What does a 1919 armistice and peace look like

[Catspoke]

Assuming WW1 goes on into 1919. What does the armistice and peace look like? What are likely terms? What German kind of government emerges?

Historical assumptions I have heard before, but may differ from the opinions of people on this board:
1) It has always been though that a more complete Allied victory would avoid the "stab in the back" theory and the rise of Hitler.
2) A 1919 Allied victory would be an "American" peace since they would be doing the bulk of the work by 1919. The thought is an "American" dictated peace would be better.

Since how it happens matters, a couple of possible scenarios:

a) OTL through November 1st 1918. The Germans don't try a last naval sortie and continue fighting to secure better terms than the Allies are willing to give. The manage to scrape together a force to block the Brenner pass after the Austrian surrender. The Allies stop their offensive over the winter on the German frontier to build up strength, and to wait for better weather and on the Italian and Balkan fronts the Allies have to gather POWs, feed the local populations, build up infrastructure to attack through Germany, this takes all winter. A May 1919 offensive crushes Germany and the Allies are across the Rhine in 3 months taking Frankfurt and Karlshrue before the German request an armistice on any terms.

b) The German 1918 offensive goes a littler better than OTL and the Allied have to continue to withdraw forces from Italy, Salonika and Palestine to make up for it. The result is the Allies are at the same point they were after the 100 days OTL but the Salonika, Italian and Palestine fronts hold on their August 1918 lines. A 1919 Allied offensive on all fronts crushes all the Central Powers in 4 months. Allies are across the Rhine in the west and have crushed in the Italian, Balkan and Salonika fronts easily against the barely motivated German Allies. Germany requests an armistice on any terms.

 

[BlondieBC]

• Sounds like Italy will have time to physically occupy much of the A-H. Italy will get her full territorial demands out of A-H territory here. I am thinking the full Adriatic coastline, but you need some one with better understanding of what Italy wants in a max win here to be sure.
• Russian Civil War is interesting. Given another half year of full USA mobilization and freed up forces from A-H collapsing, we might well see the Entente intervene in Russia a lot more. Might see a lot more Japanese action. I think you may have blended WW1 into the Russian Civil War. Lots of butterflies here, not my strength.
• France was running out of men, USA army will be getting huge compared to OTL with another training winter. I think the peace starts to look a lot more like Wilson demands.
• Kind of think Germany gets broken up.

 

[Catspoke]

• Sounds like Italy will have time to physically occupy much of the A-H. Italy will get her full territorial demands out of A-H territory here. I am thinking the full Adriatic coastline, but you need some one with better understanding of what Italy wants in a max win here to be sure.
• Russian Civil War is interesting. Given another half year of full USA mobilization and freed up forces from A-H collapsing, we might well see the Entente intervene in Russia a lot more. Might see a lot more Japanese action. I think you may have blended WW1 into the Russian Civil War. Lots of butterflies here, not my strength.
• France was running out of men, USA army will be getting huge compared to OTL with another training winter. I think the peace starts to look a lot more like Wilson demands.
• Kind of think Germany gets broken up.

In the scenario a) above, Germany would want to block the Brenner pass, occupy Salzburg (Danube Valley), portions of Bohemia (Skoda Works), Prague, Vienna, Budapest would just have large populations to feed, take troops to put in order, best to put that on the Allies

There are many factions about.

a) South Slavs (opposed to Italian interests, not concerned about Germany)
b) Italians (more concerned about Dalmatia and the South Slavs than an offensive into Germany, has to round up and feed lots of Austrian prisoners)
c) British and French Divisions in Both Italy and From Salonika (more concerned about getting into German than others)
d) Romanians (looking to occupy Transylvania as OTL)
e) Militias of various nationalities in Prague, Krakow for example
f) Germans drifting back from the Russian and Ukrainian occupations.

Perhaps 10 or 15 British or French Divisions might be interested into pressing into Germany, these would have to set them selves up In Vienna or Prague, put these places in order, establish supply lines to some place and build up for an offensive. Assuming this all takes a while. I honestly think no offensive occurs from Austria into Germany, the Allies win grinding the western front in May 1919 before this area becomes a factor.

Russian Civil War: Germany almost forced to evacuate occupied Russian areas still , perhaps more slowly than OTL, Romania is back in, and the Allied fleet is in Constantinople, Poland is restive. Germany might want to hold onto Ukrainian grain areas, probably wouldn't be pressed by anybody too hard by anybody for a while, but needs forces at home. Allied interest in Russia will be about chasing the Germans out and perhaps a direct intervention in securing Polish boundaries. Its a long way to Moscow to overthrow the communists. Definitely butterflies.

Poland status is a bit vague, would they engage in open revolts/conflict against Germany, probably not right away but soon. Would definitely be attacking German forces still in Poland in May 1919, maybe even Posen.

 

[History Learner]

a) OTL through November 1st 1918. The Germans don't try a last naval sortie and continue fighting to secure better terms than the Allies are willing to give. The manage to scrape together a force to block the Brenner pass after the Austrian surrender. The Allies stop their offensive over the winter on the German frontier to build up strength, and to wait for better weather and on the Italian and Balkan fronts the Allies have to gather POWs, feed the local populations, build up infrastructure to attack through Germany, this takes all winter. A May 1919 offensive crushes Germany and the Allies are across the Rhine in 3 months taking Frankfurt and Karlshrue before the German request an armistice on any terms.

b) The German 1918 offensive goes a littler better than OTL and the Allied have to continue to withdraw forces from Italy, Salonika and Palestine to make up for it. The result is the Allies are at the same point they were after the 100 days OTL but the Salonika, Italian and Palestine fronts hold on their August 1918 lines. A 1919 Allied offensive on all fronts crushes all the Central Powers in 4 months. Allies are across the Rhine in the west and have crushed in the Italian, Balkan and Salonika fronts easily against the barely motivated German Allies. Germany requests an armistice on any terms.

If the Germans have done sufficiently well to force the Entente to abandon other fronts, they've won the war. Outside of that, you're making some confusing assumptions. The German and Austro-Hungarian decision to begin seeking terms occurred as a result of those named fronts collapsing. If they have not and they are successfully holding, they're not going to seek terms as you state but that invalidates other things; the Austro-Hungarian Army will hold the Brenner Pass, the Germans don't need to and the German allies won't lack for motivation if they're holding. Bulgaria sought peace because Salonika collapsed.

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Casualties go up astronomically, especially if you get urban fighting. Civilian famine in Germany and Austria-Hungary becomes even worse, probably only partially mitigated by the Brest-Litovsk settlement (well, it will suck for those territories since all their food will be exiting the country). The War was beyond terrible and the weapons under development for 1919 would have been even more murderous. Just imagine if gas shows up in urban warzones...

You get no stab in the back with this, but you quite possibly also get a Communist Revolution in Germany by the time this goes down.

 

[Deleted member 96212]

1) It has always been though that a more complete Allied victory would avoid the "stab in the back" theory and the rise of Hitler.

It has been thought, yes, but I don't buy it. By the time the war was ending IOTL, you already had communists in the streets rioting, you had the Kaiser having fled the country, it was the general chaos that led to people taking the myth seriously had already been laid down. The only way a 1919 Allied Victory scenario prevents the rise of the Nazis is if the longer war actually, directly kills Hitler and/or his key associates, or if Germany is so brutalized by an extra year of warfare that it's impossible for the country to recover by the 1930's.

• Russian Civil War is interesting. Given another half year of full USA mobilization and freed up forces from A-H collapsing, we might well see the Entente intervene in Russia a lot more.

I think we'd come up with the opposite scenario, I think the Entente would avoid intervention in Russia having wasted a great deal of men and material subjugating Germany.

 

[BlondieBC]

I think we'd come up with the opposite scenario, I think the Entente would avoid intervention in Russia having wasted a great deal of men and material subjugating Germany.

Either ATL is plausible. It is what makes writing and reading them so much fun.

 

[Deleted member 96212]

Either ATL is plausible. It is what makes writing and reading them so much fun.

Well when people's definition of plausibility clashes, then it becomes not so fun.

If someone was to go and write a story about how a longer WWI resulted in further intervention in the Russian Civil War, I think they'd be well within their right to do so but I personally wouldn't consider it likely to happen.

 

[Catspoke]

If the Germans have done sufficiently well to force the Entente to abandon other fronts, they've won the war. Outside of that, you're making some confusing assumptions. The German and Austro-Hungarian decision to begin seeking terms occurred as a result of those named fronts collapsing. If they have not and they are successfully holding, they're not going to seek terms as you state but that invalidates other things; the Austro-Hungarian Army will hold the Brenner Pass, the Germans don't need to and the German allies won't lack for motivation if they're holding. Bulgaria sought peace because Salonika collapsed.

On Scenario A, the Austrians, Bulgarians and Turks have all surrendered as in OTL, but the Germans in early November rush to secure the Brenner pass before the Italians can get there, easily defendable and the only real easy access to advance into South Germany. OTL I thought I had read the Germans did this or intended too but the revolution happened. While there are other routes into south Germany they are along way around to supply sources. In this TL Germany is unwilling to accept Allied OTL dictated armistice terms and without revolution tries continuing the war to negotiate better terms or to negotiate final peace terms while still fighting.

On Scenario B, the though is the Allies have drawn down a division or two extra from Salonika and Palestine in March-May 1918 and maybe 3 or 4 from Italy to focus on the western front, meaning no Allied attacks occur there September-November 1914, meaning these countries are sill in the Central Powers although hardly in a good state (their OTL August 1918 dysfunctional state, but getting worse). The 100 days have happened but Germany is unwilling to ask for an armistice yet or is unwilling to accept Allied armistice terms or is negotiating final peace terms while still fighting.

 

[Catspoke]

The first issue to come up will be the Austrian Ukraine, from Wikipedia:

"Due to the intervention of Archduke Wilhelm of Austria, who adopted a Ukrainian identity and considered himself a Ukrainian patriot, in October 1918 two regiments of mostly Ukrainian troops were garrisoned in Lemberg (modern Lviv).[15] As the Austro-Hungarian government collapsed, on October 18, 1918, the Ukrainian National Council (Rada), consisting of Ukrainian members of the Austrian parliament and regional Galician and Bukovynan diets as well as leaders of Ukrainian political parties, was formed. The Council announced the intention to unite the West Ukrainian lands into a single state. As the Poles were taking their own steps to take over Lviv and Eastern Galicia, Captain Dmytro Vitovsky of the Sich Riflemen led the group of young Ukrainian officers in a decisive action and during the night of October 31 – November 1, the Ukrainian military units took control over Lviv. The West Ukrainian People's Republic was proclaimed on November 1, 1918 with Lviv as its capital.

The timing of proclamation of the Republic caught the Polish ethnic population and administration by surprise. The new Ukrainian Republic claimed sovereignty over Eastern Galicia, including the Carpathians up to the city of Nowy Sącz in the West, as well as Volhynia, Carpathian Ruthenia and Bukovina (the last two territories were claimed also by Hungary and Romania respectively.[16][17][18] Although the majority of the population of the Western-Ukrainian People's Republic were Ukrainians, many urban settlements had Polish majorities. In Lviv the Ukrainian residents enthusiastically supported the proclamation, the city's significant Jewish minority accepted or remained neutral towards the Ukrainian proclamation, while the city's Polish majority was shocked to find themselves in a proclaimed Ukrainian state.[18] Because the West Ukrainian People's Republic was not internationally recognized and Poland's boundaries had not yet been defined, the issue of ownership of the disputed territory was reduced to a question of military control.[19]"

In this time line Piłsudski is still going to be under house arrest and Poland under German occupation with a puppet government. So in this TL the Ukranians are going to do better because Poland won't be able to intervene as in OTL.

Smart Germany is going to figure out how to deal with all these Austrian successor states (which is really occupy a handful of strategic points, don't pick sides, don't occupy places with populations to feed, and avoid conflicts with any locals).