Welcome to Tzargrad! Formerly Constantinople

[Moltke]

1878: Let's say Russian didn't stop at San Stefano and continued on to Constantinople with the objective of taking the city. That's my POD in that the Russian keep moving forward in face of British pressure and even warships in the straights. From there it's up to you ... offer likely scenarios and repercussions for Victorian Europe.

Were the Russian capable of taking the city?
What terms could the Czar have forced on the Turks by taking the city?
Where the British bluffing with their warships? Would the British have gone to a second Crimean War over it?
What would be the French position? Likewise German and A-H?
What would a Russian victory/defeat have done to the alliance with Germany and future alliance with France?
....

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

Well, if memory serves the Russians were doing quite well until they got held up outside Constantinople for several (I think 3 or 4) months. The hold-up was long enough that the British and French decided that the Russians might be saving the Bulgarians, but that didn't justify the Russians taking the straits.

If the Russians blow through that strong-hold and take the City, then I don't think the British would be able to make them give it back. Mainly because the British wouldn't be willing to fight a war with the Russians over Constantinople, and in fact with Constantinople having fallen, the Europeans may decide that now is the time to sit down and cut up the Ottoman Empire.

So the conference that created the Treaty of San Stefano might get a little more involved . . .

 

[Moltke]

Well, if memory serves the Russians were doing quite well until they got held up outside Constantinople for several (I think 3 or 4) months. The hold-up was long enough that the British and French decided that the Russians might be saving the Bulgarians, but that didn't justify the Russians taking the straits.

Agreed. Were the Russians strong enough to actually do such a thing though? I have a hard time believing that the British/French pressure was the deciding factors involved more than just a tired Russian military. But if the military resources were actually capable could they have eventually taken the city if they called the UK bluff.

If the Russians blow through that strong-hold and take the City, then I don't think the British would be able to make them give it back. Mainly because the British wouldn't be willing to fight a war with the Russians over Constantinople, and in fact with Constantinople having fallen, the Europeans may decide that now is the time to sit down and cut up the Ottoman Empire.

Again, agreed. Once taken, I don't think anything besides St. Petersburg being occupied would make them give the city back. As for cutting up the OE ... that would bring a lot of confusion and greedy interests to a table that OTL simply decided more or less the size of Bulgaria. This table/conference would have a lot more heated discussions and could create much greater changes to the Europe leading up to the pre-1914 alliances. Which is what I was asking about really, more so than the Russo-Turkish war really. Just what would Constantinople in Russian hands change in late 19th century European diplomacy/foreign policy?

 

[Qantrix]

Probably create additional hostility between Britain (and maybe France) and Russia. Maybe additional Russian influence in the southern Balkans, with Greece and Serbia being their puppets/allies, creating a pretty even tripolar Europe. Russia and their orthodox allies versus Germany and A-H versus Britain and France, with Italy being the wildcard.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

Probably create additional hostility between Britain (and maybe France) and Russia. Maybe additional Russian influence in the southern Balkans, with Greece and Serbia being their puppets/allies, creating a pretty even tripolar Europe. Russia and their orthodox allies versus Germany and A-H versus Britain and France, with Italy being the wildcard.

The Russian conquest of Constantinople also probably means that Russia gets its "Big Bulgaria" which will really mess with Balkans politics. I agree that the Russians might end up leading the "Slav Bloc" or something, that is pretty explicitly aimed at the Austro-Hungarian Empire since they're ruling the last non-Slav ruled Slav territories.

The French probably stay with the Russians. The Franco-Russian alliance was so natural because the two countries didn't overlap in any strategic way (by this I mean neither had to compromise colonial/imperial ambitions for the good of the alliance) and both feared/hated Germany.

However. The fall of Constantinople happens before the Re-insurance Treaty between Germany and Russia is allowed to end. This could mean the Germans take another look at Russia, but I don't really think it will change Wilhelm II's mind, so . . .

Actually, the Re-insurance treaty probably ends anyway, but now with the Russians in this kind of position (taking Constantinople was a long-held Russian goal, and keeping that from happening was an almost as long-held British goal) the British might start thinking that Germany was the ticket to counter a forwardly aggressive Russian Empire.

Furthermore, the British are a mere three years away from forcefully seizing Egypt. So if the "Cut OE up" Conference occurs, then it could get ugly between the French and British over whom will have Egypt in their sphere of influence. This will be Bismarck's last act as Chancellor, and I think that he would be plotting and balancing like the political genius he was.

 

[Michael B]

Furthermore, the British are a mere three years away from forcefully seizing Egypt. So if the "Cut OE up" Conference occurs, then it could get ugly between the French and British over whom will have Egypt in their sphere of influence. This will be Bismarck's last act as Chancellor, and I think that he would be plotting and balancing like the political genius he was.

The British are still the most likely to get Egypt; after all it was about this time that the French backed down over claims on the Sudan. As a consolation prize they might get the Levant and the Greeks get Smyrna and Thrace.

 

[Midgard]

I am wondering if it would be possible for the powers to agree with the establishment of a "Byzantine Empire" of sorts, with one of the younger Romanovs on the throne, but with quite a few stipulations on its foreign affairs. This way, Russia gets a friendly state on the Bosphorus, but is not directly in control of the Straits, and seems just a tad less threatening. The British might be more willing to put up with this "Byzantium" if it is not directly Russian-controlled, while the French may more or less let the Russians a free hand in exchange for some concessions regarding the division of the Ottomans.

Bulgaria may end up being a bit smaller down the line though, thanks to much land going to the new "Byzantine" state. Greece, however, will be... interesting. I doubt Greece will be willing to give up its independence or territory, plus it would have its own ambitions on Constantinople. The British, the French, and the Germans are very unlikely to sacrifice it, in fact, pro-British Greece is a nice counter to the "Byzantium" that Russia may have to accept. I think this Greece may end up getting a bit more territory from the carving of the Ottomans, if only to keep "Byzantium" from being too strong, or to contain Russian control of the Straits.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

1878: Let's say Russian didn't stop at San Stefano and continued on to Constantinople with the objective of taking the city. That's my POD in that the Russian keep moving forward in face of British pressure and even warships in the straights. From there it's up to you ... offer likely scenarios and repercussions for Victorian Europe.

Were the Russian capable of taking the city?
What terms could the Czar have forced on the Turks by taking the city?
Where the British bluffing with their warships? Would the British have gone to a second Crimean War over it?
What would be the French position? Likewise German and A-H?
What would a Russian victory/defeat have done to the alliance with Germany and future alliance with France?
....

The British were absolutely not bluffing, and I don't think it's remotely possible for the Russians to take the city. The Russians are militarily exhausted and have no ability to take on the British at Istanbul, especially with the latter in cooperation with the Ottomans.

If they had thought it possible, wouldn't they have done it?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I am wondering if it would be possible for the powers to agree with the establishment of a "Byzantine Empire" of sorts, with one of the younger Romanovs on the throne, but with quite a few stipulations on its foreign affairs. This way, Russia gets a friendly state on the Bosphorus, but is not directly in control of the Straits, and seems just a tad less threatening. The British might be more willing to put up with this "Byzantium" if it is not directly Russian-controlled, while the French may more or less let the Russians a free hand in exchange for some concessions regarding the division of the Ottomans.

Bulgaria may end up being a bit smaller down the line though, thanks to much land going to the new "Byzantine" state. Greece, however, will be... interesting. I doubt Greece will be willing to give up its independence or territory, plus it would have its own ambitions on Constantinople. The British, the French, and the Germans are very unlikely to sacrifice it, in fact, pro-British Greece is a nice counter to the "Byzantium" that Russia may have to accept. I think this Greece may end up getting a bit more territory from the carving of the Ottomans, if only to keep "Byzantium" from being too strong, or to contain Russian control of the Straits.

I don't think this is remotely palatable to the Powers for no other reason than that it would probably cause a splintering of the empire and a general European war. There is no reason for anyone to accept Russian control over the Straits. If the war had happened for some reason about 20 years later, this would be totally different, as fear of Germany would be animating both powers and the British would have switched to reliance over control of Egypt to protect routes to the East.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The Russian conquest of Constantinople also probably means that Russia gets its "Big Bulgaria" which will really mess with Balkans politics. I agree that the Russians might end up leading the "Slav Bloc" or something, that is pretty explicitly aimed at the Austro-Hungarian Empire since they're ruling the last non-Slav ruled Slav territories.

The French probably stay with the Russians. The Franco-Russian alliance was so natural because the two countries didn't overlap in any strategic way (by this I mean neither had to compromise colonial/imperial ambitions for the good of the alliance) and both feared/hated Germany.

However. The fall of Constantinople happens before the Re-insurance Treaty between Germany and Russia is allowed to end. This could mean the Germans take another look at Russia, but I don't really think it will change Wilhelm II's mind, so . . .

Actually, the Re-insurance treaty probably ends anyway, but now with the Russians in this kind of position (taking Constantinople was a long-held Russian goal, and keeping that from happening was an almost as long-held British goal) the British might start thinking that Germany was the ticket to counter a forwardly aggressive Russian Empire.

Furthermore, the British are a mere three years away from forcefully seizing Egypt. So if the "Cut OE up" Conference occurs, then it could get ugly between the French and British over whom will have Egypt in their sphere of influence. This will be Bismarck's last act as Chancellor, and I think that he would be plotting and balancing like the political genius he was.

There is no Franco-Russian alliance - that is far in the future. In this period they are mutually hostile, and it was the smashing of France that made the Russian attack on the Ottomans possible in the first place.

The British had absolutely no interest in Egypt or anything else - their occupation of it was manipulated by imperial interests in response to a specific situation and it was always intended to be temporary. If it weren't for the Mahdists, they would likely have withdrawn shortly after invading.

This is not a computer game - the personalities involved were well aware of the consequences of their actions, and equally aware that these could be events spinning wildly out of control. There was a very strong impetus for maintaining the status quo or allowing things to change very slowly.

Even the Russian plan was to leave Istanbul with the Ottomans and maintenance of the empire as an important defensive buffer - they had no dream of dismembering it.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Actually the Russians were held up at Plevna, which is in northern Bulgaria. By the time they got to the outskirts of Istanbul it was winter and they were totally exhausted, and in any case the British had made up their minds to prevent the Russians from taking the city long before the Russian army got there - they had already accepted the British ultimatum to stay out.

Well, if memory serves the Russians were doing quite well until they got held up outside Constantinople for several (I think 3 or 4) months. The hold-up was long enough that the British and French decided that the Russians might be saving the Bulgarians, but that didn't justify the Russians taking the straits.

If the Russians blow through that strong-hold and take the City, then I don't think the British would be able to make them give it back. Mainly because the British wouldn't be willing to fight a war with the Russians over Constantinople, and in fact with Constantinople having fallen, the Europeans may decide that now is the time to sit down and cut up the Ottoman Empire.

So the conference that created the Treaty of San Stefano might get a little more involved . . .

 

[Keenir]

if Russia takes Constantinople, this might be an impetus for the Ottomans to do what their Arab soldiers have been hoping for: a dual-monarchy like Austria...have a second capital somewhere that's better able to be defended.

Probably create additional hostility between Britain (and maybe France) and Russia. Maybe additional Russian influence in the southern Balkans, with Greece and Serbia being their puppets/allies,

Greece will probably back even further into the British camp or might support an Ottoman reconquest (re-reconquest?) of Constantinople.

after all, Greece had finally convinced the Ottomans to let them go -- exactly why would Greece want to be taking orders from a bunch of Slavic barbarians from the frozen north?
(the Greeks would probably point out "we were Rome long before you got the idea")

The French probably stay with the Russians. The Franco-Russian alliance was so natural because the two countries didn't overlap in any strategic way

except that would France allow Russia both the Second Rome and a clear line straight to the Holy Land? best to grab it before Russia does.

 

[Michael B]

except that would France allow Russia both the Second Rome and a clear line straight to the Holy Land? best to grab it before Russia does.

Would the British allow the French to do that? Whilst I can't see any obvious British at stake, all it would require is influential voices in the Commons and Lords mention the Third Crusade, Philip and Richard. This might not be particularly relevant to the situation, but it would make great newspaper headlines!

The British government could then to decide either to block the French move or pile in themselves. If they did the latter they could take control of Palestine leaving the French the Levant. This move though is not going to help the Zionism movement because it centred on Eastern Europe and I doubt the British would be too happy about leaving a load of "German" colonists in.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

Russian influence in Balkan Peninsula will expand more. Russians would execute all Turks in Constantinople. Maybe additional Russian influence in the southern Balkans, with Greece and Serbia being their puppets/allies, creating a pretty even tripolar Europe. Russia and their orthodox allies versus Germany and A-H versus Britain and France, with Italy being the wildcard.