What if the War began in 1944? Royal Navy in particular and RAF overall

Thomas1195

Banned
How would the RN and RAF look like if the ww2 was delayed to 1944?
Of course the Revenge BBs would have been replaced, the Hood would have been modernized and the Lion BBs would have been commissioned. Next, aircraft carriers like Malta would have been completed. But do you think that RN would go on with super-heavy battleships after Lion, which may not be like Yamato, but a modernized I3 class with slightly weaker firepower but better fire control and radar than Yamato (a bigger version of G3 in 1920 with similar speed of over 30 knots, superior armour that can withstand 18 inch gun shells and superior firepower). This kind of battleship would have tore Bismarck apart. Or would they choose to build super carriers? Or both if Britain could rebuild its naval engineering capacity on time (in 1940-1942)

The airforce would have been modernized too, with new aircrafts like Spitfire, Mosquito, Lancaster or Beaufighter, and FAA would have surely got better aircrafts. And it would be likely that Britain (and Germany of course) might have further lead other nations (maybe except for the US) in jet and other electronics like radar.

But overall they would have been much much stronger militarily, technologically with stronger industrial capacity at least in absolute term in 1944.

Btw, Germany would still continue plan Z if they could manage to avoid bankruptcy.
 
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Mrstrategy

Banned
Each side is stronger and it's harder to defeat the Germans and Italians since they have lots of trained troops and updated weapons
 

Thomas1195

Banned
France Depends on politics and army in 1940 they were already thinking of defeat
Well, but France was still in the progress of modernizing its army and air forces at that time. And their army is still capable of defeating Italy in a 1 vs 1 war. Italian commanders were not good either.
 
When is the POD? Both Japan and Germany wasn't really running their rearmament in a fashion that could be sustainable as far as i understand it. So either they ramp down och the western allies avoid confronting them for long enough. Neither seems plausible but they affect the RN build program immensly. Also ships like the Malta's would probably be different without the experience of the war?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
When is the POD? Both Japan and Germany wasn't really running their rearmament in a fashion that could be sustainable as far as i understand it. So either they ramp down och the western allies avoid confronting them for long enough. Neither seems plausible but they affect the RN build program immensly. Also ships like the Malta's would probably be different without the experience of the war?
Actually the war in 1939 affected the RN in a negative way because ships like Lion were postponed for building merchant and escort vessels. And also British nuclear project would have received better funding than OTL.
 
At the outbreak of the OTL WWII the RAF expansion scheme in force was Scheme M with a scheduled completion date of 31st March 1942. These schemes had a habit of going over time and cost, but it should have been finished by the end of 1943. Had it been completed on time and with the aircraft planned the Metropolitan Air Force would have had:
  1. 85 heavy bomber squadrons with 16 aircraft each for a total of 1,360 Halifaxes, Manchesters and Stirlings
  2. 50 fighter squadrons with 16 aircraft each for a total of 800 Tornadoes and Typhoons
  3. 9 army co-operation squadrons with 12 aircraft each for a total of 108 aircraft. These would have been Lysanders or whatever their replacement would have been
  4. 19 naval co-operation squadrons with 281 aircraft, including 6 flying boat squadrons with 36 aircraft and 13 landplane squadrons with 245 aircraft, which in turn was made up of 9 TBGR squadrons with 189 aircraft and 4 trade defence squadrons with 56 aircraft. If it was up to me Wellingtons made redundant in Bomber Command by the B.12/36 and P.13/36 aircraft would have replaced the Botha in the TBGR and TD squadrons. Due to the failure of the Saro Lerwick all the flying boat squadrons would still be equipped with the Sunderland.
Total Metropolitan Air Force 163 squadrons with 2,549 first-line aircraft. The overseas commands were to have a total of 49 squadrons with 636 aircraft. That made a grand total of 212 squadrons and 3,185 aircraft.

The expansion scheme in force for the Fleet Air Arm was still Scheme F of 1936, which called for 504 aircraft by 31st March 1942 in the equivalent of 42 squadrons of 12 aircraft each. However, this total included amphibians in catapult flights aboard battleships and cruisers.

Edit - 1

I forgot to mention the Dominions and India were expanding their air forces too. E.g. the RAAF with 12 squadrons in September 1939 was working towards a strength of 31 squadrons (IIRC) by the middle of 1941.

Edit - 2

In the 3rd D.R.C. Report of 1936 the War Establishment of army co-operation aircraft was set at 20 squadrons. That is 8 for the First Echelon of the Expeditionary Force made up of one communications squadron to be formed on mobilisation, 2 strategic reconnaissance squadrons and one army co-operation squadron for its 5 divisions (one cavalry and 4 infantry). The second, third and fourth echelons each of 4 TA infantry divisions would also require 4 army co-operation squadrons on the scale of one per infantry division making a total of 12 squadrons.

The existing force was 5 regular squadrons of 18 aircraft provided under Scheme C of 1935, which in war would be re-organised into 7 squadrons of 12 in wartime. Expansion Schemes F and L increased this to 11 squadrons of 12 consisting of 7 squadrons for the first echelon and 4 Auxiliary AF squadrons for the second echelon. The communications squadron and the squadrons for the third and fourth echelons would be formed on mobilisation.

Between Schemes L and M it was decided to convert 2 TA infantry divisions to AA divisions, which might explain why the latter reduced the army co-operation force to 9 squadrons including 2 auxiliary squadrons.

In 1939 it was decided to double the number of TA infantry division to 24 and introduce conscription to provide the personnel. That increased the war establishment of the army co-operation force from 20 to 32 squadrons. Furthermore the state of readiness of the divisions might be higher because the divisions were formed of conscripts with recent training and therefore could be sent into the field sooner.

That might mean that the RAF might not have enough time to form the extra squadrons required after mobilisation. Therefore more squadrons might have to be maintained in peacetime. Going back to the 1936 Report the ideal was 15 squadrons in peace consisting of 7 regular and 8 auxiliary squadrons. But it was thought that AuxAF recruiting would only provide enough personnel for 4 squadrons. However, this problem might be cured by the introduction of conscription in 1939.
 
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Btw, Germany would still continue plan Z if they could manage to avoid bankruptcy.
It's not just the Germans that had to avoid bankruptcy. The British were forced to scale back their naval expansion in 1938 and 39 to the tune of 7 submarines, 2 aircraft carriers, 5 cruisers and 16 destroyers due to the demand pull inflation and balance of payments deficit that rearmament had created. OTOH supply, i.e. the British armaments industry, should have caught up with the increased demand from the armed forces by 1944.
 
For the Royal Navy 1944 happens to be the planned completion date of the expansion programme that was in force when World War II broke out. Said programme was to provide the UK with a fleet capable of fighting Germany and Japan at the same time.

There would have been 82 submarines. Under the 1930 London Treaty they were given a service life of 13 years and with a planned rate of 7 per year begun in the middle of the 1930s there is enough time to bring the fleet up from 57 to 82 by the end of 1943 and replace the 12 H and L class boats.

The number of battleships depended upon the number of capital ships the Germans and Japanese had. There would have been 12 new ships consisting of the 5 KGVs, 6 Lions and Vanguard plus the 5 Queen Elisabeths, Repulse and Renown, Hood (modernised) for a total of 20. My guess is that battleships would be laid down at the rate of 2 per year after the third pair of Lions in 1941 so that another 4 ships would be under construction at the end of 1944.

100 cruisers - 55 for fleet work and 45 for trade protection. The RN had about 60 in September 1939 and 23 under construction for completion at the rate of 7 per year 1940-42 and 2 in 1943 so the total was probably about 90 unless the building times could be speeded up.

22 destroyer flotillas - 16 for fleet work and 6 for trade protection. The RN had actually reached this strength by September 1939 so the extra construction would be to replace the surviving S, V and W class boats. The 1930 London Treaty set the service life of a destroyer at 16 years so the replacement rate once the old boats were replaced would probably have been one-and-a-half flotillas per year.
 
German economy melts down long before 1944. Easier win for Anglo-French the longer the delay post-1939 that they have to continue rearmament
 
German economy melts down long before 1944. Easier win for Anglo-French the longer the delay post-1939 that they have to continue rearmament
But the British and French economies may melt down before 1944 also.

Also the Japanese economy was growing rapidly. They doubled their steel making capacity between 1937 and 1942. By 1944 they would be in a better position vis a vis the USA - still an inferior one - but better. Italy would have recovered from helping Spain in the Spanish civil war. And Franco might be more willing to become an active member of the Axis in 1944 than 1940 because there had been a decent amount of time for his country to rebuild from the SCW.

Edit

The biggest downside for the Axis for waiting until 1944 is that the extra growth in the Soviet economy that would have occurred. Plus Hitler would have been 55 instead of 50. I did read somewhere that he sensed that it was 1939 or never from himself as well as Germany.
 
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The Royal Navy first calculated the number of aircraft it needed for the Fleet, then decided what the ideal aircraft carrier to operate them was and then divided the total number of aircraft by the capacity of the idea carrier. Before the tonnage quotas expired the total number of aircraft was (IIRC) 360 which would be carried by 5 Ark Royal class carriers.

IIRC by 1936 multi-purpose aircraft like the Torpedo Dive Bomber (TBD) reduced the total to 300, which would be accommodated 8 aircraft carriers. That is 7 Illustrious class (total 252 aircraft) and Ark Royal (rated as a 48 aircraft ship due to the increase in aircraft size).

There was also a requirement for 6 trade protection carriers to operate with the trade protection cruisers. However, they were not the escort carrier as we came to know them. Their mission was search and destroy enemy surface raiders like the German pocket battleships. This resulted in a requirement for a ship that was fast enough to work with the cruisers and carrying enough torpedo bombers to sink a pocket battleship. The designs came out at about 15,000 tons and carried 18 aircraft at an estimated building cost of £3 million. However, the Illustrious class although 8,000 tons larger and carrying double the air group cost £4 million to build, only £1 million more. Therefore it was decided to build more Illustrious class ships instead of the smaller designs.

Thus the plan in 1936 was for a force of 14 aircraft carriers by 1944 plus Argus converted to a depot ship for Queen Bee target drones and a maintenance ship, which would become Unicorn. The 14 ships would consist of Ark Royal, 10 Illustrious class and the 3 Follies.

The plan was to order the 10 Illustrious class at a rate of 2 per year. The Washington and London Treaties meant that no ships could be laid down in 1936 so 4 were laid down in 1937. These ships were ordered under the 1936-37 and 1937-38. The other 6 ships should have been ordered at the rate of 2 per year in the 1938-39, 1939-40 and 1940-41 estimates. However, only one each was ordered in 1938 and 1939. Both ships were laid down in 1939 and became the Implacable and Indefatigable. If it hadn't been for the war they would have been competed in 1942. If 2 ships had been ordered in 1940-41 they would have been completed in 1943.

That would have given the Royal Navy 14 aircraft carriers at the start of 1944, made up of 8 Illustrious class, Ark Royal, the 3 Follies, Eagle and Hermes plus Argus and Unicorn. Under construction would be 2 ships laid down in 1941 to replace Eagle and Hermes in 1944. Subject to sufficient funding 2 carriers would have been laid down in 1942 for completion in 1945 and another in 1943 for completion in 1946 to replace the 3 Follies. However, that assumes that the UK is rich enough to lay down aircraft carriers at the rate of 2 per year 1940-43. They might have only laid down 4 carriers 1940-43, i.e. one a year so that there would only be 13 ships in service at the end of 1943 with 2 building.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The Royal Navy first calculated the number of aircraft it needed for the Fleet, then decided what the ideal aircraft carrier to operate them was and then divided the total number of aircraft by the capacity of the idea carrier. Before the tonnage quotas expired the total number of aircraft was (IIRC) 360 which would be carried by 5 Ark Royal class carriers.

IIRC by 1936 multi-purpose aircraft like the Torpedo Dive Bomber (TBD) reduced the total to 300, which would be accommodated 8 aircraft carriers. That is 7 Illustrious class (total 252 aircraft) and Ark Royal (rated as a 48 aircraft ship due to the increase in aircraft size).

There was also a requirement for 6 trade protection carriers to operate with the trade protection cruisers. However, they were not the escort carrier as we came to know them. Their mission was search and destroy enemy surface raiders like the German pocket battleships. This resulted in a requirement for a ship that was fast enough to work with the cruisers and carrying enough torpedo bombers to sink a pocket battleship. The designs came out at about 15,000 tons and carried 18 aircraft at an estimated building cost of £3 million. However, the Illustrious class although 8,000 tons larger and carrying double the air group cost £4 million to build, only £1 million more. Therefore it was decided to build more Illustrious class ships instead of the smaller designs.

Thus the plan in 1936 was for a force of 14 aircraft carriers by 1944 plus Argus converted to a depot ship for Queen Bee target drones and a maintenance ship, which would become Unicorn. The 14 ships would consist of Ark Royal, 10 Illustrious class and the 3 Follies.

The plan was to order the 10 Illustrious class at a rate of 2 per year. The Washington and London Treaties meant that no ships could be laid down in 1936 so 4 were laid down in 1937. These ships were ordered under the 1936-37 and 1937-38. The other 6 ships should have been ordered at the rate of 2 per year in the 1938-39, 1939-40 and 1940-41 estimates. However, only one each was ordered in 1938 and 1939. Both ships were laid down in 1939 and became the Implacable and Indefatigable. If it hadn't been for the war they would have been competed in 1942. If 2 ships had been ordered in 1940-41 they would have been completed in 1943.

That would have given the Royal Navy 14 aircraft carriers at the start of 1944, made up of 8 Illustrious class, Ark Royal, the 3 Follies, Eagle and Hermes plus Argus and Unicorn. Under construction would be 2 ships laid down in 1941 to replace Eagle and Hermes in 1944. Subject to sufficient funding 2 carriers would have been laid down in 1942 for completion in 1945 and another in 1943 for completion in 1946 to replace the 3 Follies. However, that assumes that the UK is rich enough to lay down aircraft carriers at the rate of 2 per year 1940-43. They might have only laid down 4 carriers 1940-43, i.e. one a year so that there would only be 13 ships in service at the end of 1943 with 2 building.
What about BBs? Do you think they would build more powerful ones after Lion (in this timeline, Lion BBs would have been completed), e.g. a super battleships like modernized G3 or I3 classes (bigger G3 with speed exceeding 30 knots as I mentioned above) at least to counter German H-class (well, you would need a BB with 18 inch gun to sink it if your CVs and naval aircrafts couldn't arrive on time)? Ship for ship, if we eliminate factors like modern radar and FCS, even the original G3 was stronger than Lion in every aspect except for AA, especially speed (32 knots vs 28.75 knots).
Btw, I think it would have been possible to build them because British economy and shipbuilding actually was growing quite well during mid to late 1930s after abandoning Gold Standard. In addition, trade wouldn't have been disrupted, and the UK wouldn't have to build merchant ships to replace losses or to enact conscription.
 
As I'm at it I might as well do the British Army too.

The Regular Army would have consisted of an expeditionary force of 2 armoured divisions and 5-6 infantry divisions plus corps, army and LOC troops. It would have been backed up by one armoured and 24 infantry divisions in the Territorial Army ready to take the field in the echelons of 8 divisions in the 4th, 6th and 8th months (IIRC) of the order to mobilise because the expansion and modernisation of the TA would have been completed by 1944.

Anti-Aircraft Command would have reached the strength set by the 1939 version of the Ideal Plan. That is 2,232 heavy AA guns in 279 batteries of 8 guns; 2,000 Bofors 40mm guns in 155 batteries of 12 and a reserve of 140 guns; and 4,128 searchlights in 172 batteries of 24 lights. The guns would have their full scale of Kerrison Predictors. The HAA guns might be firing proximity fused ammunition. It's likely that a GL radar as good as or better than the OTL 10 cm GL Mk III would be in service for the AA guns and Search Light Control (SLC) radar would be in service in adequate orders.

Under this version of the Plan, RAF Balloon Command was to have 1,450 barrage balloons including 450 defending London.

Overseas Malta would have received its 4 day fighter squadrons, 112 HAAG, 60 LAAG and 24 searchlights. The naval base and RAF stations would have been bomb proofed as much as possible. E.g IOTL there was a pan to dig submarine pens into the cliffs at an estimated cost equal to one T class submarine. IOTL it had the CH radar and sector operations room by 1940. ITTL it would also have a night fighter squadron, GCI radar for the night fighters and GL Mk III or better for its AA guns.

In Egypt and Palestine would be the 7th Armoured Division at full-strength and possibly an infantry division. Plus there would be 2 "colonial" divisions, that is infantry divisions organised for internal security duties like the Palestinian uprising of the late 1930s.

Tanks would be more reliable mechanically because there was time to properly test the prototypes and correct their faults. However, without operational experience the distinction between cruiser and infantry tanks might not have been discredited. In addition to the armoured divisions there would be one army tank battalion per infantry division, either allocated to the divisions or organised into Army Tank Brigades as they were IOTL.

The modernisation of the Coast Artillery at home and abroad would also have been completed. It would have been more effective because the network of Coast Defence (CD) surveillance radars would have been completed and the guns themselves would have Coast Artillery (CA) radar.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Other than it would not have been as one-sided as the IJN vs the Eastern Fleet in 1941-42, your guess is as good as mine.
Well, this case it would mainly depend on the aircrafts. But if it was a random pitch battle like Denmark Strait, e.g a bunch of Lion encounter Yamatos and worse, A150 on its way like Prince of Wales meet Bismarck OTL, the RN would get their ass whopped by Yamato, Musashi and A150 (20 inch gun would tore a Lion apart).
 
What about BBs? Do you think they would build more powerful ones after Lion (in this timeline, Lion BBs would have been completed), e.g. a super battleships like modernized G3 or I3 classes (bigger G3 with speed exceeding 30 knots as I mentioned above) at least to counter German H-class (well, you would need a BB with 18 inch gun to sink it if your CVs and naval aircrafts couldn't arrive on time)? Ship for ship, if we eliminate factors like modern radar and FCS, even the original G3 was stronger than Lion in every aspect except for AA, especially speed (32 knots vs 28.75 knots).

Btw, I think it would have been possible to build them because British economy and shipbuilding actually was growing quite well during mid to late 1930s after abandoning Gold Standard. In addition, trade wouldn't have been disrupted, and the UK wouldn't have to build merchant ships to replace losses or to enact conscription.
In reverse order the UK did enact conscription before World War II broke out to provide the personnel needed for the doubling of the Territorial Army - both the doubling of its infantry divisions and the expansion of AA Command. It would also be needed for the RAF it wanted to expand beyond the limits set by Scheme M.

The Lions were to be laid down 2-2-2 per year 1939-41 so my guess is that a repeat pair would be laid down in 1942 to replace Barham and Malaya. Even if details of the Yamato class had become known between September 1939 and the ordering of these ships under the 1942-43 programme there wasn't enough time to produce a new ship design or a new gun design. I'm not qualified to speculate on what would be laid down in 1943.
 
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