What if the Safavid Persian Empire still existed?

The Safavid Empire ruled Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and parts of several other countries including Syria and Turkey in the 18th century.

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In our timeline, this magnificent Persian empire sadly passed away after the death of Nader Shah in 1747. But what if it survived?

Unlike the rival Ottoman Empire, the Persian Empire was Shia. Importantly, it did not recognise the authority of the Sunni caliph in Istanbul, whose overthrow in the 1920s created the conditions for ISIS' so-called caliphate in more modern times.

The main rivals of Persia historically were Russia and the Turks. But Russia was also an enemy of the Ottoman Empire.

What would the world be like today if the Safavid Empire still existed? And how would modern history be different?
 

Deleted member 97083

In our timeline, this magnificent Persian empire sadly passed away after the death of Nader Shah in 1747.
Nader Shah was Afsharid, not Safavid. He deposed the last member of the Safavid dynasty and proclaimed himself Shah in 1736, creating a new Persian empire.

The Safavids had already practically collapsed, however, when Mahmud Hotak overthrew them in 1722.
 
Yes of course you are right. But i was thinking more of the borders of the Persian state as shown in the map above. I know territories were lost after Nader Shah's death. But what if this never happened, and the Persian empire as depicted above still existed?
 
Keeping Safavid Persia with the borders above would be... difficult to say the least. Some of those territories were only held at the beginning of Shah Ismail's reign, when the centre of gravity in the Safavid State was arguably more toward Eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus rather than Persia proper. Arguably, it would be easier for Safavid Iran to maintain these borders.

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As to how Iran could last, it's actually not as hard as you would think. Persia was politically stable, at least at the center. The downfall of Safavid Persia came largely due to the revolt of the Hotaki Afghans, who were not particularly numerous or well-equipped. The lack of warfare experienced after the peace between the Ottomans and the Safavids in 1639 led to the atrophy of the Persian Army's fighting ability. If you could maintain some conflict between Persia and its neighbours, it is likely that the Safavid Army could remain strong enough to defeat any internal revolt. Alternately, avoiding the later intensification of persecution within the Empire may also avoid a rising among the Sunni Afghans.

So enough of the how, and more of the what happens next. Assuming that the Safavids continue to have Shahs in a similar mold to Sultan Hussain, the leadership at the center won't be tremendously inspiring. Life in outlying provinces will continue to be dangerous, especially the east which was subject to slave raiders from Turkestan. Still, without the ravages of the Hotaki Rebellion, the Ottoman and Russian invasions as well as the reign of Nader Shah and the associated Civil Wars, Persia would be likely to have a better 18th century. The population is likely to remain closer to 9 million rather than decline to 6 million, and may well increase with the greater dissemination of new world crops (Potatoes grow well in Afghanistan for example).

Economically, the situation would not be too brilliant. Like Europe, Iran suffered from a trade deficit with India and the end of the 17th century had seen increasing amounts of bullion flow east. Without significant political change, I'm not sure how this could change, and it seems likely that Persia's balance of payment would continue to remain poor, contributing somewhat to a demonetisation of the Iranian economy. However, the survival of handicraft industries and carpet making, which collapsed following the Safavid Collapse in OTL, may alleviate the economic situation somewhat compared to OTL.

So by the 19th century, we are looking at an Persia that is at least somewhat more prosperous than OTL. When the Russians begin knocking on the door, the Persians may well be able to field more significant resources than in OTL to combat them, which means that the transformation of Persia into a mere buffer zone may take longer than usual. However, much would change by the 19th century as a surviving Safavid Persia has an enormous impact on India, which by the 19th century would probably have a significant impact on Europe too.
 
It would be interesting to see a Russo-Persian alliance, as that could lead to a strong base for attacking the Ottomans earlier on. Perhaps with the Persians accepting Russian rule over parts of Central Asia, in exchange for Mesopotamia, and the Caucuses. Russia gets to take parts of European Turkey, Persia gets some fighting experience (including later against Arabia, because a pounded Ottoman Empire won't be in the best position to hold it) and throw in Austria as a third to take the Western Balkans.

It'd be cool to see a Persia that fulfills the role of "Another Japan", as the other extra-European modern power. It'd be a fantastic ally for Russia against Britain too!
 
Another possibility that seems to make as much sense might be a three way power game between Persia, Russia and the Ottomans, with the three powers variously shifting alliances.

1. Turkish and Persian alliance against Russia, aiming to prevent Russian expansion in central Asia and the Caucasus.

2. Turkish and Russian alliance against Persia, seeking to steal Persian territory

3. Persian and Russian alliance against Turkey, seeking to carve up their territory

Option 3 could be quite promising.

If the Persian Empire survives into the 20th century I propose that the First World War may turn out differently. The Ottomans do not enter the war and stay neutral, fearing their eastern rival.

With that, the whole history of the ME changes completely. Armenia, Kurdistan and Greeks in Anatolia are all issues that would be affected.

In Iran, I propose a modern industrial nation like Japan emerges, culturally dominant in the ME. This affects the world in surprising ways, including the likely fate of secularism and approaches to religious belief. The world would be a different place. Persia might now be a centre of electronics and robotic research.

The effect on Egypt could be interesting too. The country was once Shia; would a stronger Persia revive Shia rule there too? Who knows what changes in the world of ideas such shifts would produce.
 
Unpopular to some of you maybe but if the Safavids continued war in the Caucasus and Central Asia, they would have stronger armty. War is in this case better. A smaller and easier war. It keeps you up to date.
 
Safavids were restored twice. And ruled (but did not reign) as late as 1773.

How about, Nader Shah still rules, but the followup is not consolidation of Zands, but of Ismail III?
 
Unpopular to some of you maybe but if the Safavids continued war in the Caucasus and Central Asia, they would have stronger armty. War is in this case better. A smaller and easier war. It keeps you up to date.
A decent suggestion actually. One of the reasons the Persians were defeated by the Hotaki Afghans at Gulnabad was due to the sheer lack of practice the Safavid army had gotten in recent decades.
 
Safavids were restored twice. And ruled (but did not reign) as late as 1773.

How about, Nader Shah still rules, but the followup is not consolidation of Zands, but of Ismail III?

I am busy with a timeline were Ismail III allies the Ottomans during Osman III reign (1754-1757) to recover Persia. Kinda interesting.

I wished we tried this for real...
 
Another possibility that seems to make as much sense might be a three way power game between Persia, Russia and the Ottomans, with the three powers variously shifting alliances.

1. Turkish and Persian alliance against Russia, aiming to prevent Russian expansion in central Asia and the Caucasus.

2. Turkish and Russian alliance against Persia, seeking to steal Persian territory

3. Persian and Russian alliance against Turkey, seeking to carve up their territory

Option 3 could be quite promising.


If the Persian Empire survives into the 20th century I propose that the First World War may turn out differently. The Ottomans do not enter the war and stay neutral, fearing their eastern rival.

With that, the whole history of the ME changes completely. Armenia, Kurdistan and Greeks in Anatolia are all issues that would be affected.

In Iran, I propose a modern industrial nation like Japan emerges, culturally dominant in the ME. This affects the world in surprising ways, including the likely fate of secularism and approaches to religious belief. The world would be a different place. Persia might now be a centre of electronics and robotic research.

The effect on Egypt could be interesting too. The country was once Shia; would a stronger Persia revive Shia rule there too? Who knows what changes in the world of ideas such shifts would produce.

Any alliance with Russia by the Turks or Persians is a threat for both of them in later stages. I would not go for it. .

Egypt will not turn Shia by the 18th/19th century. The public life is dominated by Sunni institutions. It isn't the Middle Ages were you can occupy the country and convert it as a state like in Iran. The best I see is missionaries to East Africa, India, Caucasus and Central Asia.
 
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