what if there were no irish civil war?

[sparky42]

As to a Republic?
Never going to happen in a 32 country State. We keep the King. We make massive concessions to the Unionists. Drop the more official Nationalist rhetoric. Concede economic power most likely to Belfast. (Dublin - Politcal Capital. Belfast - Economic Capital). Allow sustained British military presence in Ulster. Neutrality pretty much not an option. A 32 county Republic was never ever going to happen.

The economic issue would certainly be huge, I could see plenty of rhetoric from Belfast as to why their taxes should pay for clearing the slums, or the dam etc.

Honestly as much as separating the 6 counties did/does damage, keeping NI in would create a massively unstable entity, that as you said is one nut/temper tantrum away from disaster during the birth of the nation.

 

[theirishdreamer]

actaully

The economic issue would certainly be huge, I could see plenty of rhetoric from Belfast as to why their taxes should pay for clearing the slums, or the dam etc.

Honestly as much as separating the 6 counties did/does damage, keeping NI in would create a massively unstable entity, that as you said is one nut/temper tantrum away from disaster during the birth of the nation.

A big problem will be the general impoverishment of Connaught and Munster in a 32 county state, power and economics will focus on the Cork-Dublin-Belfast Axis far more than OTL. Because your right. Belfast like Dublin OTL WILL object to paying for they see as "lazy culchie feckers" and with any increased Unionist Veto alot of the rural projects we get OTL would never happen.

That's actually one massive drawdown in TL versus OTL. The West of Ireland, especially in the Depression, gets economically decimated as Belfast and Dublin suck up the young and money worse than ever. A dynamic but unstable early state probably held together through concessions and armed force.

 

[AdmiralBlake]

Sinn Fein were united by nothing more than "Brits Out". Politically they were all on very different spectrum's. Unlike the ANC who had Mandela, de Valera was not a Unifying Figure. He was actually quite decisive and divisive.
Markieivz-O'Duffy-De Valera-Collins-Brugha-O'Neill
You couldn't get them to agree on what kind of Ireland they all would agree one. Especially a 32 county one. Colins would have played peace maker for a time but after a few years.....disintegration based on idealogical lines.

And without the Civil War there won't be "anti-dev" faction. You'll have muliple factions based around an idealogy or strong persona. The Civil War gave a clear especially defined Rally Flag for both sides.
My view was-
A radical clerical faction - O'Duffy's boys - BLESSED CATHOLIC FASCIST REPUBLIC
A conservative catholic faction - like CnaG OTL - BLESSED CATHOLIC REPUBLIC!
A conservative moderate faction around Collins - LETS BE PRAGMATIC AND TALK TO THE UNIONISTS
A socialist faction - De Valera and Cumann na MBan and the irregulars - SOCIALIST IRELAND (AND POWER FOR ME sayeth Dev!)

The question is less why does Sinn Fein come apart and more what is there unifying factor after the British are gone?

im guessing Cosgrave will lead the conservative catholic faction?

would the unifying factor not be keeping northern Ireland part of the republic?

 

[theirishdreamer]

see

im guessing Cosgrave will lead the conservative catholic faction?

would the unifying factor not be keeping northern Ireland part of the republic?

The Unionists and British would NEVER concede to a Republic. Especially not in the 20's.
We weren't even going to get out without the OATH.
Getting 32 counties means accommodating the Unionist population by sacrificing the Republicanism.

There is no unifying factor the second the war ends.
Fighting the British IS the unifying factor for SF. With a 32 county State it becomes what kind of State would want to govern. And none of the SF leadership could agree on that. Some wanted a socialist republic. Some a catholic one free to bend knee to he church (OTL basically ), most were happy with a Free State,etc.

And thats your biggest problem. Support for a Republic was loud. But it was minority. Most people didn't care. Most would have accepted far less than what we got. OTL getting a Republic was damned hard. Getting it with a Unionist minority of nearly a 1/3 of the electorate with Veto rights?

 

[AdmiralBlake]

The Unionists and British would NEVER concede to a Republic. Especially not in the 20's.
We weren't even going to get out without the OATH.
Getting 32 counties means accommodating the Unionist population by sacrificing the Republicanism.

There is no unifying factor the second the war ends.
Fighting the British IS the unifying factor for SF. With a 32 county State it becomes what kind of State would want to govern. And none of the SF leadership could agree on that. Some wanted a socialist republic. Some a catholic one free to bend knee to he church (OTL basically ), most were happy with a Free State,etc.

And thats your biggest problem. Support for a Republic was loud. But it was minority. Most people didn't care. Most would have accepted far less than what we got. OTL getting a Republic was damned hard. Getting it with a Unionist minority of nearly a 1/3 of the electorate with Veto rights?

I know, I said this was pretty much ASB

im asking what if there were a 32 county republic

support for a republic was a minority your right, but it was the minority that had the most guns (outside of the british army).

 

[theirishdreamer]

oddly no

I know, I said this was pretty much ASB

im asking what if there were a 32 county republic

support for a republic was a minority your right, but it was the minority that had the most guns (outside of the british army).

Oddly No they didn't have the most guns as the civil war proved
Plus the Unionists were much, much better equipped than the Republicans.
Even then the break down of the Army itself wasn't entirely on lines of a Republic or the Oath, many stayed loyal to divisional commanders due to personal loyalty regardless of political beliefs.

32 County Republic = Horrible Nightmare Scenario of sectarian slaughter and repression.
The Unionists will NEVER, EVER, constance a Republic. And they'll fight to the death in that scenario.
Edit (especially in the 20s and 30s)

 

[Tom_B]

Oddly No they didn't have the most guns as the civil war proved
Plus the Unionists were much, much better equipped than the Republicans.
Even then the break down of the Army itself wasn't entirely on lines of a Republic or the Oath, many stayed loyal to divisional commanders due to personal loyalty regardless of political beliefs.

32 County Republic = Horrible Nightmare Scenario of sectarian slaughter and repression.
The Unionists will NEVER, EVER, constance a Republic. And they'll fight to the death in that scenario.
Edit (especially in the 20s and 30s)

I have been tempted to post to this very strange WI but didn't. However I want to applaud you for hitting the nail on the head.

 

[theirishdreamer]

I have been tempted to post to this very strange WI but didn't. However I want to applaud you for hitting the nail on the head.

Its sad but true.
A 32 County State? Feasible though would probably disgust most Republican or Nationalists politically for the compromises needed to achieve it. Even today to many fail to realise what a United Ireland would actually mean.
A 32 County Republic? Was never going to happen as it implies total victory over the Unionists and totally ignoring there cultural rights and traditions. Of course they'd resist. And they were armed well enough to do so.

 

[AdmiralBlake]

Oddly No they didn't have the most guns as the civil war proved
Plus the Unionists were much, much better equipped than the Republicans.
Even then the break down of the Army itself wasn't entirely on lines of a Republic or the Oath, many stayed loyal to divisional commanders due to personal loyalty regardless of political beliefs.

32 County Republic = Horrible Nightmare Scenario of sectarian slaughter and repression.
The Unionists will NEVER, EVER, constance a Republic. And they'll fight to the death in that scenario.
Edit (especially in the 20s and 30s)

I didn't say things were going to be rosy
I wouldn't even rule out Yugoslav style ethnic cleansing attempts by extremists on both sides