What if Quebec secedes in 1995-96?
- Thread starter cumbria
- Start date
Except Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland.
In economic terms the last thing the eastern provinces would want would be independence from the rest of Canada.
Of course, without federal subsidies, other economic subsidies, membership in NAFTA and businesses moving away Quebec won't be doing so well economically either.
Of course, without federal subsidies, other economic subsidies, membership in NAFTA and businesses moving away Quebec won't be doing so well economically either.
I guess it depends on the nature of the separation. OTL i am not sure quebec itself knew what it wanted, but it wasn't separation at first. Certainly there were a lot of quebecois who viewed it as a method by which they could leverage constitutional modification.
Look at the question.
Do you agree that Québec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Québec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?.
If a new sort of customs union comes about with Quebec withdrawing from confederation but we have free trade and border access, hell i think they wanted to keep the money and passports, not much will change, actually the west will be happier as the centre of gravity of political power moves further west.
If it does go completely sideways and hostile, which i doubt, the Maritimes might try and join the states, maybe. I guess it depends on how much or if Quebec balkanizes and if there is violence. The Innu, who live in the northern 2/3 of quebec were across the board opposed, and Montreal was a well i think. Certainly there were some quarters in the ROC who insisted that if Quebec went they only get to go territorially with what they came in with. That could get ugly, although frankly that sort of thing is pretty unlikely.
Honestly i expect the negotiations would go on for years, and the success of the referendum might be enough for the ROC to actually revisit the constitution and give Quebec what they have said all along they want, a veto. Actually i could see Canada staying together and restructuring. somewhat. Nothing like panic to induce constitutional change.
But in answer to your question, no the rest of Canada is unlikely to break up, although we would probably move closer to the US Politically.
That assumes rational actors willing to engage in reasonable negotiation on both sides.
In the wake of a sucessful referendum there would be two highly public reactions sure to dominate the media. In Quebec the seperatists would be dancing in the streets and their hard core would move to ensure that any moderates are drowned out and ignored. In the rest of Canada the media would highight the bitter "good ridance to bad rubbish" reaction sure to be evident from some. These two reactions would reinforce each other and drive futher bitterness and an even worse hardening of attitudes. And the media in their inimitable fashion would cover every insult and flag burning in loving detail. The leaders may forsee calm and reasonable negotiations but I think the rank and file would quickly kill that notion.
It could then get really ugly over emotional issues such as the status of the Ungava lands and the James Bay Cree especially as politicians on both sides moved to occupy positions that would allow them to survive the next election. Triumphalism on one side and a bitter backlash on the other is the most likely scenario I foresee.
I think that any successful referendum would result in emnity and bitterness for a long time.
Evilprodigy
Donor
Would Quebec be divided by who voted yes and no?
The differences in areas about who wants what are staggering
The differences in areas about who wants what are staggering