What if Germany had classified Otto Hahn's research?

[Mostlyharmless]

Title says it all really. Inspired by the thread on Germany making an A-bomb, I am asking what would have happened if a German official, no necessarily very senior, had decided that nuclear research had potential military or economic applications and had prevented Hahn from writing to Lise Meitner or otherwise publishing. In addition, Lise Meitner might have been arrested before leaving Germany. The idea that a nuclear weapon is possible was quite popular at the time being central to at least two pre-war novels. However, power stations would be equally interesting.

You may wish to assume that Fermi would have continued his experiments and that another chemist would have realised that fission was occurring. The problem is that Fermi was convinced that he was making transuranic elements. That might have helped him later to produce plutonium but without fission there is no chain reaction and thus no possible bomb. Thus, if the Meitner and Frisch theory of fission is not found before Dec. 1941, all the scientists will be given important war work on radar etc.

 

[Astrodragon]

It would have been discovered by someone else in the next 6-12 months. Thats what normally happens in science, indeed its common for people to find when they publish that someone else is also publishing!

 

[Mostlyharmless]

Normally I would agree with Astrodragon but both 1939-41 and nuclear physics were special. There were very people working on nuclear physics in 1939. Enough for rapid progress but sufficiently few that we can identify possible replacements for Hahn and Meitner. The obvious people to replace them were the group at Berkeley. Seaborg could have made Hahn's discovery. However, he was a nice guy and was actually most interested in making isotopes to help medicine. The lab only turned to uranium after fission had been revealed. Nevertheless in normal times Berkeley would have got there in one to two years.

However, between 1939 and 1941 most physicists were drawn into radar research. For example, Seaborg and McMillan started work on the transuranic elements and shared the Nobel. However, McMillan (and Luis Alvarez) moved to the radar research from Nov. 1940. The only reason Fritsch and Peierls could calculate the critical mass for uranium (in Britain in 1940) was that they were not employed in war work because they were enemy aliens. Thus I suspect that without the announcement of fission, nobody would have done the work until WW2 finished. The same would have been true in Germany if Hahn's results had not gone to Meitner and Fritsch.

Naturally I expect very rapid progress after WW2 as the number of physicists had greatly increased.

 

[oberdada]

Naturally I expect very rapid progress after WW2 as the number of physicists had greatly increased.

If this doen't completly change the outcome of WWII (very unlikely) I doubt there is a government able and willing to fund such research.
The Manhattan Project wasn't a bargain after all!

 

[Kordo]

I think there is a good chance that someone would have done the same research as Hahn within a year or two, which would have been enough to push back the development of the A-bomb several years after WWII ended, since it is likely that as several members have already mentioned, many researchers would have gone into Radar research or something similar.

 

[dummnutzer]

A sudden lack of scientific publications by a major scientist would have been noticed by foreign governments.

The US banned any publications on phosphor-organic chemistry to protect the secret of DDT. German intelligence (what an oxymoron) realized that there was a lack of publications and asked German scientists about possible breakthroughs in this area. The Germans had just developed the first nerve agents, and assumed that the US had done something similar.

A ban on publication would likely not have worked and possibly boosted enemy research ... maybe some publications containing fascinating fake data supporting the wrong approach to a problem.

 

[Mostlyharmless]

dummnutzer makes a good point. However, physicists were stopping publication everywhere at that time as they were drawn into military research. Thus the explanation might not have involved the previous field of the scientist. I also suspect that Hahn's lab would have had many other less exciting results to publish.

Just for the record, dare I make a few pedantic corrections:

1. The publications ban was on the whole field of insecticides to avoid helping German agriculture expand production and oppose the British blockade.
2. DDT does not contain phosphorus
3. DDT was first used in Switzerland in 1939 after Paul Mueller's research at Ciba-Geigy

 

[dummnutzer]

MEA CVLPA MEA CVLPA MEA MAXIMA CVLPA

Yep, DDT is an organochlorine, while e.g Sarin is a phosphonate.

But as some dead chemist said: Chemistry is out. Physic gives a louder BANG, and biology is more interesting.

 

[Mostlyharmless]

Sorry Dummnutzer! I was worried about the people who get their scientific and historical information exclusively from our discussions of alien space bats. I expect that you could get someone from Friends of the Earth to certify that DDT was more dangerous than sarin, because sarin is biodegradable.

How about having Hahn agree to transfer his work for 1938-39 to understanding corrosion in the Navy's high pressure boilers? He could tell his foreign colleagues that he was forced to accept that as a price of getting an exit visa for Lise Meitner.

If he found useful inhibitors, it might allow the battleship Scharnhorst to survive for a year longer before she was sunk by British bombers http://warships1discussionboards.yuku.com/topic/7190/t/Scharnhorst-s-fatal-flaw.html