What if Byzantium was unable to capture the Vandal Kingdom of Carthage.

[JErosion]

As it says on the tin, The Vandal Kingdom had a lot of problems facing it, two years before Justinian made his move there was a Coup overthrowing the Byzantine Friendly King Hilderic. Vandal Nobility hadn't like Hilderic and his conversion to Catholicism, however they soon soured to the new King Gelimer who's shaky legitimacy was hurt when he began persecuting his enemies. Justinian didn't like the changes in the Vandal Kingdom and used the Gelimer's refusal to restore his Cousin to the Throne and his persecution of Catholics as a pretext to declare war. Justinian played discontented nobles against Gelimer, and helped insight rebellions in Sardinia and in Tripoli. Which divided the efforts of the Vandal Navy and Army.

So the question is with either a different King on the throne of Carthage, or perhaps a Gelimer with a different temperament that doesn't piss off the nobles. What would happen if the Vandal Kingdom was able to repel the advances of the Byzantine Army, assuming that the Vandal Navy and army wasn't trying to put out the rebellions, like they put those revolts on the back burner in light of the hostilities with the ERE.

Would Justinian try again later or would this failure force the Emperor to shelve some of his ambitions, as he already faced the most famous act Hooliganism in the medieval world, The Nika Riots.

Also if he couldn't take North Africa would conquering Kingdom of the Ostrogoths even be an option.

Further would a locally governed Vandal Kingdom be more likely to repel the Muslim Conquests? If yes that opens so many butterflies, If the Vandal Kingdom stays intact then so does Visigoth Iberia, separate Frankish and Occitan states (Speaking of which were are all the Occitan wank threads?)

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

I think the Vandals would've given Belisarius a run for his money had they not been distracted by Godas' insurrection in Sardinia. Also it should be noted that the expeditionary force Justinian had entrusted to Belisarius was on a shoestring budget - if Belisarius faces the full might of the Vandalic army, he has a chance of losing and ended up killed. Tripolitania is likely lost to the Eastern Empire even with a Vandal victory as the Roman population had already revolted under Pudentius and returned to imperial rule. As for Italy, the Eastern Empire invaded due to the very pro-Roman queen Amalasuntha's assassination and Justinian would suffice making sure that she stays alive - the Roman historian Procopius wrote that Amalasuntha considering giving Italy to Justinian. Her daughter Matasuntha in OTL married Justinian's cousin and likely heir apparent Germanus. The Gothic War might end up happening.

As for the Vandals, it seems likely that they would eventually be absorbed by the (then) semi-Romanized Berber kingdoms.