What if China collapsed?

[walmart]

I see a fundamental disagreement here in the nature of the civil war in Chana in the 1920s. The KMT emergence was certainly not a 'feudal ' event. Neither was the Communist takeover of a couple provinces.

I was referring to the idea of China collapsing into regional warlords/strongmen .

Beyond that a number of the warlords owed nothing to any overlord, being self-made as it were or leaders in a local coalition of city governments and powerful businessmen.

So? The point is large political constructs, empires if you will, frequently fly apart into multiple states when the central government ceases to be effective. The details differ but the basic pattern is similar.

You need an ideological basis for modern warfare be it religion, ideology, or ethnicity. The rule of the strong isn't going to cut it.

 

[walmart]

The idea of China collapsing into a second warlord era is on par with the idea of a second American civil war being a repeat of the first.

 

[AV69]

Having half your population opposed to independence while being supported by the Chinese government is a problem

Which is not really a problem.

In Uyghuristan either the Uyghurs ethnic cleanse the Han colonisers or the Han genocide the Uyghurs, the partition will happen sooner which is definite, the two cannot co-exist.

In other places I think you over-emphasise the importance of national self-determination too much. Places like Tibet, Manchuria and Canton are not isolated. India, Japan and Vietnam always have an incentive to support their independence, nationalities was not a decisive factor when it came to secession, geopolitical factor, political factor in a civil war, religious factor, economic factor, even trade factor are common factors that nations secede from each other, Uruguay and Argentine are the same nation yet they split from each other due to trade. Ukraine were once the most Russian out of Russians yet they secede. India contains many people yet it unites because of the British Raj.

Differences between nations are not innate, but rather a process being fostered and nurtured.

 

[AV69]

The feudal struggle which was the warlord era is impossible. China is a lot more united and connected along with a unified national identity.

Not if it is fabricated in only 60 years' time, counting from 1910s.

Chinese nation is an identity invented by Qing propagandists to curb revolutionary agitation, who sought a Han national state.

Nothing new but an imitation to Austria-Hungary's Danubian identity or Ottomanism.

 

[Beatriz]

@Dan1988 What would happen to China?

 

[DG Valdron]

And don't forget, the USSR was still (mostly) the old Russian Empire, which means much of it was made up of conquered and trod upon peoples, most of which with their own (if repressed) cultures, religion and language. Compared to this, China has been one country for milenia.

Except for Mongols in the north, Tibetans in the East and Manchurians in the northwest and and Uyghers in Xinjiang. Just saying.

There are 55 recognized minorities in China.

 

[AV69]

Impossible? The provincial governors filled in when the central government became ineffective. Practically ceased to exist. The provinces became warlord states in filling the vacuume. This has repeatedly occurred in global history, and in Chinas history. Roman central government became ineffective and the empire disintegrated into multiple states. The Austrian Empire flew apart into four or five new separate nations and other territories joined neighboring states, There are endless examples of this across five or six millennia. The details vary, but Chinas empires have disintegrated into waring states or civil wars over and over.

Nations are always man-made constructs.

Had the state faced a great enemy that threatened its liberty/survival. It is always convenient to invent some fable and tales to show why its independence is justified, "we are a different nation differ from those lowly bastards in the north, we don't eat shit".

This happens a lot. Slovakians never had their own state, yet they try hard to prove that they worth one. Finns and Estonians emphasised a lot about their yellowness and their Asiatic heritage. Turanism could happen in Finland and Hungary, then why not in Manchuria where Manchu speaks a Tungistic language. Surely Manchuria has more Turkic ingredient than that in Finland

In Serbia is a farce, initially nobody believes there is a term called "Bosnian", yet Bosnian is invented due to Serbian threat, and then Macedonians, sooner or later Kosovan will come to existence, these are the course of newborn nations. If Kosovo can invent a new nation there is no reason Hokkien and Canton could not invent one, their language is incomprehensible with Pekinese Mandarin, lives, customs and economic circles differ greatly. All they need is a "Serbia" bad guy

 

[Risenemperor7]

Little late to the party but the correct way to answer this is "the exact same thing that happened whenever a Chinese Dynasty fell".

The CCP should really be seen in that context just like the Republic before it. As long as a system of government can deliver what the good old Mandate of Heaven called for to the Chinese people, they'll have legitimacy. When they can't consistently deliver prosperity, the system has a built in Civil War "mechanic" to determine the next "Dynasty".

 

[AV69]

Little late to the party but the correct way to answer this is "the exact same thing that happened whenever a Chinese Dynasty fell".

The CCP should really be seen in that context just like the Republic before it. As long as a system of government can deliver what the good old Mandate of Heaven called for to the Chinese people, they'll have legitimacy. When they can't consistently deliver prosperity, the system has a built in Civil War "mechanic" to determine the next "Dynasty".

I have to say it is a romantic interpretation that mistakes material forces for spiritual, CCP takes "the mandate of heaven" because Russians want it to, if the Russians secured a deal with Chinese and Americans then CCP can do nothing about it but cling onto its fiefdom in Manchuria. The rest will look like Communists in Greece

 

[Risenemperor7]

I have to say it is a romantic interpretation that mistakes material forces for spiritual, CCP takes "the mandate of heaven"

Not at all, the name and the concept are indeed romantic but they represent an ingrained expectation, sort of a social contract that anybody who aspires to conquer China has to conform to. Almost every country or civilization at large has similar ingrained expectations or notions of what makes a leader or who can be a leader or who is a worthy to support leader.

 

[walmart]

In Uyghuristan either the Uyghurs ethnic cleanse the Han colonisers or the Han genocide the Uyghurs, the partition will happen sooner which is definite, the two cannot co-exist.

The latter means no Uyghuristan and the former isn't possible without a foreign army

In other places I think you over-emphasise the importance of national self-determination too much. Places like Tibet, Manchuria and Canton are not isolated. India, Japan and Vietnam always have an incentive to support their independence, nationalities was not a decisive factor when it came to secession, geopolitical factor, political factor in a civil war, economic factor, even trade factor are common factors that nations secede from each other, Uruguay and Argentine are the same nation yet they split from each other due to trade. Ukraine were once the most Russian out of Russians yet they secede. India contains many people yet it unites because of the British Raj.

There is no separatism in Han-majority areas. I don't know why people have this obsession with balkanizing China.

Not if it is fabricated in only 60 years' time, counting from 1910s.

It exists now, you can't just turn the clock back to the warlord era.

 

[AV69]

The latter means no Uyghuristan and the former isn't possible without a foreign army

There is no separatism in Han-majority areas. I don't know why people have this obsession with balkanizing China.

It exists now, you can't just turn the clock back to the warlord era.

Yeah and the clock has to stay still and things has to keep still in order to make you happy

 

[Remitonov]

The feudal struggle which was the warlord era is impossible. China is a lot more united and connected along with a unified national identity.

So was the Republic of China the CCP overthrew, theoretically. Didn't do a whole lot of good preventing the mass of warlords spawning since its existence. When push comes to shove, Han nationalism won't be enough to prevent ambitious regional leaders from taking the reins if central authority collapses, possibly to make a go at the top job as the unifier. Worse is what happens in the frontier provinces, where minorities dominate. The Uyghurs and Tibetans would make a go at independence, while other minorities like the Zhuang would start becoming more autonomous from whatever power takes control of the Chinese government.

 

[walmart]

So was the Republic of China the CCP overthrew, theoretically. Didn't do a whole lot of good preventing the mass of warlords spawning since its existence.

What do you mean? There was no warlord period after the KMT lost the mainland.

When push comes to shove, Han nationalism won't be enough to prevent ambitious regional leaders from taking the reins if central authority collapses, possibly to make a go at the top job as the unifier

You need an actual ideology for modern conflict. Civil war is possible, random warlords is not.

 

[walmart]

A remake of Romance of the Three Kingdoms with AK-47s and Nukes isn't going to happen. Any modern Chinese civil war is going to be well, a modern civil war.

 

[Remitonov]

What do you mean? There was no warlord period after the KMT lost the mainland.

I mean the early Republic (1910s-1930s), before WWII, though technically, the Warlord Era only truly ended with the CCP victory after the remaining warlords are forced into exile, died or joined the Communists.

 

[Wr1t3r]

The feudal struggle which was the warlord era is impossible. China is a lot more united and connected along with a unified national identity.

I mean, Mao was heavily disliked

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I mean the early Republic (1910s-1930s), before WWII, though technically, the Warlord Era only truly ended with the CCP victory after the remaining warlords are forced into exile, died or joined the Communists.

Technically I suppose so. Tho the KMT had been making slow progress until the Japanese intervened. That rather set the KMT back. Absent a Japanese invasion my take is by 1950 or not long after the warlords or rebellious provincial governors (which is how they originated) are neutralized. The KMT would also have turned its attention to the Communist enclave in the NW.