After doing some research for one of my TLs, I stumbled across some pretty interesting history about how Sweden had some pretty strong pro-German sentiments upon the outbreak of World War One, particularly amongst its monarchy. On multiple occasions prior to the outbreak of hostilities, Sweden had considered forming an alliance with either Germany or, in one instance, the Ottoman Empire to counter Russia, and Germany made multiple attempts throughout 1914 and 1915 to get Sweden to align with the Central Powers, which were rebuffed for a number of circumstantial reasons. This got me wondering what Swedish involvement in World War One as a part of the Central Powers would look like, and what the implications of this would look like in the long term.
Basically, the way I see it, the two most realistic ways to get Sweden to join the Central Powers is either by having secret discussions between the Swedish and German general staff in November 1910 evolve into Sweden becoming a third member of the Triple Alliance before WWI breaks out and joining the conflict from the get-go in 1914 when Russia declares war on Germany, or by having Zimmerman's offers for an alliance to Sweden for an alliance (including offering a restored Swedish Empire at one point) in 1915 succeed. I personally think that the long-term outcome of either scenario is similar in the broad strokes, but I'll mainly be working with the latter to make predictions, just because there's less butterflies to work with and specific post-war gains were offered by Berlin. Sweden never had all that large of an army during WWI, although its navy was much more impressive, but Swedish iron ore reserves would provide a significant to the German war effort, particularly for the German navy, and I'd wager that Swedish naval reinforcements in the North Sea against the British would be greatly appreciated, although naval warfare definitely isn't my strong suit, so I'm not really sure how much of a game-changer this would be. Additionally, even if Sweden isn't launching any impressive offensives on the Eastern Front, I'm sure opening up another frontline against the Russians would be appreciated by Berlin. Maybe needing to fend off Sweden in the north would weaken Russian defenses down south enough that it prompts an earlier Russian Revolution by a few months, and subsequently results in an earlier peace with Russia?
In the long term, there's basically two general outcomes I can see ITTL:
Basically, the way I see it, the two most realistic ways to get Sweden to join the Central Powers is either by having secret discussions between the Swedish and German general staff in November 1910 evolve into Sweden becoming a third member of the Triple Alliance before WWI breaks out and joining the conflict from the get-go in 1914 when Russia declares war on Germany, or by having Zimmerman's offers for an alliance to Sweden for an alliance (including offering a restored Swedish Empire at one point) in 1915 succeed. I personally think that the long-term outcome of either scenario is similar in the broad strokes, but I'll mainly be working with the latter to make predictions, just because there's less butterflies to work with and specific post-war gains were offered by Berlin. Sweden never had all that large of an army during WWI, although its navy was much more impressive, but Swedish iron ore reserves would provide a significant to the German war effort, particularly for the German navy, and I'd wager that Swedish naval reinforcements in the North Sea against the British would be greatly appreciated, although naval warfare definitely isn't my strong suit, so I'm not really sure how much of a game-changer this would be. Additionally, even if Sweden isn't launching any impressive offensives on the Eastern Front, I'm sure opening up another frontline against the Russians would be appreciated by Berlin. Maybe needing to fend off Sweden in the north would weaken Russian defenses down south enough that it prompts an earlier Russian Revolution by a few months, and subsequently results in an earlier peace with Russia?
In the long term, there's basically two general outcomes I can see ITTL:
- Central Powers victory in WWI: I'm kinda leaning towards this one, both because it's more interesting and seems more plausible IMO. Basically, the gist here is that a Swedish invasion of Finland, while not very notable by itself, results in a slightly quicker collapse of the Russian war effort, and a Russian Revolution of some capacity occurs in late 1916. Maybe the outcome of this revolution is akin to the OTL February Revolution and a republican provisional government replaces the Tsardom, or maybe Rasputin not yet being assassinated means that he becomes a scapegoat for public frustrations with the monarchy and Tsar Nicholas concedes to a constitutional monarchy that eventually pushes for peace with the Central Powers. Either way, peace on the Eastern Front is secured notably earlier. This allows for Germany to reorient its efforts entirely towards the Western Front much earlier and this, combined with Swedish aid in naval warfare against the United Kingdom that would prevent the naval blockade from having as demoralizing of an effect on the German populace as it did in OTL, would result in a decisive Central Powers victory at some point in 1918. The demands of the Central Powers in a decisive 1918 victory in WWI have been written about a ton on this site already, but with regards to Sweden, I think there's absolutely going to be territorial concessions from Russia. Åland is absolutely getting annexed, and while there's no way the Swedish Empire is being restored like Zimmerman proposed (although a second Swedish Empire in 1918 would be really fun to explore), I do think that the annexation of Finnish territory, if not the entirety of Finland depending on just how decisive of a victory is secured, is on the table. Alternatively, maybe Sweden just takes Lapland and the rest of Finland either becomes a Swedish puppet regime or enters into a personal union with Sweden, akin to the OTL personal union of the Grand Duchy of Finland with the Russian Empire. Either way, assuming Swedish influence is noticeably expanded east into Finland, I think the Swedish would be pretty satisfied with the outcome of WWI. Russia would no longer pose a significant threat in the Baltic Sea for the foreseeable future, the only other major power in the area would now be a close Swedish ally, Finland would be back in Stockholm's orbit, and Sweden would be positioned as a major player in northern European politics following the war. Historically, there had even been discussions of Sweden joining the proposed Mitteleuropa bloc, so I could see Sweden being well-positioned as a junior partner to the German Empire as it attempts to establish itself as the dominant power on the European continent following WWI. Domestically, in OTL, the blockade of Germany affected Swedish food supplies as well, which was one of the driving factors in causing the Swedish government to take some of its final steps towards becoming a constitutional monarchy and implementing universal suffrage. ITTL, I'd wonder if high morale from a victory on the Eastern Front combined with a weaker British blockade results in demands for these reforms being kicked down the road by at least a few years, something that would only be reinforced after the decisive German victory against the Entente. Either way, I think a Swedish victory in WWI, combined with a strong constitutional monarchy in the form of the Kaiser now being the dominant political force in Europe, results in a much more conservative and militant Sweden in OTL where the monarchy plays a more influential role in political affairs, economic and social reforms are less sweeping, and Sweden itself is perceived as a critical component of the conservative, monarchist, and imperialist world order led by Berlin after the victory against the Entente.
- Entente victory in WWI: I think a Central Powers victory on the Eastern Front like in OTL is unavoidable ITTL without some bigger changes beyond Sweden, but assuming the impact of Swedish involvement elsewhere is negligible otherwise and the outcome of the war on the Western Front is more or less the same as OTL, there are number of really interesting outcomes for Sweden IMO. For starters, Sweden isn't ever getting invaded by the Entente, so I think it potentially comes out of WWI relatively well-off compared to the other Central Powers. Maybe the Swedish hold onto territorial gains from Finland made in an alternate Brest-Litovsk treaty, although I think the Entente will demand an independent Finnish state in some capacity no matter what, and war reparations seem inevitable. Beyond that, however, I think there's a few different directions Sweden could take. While the Entente's successful blockade of Germany and Sweden ITTL would likely cause food shortages similar to, if not worse than, those in OTL and reforms transforming the Swedish monarchy into a ceremonial position would follow at the bare minimum, maybe territorial gains in Finland could be depicted as a strategic victory and Swedish frustrations with any reversal of fortunes in Finland or sanctions are targeted more at the Entente than at domestic leadership. Going into the 1920s, I'd imagine this Sweden would lean more into conservatism and nationalism, especially if the Soviet Union or some other kind of socialist regime in Russia is along its new border, and would find itself more isolated on the international stage, opting for military buildup in the coming years in response. Perhaps this alternate Sweden is vulnerable to a fascist takeover, or even reactionaries promising a return to an absolute monarchy, at some point, but I think the more likely outcome is a Swedish constitutional monarchy that goes into the mid-20th Century with a chip on its shoulder, a more militant outlook, and a political environment polarized between nationalistic economic and social conservatives on one side and a mix of social democrats, moderate socialists, and communists on the other. Assuming World War Two occurs similarly to OTL, which isn't very likely just given the butterflies at this point, maybe this more nationalistic and militaristic Sweden joins the war on the side of the Axis powers, likely to depose the Soviet Union, which I'm guessing would likely result in Sweden getting overrun by the Red Army by the time the war ends. Interestingly, one of the main motivations for the invasion of Norway in OTL was accessing a port through which Swedish iron ore was exported, so perhaps a Sweden aligned with the Axis means that an invasion of Norway never occurs? Alternatively, maybe this alternate Sweden stays neutral, albeit likely with leftover German sympathies, and Sweden continues to find itself isolated in the post-war world, albeit gradually aligning with the West during the Cold War. Alternatively, maybe food shortages and territorial losses in WWI are extreme enough to radicalize the Swedish populace into overthrowing the monarchy at some point during the end or immediate aftermath of the conflict, and a Swedish republic heavily influenced by social democrats and socialists emerges in the 1920s. I don't really have a ton of predictions for this Swedish republic scenario and IDK how plausible it is, but maybe it continues wartime level military buildup and asserts itself as more of an influential counterweight between Germany and Russia? If you wanna get really whacky, maybe Swedish communists pull a Spartacist Uprising after WWI, convinced that it's only a matter of time until the revolution in Russia spreads west, and a Swedish Civil War breaks out in the fledgling republican government.
