What if Antony was present for the assassination of Ceaser?

As in the actual history, Mark Antony, right hand man to Ceaser, had been strategically stopped outside the temple at the time of the assassination. Being pulled aside, he was not around when Ceaser went only to learn after the deed was done that his friend was killed. He thus would flee the scene quickly before later joining Lepidus in dealing with the conspirators. Following Ceasers death and the subsequent fall out coupled with co flirt between Antony and Ceaser's heir, Octavia, eventually leading to his own demise alongside his lover Cleopatra. With the actual history of events in mind and the ramifications if Antony is present, what might have been the course of Roman History if Antony was present for the assassination of Ceaser? One possibility being that, in order to avoid the risk of Antony seeking revenge, the conspirators decide to end his life along with Ceaser's there during the Senate meeting. Alternatively, they believe that Antony could be subdued and the conspirators think it won't matter if he is present. One way or another, what happens on that infamous day known as the Ides of March?
 

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IIRC the story is that he's trying to warn Ceaser so if he got there before the stabbing started he might get Ceaser to get out of the room. From there it's likely the plotters would lose heart and turn on each other or choose suicide. Ceaser was notorious for forgiving his enemies so a lot of them would just end up exiled for life rather than killed. How this would impact the future of the Empire is anyone's guess. Octavian would be more established if Ceaser died a few years later so it's likely it passes to him without the whole civil war, but also without Egypt. Antony would be a major force but if Ceaser lived 10 more years he'd be too old to try to take over from the younger and now established Octavian.

Ceaser was also planning a war in the east so who knows how that shakes out.

If Antony gets there after the stabbing starts he's just going to get killed too. He's one man, unarmed and unarmored in a room with 50 very scared and desperate men all armed with knives. If that happens Octavian again would have a path to power in some way, but would likely still play the part of an honest Republican until he can get his legions in place to murder most of the Senate. The first Emperor was sort of known for that sort of thing. From there it's a similar result, Octavian rules a Rome without Egypt (for now) in a slightly weaker position as he wouldn't have time to build up a powerbase or an easy enemy of the people in Antony and Cleopatra to build his reputation on.
 

bguy

Donor
If Antony gets there after the stabbing starts he's just going to get killed too. He's one man, unarmed and unarmored in a room with 50 very scared and desperate men all armed with knives.

Would Antony get killed in that situation? Marcus Junius Brutus was very insistent that they conspirators not kill Antony and got the rest of the conspirators to agree, so unless Antony himself attacks the conspirators (and Antony probably won't do that because he would know it would be suicide to try) he should be spared.

If that happens Octavian again would have a path to power in some way, but would likely still play the part of an honest Republican until he can get his legions in place to murder most of the Senate. The first Emperor was sort of known for that sort of thing. From there it's a similar result, Octavian rules a Rome without Egypt (for now) in a slightly weaker position as he wouldn't have time to build up a powerbase or an easy enemy of the people in Antony and Cleopatra to build his reputation on.

If Antony does get murdered then the odds are pretty good that the assassins themselves get massacred the following day. Marcus Aemilius Lepidus, upon hearing of the assassination of Caesar, took charge of the legion of troops stationed near Rome and wanted to immediately march them into the city and wipe out the assassins. It was Antony who convinced Lepidus not to do this. If Antony's dead though then there's no one to talk Lepidus down, so he'll probably bring his troops into the city and unleash them on the assassins. (Technically Lepidus' has no legal authority to command those troops since his position as Master of the Horse expired with the death of Caesar. However, given Caesar's popularity with the troops, it shouldn't be that hard for Lepidus to convince the legion to rally to him to avenge Caesar.) The assassins had a troupe of gladiators to defend them, but that's not going to be enough to stop a full Roman legion.

With the Liberators dead, Octavian doesn't have any obvious immediate path to power. IOTL he was able to use Antony having agreed to an amnesty to the Liberators to undermine Antony's standing with the Caesarian veterans. This not only enabled Octavian to recruit his own private army from those veterans (instantly making Octavian a major power player), but it also forced Antony to start taking a harder line against the Liberators (to keep from losing all his support from the veterans) and that swing against the Liberators helped alienate Antony from Cicero and the majority of the Senate. ITTL though Octavian can't portray himeslf as the dutiful avenging son to the Caesarian veterans, since Lepidus already took care of the Liberators. Thus Octavian's rise to power is likely to be much slower and will probably follow more of a traditional Roman political career instead of his OTL meteoric rise.
 
Would Antony get killed in that situation? Marcus Junius Brutus was very insistent that they conspirators not kill Antony and got the rest of the conspirators to agree, so unless Antony himself attacks the conspirators (and Antony probably won't do that because he would know it would be suicide to try) he should be spared.
True but it's one thing to make a promise in a safe place prior to staging a coup and another to keep it when the man who you just murdered's greatest ally was in your midst witnessing your murder. It'd be likely people wouldn't think rationally in that moment and they'd lash out in response, but it is also possible that they'd try to honor that promise. They might even try to capture him as a hostage to keep the legions in line. Not that it would, but that sort of thing was common in that age.

If Antony does get murdered then the odds are pretty good that the assassins themselves get massacred the following day. Marcus Aemilius Lepidus, upon hearing of the assassination of Caesar, took charge of the legion of troops stationed near Rome and wanted to immediately march them into the city and wipe out the assassins. It was Antony who convinced Lepidus not to do this. If Antony's dead though then there's no one to talk Lepidus down, so he'll probably bring his troops into the city and unleash them on the assassins. (Technically Lepidus' has no legal authority to command those troops since his position as Master of the Horse expired with the death of Caesar. However, given Caesar's popularity with the troops, it shouldn't be that hard for Lepidus to convince the legion to rally to him to avenge Caesar.) The assassins had a troupe of gladiators to defend them, but that's not going to be enough to stop a full Roman legion.
I was actually not aware of this. If this is the case though Rome is about to go through it. Caesar was just the last in a long line of men who took power by force. Him dying and the murderers being killed in an orgy of violence would lead to a ton of instability. Especially if the troops (not known for being super discerning in times of emotional stress) decide all Senators are guilty and just go on a bit of a spree against anyone who isn't a very clear and very obvious Caesarian.
 
If Antony is there he will get killed. No way who he would not try to save Caesar and remember who the conspirators who were effectively trying to kill Cesar were only 22 or 23 (depending if the man who OTL had the job to keep Antony away is with the others or remained behind as he was unable to do his part.
So either Antony is able to save Caesar or will die with him and without Antony the so called Liberators are screwed as Lepidus would NEVER EVER make a deal with them but will act as harshly and quickly as he can in avenging Caesar for preventing any allegations about his possible involvement as he had matrimonial ties to Brutus and Cassius (his wife was one of Brutus‘ half-sisters, the other two were married to Vatia Isauricus, an influential Caesarian senator and to Cassius). In any case without Antony Octavian would find neither the space or the support for starting his OTL coup as he was used against Antony by Cicero and other enemies of Mark Antony.
 

bguy

Donor
If Antony is there he will get killed. No way who he would not try to save Caesar and remember who the conspirators who were effectively trying to kill Cesar were only 22 or 23 (depending if the man who OTL had the job to keep Antony away is with the others or remained behind as he was unable to do his part.

The conspirators did anticipate that bystanders might try to come to Caesar's aid though and detailed some of their number to "crowd control", and the conspirators on crowd control duty did succeed in preventing Gaius Calvisius Sabinus and Lucius Marcius Censorinus (the two senators who tried to come to Caesar's assistance during the assassination) from being able to help Caesar without having to kill either of them. If the conspirators were able to stop Sabinus and Censorinus without killing them why would it be any different for Antony?

So either Antony is able to save Caesar or will die with him and without Antony the so called Liberators are screwed as Lepidus would NEVER EVER make a deal with them but will act as harshly and quickly as he can in avenging Caesar for preventing any allegations about his possible involvement as he had matrimonial ties to Brutus and Cassius (his wife was one of Brutus‘ half-sisters, the other two were married to Vatia Isauricus, an influential Caesarian senator and to Cassius). In any case without Antony Octavian would find neither the space or the support for starting his OTL coup as he was used against Antony by Cicero and other enemies of Mark Antony.

Fully agree with all this.
 
The conspirators did anticipate that bystanders might try to come to Caesar's aid though and detailed some of their number to "crowd control", and the conspirators on crowd control duty did succeed in preventing Gaius Calvisius Sabinus and Lucius Marcius Censorinus (the two senators who tried to come to Caesar's assistance during the assassination) from being able to help Caesar without having to kill either of them. If the conspirators were able to stop Sabinus and Censorinus without killing them why would it be any different for Antony?
And then why the conspirators specifically destined one of them to delay Antony for keeping him away from the place where they killed Caesar? They knew who they would not be able to stop Antony (far too loyal to Caesar and far too physically strong for being dissuaded from intervening) from trying to save Caesar and then would need to kill also him for taking Caesar.
Fully agree with all this.
I think who Brutus insisted so much on not killing Antony not only because he genuinely do not wanted killed anyone but Caesar but also because he knew who Antony was the only one in the opposite party with which they could treated after Caesar’s death as Lepidus being in charge alone would be a disaster for them
 

bguy

Donor
I think who Brutus insisted so much on not killing Antony not only because he genuinely do not wanted killed anyone but Caesar but also because he knew who Antony was the only one in the opposite party with which they could treated after Caesar’s death as Lepidus being in charge alone would be a disaster for them

Cassius seemed to have recognized the danger that Lepidus represented to them as well. (Though of course Cassius' solution was that they kill Caesar, Antony, and Lepidus.)
If the assassins had killed all three men then Aulus Hirtius would probably be the leading Caesarian in Rome. The assassins might have been able to make a deal with him since Hirtius was considered a moderate man and IOTL he supported Antony' position of negotiating with the assassins over Lepidus' position of wanting to immediately move against them. (Of course Hirtius' views might be rather different if the assassins kill Caesar, Antony, and Lepidus since at that point it looks like they are conducting a general purge of the Caesarians.)
 
Cassius seemed to have recognized the danger that Lepidus represented to them as well. (Though of course Cassius' solution was that they kill Caesar, Antony, and Lepidus.)
If the assassins had killed all three men then Aulus Hirtius would probably be the leading Caesarian in Rome. The assassins might have been able to make a deal with him since Hirtius was considered a moderate man and IOTL he supported Antony' position of negotiating with the assassins over Lepidus' position of wanting to immediately move against them. (Of course Hirtius' views might be rather different if the assassins kill Caesar, Antony, and Lepidus since at that point it looks like they are conducting a general purge of the Caesarians.)
Good luck to persuade the already reluctant Brutus to going ahead with the plans if that not only included killing more people than the tyrant but also making one of his sisters a widow… Plus the most likely effect of killing also Antony and Lepidus is who, if they were successful, who is far from being guaranteed when you have to kill three men instead of only one, Rome would be in the caos as there would be no leader able to calm the situation. The Caesarians would be effectively leaderless while the Optimates would be most likely victims of a ferocious mob (as at least Caesar and Antony were extremely popular) and Rome would see a lot of blood…
 

bguy

Donor
Good luck to persuade the already reluctant Brutus to going ahead with the plans if that not only included killing more people than the tyrant but also making one of his sisters a widow… Plus the most likely effect of killing also Antony and Lepidus is who, if they were successful, who is far from being guaranteed when you have to kill three men instead of only one, Rome would be in the caos as there would be no leader able to calm the situation. The Caesarians would be effectively leaderless while the Optimates would be most likely victims of a ferocious mob (as at least Caesar and Antony were extremely popular) and Rome would see a lot of blood…

I agree it would be very difficult to successfully assassinate all three men (and all but impossible to get Brutus to agree to such a plan) but honestly if you don't assassinate all three then the whole plot is rather pointless. If you just kill Caesar then you end up with a loyal Caesarian (Antony) as the dominant figure in the Roman government. If you just kill Caesar and Antony, then Lepidus will come in and slaughter you all. Thus for the assassins' plot to have any chance of working they really have to get all three men, and if they're not willing to go that far then they should just abandon the project as a bad job.
 
I agree it would be very difficult to successfully assassinate all three men (and all but impossible to get Brutus to agree to such a plan) but honestly if you don't assassinate all three then the whole plot is rather pointless. If you just kill Caesar then you end up with a loyal Caesarian (Antony) as the dominant figure in the Roman government. If you just kill Caesar and Antony, then Lepidus will come in and slaughter you all. Thus for the assassins' plot to have any chance of working they really have to get all three men, and if they're not willing to go that far then they should just abandon the project as a bad job.
Well, I think who first they counted on a different reaction from the roman population and second they knew Antony and believed who they could get a deal with him once Caesar was dead and restore the Republic. They were almost right in that as Antony was not the kind of man who truly wanted rule Rome and he would be fine in sharing power with Lepidus and/or keep a role of First Man in Rome or going to govern Orient. What truly ruined their plans was the apparition of the ruthless and extremely ambitious Octavian on the scene (united to the fact who the latter had less respect than Marius and Pompey for the Roman political uses and traditions)
 
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