Oh my goodness, where to begin? This is, honestly, one of my top 10 favorite topics, so hopefully nobody minds any potentially really long posts from me here.
The American Revolution is one of the most important events in modern history, and a timeline where the Patriots fail to defeat the British and remain as a colony of the Empire has many effects. Often, discussions are mostly focused on America and Britain itself, but there would be so many butterflies attached to this that you have to wonder what would happen in the more obscure areas.
For me, I think of how there would most likely be no Australia and New Zealand, as those were founded after Britain had set out to explore and conquer new land to make up for the loss of America. Instead, they would be more like Papa New Guinea if anything, than what we know them as today. Also, Canada would not exist as a separate entity, but instead would exist as part of a combined colony as it did before (though Quebec is a trickier matter for obvious reasons).
I'll address Canada a little further down, but Australia + N.Z. would likely still be settled by Britain, yes-
maybe not as reliant on prisoner transporting as they were IOTL......
This also might mean that France would be in less debt, thus no revolts, no rise of Napoleon (and all the butterflies that brings), which (among many other things), means that Germany and Italy wouldn't exist so... yeah. But I can't quite say that for sure, just that it sounds feasible.
Any thoughts on this?
Well, while I could certainly see the rise of Napoleon being butterflied(
certainly as it happened IOTL), I don't think we can so easily dismiss the idea of an ATL *French Revolution happening anyway, mainly because of how just many serious problems the French state had by the late 18th Century-there are plausible scenarios in which the monarchy could reform enough to possibly avoid collapse altogether instead of merely delaying the inevitable, but it's really not as easy to do plausibly as some might think with that late of a POD.
Additionally, "Canada" wouldn't exist at all; like the 13 colonies, it wasn't a unified entity. "Canada" was several colonies with separate administration, only loosely fused in 1783 into "British North America" as a result of the American Revolution. It only became "Canada" in 1867.
The bold is certainly true.....but that doesn't necessarily preclude the existence of *Canada altogether, though. It probably wouldn't be a virtually exact copy of OTL's Canada, for sure, but a very similar country could very well develop, under the right circumstances.
Even after the American Revolution New Zealand didn't hold much importance for the British in totality, but they went for it wholesale, even fighting bloody wars for it (the Maori Land Wars are fascinating to learn about, if anybody cares to know more about NZ's colonial history), because they were simply afraid that the French would get it first. When the French landed settlers in Akaroa the British really ramped up efforts. It's likely the same thing would occur in this ATL, if push came to shove; India is still hugely important for the British after all, even with America still in the fold, and thus controlling the seas to India in every direction becomes a priority.
Australia's colonisation would likely still go ahead, too. Cook claimed Eastern Australia in 1770, before the American Revolution occurred, perhaps before it was even conceived of. British sailors were exploring these territories long before the American Revolution occurred (remember, Sir Francis Drake circumnavigated the world in the 16th Century). To say that Britain only sought out these lands because they lost a bunch of colonies in America is just false.
Yeah, probably so. But, I'd add, though, that there is always a possibility that a few of the other European powers might still be able to take advantage of
This got me thinking again about the strength of the butterfly effect on history. Is it so strong that an American defeat at Saratoga in September 1777 would change the weather enough to avert the death of Captain Cook at the hands of the Hawaiians in February 1779?
I think there could be some real debate about this, but when it comes to weather, I've always taken a mixed approach just because of how chaotic, as it were, meterological systems can be, in simplified terms.
How would post-ARW revolutions happen and what governments would they produce? Would the world still be dominated by monarchs or would another alternative arise sometime, somewhere? How would we think the concepts of Republic, Democracy, Parliament, "Presidency" (it could be called other thing!), and so on. I think this might be one of the biggest effects long term
A world more dominated by monarchies is very much possible, for sure, but it may not necessarily turn out that way, depending on what happens after the POD.
- Less funding and investment for EIC. Each year that goes by, the settler colonies grow massively, that will drain financial resouces from bailing out the EIC, and general interest.
That's definitely possible. Suppose it depends on what unfolds after the POD, though, and the EIC
could end up being stronger, if anything given the right circumstances.
- Also unprofitable African colonialism is likely to be ignored in Britain, though European powers might settle for that prestige.
Britain would probably attempt to make colonies in Africa, too, if for no other reason than to keep up with the other European powers. How successful that is
will depend on events after the original POD but it
is possible that more indigenous African polities could survive and stave off European colonization.....or, conversely, it happens earlier and the native societies lose even harder than they did IOTL.
- Weaker Global Abolitionism. Would Britain do anti-slavery patrols and interventions while retaining a slavocrat south? That could be deemed offensive to southerners.
Unfortunately, this is a very possible side-effect of a failed Revolution that a lot of allohistorical fiction writers do tend to overlook; slavery wouldn't necessarily last
much longer than it did in the U.S.A. in our universe, but with the South remaining British, it very well could have survived well past 1840 without that much trouble.
- Less New Worldism. If America, the premier developed colonial-based state, is still attached to it's European homeland, will it take up that identity of modernism? It replaced Nobles with Capital, Blood with Paper, Faith with State
First of all, what do you describe as "modernism"? It's just such a vague term it could apply to just about anything.....but in any case, though, I can't see how capitalism gets butterflied by a failed Revolution and it'd be pretty hard to keep the churches very strong without some serious doses of active authoritarianism-this could happen, but would more likely be a fusion between church and state, and not the church
above the state(the latter is possible, too, but rather hard to do with an 18th Century POD). And even the nobility might not necessarily hang around in British America as even before the Revolution they weren't
that prominent locally.
- Republicanism is less fashionable.
That might well be true.....if monarchism doesn't end up being discredited by the present day, which is possible, but far from guaranteed.
- Federalism is less prevalent.
This is possible, yes, and this might be especially true for smaller countries(think: Serbia, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Belgium, etc.), though at least some larger nations would still have it eventually, if only out of necessity.
- "Marines" wouldn't be worshipped. They would be a normal amphibious naval infantry branch.
Definitely true that the Marines have a pretty special place in the minds of many Americans as far as the military goes-so here, that might not be the case in a *British America.
Society would lack this "neutral" "modern" place. That attempts to appeal to everyone, rather than being own thing.
Possible that such ideals might be less widespread than OTL, but you wouldn't be able to eliminate such thinking entirely, either.
Ideas like the Republic or democracy would still be around even without the U.S independence.
And, as I pointed out above, would very likely become at least similar to OTL at some point-that's one bit of convergence you can't really plausibly avoid, at least not without some truly radical changes.
Because those lands are wanted by the colonists, the whole westward expansion, proclomation line fiasco.
And I'd add that the Proclamation Line seems to be kind of a strange thing for the British Empire to have done, considering their actual overall view of Native Americans-maybe if the French had won the Seven Years' War, it could have made more sense(simply because Britain probably wouldn't want to start another war with them so soon after losing).
It's not just traitors, do you think "honourable, upstanding" loyalists want convicts dump
No, they likely wouldn't have, I generally agree with you there.
No baseball or American Football.
Tea over coffee.
Spanish/Mexican American Southwest and California.
Eh, American football might well be butterflied, but baseball could still make it, given that a few precursor games did exist both in the Colonies and in Britain.
Before American Revolution, "republic" and "democracy" only applied to small states
Wait, do you mean in the sense that the only republics and democracies in existence prior to 1776 just happened to be in smaller countries, like Venice, Paoli's Corsica, etc., or do you mean that no large country could be described as a republic and/or a democracy even if it had those very systems in place? If the latter, then that would make no sense whatsoever.....though to be fair, if you meant the former, then at least then I suppose we could say that it would be understandable for the ordinary working or farming person in the West(up to a point, anyway) to be kinda confused to hear of a larger state being something other than a (non-democratic) monarchy.