

GB wont have a mass European style Army till 1916. Too many 'spirit of the bayonet' officers when you need artillery and engineers with the philosophy of using technology to protect the troops.

One path could be learning from the Russo-Japanese War where observers had noted that in the attacks around Port Arthur, the IJA had success in having the leading lines close behind the barrage.

In a briefing before the Somme, Brigadier James Jardine, commanding the 97th Brigade, 32nd Division, saidFrom: Rising Sun And Tumbling Bear: Russia's War with Japan. Connaughton, Richard.)

It came to my turn and Rawlinson asked me had I anything to say, and I replied: ‘The leading lines did not advance close enough to the barrage.’ ‘Oh,’ he said, ‘How close do you think they should be?’ and I replied, ‘Thirty to forty yards, Sir, and they must expect some casualties.’ I could see that he did not like what I said for he replied, ‘Oh, thirty to forty yards!!’ ‘Well Sir,’ I said, ‘That’s what the Japanese did,’ and his reply was, ‘Oh the Japanese,’ in a rather sneering way.

His recommendation summarily dismissed, Jardine decided nonetheless to employ the Japanese doctrine within 97th Brigade as best he could. One of his battalions, the 17th Highland Light Infantry, was able to leave its trenches in advance of the remainder of the division, following the artillery inexorably towards the German positions. Sebastian Dobson wrote: While many battalions along the front line climbed out of their trenches only to be mown down by German machine-gun fire, the 17th overran the enemy trenches in the Leipzig Salient before the opposing German infantry could emerge from their shelters, and made one of the few small gains of that terrible day.

Do this across the whole Somme offensive and you may rupture the German line.

Against the Germans considering the front to be the new frontier and the investment in concrete bunkers it's a siege engine with bite and hold tactics that is needed. The Germans falling back as per 1918 requires many years for the blockade to work and attrition to wear German out before real breakthroughs can be considered.

 

[phil03]

Honestly, I'd flip the scrip and say the best occasion is for the Germans to screw up. Have them somehow get a Nivelle-type, attack-attack-attack, commander on the Western front (I'll differ to others as to who it could be) when the Germans can afford it way less then the Wallies and the Wallies might be able to smash through in the counterattack.

 

[Pericles]

Would it be right to say the Central Powers were under the most pressure in 1916 of the three years in question, or does anyone have in mind a scenario with a breakthrough in 1915 or 1917?

 

[Garrison]

Your best shot in 1917 is probably Cambrai, and if that had achieved a breakthrough you can expect the reputation of the tank to be even higher in the 1920s and 30s.
The best thing that could happen in 1916 is for the French to be able to hold the line at Verdun and keep the Somme a primarily French affair, allowing the British to continue their build up and strike in Flanders in 1917 as they originally hoped.
Oh and for the French have Nivelle take a bullet or have a shell land on him before he can get the ear of the French and British governments and promote his idiotic plan.

 

[michael1]

Very unlikely unless Germany behaves very stupidly. The basic problem in WW2 was the lack of radio communication and the dependence on railways. These meant that any attacking force would inevitably run out of supplies and the ability to coordinate units, meaning the defenders had an increasing advantage once the initial defensive crust was breached. This is why bite and hold worked but breakthrough attempts didn't. The German 1918 attacks worked by encouraging lower level initiative (within a well defined structure) so that the lack of communications was less of an issue, and attacking areas in overwhelming strength and on a wide enough front that it took time to bring up enough units to stop the advance. Even then the advances tended to be into fresh air as the defenders initially brought up forces to hold strategically important points before having sufficient to stop the advance as a whole.

So barring German stupidity or significant material improvements, the British and French forces need to be much better trained and much larger (they are never able to make an assault on the scale of the German spring 1918 offensive). The relative small scale of the attacks meant that each could be halted by relatively small redeployments. These don't even need to come from the official reserves, once the allies revealed the location of the attack the Germans could move units from the quieter sectors.

The allies had the right strategy in 1916 but not the training, equipment or size of forces to achieve a breakthrough in a single attack. Their best tactical approach would have been a series of bite and hold operations in the hope of grinding down the Germans in preparation for a future breakthrough, possibly in 1918.


PS Of course, this all depends on how deep the penetration has to be to qualify

 

[naraic]

Would it be right to say the Central Powers were under the most pressure in 1916 of the three years in question, or does anyone have in mind a scenario with a breakthrough in 1915 or 1917?

Most likely. The combination of Jutland, Brusilov, Verdun, Somme and the Romania entry had the central powers incredibly stretched.

The reason I count Jutland is that after the German defeat at Jutland (I know its debatable but), the Germans diverted large numbers of second line troops to help fortify and garrison the German coastline in the wake of Jutland.

Put an extra 300K men into the Somme and the Germans could break.

Now how do you get an extra 300K men there? The easiest and most common answer is that Royal Navy forces the straits in 1915 and frees up the armies and supplies used in Gallipoli, Egypt and Mesopotamia for deployment on the western front. So really its a two stage POD.

Other than that you need a massive rewrite of training and tactics to improve Anglo French performance.