What if the War began in 1944? Royal Navy in particular and RAF overall

Well, this case it would mainly depend on the aircrafts. But if it was a random pitch battle like Denmark Strait, e.g a bunch of Lion encounter Yamatos and worse, A150 on its way like Prince of Wales meet Bismarck OTL, the RN would get their ass whopped by Yamato, Musashi and A150 (20 inch gun would tore a Lion apart).
It would depend upon how many countries the British Empire was fighting more than anything else. If it was like OTL with the Royal Navies fighting Germany, Italy and Japan without any significant allies the Japanese would still win because the increase in the size of all 4 navies meant that the RN was still spread too thinly.

Though ITTL the projected expansion of the Dutch Navy would have been well advanced by early 1944. They might have even completed some of their projected battle cruisers.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
It would depend upon how many countries the British Empire was fighting more than anything else. If it was like OTL with the Royal Navies fighting Germany, Italy and Japan without any significant allies the Japanese would still win because the increase in the size of all 4 navies meant that the RN was still spread too thinly.

Though ITTL the projected expansion of the Dutch Navy would have been well advanced by early 1944. They might have even completed some of their projected battle cruisers.
Still fighting all of them, but the Japanese still declare war against the US first.
 
For this to work you have to avoid the German occupation of the rump of Czechoslovakia in the spring of 1939 as well as the invasion of Poland. The British had effectively been mobilising since then. That included the doubling of the Territorial Army and the abolition of financial controls that up till then had stopped the "Top Brass" from expanding the armed forces at the rate they thought was necessary.

But not doing that deprives Germany of IIRC 10 million badly needed tax payers, the Czech gold reserves, the equipment of the Czech Army (equivalent of 35 divisions IIRC), the Czech armaments industry, including the LT-28 tank and the civilian industries of Europe's most developed small nation, with the possible exceptions of the Benelux countries.
 
The French are going to have completed the extension of the Maginot Line to the cost. Their air force is going to be in much better shape in part because its aircraft industry would have become used to being nationalised. The French Navy would have 2 new aircraft carriers and 3 Richelieu class battleship in commission, plus the 3 De Grasse class cruisers, 4 Mogador class big destroyers, plus a few dozen smaller Le Hardi and Le Fier class destroyers and IIRC 40 submarines were under construction or on order in 1939, which would have increased the French submarine force by 50%.

OTOH the Italians would have had 4 Littorio class by 1944 possibly with more under construction to replace the 4 modernised dreadnoughts, the pair of improved Garibaldis cancelled when Italy entered the war, the 12 Capitani Romani class and probably more Soldati class standard destroyers and more Spica class escort destroyers. The Italians were also catching up with the French industrially in the 1930s and this is likely to have continued in the first half of the 1940s if WWII was delayed to 1944.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
For this to work you have to avoid the German occupation of the rump of Czechoslovakia in the spring of 1939 as well as the invasion of Poland. The British had effectively been mobilising since then. That included the doubling of the Territorial Army and the abolition of financial controls that up till then had stopped the "Top Brass" from expanding the armed forces at the rate they thought was necessary.

But not doing that deprives Germany of IIRC 10 million badly needed tax payers, the Czech gold reserves, the equipment of the Czech Army (equivalent of 35 divisions IIRC), the Czech armaments industry, including the LT-28 tank and the civilian industries of Europe's most developed small nation, with the possible exceptions of the Benelux countries.
The problem is that preventing Germany from seizing Czech in 1938 means declare war to Germany to protect Czech
 

Thomas1195

Banned
But even if German annex Czech, Poland or so without world war, they could not avoid bankruptcy if they still sticked to plan z while maintain (and enlarging) its already huge army and airforce as well as carrying mad projects like landkreuser or so. Nazi Germany is no 1914 German Empire (even 1914 Germany could not sustain this kind of military expansion), well, unless it could seize british gold reserves.
 
One problem is that German-Soviet war might broke out before if war did not broke out in western front before 1941-42.

But wasn't the whole rationale behind Hitler's strategy to secure his western front before launching in the east, so avoiding the two-front problem Germany had in WWI? I don't really see a viable POD that enables Britain and France to stay neutral while Hitler attacks the Soviet Union, which must inevitably involve an occupation of Poland.

Also, much the same holds in the Far East. Does Japan still attack Pearl in 1941? If so, the democracies will still be in a major war; if not, why not?

Hitler's regime was running on momentum and he himself was an inveterate political gambler. He knew that he'd stolen a march on the democracies (and Soviets) and so an early war was to his advantage. Even if you remove Hitler from the stage, the same pressures apply.
 
The problem is that preventing Germany from seizing Czech in 1938 means declare war to Germany to protect Czech
The annexation of the Sudetanland was in 1938. The annexation of the rump of Bohemia-Moravia and the creation of the Slovak puppet state wasn't until the spring of 1939.

In my opinion it was the latter that was what made World War II inevitable, because that was when Britain and France gave their guarantees to Poland. It was also when the British Government abolished financial controls on the armed forces and effectively put the United Kingdom on a war footing. The Deficiency Programme of 1934 and the Rearmament Programme of 1936 were intended to be a deterrent to the Germans and Japanese. Indeed the 1934 D.R.C. Report literally says that the improvements to the defences in the Far East were to "Show a tooth," to the Japanese while a political settlement was reached with the Germans. It was the German occupation of Bohemia-Moravia that proved a political settlement wasn't possible, not Munich.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
But wasn't the whole rationale behind Hitler's strategy to secure his western front before launching in the east, so avoiding the two-front problem Germany had in WWI? I don't really see a viable POD that enables Britain and France to stay neutral while Hitler attacks the Soviet Union, which must inevitably involve an occupation of Poland.

Also, much the same holds in the Far East. Does Japan still attack Pearl in 1941? If so, the democracies will still be in a major war; if not, why not?

Hitler's regime was running on momentum and he himself was an inveterate political gambler. He knew that he'd stolen a march on the democracies (and Soviets) and so an early war was to his advantage. Even if you remove Hitler from the stage, the same pressures apply.
Well, he might still have to find a cause like Danzig to invade all of the countries (while he might also launch a Barbarossa style attack, I think the chance for this to happen is still lower)
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The annexation of the Sudetanland was in 1938. The annexation of the rump of Bohemia-Moravia and the creation of the Slovak puppet state wasn't until the spring of 1939.

In my opinion it was the latter that was what made World War II inevitable, because that was when Britain and France gave their guarantees to Poland. It was also when the British Government abolished financial controls on the armed forces and effectively put the United Kingdom on a war footing. The Deficiency Programme of 1934 and the Rearmament Programme of 1936 were intended to be a deterrent to the Germans and Japanese. Indeed the 1934 D.R.C. Report literally says that the improvements to the defences in the Far East were to "Show a tooth," to the Japanese while a political settlement was reached with the Germans. It was the German occupation of Bohemia-Moravia that proved a political settlement wasn't possible, not Munich.
The problem is that the you cannot prevent annexation of bohemia moravia after munich because it did not happen on diplomatic table. The problem was Daladier and Chamberlain in Munich, who gave Hitler a free hand. At that time, Czech was ready to fight but betrayed by them. Another good choice is declare war in 1938, which in best case can drag USSR into Allies. Germany would have been stonewalled against a modern Czech army with a strong fortification for a while. Oh wait, do not forget the little entente
 
Oh wait, do not forget the little entente
I hadn't I was going to do a post saying their armed forces would be better equipped by 1944 and they might be more industrialised too. All the smaller European nations are going to be better armed in 1944 than 1939 for that matter, the most important being Poland.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
I hadn't I was going to do a post saying their armed forces would be better equipped by 1944 and they might be more industrialised too. All the smaller European nations are going to be better armed in 1944 than 1939 for that matter, the most important being Poland.
Here I mean fighting Germany in 1938 for Czech would create more problems for Hitler than in 1939
 
It just occurred to me that without the OTL World War II the B.1/39 Ideal Bomber would be coming into service at the start of 1944 to replace the Halifax, Manchester and Stirling in Bomber Command. These aircraft probably are passed on to the GR squadrons at home and overseas to replace the Wellingtons which the Halifax, Manchester and Stirling replaced in Bomber Command.
 
The Tornado/Typhoon replacement would probably be well advanced too. Any ideas if no OTL World War II would have helped or retarded the development of gas turbines in the UK?
 
Re the equipment of the FAA at the end of 1943 ITTL my best guess is that the Firefly would have replaced the Fulmar in the Fleet Fighter squadrons from 1943 and the Barracuda with the Rolls Royce Exe engine would be replacing the Albacore in the TBD squadrons. The Sea Otter had probably already replaced the Walrus in the catapult flights and the Supermarine Seagull would be more advanced.
 
IOTL the outbreak of World War II halted the development of helicopters in the UK for 4 years. Without that I think there is a very good chance that Hafner's PD.9 would have reached the prototype stage by the end of 1943. What I want to say is that his design evolved in to the Sycamore, which flew at least 4 years earlier than the OTL aircraft.

Similar improvement over OTL are possible at Cierva and Weir. I want to say that after the failure of the Lerwick the Saro Board decides to get out of the flying boat business and try helicopters instead by buying the Weir Family's helicopter interests in 1940. Though that's wishful thinking not a serious suggestion of what might happen.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
But wasn't RN naval doctrine focused more on BB than CV, CVs in RN were only intended for support role, not capital ships like USN.

Btw, the Two Ocean Act might not be passed without ww2.
And the US economy might have been still struggling with the GReat Depression (there were still hordes of unemployed in the US before the war.
 
I think there was some sketches of a lengthened super-Lion though, with 12 guns, which would be a relatively simple development of the Lion. But it'd still be building in 1944. The Lions are fine anyway, they're competitive against the H-39s, although much depends on engagement range because of the design differences.

The situation in the east is more likely to be dominated by aircraft than the fog and storms of the north Atlantic. Realistically, I don't think the RN is going to go charging into the Sea of Japan - more likely it's the Japanese on the offensive, with the IJN supporting landings in Indochina, Malaya, the DEI and the Philippines. This would be a very crowded littoral environment comparable to the Med OTL - lots of submarines, shallow water and land-based aircraft, rather than the bleak wastes of the Norwegian Sea or Denmark Strait.

So it's less likely that you'd have a classic daytime battle line engagement - we didn't really get one of these in the Pacific OTL anyway. Maybe some close-range night actions though, at which both sides would probably be rather competent. So I wouldn't be too worried about the super-Yamatos there. Anyway, engagement ranges in the OTL night actions were so close that armour and gun calibre lose a lot of their meaning - if both sides can penetrate each other, the only thing that matters is rate of fire and accuracy, and an old R-class with superior radar could be a match for a Yamato.
 
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