What if Mitsuo Fuchida leads the attack on Midway Island on June 4th 1942?

Those are all great questions. On the last part, you lump Akagi in with Kaga and Soryu, but her fires were different, more like Hiryu, not like the other two at all. Kaga and Soryu were hit and their hangers had, literally within seconds of the attack, blown apart along the lengths of the ships. Akagi's fires, like Hiryu's, were much slower to become out of control, such that even an hour later they were hoping to contain the blazes. On Soryu, "her damage had been so rapid and severe, and the slaughter of her crew so wholesale, that only cursory efforts were made to save her." On Kaga, "The condition in Kaga's hangers immediately after the bombing were horrific beyond description". But on Akagi, "Near at Hand, Soryu was heavily afire.....Kaga <was> burning furiously. Yamaguchi tried to make out the situation on Akagi. She was still steaming northward. To the bridge watch he announced that the flagship was still proceeding at good speed and her damage appeared to be slight".

The hit on the rear edge of the central elevator was right on top of the B5N2's stored on the hanger deck below, but unlike in Kaga and Soryu, they didn't chain detonate. Akagi's fires took a while to get going, and unlike this pair, her total killed were much lower, (267 killed on Akagi, similar to Hiryu's 392, far less than Kaga's 811 and Soryu's 711). The theory is that the reason why Akagi burns like Hiryu and not like the other two is that Soryu and Kaga had all their aircraft in the hangers, and they went off in a chain instantly killing hundreds on the spot, while Akagi's were not in the hangers and burned on the flight deck where they did less damage and killed fewer people.

The Akagi had only 68 mechanics killed to Kaga's 268 and Soryu's 242. I don't know how many mechanics there were per aircraft, but including 6th Ku passengers, that translates into -

Akagi - 1.13 mechanics killed per aircraft
Kaga - 3.72
Soryu - 4.24

So Akagi had far fewer mechanics killed per aircraft than Kaga or Soryu because her launch status was different. The reason why the mid-ship hit did not set off a hanger chain-detonation starting with the B5N2's right below the blast is because those Kates were on the flight deck, not in the hanger. That's the theory, at any rate.
Iirc, your theory was that Akagi was further along that the other carriers (at least Kaga and Soryu anyway) in spotting the strike by 10.20,, hence most of the strike was on the flightdeck? Why would that be the case, was Akagi simply more efficient, or perhaps, if i'm not mistaken would have to do with the fact that Akagi was not attacked directly by the VT-8 and VT-6 TBD, hence didn't have to maneuver raically (i have to recheck SS to confirm this)? You probably read more than i did on the Midway subject, what did Best and/or his wingmen said about seeing or not many planes on their target (Akagi)?
 
I think after Midway the IJN might have more closely considered removing the D3A1's from the fleet carrier wings and going will all-B5N2 strike groups. That is, 36 x Zero, 36 x Kate, and for the Hiyo and Junyo, 24 x Zero, 21 x Kate. This probably delays operational status into the fall, but the idea is that the Kates cripple the carriers, then the IJN surface fleet finishes them off, after which, the Kates rotate ashore and the Vals come aboard for land attacks.
As it was, B5N was the aircraft they were shortest of during that period. Imo i think their combined B5N and D3A attack against carriers was fine, in fact that's what they should have done at Eastern Solomons (or at the very least, just send all available D3As first, not in small strikes, followed by all the B5Ns). As it was actually post Midway they used B5Ns for land attacks from carriers (see Junyo/Hiyo B5N attack against Cactus in mid October 1942, which was a disaster anyway as they lost half the B5Ns). Attacking the US carriers with their murderous flak nevermind fighters with just B5Ns probably would result in even worse losses compared to the OTL battles imo.

However as for Midway, being at attack against an island, i think KB should have operated just like at Tricomalee (and the smaller Cactus attack mentioned earlier), send in ALL the B5Ns with 800kg bombs against Midway (extra chutai of planes, plus larger bomb tonnage, though level attacks were less accurate), and keep ALL the D3As in reserve, which are far, FAR easier to handle in a rearming situation ( if i'm not mistaken they weren't usually armed until spotted?), so even if the chain of events re demanding a second land attack and the spotting of the US carriers is the same as OTL, there's absolutely no excuse in not spotting the D3As (2/3 with SAP bombs, 1/3 with land bombs) after the US Midway air attacks subside about 08.30 and launch about 09.00 (Hiryu and Soryu were spotting OTL earlier, by about 08.20?).

So you have a force of 69 D3As and at a minimum of 6 Zeros, but if they could land and rearm a few A6Ms before spotting they could send 9-12 Zeros. Such a massive strike could easily cripple 2 carriers (if say they find TF16), taking them out of the battle and exposing them to further attacks be it air or surface. If such an attack finds just TF17 one can imagine Yorktown will be completely overwhelmed, much like Hermes. Not sure if it can be sunk outright with just 250 kg bombs, but just 3 hits OTL caused it to stop, imagine what 10 or 15 hits can do. Probably the damage would cripple it in the same way as the OTL 3 bombs and 2 torpedo hits, the hangar totally wrecked, machinery knocked out, many fires, flooding from near misses causing hull cracks etc.

And if they're lucky these 69 D3As could find and attack all 3 US carriers and mission kill them (but not sink them) at least for the day, with subsequent air and surface attacks picking them one by one almost at will.
 
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The US CAP attacked the IJN formation and was completely defeated. Once this occurred there was no US fighter defense. This occurred some distance from the island. The US AA was ineffective outside a certain distance, while an IJN strike leader had binoculars and could easily see aircraft on the runway.
Fully loaded aircraft can't orbit over Midway for hours. What returning aircraft are they waiting for? The PBYs won't be coming back for hours, and most of the defending fighters have been shootdown already. The B-17s would be told to stay away as long as the Japanese are hanging around so what are they waiting for, and how would they know what the Americans had there anyway? They ordered the second strike because they had no idea how many more strike aircraft were based at Midway and wanted to take out the airfield to neutralize the threat.
 
Those are all great questions. On the last part, you lump Akagi in with Kaga and Soryu, but her fires were different, more like Hiryu, not like the other two at all. Kaga and Soryu were hit and their hangers had, literally within seconds of the attack, blown apart along the lengths of the ships. Akagi's fires, like Hiryu's, were much slower to become out of control, such that even an hour later they were hoping to contain the blazes. On Soryu, "her damage had been so rapid and severe, and the slaughter of her crew so wholesale, that only cursory efforts were made to save her." On Kaga, "The condition in Kaga's hangers immediately after the bombing were horrific beyond description". But on Akagi, "Near at Hand, Soryu was heavily afire.....Kaga <was> burning furiously. Yamaguchi tried to make out the situation on Akagi. She was still steaming northward. To the bridge watch he announced that the flagship was still proceeding at good speed and her damage appeared to be slight".

The hit on the rear edge of the central elevator was right on top of the B5N2's stored on the hanger deck below, but unlike in Kaga and Soryu, they didn't chain detonate. Akagi's fires took a while to get going, and unlike this pair, her total killed were much lower, (267 killed on Akagi, similar to Hiryu's 392, far less than Kaga's 811 and Soryu's 711). The theory is that the reason why Akagi burns like Hiryu and not like the other two is that Soryu and Kaga had all their aircraft in the hangers, and they went off in a chain instantly killing hundreds on the spot, while Akagi's were not in the hangers and burned on the flight deck where they did less damage and killed fewer people.

The Akagi had only 68 mechanics killed to Kaga's 268 and Soryu's 242. I don't know how many mechanics there were per aircraft, but including 6th Ku passengers, that translates into -

Akagi - 1.13 mechanics killed per aircraft
Kaga - 3.72
Soryu - 4.24

So Akagi had far fewer mechanics killed per aircraft than Kaga or Soryu because her launch status was different. The reason why the mid-ship hit did not set off a hanger chain-detonation starting with the B5N2's right below the blast is because those Kates were on the flight deck, not in the hanger. That's the theory, at any rate.
Sorry - what theory? Because I've got my copy of Shattered Sword open next to me right now and on pp253-254 it analyses where Dick Best's bomb landed and says it hit in the middle of a group of 18 torpedo planes. Now, it also says that it smashed up a piece of the nearby elevator, which came down on the planes as well, so that would have acted a barrier.
We also need to remember that Best's wingman got a near miss at the stern of Akagi that jammed the rudders. Akagi may have taken time to be lost, but she was doomed quite early on.
 
Can I also add that there's not much point speculating on exactly what's been found in any of the wrecks of Kido Butai? Firstly they were all burnt-out by the time that they sank and secondly the sinking process would have swept debris every which way. Soryu, for example, was listing and capsized before she sank stern-first, suffering an internal explosion after she sank. Kaga sank on an even keel, but Hiryu and Akagi both went down nose-first, at such an angle that in both cases their propellers rose into the air before the final dive - and anything inside would have then been subject to a wave of water going through them.
So, the location of any aircraft debris within any of the wrecks is not in any way indicative of where they were initially. The debris fields probably contain a lot of aircraft parts.
 
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Dunno..... the aircraft is surely going to be more accurate, and while it is unlikely to destroy the net from what I can recall of the net buoys, the weight of a sinking aircraft could very well overcome the buoyancy of the net buoys and sink a large section of it.
The Japanese weren't into kamikaze tactics at the start of the war. What highly trained pilots were they going to order to kill themselves in the first battle of the war? The idea of flying planes into a number of buoys is nuts. The first wave wouldn't even see any anti-torpedo nets until they started their attack runs, and any planes flying ahead would have a hard time hitting a buoy, so they'd be dying for nothing.
 
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Iirc, your theory was that Akagi was further along that the other carriers (at least Kaga and Soryu anyway) in spotting the strike by 10.20,, hence most of the strike was on the flightdeck? Why would that be the case, was Akagi simply more efficient, or perhaps, if i'm not mistaken would have to do with the fact that Akagi was not attacked directly by the VT-8 and VT-6 TBD, hence didn't have to maneuver raically (i have to recheck SS to confirm this)? You probably read more than i did on the Midway subject, what did Best and/or his wingmen said about seeing or not many planes on their target (Akagi)?

I'll do a thread.

Attacking the US carriers with their murderous flak nevermind fighters with just B5Ns probably would result in even worse losses compared to the OTL battles imo.

Santa Cruz was a bit of a wash in that respect. 20 out of 33 Vals were shot down during or after their attack, 19 out of 36 Kates. Pretty brutal on both accounts, but with the Kates, when they hit, they did crippling damage.

However as for Midway, being at attack against an island, i think KB should have operated just like at Tricomalee (and the smaller Cactus attack mentioned earlier), send in ALL the B5Ns with 800kg bombs against Midway (extra chutai of planes, plus larger bomb tonnage, though level attacks were less accurate), and keep ALL the D3As in reserve, which are far, FAR easier to handle in a rearming situation

Yes, that would have been a far better arrangement.
 
Fully loaded aircraft can't orbit over Midway for hours.

KB approached to about 160nm from Midway before turning northeast after 0830. Returning aircraft moved at about 145kt, so it would take about an hour to return assuming Nagumo continues moving towards Midway. IJN strike aircraft could remain aloft for about 6 hours, (takeoff at 0430, so ditchings at 1030), meaning that as of 0600 the strike had some hours they could have waited, provided that Nagumo continues to sail towards Midway.
 
So, the location of any aircraft debris within any of the wrecks is not in any way indicative of where they were initially. The debris fields probably contain a lot of aircraft parts.

Akagi's bomb location and her sinking location are marked on the Action Chart of the Nagumo Report, (the IJN reported bomb location does not appear in Shattered Sword and is not the same as what is marked as the bomb location in Shattered Sword). The distance between Akagi's bomb and sinking locations according to the Nagumo Report is about 16 miles. If Kates appear anywhere in Akagi's debris trail towards her bombing location, then these Kates were on the flight deck and were either blown off or pushed off during efforts to fight the fires. If no Kate wreckage appears in the debris trail, or not until a couple miles from the wreck, then they were most likely in the hangers.

Sorry - what theory? Because I've got my copy of Shattered Sword open next to me right now and on pp253-254 it analyses where Dick Best's bomb landed and says it hit in the middle of a group of 18 torpedo planes.

Kaga and Soryu's planes blew up in the hangers, hence about 4 mechanics killed per plane. Akagi only lost around 1 mechanic per plane killed, so something about Akagi's situation is different than Kaga. The problem is this,

"These aircraft, 18 in all <sic, actually 17> were fully fuelled and armed with torpedoes. The bomb have landed right on top of the aircraft nearest the elevator. It appears that the hit took some time to initiate a large blaze on the hanger deck."

Each Kate carried about 300 gallons of gas. A 1,000lbs bomb going off right on top of four of them would have instantly lit off about 1,200 gallons of gas in a massive explosion within seconds of the bomb blast. That did not happen. Shattered Sword offers no theory on that, because a bomb should have instantly torched the first Kates that, when they blow within second, blow the next Kates down the line in a 'chain', just like what killed so many mechanics on Kaga and Soryu. . The simplest explanation for why Akagi's hangers were not instantly ablaze like on the other two being that the Akagi's Kates were not at that moment directly below the bomb blast.
 
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I'll do a thread.
Looking forward to it and your take on the chain of events. Probably a silly thing as a sidenote, but i was looking today at the video from the Ballard expedition, now i'm a grown-ass 40 something yo man and i swear my eyes got wet seeing Akagi. So yeah.

PS: something strange, i see Ballard pics showing a twin-gun mount labelled as 127 mm (which would be the Type 89 AA gun), however Akagi is said to have carried the older 120mm AA guns until Midway (planned to be replaced with Type 89s after Midway). Is Ballard simply making a mistake or it's actually true and Akagi might have received Type 89s before Midway?! (the only time this could have been done being the period spent under maintenance in Japan just before the battle)
 
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Looking forward to it and your take on the chain of events. Probably a silly thing as a sidenote, but i was looking today at the video from the Ballard expedition, now i'm a grown-ass 40 something yo man and i swear my eyes got wet seeing Akagi. So yeah.

PS: something strange, i see Ballard pics showing a twin-gun mount labelled as 127 mm (which would be the Type 89 AA gun), however Akagi is said to have carried the older 120mm AA guns until Midway (planned to be replaced with Type 89s after Midway). Is Ballard simply making a mistake or it's actually true and Akagi might have received Type 89s before Midway?! (the only time this could have been done being the period spent under maintenance in Japan just before the battle)
Nice catch. My grandfather and father told me of some undocumented features of the Iowa's and NC, that I confirmed in person when visiting the New Jersey and North Carolina. There's more to some ships than the records indicate.
 
KB approached to about 160nm from Midway before turning northeast after 0830. Returning aircraft moved at about 145kt, so it would take about an hour to return assuming Nagumo continues moving towards Midway. IJN strike aircraft could remain aloft for about 6 hours, (takeoff at 0430, so ditchings at 1030), meaning that as of 0600 the strike had some hours they could have waited, provided that Nagumo continues to sail towards Midway.
Not with full bomb loads. Knock off say 1 hour of flight time. That means they have to return by 0930 hrs. only a little latter than they landed in the OTL. Return flight is a bit over 1 hour and then time to get into a landing pattern to come aboard so they have to start back at 0800 hrs. at the latest. They have to attack by 0730 hrs. No aircraft will be back by then. The PBYs won't be back for hours, and the B-17s will stay away as long as Japanese aircraft are over Midway so, their waiting for nothing. The first strike will be returning to the KB while the attacks on the carriers were in progress.
 
Not with full bomb loads. Knock off say 1 hour of flight time. That means they have to return by 0930 hrs. only a little latter than they landed in the OTL.

I figured the Kates would have to attack by 0830 and the Vals probably earlier than that (form up and departure times being different), so that's close to the same ballpark. Historically, the Midway strike returned to the vicinity of the carriers around 0800.
 
PS: something strange, i see Ballard pics showing a twin-gun mount labelled as 127 mm (which would be the Type 89 AA gun), however Akagi is said to have carried the older 120mm AA guns until Midway (planned to be replaced with Type 89s after Midway). Is Ballard simply making a mistake or it's actually true and Akagi might have received Type 89s before Midway?! (the only time this could have been done being the period spent under maintenance in Japan just before the battle)

No idea on anything AA related.
 
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