What if Nazi Germany stayed on defensive post fall of France

[Horseshoe]

What if Nazi Germany after the fall of France 1940 decided to stop any future offensives still such time as a peace agreement was reach with UK and it's allies with the only exception of having to help out italy in Greece mainland and yugoslavia focusing on fortifying its borders waiting for a counterattack from the allies OTL D-Day or a betrayal from the soviets

 

[Cymry-Korean]

It runs out of oil from the inability to import from the United States and abroad or it becomes dangerously dependent on the Soviet Union for oil and in some cases foodstuffs. Heating and feeding the entirety of occupied Europe wasn't exactly easy.

 

[Garrison]

What if Nazi Germany after the fall of France 1940 decided to stop any future offensives still such time as a peace agreement was reach with UK and it's allies with the only exception of having to help out italy in Greece mainland and yugoslavia focusing on fortifying its borders waiting for a counterattack from the allies OTL D-Day or a betrayal from the soviets

Literally had another thread asking the same question a week or so ago, and I think another the week before that. Essentially it surrenders all initiative to the enemy as well the points UoBLoyalist raised. The idea was considered by the Germans and rejected because it was offered nothing but the prospect of a long drawn out defeat with no chance of victory.

 

[miketr]

I dont know going turtle would have some advantage. If the Germans go hog wild on this stance. IE they end USR, end the bombings and ask for talks its going to put FDR into an impossible situation. There is now ZERO chance he can get the US into the war and that was the UKs only long term hope was get USA into the war.

Worse what if the Germans call talks without the British? IE they invite everyone (except Poles of course) or get Sweds or Swiss to host talks so there are British diplomates in the city. The Germans start talking with France, Belgium, Netherlands, etc about peace. This is going to put Churchill in a real bind.

Would it work? No clue. It requires Hitler to not be Hitler to an extent but maybe we can rationalize that against his real goal of Soviets and 'living space' in the east.
Michael

 

[Catspoke]

A possible variation of this is that Germany fully realizing sea lion won't work, doesn't bother, skips the air battle over Britain, saving hundreds of air craft for Barbarossa. Also removes disruption of German economy by pulling barge traffic to the channel for Sea Lion prep. Basically start prepping for Barbarossa, July 41, saving pilots, fuel and aircraft for the main event. Risks are Britain picks on vichy or italy in the meantime.

 

[Peebothuhlu]

At work.

Just a question to clarify some of my own ignorance of history.

With the Germans running across France. Did they, at the same time, mount anything (Air, sea what have you) at the Brits?

I gather there was/were attacks against ships in the channel. Just how hard were they pressing against the Brits at this time?

Would a 'Backing off' of air sorties against the Brits actually be to the Brits advantage, the German's disadvantage?

Though I suppose keeping German planes over Europe means anyone getting shot down is staying in Europe. Good for Germans, bad for Brits....

Cheers.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

It runs out of oil from the inability to import from the United States and abroad or it becomes dangerously dependent on the Soviet Union for oil and in some cases foodstuffs. Heating and feeding the entirety of occupied Europe wasn't exactly easy.

This. Germany, even with France defeated, is still losing strategically. It had to take the resources of the Soviet Union to have a hope at winning the war and 1941 was it's last real chance to do it

 

[Quintuplicate]

Could Germany have won?

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Could Germany have won?

IMHO No.

Unless the UK voluntarily chose to seek a peace with it by early 1941.

Which a renewal of "phoney war" with Germany not attacking British interests is, to say the least, not guaranteed to obtain.

And with no Battle of Britain or USW campaign the UK is free to attack Italy to even greater effect in the Mediterranean and East Africa. While also provoking Germany through air raids into breaking its self imposed "armistice".

What kind of excessively generous peace terms could even tempt the UK and the Dominions to enter talks or sign an Armistice?

 

[tomo pauk]

The best move the Germans can play - go defensive after Summer of 1940.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

What if Nazi Germany after the fall of France 1940 decided to stop any future offensives still such time as a peace agreement was reach with UK and it's allies with the only exception of having to help out italy in Greece mainland and yugoslavia focusing on fortifying its borders waiting for a counterattack from the allies OTL D-Day or a betrayal from the soviets

Peace on what terms? No way the UK gives in what Hitler will demand. This isn't going to be a delicate diplomatic dance, it'll be Hitler ranting and raving with demands like 'Give us Malta' or whatever.

Even if in the 'best case' it ends up being the 20th century version of the Peace of Amiens.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

The best move the Germans can play - go defensive after Summer of 1940.

Not possible.
Germany would've ended up as a Soviet puppet in the medium to long term due its utter lack of strategic resources. (Oil, rare materials, etc.)
Couple this with the fact that long term mobilization was not sustainable for an already teetering German economy, and the fact that the USSR was fast refiting it's own army to blunt any future German invasion, the window for "winning" was on a permanent count down timer.

However, given these insurmountable economic realities, and the impossibility of forcing the collapse of the Stalinist regime within a single campaign season, we now know the war was lost the minute the Wehrmacht stepped foot in Poland.

 

[tomo pauk]

Not possible.
Germany would've ended up as a Soviet puppet in the medium to long term due its utter lack of strategic resources. (Oil, rare materials, etc.)
Couple this with the fact that long term mobilization was not sustainable for an already teetering German economy, and the fact that the USSR was fast refiting it's own army to blunt any future German invasion, the window for "winning" was on a permanent count down timer.

However, given these insurmountable economic realities, and the impossibility of forcing the collapse of the Stalinist regime within a single campaign season, we now know the war was lost the minute the Wehrmacht stepped foot in Poland.

Opting not to go to the war is certainly possible.
Especially in this case: without the ever-bigger armed forces, the need for rare materials and oil drops significantly - those are economic realities, or just common sense. Germany imported more fuel in 1942 than they did in 1940. Production of Bf 109s was double in Spring of 1941 vs. Summer of 1940 in OTL.
Need for long-term mobilization just ended in Summer/Autumn of 1940 ITTL.

 

[schai]

Not possible.
Germany would've ended up as a Soviet puppet in the medium to long term due its utter lack of strategic resources. (Oil, rare materials, etc.)
Couple this with the fact that long term mobilization was not sustainable for an already teetering German economy, and the fact that the USSR was fast refiting it's own army to blunt any future German invasion, the window for "winning" was on a permanent count down timer.

However, given these insurmountable economic realities, and the impossibility of forcing the collapse of the Stalinist regime within a single campaign season, we now know the war was lost the minute the Wehrmacht stepped foot in Poland.

What would be Hitler's chance if he tried to conquer middle east through Turkey? Middle east would be able to provide the oil.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

What would be Hitler's chance if he tried to conquer middle east through Turkey? Middle east would be able to provide the oil.

No it wouldn't. The Middle East was not the massive oil production juggernaut from the rest of the 20th century. The USSR and USA were the two largest oil producers, with the United States accounting for 63% of global oil production in 1941.

 

[thaddeus]

A possible variation of this is that Germany fully realizing sea lion won't work, doesn't bother, skips the air battle over Britain, saving hundreds of air craft for Barbarossa. Also removes disruption of German economy by pulling barge traffic to the channel for Sea Lion prep. Basically start prepping for Barbarossa, July 41, saving pilots, fuel and aircraft for the main event. Risks are Britain picks on vichy or italy in the meantime.

the missed opportunity was with fully functioning torpedoes? https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1599&context=etd

the loss of RN capital ships prior would allow them to forego the BoB?

 

[Catspoke]

the missed opportunity was with fully functioning torpedoes? https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1599&context=etd

the loss of RN capital ships prior would allow them to forego the BoB?

There may be a couple of extra high profile capital ship losses, although the British would get cautious then, i.e if Ark Royal was sunk by torpedo in this time line they would keep courageous in port. But yes Britain more on her heels due to this, opens up more options for Germany including a naval only strategy. thanks for the link, an interesting read.

 

[HexWargamer]

Peace on what terms? No way the UK gives in what Hitler will demand. This isn't going to be a delicate diplomatic dance, it'll be Hitler ranting and raving with demands like 'Give us Malta' or whatever.

Even if in the 'best case' it ends up being the 20th century version of the Peace of Amiens.

Have to assume H. has zero interest in 'demanding' anything from the Brits other than drop the blockade... and has no interest in what Mussillini is getting up to in the Med. / Africa
So maybe an offer along the lines of Germany to withdraw from Paris == maybe even agree to withdraw from all of France in exchnage for some sort of 'DMZ' (less Alsac Lorraine of course). In exchange both sides abandon all attempts at blockade, so immediate cease-fire in the Atlantic, withdrwal of U-boats (H. could even offer to stop building U-boats)
Hitler gets a free hand to the East, Britain gets a free hand in the Med (too bad for Mussillini) ... plus some other sweetners eg. Poland becomes a 'protectorate' of Germany (so the deal can be sold to the Britsh public). . IF H. can get the Brits. to drop the blockade or get the Americans to ignore the blockade, then he can get American oil ... Plus there's the Rumanian oil and oil from the Soviets up to the point when H. invades.
We know Hitler has enough resources to fight and loose the BoB AND support Mussillini in North Africa, Yugoslavia and Greece/ Crete then go on to invade USSR in OTL .. so drop all of that and he has more than enough to start on the USSR later ... the later the better because if Stalin invades first H. gets to be the 'victim' rather than the 'aggressor' == so ii's in H. interest to 'provoke' Stalin .. ine the lever could well be Stalin's invasion of Finland (I would bet if H.offered the Fins military support they would keep fighting)

 

[Cryhavoc101]

No.

Because by July 1940 Hitler's word has less value than piss steam in the international community

He has invaded through conniving politicking backed by armed force

Czechoslovakia
Austria

Invaded militarily

Poland
Denmark
Norway
Netherlands
Belgium
Luxemburg
France

He is definitely and unambiguously the baddie

 

[Catspoke]

No.

Because by July 1940 Hitler's word has less value than piss steam in the international community

He has invaded through conniving politicking backed by armed force

Czechoslovakia
Austria

Invaded militarily

Poland
Denmark
Norway
Netherlands
Belgium
Luxemburg
France

He is definitely and unambiguously the baddie

Considering that, Britain would have to view any peace as militarily favorable to staying in the war. As long as Britain is safe from invasion, Britain can stay in a couple of years and see if the situation goes favorable which it did OTL, if Germany hunkered, the war could last a long time, if the USA remains out.

But for that to happen, for the USA to stay out Germany has to make final peace with Vichy and allow them to resist Japanese incursion in Indochina, of course this kind of thing takes a Bismarck not a Hitler.