Alternate history timeline uploaded in case you find the concept interesting,
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Introduction
This episode will attempt to recreate the American revolution to create a world in which slavery on the scale of our history did not occur in the northern half of the Americas, a more economically egalitarian system developed in the United states, resources are more evenly distributed by continents and relative equality of the sexes was brought about faster.
This is a rudimentary attempt to build a world which by means of economics and culture logically follows on from the Point of Divergence I will describe. Obviously as we all know humans and happenstance get in the way and throw a spanner in the works of the train of history and normally expected trajectories.
This can be seen in the case of John Wilkes Booth and Gavrilo Princip who assassinated Abraham Lincoln influencing reconstruction in the United States and archduke Franz Ferdinand who triggered ww1 and respectively and in the Titanic and recent Coronavirus pandemic which have and are affecting the world in a variety of ways.
Point of Divergence
The point of divergence in this story is that in 1760 Thomas Paine soldier, hero, speechwriter and revolutionary was taken on by a widely read British newspaper.
To discuss the importance of this shift I will begin by describing Thomas Paine. Thomas Paine is best known for his writings in “common sense” and the American crisis. From my reading is one of the most impressive men in history. Throughout his lifetime he was a corset maker, privateer, trade official, teacher, tobacco shop owner, editor/journalist, secretary of the Congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs, negotiating assistant in borrowing money from France, French parliamentarian despite not speaking French. He also in his later life became interested in and contributed to the development of bridges, smokeless candles and early steam engines.
Thomas Paine in many ways could be considered a proto-Marxist or social democrat who argued in favour of workers’ rights to production, progressive taxation, a pension system, a Universal Basic Income in compensation for infringements on natural rights which were created by private land ownership, relief for the poor and a state funded universal education system. This is very similar to the Nordic model.
At this point in 1760 Paine had already served as a privateer for 4 years and had in this time a sympathy for sailors and the harsh conditions they endured. With the writing flair and elegance that was and I would say is widely respected in our timeline Thomas Paine would captivate audiences and argue for causes near and dear to his heart such as working class concerns around labour, relief for the poor and the treatment of sailors working on slave ships.
Slavery in North America is an incredibly large and complicated subject which arose in the way that it did due a web of causes with the primary one being that it was profitable.
The experience of working on slave ships was incredibly unpleasant and dangerous with a fatality rate of around 20 percent as a consequence of overwork, undernutrition and being whipped it was commonly undertaken because it was this or starvation. This worked out in captains’ favour as the less workers by the end of the voyage the less payment needed to be offered. Although this lifestyle was obviously far superior to being trafficked on them which could only be described as hell on transit to hell. It would not take much to make the trade of slaves unfeasible by means of a large enough strike as could be encouraged and triggered by Paine.
Lynching either with relatively painless methods like hanging or by tarring and feather and arson attacks against ships and buildings and the threat of the previous against families of scabs or managers of shipping companies could be easily performed with extreme sadism and brutality by sailors and people allied with them with nigh on impunity.
The margins of investment in slavery were in our timeline 20 percent higher than similar investments but as shown with these strikes were riskier and more dangerous with intermittent attacks on there may be reduced investment in this field and the bottom may fall out of the transportation market in the 1760s much earlier than the 1793 invention of the cotton gin which blew out the size of the black population in the united states by making the work of picking cotton much more profitable, instead a compromising staggered phase out of slavery into fixed term indentured servitude practice would eliminate large scale legal slavery in the us in the 1790s or 1800s. The black population would be a much smaller minority which would be more evenly spread out but gravitate towards cities where they would have more power in numbers and be further from former slave owners.
Secondary motives for desiring independence and a representative form of government in our timeline held by the wealthy such as wanting to hold on to slavery longer or indefinitely, relief from taxation on luxury goods such as tea and other industrial products and more access and control over western land which made up roughly the area of the Louisiana purchase in our timeline which the king had set aside for natives and French would be less attractive or indeed counterproductive to those economic incentives in this timeline as desires/demands for less concentration of land in private hands and progressive income taxation would be popular demands by the working poor and small farmers desire to accumulate land and wealth would be lessened and conditional on less taxation. Consequentially the rich who wanted these things I believe would tend to support the status quo or a less representative form of republicanism which favoured big landowners rather than all landowners.
I believe an American revolution for independence would still occur but would be a more class aligned event which was more driven by the rural and urban poor based off of desires for less taxation and more local control over where the taxed money went, a more representative system, more access to land from the French and Indians, moves to supress industrial production in American cities, opposition to the quartering of soldiers in people’s houses and perceptions of lack of political representation infringing on their rights as Englishmen.
There would be comparisons between this and the 16th century revolt by the British anarchist movement the diggers
I believe this movement would eventually succeed as in general guerrilla movements which are supported by the majority of the population do and Britain with its surrounding jealous and embittered European neighbours would either fight until it went broke and got stomped by France or do the smart thing and negotiate some kind of peace deal where they would receive compensation in exchange for independence.
During this revolution many female fighters would arise as commonly happens in guerrilla wars with popular ones being compared to a Joan of arc figures and being commemorated in statues and monuments which due to the resulting culture also be less individualistic in lauding heroes and more community oriented with every person statues representing tradespeople and farmers who could theoretically be anyone.
This new republic would still want a kind of bill of rights for every person but would like Italy’s constitution embrace as a founding principles ideas of solidarity and European style socialism. Consequences of this chain of events on world history would be hard to predictably unfold over the next few centuries but I believe 2 assumptions may be made;
First that I would predict that Africa in this timeline would be a more populous and richer place as the wars and depopulation caused in order to sell captives to Europeans would occur less with less financial motivation. This may lead to less bad blood and feuding between different tribes and ethnic groups in resistance struggles against European colonialism and the formation of a united idea of a country or less tension between different ethno-cultural groups.
A consequence of this would be genocide or attempts at genocide would occur less often and post European colonialism government positions and public infrastructure would be given by strongmen or elected leaders to members of other ethnic groups in a more equitable way than occurred in our timeline.
These more stable countries would compete for factory jobs with Asia and sell their resources at a price meant to benefit the nation as a whole not just the tribe in power and would enrich the county much more than in our timeline. This would mean that Asian countries would not industrialise at the same rate and Europeans would have to spend more money to buy luxury goods and natural resources making both continents poorer.
Second that there would be larger growth in cotton production in India after the invention of the cotton gin which would not be enslaved but sharecropped. This would lead to growth of early railways In India from farms to the coast and an earlier Suez Canal to link India to European markets particularly Britain. This route may lead to an earlier colonisation of Africa.
In terms of race relations In the United states there are two main paths I could see it going down:
The first is Communitarian racism
Racism is not inherent to many economic ideologies capitalism and communism both can be pro or anti-racist. In many communist countries racial groups can be associated with capitalism or seen as anti-communist who the dominant group feel they should discriminate against, expel or massacre. This can be seen with the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia who targeted racial groups like the Vietnamese, Chinese and Cham Muslims and the treatment of Jews in the Soviet Union. It is quite possible that despite the many communitarian values of Indian American groups they would be seen as a lesser race and be targets of discrimination, deportation and genocide. Black Americans may face discrimination with Asian Americans not being allowed entry for gold rushes or to build infrastructure such as the rail lines as jobs may be guaranteed for union members and citizens of the country with a white America policy such as was enacted in Australia.
the second
Communist anti-racism
On the other hand the solidarity espoused by Mr Paine may encourage feelings of solidarity and brotherhood between Europeans and members of other races with Indian peoples seen as good neighbours to be left alone militarily and an earlier end or preliminary abortion of the development of “scientific racism” in western society. Scientific racism can be traced somewhat back to eugenics and belief in the survival of the fittest as a justification for wealth inequality.
Additionally, earlier liberation would lead to the establishment of Historically black universities like Howard university 60 years earlier than in our timeline and the publishing of more scientific and literary content by black people could lead to quashing of belief in phrenology or eugenics. The social programs Thomas Paine envisaged could also lead to the growth of wealth in non-European hands.
In any case further colonization of America by Europeans of which there would be some with the degree dependent on how it shook out would occur in a roughly similar manner as in our timeline with farms and villages being set up by families who worked in common and shared the profits between themselves and neighbouring families. It’s unclear whether programs such as the transcontinental railway would occur earlier, later or not at all in this timeline, but a universal public education system in the United states in the 1800s and an earlier abolition of slavery would definitely lead to faster technological and economic progress.
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Introduction
This episode will attempt to recreate the American revolution to create a world in which slavery on the scale of our history did not occur in the northern half of the Americas, a more economically egalitarian system developed in the United states, resources are more evenly distributed by continents and relative equality of the sexes was brought about faster.
This is a rudimentary attempt to build a world which by means of economics and culture logically follows on from the Point of Divergence I will describe. Obviously as we all know humans and happenstance get in the way and throw a spanner in the works of the train of history and normally expected trajectories.
This can be seen in the case of John Wilkes Booth and Gavrilo Princip who assassinated Abraham Lincoln influencing reconstruction in the United States and archduke Franz Ferdinand who triggered ww1 and respectively and in the Titanic and recent Coronavirus pandemic which have and are affecting the world in a variety of ways.
Point of Divergence
The point of divergence in this story is that in 1760 Thomas Paine soldier, hero, speechwriter and revolutionary was taken on by a widely read British newspaper.
To discuss the importance of this shift I will begin by describing Thomas Paine. Thomas Paine is best known for his writings in “common sense” and the American crisis. From my reading is one of the most impressive men in history. Throughout his lifetime he was a corset maker, privateer, trade official, teacher, tobacco shop owner, editor/journalist, secretary of the Congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs, negotiating assistant in borrowing money from France, French parliamentarian despite not speaking French. He also in his later life became interested in and contributed to the development of bridges, smokeless candles and early steam engines.
Thomas Paine in many ways could be considered a proto-Marxist or social democrat who argued in favour of workers’ rights to production, progressive taxation, a pension system, a Universal Basic Income in compensation for infringements on natural rights which were created by private land ownership, relief for the poor and a state funded universal education system. This is very similar to the Nordic model.
At this point in 1760 Paine had already served as a privateer for 4 years and had in this time a sympathy for sailors and the harsh conditions they endured. With the writing flair and elegance that was and I would say is widely respected in our timeline Thomas Paine would captivate audiences and argue for causes near and dear to his heart such as working class concerns around labour, relief for the poor and the treatment of sailors working on slave ships.
Slavery in North America is an incredibly large and complicated subject which arose in the way that it did due a web of causes with the primary one being that it was profitable.
The experience of working on slave ships was incredibly unpleasant and dangerous with a fatality rate of around 20 percent as a consequence of overwork, undernutrition and being whipped it was commonly undertaken because it was this or starvation. This worked out in captains’ favour as the less workers by the end of the voyage the less payment needed to be offered. Although this lifestyle was obviously far superior to being trafficked on them which could only be described as hell on transit to hell. It would not take much to make the trade of slaves unfeasible by means of a large enough strike as could be encouraged and triggered by Paine.
Lynching either with relatively painless methods like hanging or by tarring and feather and arson attacks against ships and buildings and the threat of the previous against families of scabs or managers of shipping companies could be easily performed with extreme sadism and brutality by sailors and people allied with them with nigh on impunity.
The margins of investment in slavery were in our timeline 20 percent higher than similar investments but as shown with these strikes were riskier and more dangerous with intermittent attacks on there may be reduced investment in this field and the bottom may fall out of the transportation market in the 1760s much earlier than the 1793 invention of the cotton gin which blew out the size of the black population in the united states by making the work of picking cotton much more profitable, instead a compromising staggered phase out of slavery into fixed term indentured servitude practice would eliminate large scale legal slavery in the us in the 1790s or 1800s. The black population would be a much smaller minority which would be more evenly spread out but gravitate towards cities where they would have more power in numbers and be further from former slave owners.
Secondary motives for desiring independence and a representative form of government in our timeline held by the wealthy such as wanting to hold on to slavery longer or indefinitely, relief from taxation on luxury goods such as tea and other industrial products and more access and control over western land which made up roughly the area of the Louisiana purchase in our timeline which the king had set aside for natives and French would be less attractive or indeed counterproductive to those economic incentives in this timeline as desires/demands for less concentration of land in private hands and progressive income taxation would be popular demands by the working poor and small farmers desire to accumulate land and wealth would be lessened and conditional on less taxation. Consequentially the rich who wanted these things I believe would tend to support the status quo or a less representative form of republicanism which favoured big landowners rather than all landowners.
I believe an American revolution for independence would still occur but would be a more class aligned event which was more driven by the rural and urban poor based off of desires for less taxation and more local control over where the taxed money went, a more representative system, more access to land from the French and Indians, moves to supress industrial production in American cities, opposition to the quartering of soldiers in people’s houses and perceptions of lack of political representation infringing on their rights as Englishmen.
There would be comparisons between this and the 16th century revolt by the British anarchist movement the diggers
I believe this movement would eventually succeed as in general guerrilla movements which are supported by the majority of the population do and Britain with its surrounding jealous and embittered European neighbours would either fight until it went broke and got stomped by France or do the smart thing and negotiate some kind of peace deal where they would receive compensation in exchange for independence.
During this revolution many female fighters would arise as commonly happens in guerrilla wars with popular ones being compared to a Joan of arc figures and being commemorated in statues and monuments which due to the resulting culture also be less individualistic in lauding heroes and more community oriented with every person statues representing tradespeople and farmers who could theoretically be anyone.
This new republic would still want a kind of bill of rights for every person but would like Italy’s constitution embrace as a founding principles ideas of solidarity and European style socialism. Consequences of this chain of events on world history would be hard to predictably unfold over the next few centuries but I believe 2 assumptions may be made;
First that I would predict that Africa in this timeline would be a more populous and richer place as the wars and depopulation caused in order to sell captives to Europeans would occur less with less financial motivation. This may lead to less bad blood and feuding between different tribes and ethnic groups in resistance struggles against European colonialism and the formation of a united idea of a country or less tension between different ethno-cultural groups.
A consequence of this would be genocide or attempts at genocide would occur less often and post European colonialism government positions and public infrastructure would be given by strongmen or elected leaders to members of other ethnic groups in a more equitable way than occurred in our timeline.
These more stable countries would compete for factory jobs with Asia and sell their resources at a price meant to benefit the nation as a whole not just the tribe in power and would enrich the county much more than in our timeline. This would mean that Asian countries would not industrialise at the same rate and Europeans would have to spend more money to buy luxury goods and natural resources making both continents poorer.
Second that there would be larger growth in cotton production in India after the invention of the cotton gin which would not be enslaved but sharecropped. This would lead to growth of early railways In India from farms to the coast and an earlier Suez Canal to link India to European markets particularly Britain. This route may lead to an earlier colonisation of Africa.
In terms of race relations In the United states there are two main paths I could see it going down:
The first is Communitarian racism
Racism is not inherent to many economic ideologies capitalism and communism both can be pro or anti-racist. In many communist countries racial groups can be associated with capitalism or seen as anti-communist who the dominant group feel they should discriminate against, expel or massacre. This can be seen with the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia who targeted racial groups like the Vietnamese, Chinese and Cham Muslims and the treatment of Jews in the Soviet Union. It is quite possible that despite the many communitarian values of Indian American groups they would be seen as a lesser race and be targets of discrimination, deportation and genocide. Black Americans may face discrimination with Asian Americans not being allowed entry for gold rushes or to build infrastructure such as the rail lines as jobs may be guaranteed for union members and citizens of the country with a white America policy such as was enacted in Australia.
the second
Communist anti-racism
On the other hand the solidarity espoused by Mr Paine may encourage feelings of solidarity and brotherhood between Europeans and members of other races with Indian peoples seen as good neighbours to be left alone militarily and an earlier end or preliminary abortion of the development of “scientific racism” in western society. Scientific racism can be traced somewhat back to eugenics and belief in the survival of the fittest as a justification for wealth inequality.
Additionally, earlier liberation would lead to the establishment of Historically black universities like Howard university 60 years earlier than in our timeline and the publishing of more scientific and literary content by black people could lead to quashing of belief in phrenology or eugenics. The social programs Thomas Paine envisaged could also lead to the growth of wealth in non-European hands.
In any case further colonization of America by Europeans of which there would be some with the degree dependent on how it shook out would occur in a roughly similar manner as in our timeline with farms and villages being set up by families who worked in common and shared the profits between themselves and neighbouring families. It’s unclear whether programs such as the transcontinental railway would occur earlier, later or not at all in this timeline, but a universal public education system in the United states in the 1800s and an earlier abolition of slavery would definitely lead to faster technological and economic progress.
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