Warcraft: Azeroth population estimation

[koa_dan]

Blizzard has always kept things related to population vague so there are already tons of topics out there debating about the realistic racial numbers. I don't mean to argue much since I only plan to estimate some numbers for my fan-fiction writing later. Better share it here as well just in case someone is interested. As the in-game technology level is somewhat similar to that of Europe during the early modern period, I decided that Azeroth population should be the same, around 100 million inhabitants during the 16th century. These are estimated numbers before the War against the Lich King.

(Not my map, I found it on Google, putting it here for illustration purpose only)​

ALLIANCE:

- Human:

• Lordaeron:
  • Before the Scourging of Lordaeron: 18,000,000 (Formerly the most powerful human kingdom, inspired by the Holy Roman Empire)
  • After the Scourging of Lordaeron:
    • Scarlet Crusade: 2,150,000 (The most fanatical faction of Lordaeron remnants. Inspired by the Archduchy of Austria, the seat of the Habsburgs who constantly waged wars to defend their Catholic faith)
    • Argent Dawn: 600,000 (A more religiously tolerant faction that is willing to cooperate with other races. Inspired by Brandenburg-Prussia, this number does not include their non-human members)
• Stormwind:
  • Before the Fall of Stormwind Keep: 16,250,000 (Currently the strongest human kingdom, inspired by France. Coincidentally, Paris at this time period had a population of 250,000, quite similar to that of Stormwind City)
  • After the Fall of Stormwind Keep: 13,250,000 (The orc massacre reduced the population by 3 million, the number of casualties of the French wars of religion)
  • After the Scourging of Lordaeron: 20,000,000 (Absorbing the Stormwind loyalist forces. This is French population at the end of the 16th century)
• Dalaran: 175,000 (A city state run by a council, inspired by the city of Venice)
• Gilneas: 2,100,000 (The kingdom is said to be inspired by Victorian-era England, so England)
  
• Kul Tiras: 3,000,000 (An island nation with a great navy, initially I had planned to use England but Kul Tiras is supposed to be more militarily powerful than Gilneas lore-wise, so in the end I chose Portugal)
• Alterac: 280,000 (A mountainous, militaristic nation that used to switch side in the Second War, inspired by the Duchy of Savoy)
• Stromgarde: 1,920,000 (A highland nation surrounded by mountains while being constantly contested between the Alliance and the Horde, inspired by Hungary which used to be the battleground between the Habsburgs and the Turks)
• Theramore: 6,000 (A small yet greatly fortified human settlement, located at a strategic location but suffered from a harsh environment. Inspired by the Rock of Gibraltar)

- Dwarf: the Council of Three Hammers reminds me of the union between Poland and Lithuania

• Ironforge: 3,900,000 (The strongest dwarven faction, inspired by Poland. The Polish capital at this time - Krakow had about 30,000 people, nearly the same as Ironforge City's 33,000, provided by Blizzard)
• Wildhammer: 2,700,000 (Can't say much about them, I just used the number of Ruthenians during this period)
• Dark Iron: 900,000 (The most politically cunning dwarven faction, inspired by Lithuania. The Lithuanian nobles were the minority yet managed to rule over the more numerous Ruthenians, so much scheming yeah)

- Night elf: 2,390,000 (This is the total population of the Kalmar Union and Scotland, regions in which fairy tales regarding elves were popular)

- Worgen: 500,000 (Inspired by Wallachia. Well I can't find the place of origin for werewolf legends so I used their nemesis's instead. At least it's... related somehow)

- Gnome: 70,000 (A race that treasures knowledge, much less populous than the dwarves, inspired by the city of Florence, one of the hotbed of the Renaissance)

- Draenei: 12,000 (A religious faction with a very limited number, inspired by Hospitaller Malta)


HORDE:

- Orc:

• Before the internment: 2,100,000 (Elite tribal warriors with a much smaller population compared to humans, inspired by the Mongols)
• After the internment: 400,000 (The actual number of Mongol warriors during the same period. Also, the Mongol ancient capital Karakorum had a population of 10,000 during the 13th century. Without being sacked by the Ming forces, I believe it would have reached 17-23,000 three centuries later. Again, this number is quite close to the initial number provided by Blizzard for Orgrimmar)

- Forsaken:

• Before the Lich King went into his slumber: 450,000 (A detached force from a larger horde, inspired by the Nogai Horde)
• After the Lich King awakened: 1,000,000 (The longest surviving successor state of the former horde, inspired by the Kazakh Khanate)

- Troll: 1,224,000 worldwide (Their architecture looks Khmer-like so I chose Cambodia for the whole population)

• Zandalar: 670,000 (Believed to be the strongest thalassocracy, surpassing even Kul Tiras in term of naval technology but having a smaller population, inspired by the Bruneian Empire. The capital of Brunei during this time had a population of 25-36,000, very similar to the in-game one)
• Amani: 319,000 (Not much logic here, just a feeling, inspired by Laos)
• Darkspear: 20,000 (An elite tribe with a functional population, inspired by Samudera Pasai)
  
• Gurubashi: 80,000 (A former great empire which had splintered into many smaller tribes, inspired by the Aceh Sultanate. Part of the inspiration is due to Pasai being later annexed by Aceh. A bit reversal but there's a connection)
• Drakkari: 38,700 (Not much logic here either, inspired by Iceland)

- Tauren: 90,000 (A peace-loving and spiritual race whose population keeps being reduced by constant warfare with the Centaurs, inspired by the Kingdom of Derge)

- Blood elf: 250,000 (A race whose 90% of the population was massacred by the Scourge, inspired by Dzungaria. 250,000 is the number of Dzungars who migrated to Russia in the early 1600s, avoiding the later bloodshed caused by the Qing, hence the survivors)

- Goblin: 16,000,000 (A profit-minded race whose birth rate is very high, inspired by the Bengal Sultanate which was described by the Europeans to be the richest country to trade with)

• Bilgewater Cartel: 135,000 (The most powerful goblin cartel prior to the Cataclysm, later building a massive harbor city strategically located in Azshara, inspired by the Malacca Sultanate)
• Steamwheedle Cartel: 82,000 (Another powerful cartel with a series of outposts worldwide, maintaining neutrality between the Alliance and the Horde, inspired by the Swahili city states. There were 8 city states in total, the largest being Kilwa with the peak population of 12,000, the other seven had approximately 10,000 each)
• Venture Company: 40,000 (A goblin cartel infamous for its shady activities, inspired by Portuguese Goa. What else can be more shady than slave trading?)

- Nightborne: 745,000 (A remnant faction of the Highborne that has been living in isolation for the past 10,000 years, inspired by the Swiss)


NEUTRAL:

- Centaur: 210,000 (An aggressive race that tends to raid the Taurens, inspired by the Four Oirat. The number is my guess, using the phrase "the 40 Mongol tumens and the 4 Oirat tumens")

- Drogbar: 196,000 (A subterranean civilization that is friendly to the Taurens. Inspired by Jordan's Petra Ancient City)

- Quilboar: 250,000 (This race worships boars. Inspired by Ireland whose sacred animal is also the wild boar )

- Gnoll: 35,000 (A vicious race that tends to raid human kingdoms, inspired by the Pirate Coast. I would prefer the Barbary population here but couldn't find it)

- Furbolg: 100,000 (This is the population of Moscow at the beginning of the 16th century. Bear and Moscow are quite related, I think?)

- Polar furbolg: 7,500 (This is the estimated Sami population of Sweden during the 16th century)

- Vrykul: 2,500 (A Viking-inspired race, so I used the peak Norse population of Greenland before their disappearance)

- Tuskarr: 5,700 (A tribal race whose culture is largely influenced by whaling activities, inspired by the Nivkh people. I would prefer the Inuit number here though)

- Pandaren:

• Pandaria: 9,800,000 (They are clearly inspired by Chinese culture but Ming China is too populous so I used the Korean number instead)
• Wandering Isle: 85,000 (Inspired by the maritime city of Genoa, not much logic here)

- Mogu: 3,661,000 (A civilization relying on slavery, inspired by the Mamluk Sultanate, excluding Syria)

- Hozen: 100,000 (Inspired by Brazil as she is one of the countries with the largest population of monkeys)

- Mantid: 1,500,000 (An extremely ruthless race that is feared by both the Mogus and the Pandarens. Inspired by the Manchu-led Later Jin that massacred a lot of Han Chinese)

- Qiraji: 6,000,000 (This race also uses pyramid architecture so the Aztec can relate)

- Nerubian:

• Before the War of the Spider: 800,000 (A race that is closely related to the qiraji. Inspired by the Mayan civilization. This is the number of Yucatan Mayan population before the Spanish conquest)
• After the War of the Spider: 140,000 (Yucatan Mayan population after the Spanish conquest)

- Tol'vir: 160,000 (A civilization clearly inspired by Ancient Egypt. I used the Coptic population for them here)

- Naga: 18,000,000 (The nagas have had 10,000 years to build up their population, so even if they have long lives, there will still be many of them. Inspired by the Vijayanagara Empire whose main religion was Hinduism. The nagas are Hindu mythical beings after all)

- Scourge:

• Before the Lich King went into his slumber: 4,000,000 (Inspired by the Golden Horde, the predecessor to both the Nogai Horde and the Kazakh Khanate, sometimes referred to as the Scourge of God during the reign of Genghis Khan)
• After the Lich King awakened: 7,000,000 (Inspired by the Grand Duchy of Muscovy)
• At the height of the War against the Lich King: 11,000,000 (Inspired by the Ottoman Empire)

P/S: There are still some minor races that I didn't work on (for example murlocs) because I think their numbers would be probably either too small or impossible to measure.

 

[koa_dan]

Updates on the numbers of the Drogbar, Quilboar, Mantid, Qiraji, Nerubian and Tol'vir. Also fixed the numbers of the Pandaren and Mogu a bit.

 

[Willmatron]

I say the Naga have the advantage of hiding their population under the ocean which provides a lot larger territory.

 

[NotedCoyote]

Interesting choice to base the numbers off real-world civilizations. The main issue I can see is with Stormwind, given that the entire kingdom was conquered and occupied by the orcs less than 30 years before the start of WoW, at a time when the orcs would have been unlikely to leave millions of survivors... Of course, the writers for the canon have never paid particularly close attention to details like that either.

 

[koa_dan]

I say the Naga have the advantage of hiding their population under the ocean which provides a lot larger territory.

There are opinions that the Naga overwhelm all other races' total combined population. I believe they are numerous but not to that level. I have been thinking to use the Hindu population in India during the 16th century instead of the Inca. After all, the naga are beings from Hinduism.

Interesting choice to base the numbers off real-world civilizations. The main issue I can see is with Stormwind, given that the entire kingdom was conquered and occupied by the orcs less than 30 years before the start of WoW, at a time when the orcs would have been unlikely to leave millions of survivors... Of course, the writers for the canon have never paid particularly close attention to details like that either.

Yeah that's also my dilemma. Maybe I should use that 16 million number for the pre-invasion Stormwind population, then detaching 3 million (casualties of the French wars of religion) to have the post-invasion population.

The orcs also prove to be somewhat unrealistic. I'm thinking that I should also use that 2 million number for the pre-invasion population. After the internment, they should have had about only 400,000 people left (the actual number of Mongol warriors at this period of time). I just wonder whether this number is functional enough for them to remain a menacing force to the Alliance.

 

[koa_dan]

Fixed the numbers of the Stormwindians, orcs, goblins and nagas. I think they make more sense now.

 

[Lord Malikai]

This is an interesting approach, and I think you provide believable numbers for the Horde and Neutral races. Regarding the human kingdoms I'd like to point you to the Warcraft II game manual. It's an earlier version of the lore, which gives some anachronisms like referring to the "Kingdom of Stormwind" as the "Kingdom of Azeroth," but it's still generally valid canon.

Based on the above source, I personally (though feel free to disagree), would seriously reduce the population of Lordaeron. As far as I know, there's nothing in canon that states it was the most militarily powerful. Lordaeron's position of dominance seems to come from diplomatic influence and, in the Second War, hosting the refugee population of Stormwind. Likewise Gilneas should also be revised upward as it is explicitly called "one of the strongest human nations," and this strength was sufficient, along with the Greymane Wall, to stand off the old Horde, Burning Legion and modern Horde for a generation. I would especially revise it compared to Kul Tiras, which likewise survived those enemies, but did so based on naval superiority not boots on the ground.

Finally, I would like to suggest that the pre-internment population of the orcs be seriously increased or the Second War human population be seriously decreased. The old Horde lost the Second War seemingly only because Gul'dan unilaterally withdrew the Twilight's Hammer and Stormreaver clans from the siege of Lordaeron. This forced a brief civil war, which obviously depleted the Horde's momentum and strength considerably. In addition the old Horde really only committed three clans to the main fight against the humans anyway (the aforementioned Twilight's Hammer and Stormreaver Clans along with the Blackrock Clan). The Black Tooth Grin Clan sat out the war until the assault on the Dark Portal. The Bleeding Hollow Clan was occupied principally against the dwarves. Several clans weren't committed at all like the Dragonmaw Clan (occupied with the capture of Alexstrasza) and the Shadowmoon Clan (chilling on Draenor with Ner'zhul). Doing some back of the envelop math: out of the 2 million orcs you listed, about 1 million are male. Then assume about half of the males are military age, so that's 500,000 total combatants. Then only three clans out of about a dozen saw serious fighting in push north from Khaz Modan to the outskirts of Lordaeron. All told that would suggest maybe 100,000 - 200,000 fighting orcs were sufficient to almost defeat the combined armies of humanity and occupy a population of 25 million.

To resolve this discrepancy, I'd suggest you treat the human kingdoms of the north combined as having about the population of the Holy Roman Empire and then adjust each kingdom by feel - perhaps something like:

Second War Alliance Populations:

• Stormwind Refugees: 1,000,000 - they were a significant factor in the war, but I'd hesitate to even put the number this high.
• Lordaeron: 6,000,00 - combined with the Stormwind refugees they'd be about even with Gilneas and a plausible rock to build the Alliance on
• Stromgarde: 2,000,000 - seems fine, I changed it to a round number
• Kul Tiras: 3,000,000 - same as Stromgarde
• Gilneas: 7,000,000 - as I said above, Gilneas was a powerful nation
• Dalaran: 175,000 - this number seems fine
• Alterac: 280,000 - same as Dalaran
  
• Quel'thalas: 2,500,000 - working backwards from your 250,000 Blood Elves gives a number that feels right to me
• Ironforge Dwarves: 1,500,000 - I cut this number significantly because only one orc clan was necessary to neutralize Ironforge during the war
• Wildhammer Dwarves: 500,000 - Since Gryphon Riders were the only Wildhammer contribution to the war effort, I assume the paucity of Gryphon riders implies a low Wildhammer population.
• Gnomes: ??? - I have no idea how to estimate the wartime gnomish population

• I'd also revise the pre-First War Stormwind population down to around 10,000,000, but that's just personal preference

Second War Horde Populations:
(Note: this includes a great number of noncombatants, since orc women generally aren't depicted fighting anywhere near as much as the men. Also clans have elderly and children to take care of. The effective combat strength of a clan is probably a quarter of the total)

• Blackrock Clan: 3,000,000 - the largest clan on Azeroth, has to be big enough to smash the next two listed clans combined
• Stormreaver Clan: 500,000 - a "small but powerful clan"
• Twilight's Hammer Clan: 1,000,000 - their remnants form a large organization postwar, so I assume this clan is as least "average" sized
• Black Tooth Grin Clan: 1,000,000 - led by the sons of the previous warchief and large enough to command the loyalty of another clan (the Dragonmaw Clan) I assumed they are also at least "average"
• Bleeding Hollow Clan: 2,000,000 - "One of the largest... before passing into Azeroth." per the Warcraft 2 manual
• Dragonmaw Clan: 500,000 - dragons are equivalent to gryphon riders in Warcraft 2, so I'm blithely assuming the Dragonmaw Clan is the same size as the Wildhammer Dwarves
• Burning Blade: 100,000 - not an organized clan so comparatively small as it has no noncombatants
• Shadowmoon Clan: 2,500,000 - the largest clan left behind on Draenor
• Warsong Clan: 1,000,000 - another significant clan after the Second War, they have to be large enough to provide the bulk of Thrall's new Horde in a generation
• Shattered Hand Clan: 1,000,000 - guesstimated around the same size as the Warsong Clan, honestly who knows
• Frostwolf Clan: 300,000 - once powerful, now exiled, I tried to balance those two factors

• Total Orc Population: 14,000,000 - I know my clan numbers don't add up to the total, I'm assuming there are other clans I missed, or orcs not involved directly in the Second War or its aftermath like the non-Frostwolf Mag'har.

• Ogres: 200,000 - there weren't too many and at least some were formally in Orcish clans so, really, who knows?
• Death Knights: 5,000 - technically not orcs anymore, so I'll list them here, but very few in number
• Amani Trolls: 500,000 - your number looks right post-war, I assume the Amani turned out for the Horde en masse and took massive casualties in the process

I'd then revise the post-war orcish population upward somewhat, but assume a great many orcs, perhaps more than half died in the retreat to the Dark Portal and the shattering of Draenor, especially the noncombatants.



TLDR: I really liked early Warcraft e.g Warcraft 1 and 2. I think your overall analysis is great, but could be tweaked based on the wars depicted in those games. Feel free to use my suggestions or not.

 

[koa_dan]

TLDR: I really liked early Warcraft e.g Warcraft 1 and 2. I think your overall analysis is great, but could be tweaked based on the wars depicted in those games. Feel free to use my suggestions or not.

It's definitely very interesting and helpful. I will see what I can make out of those suggestions of yours. Thank you a lot!

 

[Historyman 14]

Interesting choice to base the numbers off real-world civilizations. The main issue I can see is with Stormwind, given that the entire kingdom was conquered and occupied by the orcs less than 30 years before the start of WoW, at a time when the orcs would have been unlikely to leave millions of survivors... Of course, the writers for the canon have never paid particularly close attention to details like that either.

I think one way of explaining is a great deal of living survivors of the Northen Kingdoms who didn't flee West with Jaina, or holdouts fled south, to Stomwind, thus giving it the manpower to quickly develop its infrastructure, military, and government.

This is an interesting approach, and I think you provide believable numbers for the Horde and Neutral races. Regarding the human kingdoms I'd like to point you to the Warcraft II game manual. It's an earlier version of the lore, which gives some anachronisms like referring to the "Kingdom of Stormwind" as the "Kingdom of Azeroth," but it's still generally valid canon.

Based on the above source, I personally (though feel free to disagree), would seriously reduce the population of Lordaeron. As far as I know, there's nothing in canon that states it was the most militarily powerful. Lordaeron's position of dominance seems to come from diplomatic influence and, in the Second War, hosting the refugee population of Stormwind. Likewise Gilneas should also be revised upward as it is explicitly called "one of the strongest human nations," and this strength was sufficient, along with the Greymane Wall, to stand off the old Horde, Burning Legion and modern Horde for a generation. I would especially revise it compared to Kul Tiras, which likewise survived those enemies, but did so based on naval superiority not boots on the ground.

Finally, I would like to suggest that the pre-internment population of the orcs be seriously increased or the Second War human population be seriously decreased. The old Horde lost the Second War seemingly only because Gul'dan unilaterally withdrew the Twilight's Hammer and Stormreaver clans from the siege of Lordaeron. This forced a brief civil war, which obviously depleted the Horde's momentum and strength considerably. In addition the old Horde really only committed three clans to the main fight against the humans anyway (the aforementioned Twilight's Hammer and Stormreaver Clans along with the Blackrock Clan). The Black Tooth Grin Clan sat out the war until the assault on the Dark Portal. The Bleeding Hollow Clan was occupied principally against the dwarves. Several clans weren't committed at all like the Dragonmaw Clan (occupied with the capture of Alexstrasza) and the Shadowmoon Clan (chilling on Draenor with Ner'zhul). Doing some back of the envelop math: out of the 2 million orcs you listed, about 1 million are male. Then assume about half of the males are military age, so that's 500,000 total combatants. Then only three clans out of about a dozen saw serious fighting in push north from Khaz Modan to the outskirts of Lordaeron. All told that would suggest maybe 100,000 - 200,000 fighting orcs were sufficient to almost defeat the combined armies of humanity and occupy a population of 25 million.



TLDR: I really liked early Warcraft e.g Warcraft 1 and 2. I think your overall analysis is great, but could be tweaked based on the wars depicted in those games. Feel free to use my suggestions or not.

All of this is really good.

With why the Horde lost the Second War: Orgrim Doomhammer wasn't a great military . The man never ever seemed to secure anything, just moving from one front to the other with no strict plan while throwing away soldiers on distraction strategies. The campaign in Khaz Modan was still highly costly to the Horde, and he still wasted time laying siege to Ironforge.

I myself see his alliance with the Amani a poor choice given he yet again wasted men and time and resources on Quel'Thalas, and his focus on the Capital City was the end result of tunnel vision. (A friend of my will say he don't consider the Alliance with the Amani a bad idea, because his goal was always taking the world, he'd have attacked Quel'Thalas with or without them, the real issue is 'how' he conducted the war in his eyes, rather than who he conducted it against.)

None of this was helped by him giving Gul'Dan way too much leeway and we saw the result of that as well.

Orgirm worked better with limited resources and a smaller mission. When given all the power, all the resources and a big goal he massively overextends, doesn't solidify his gains and tend to be guided more by personal opinion than what is good military strategy and it ultimately cost him the war.

Even in the First War, yes, he took Stormwind, but only after Blackhand had lead the war till the end, and it took Garona's assassination of King Llane to damage the chain of command and shatter morale orchestrated by Gul'Dan to do it.

With Gilneas, it really makes me sad and annoyed at them as they barely did anything in the Second War, and then just shut itself in afterward, and allow the rest of the world to rot for it all cared for. If it had actually committed to the war, the Second War and afterward Azeorth would have been a different place.

 

[Lord Malikai]

It's definitely very interesting and helpful. I will see what I can make out of those suggestions of yours. Thank you a lot!

If you have any specific questions, let me know. It's tricky to summarize all the content of the games and then to extrapolate information on top of that. My analysis may be more muddled than I'd have liked, and specific questions may be easier to answer.

I think one way of explaining is a great deal of living survivors of the Northen Kingdoms who didn't flee West with Jaina, or holdouts fled south, to Stomwind, thus giving it the manpower to quickly develop its infrastructure, military, and government.

I agree with this completely.

With why the Horde lost the Second War: Orgrim Doomhammer wasn't a great military . The man never ever seemed to secure anything, just moving from one front to the other with no strict plan while throwing away soldiers on distraction strategies. The campaign in Khaz Modan was still highly costly to the Horde, and he still wasted time laying siege to Ironforge.

If you puzzle over the lore, it seems like Doomhammer did secure certain key points, but those points are unintuitive at first glance. For instance the whole Khaz Modan campaign was waged to secure the oil and metals necessary to supply the Horde's navy and protect the supply lines north, not to eliminate the dwarves as a military threat. It's like the Warchief was always building towards the knockout blow against Lordaeron while ignoring the longer term strategic implications of expanding the war in Khaz Modan, Quel'thalas etc. Considering that's pretty much the same mistake the Germans made with the Schlieffen plan in WW1, it is a believable, if flawed, strategy.

 

[koa_dan]

If you have any specific questions, let me know. It's tricky to summarize all the content of the games and then to extrapolate information on top of that. My analysis may be more muddled than I'd have liked, and specific questions may be easier to answer.

I don't have a question yet. But I would like you to hear my re-estimation based on your suggestions.

First, for the humans. I used the population of the Habsburg Empire (including continental Spain), the number is 18 (HRE) + 7.5 (Spain) which equals to 25.5 (approximately the one you gave). So Stormwind in this case has 7.5 million since it is more a military powerhouse, Lordareon as the political leader has about 6.4 million (Austria + Bohemian Lands). Meanwhile, Gilneas has a population of 5.5 million (England + Habsburg Netherlands, inspired by the short-lived Anglo-Dutch personal union). The rest are about the same.

On the other hand, I still prefer the 2 million number for the entire orcish race. But it's as you said that they didn't fully join the Second War. So I would give Orgrim only 120-150,000 (the number of the Eight Banner Army under Nurhaci during the conquest of Ming China) out of 400,000 (total combat force of the whole race) to push north. Among a dozen clans, the Blackrock clan has the highest population of 350,000 (the number of a tumen under Dayan Khan) while other only have tens of thousands each. Post-war, the race lost around 360,000 lives (the number of Yuan dynasty's tumens lost to the Ming during their retreat back to Mongolia), including internment casualties, so their population has fallen to around 1.7 million.

About the dwarves, I'm still thinking about their population but will definitely reduce it as you suggested.

 

[Rorian]

You put 85 000 on the wandering Isle. Is that not too much? How big is the turtle?

 

[koa_dan]

You put 85 000 on the wandering Isle. Is that not too much? How big is the turtle?

I know you can't trust Blizzard's official map art but at least I've got the feeling that it's pretty big.

 

[Lord Malikai]

First, for the humans. I used the population of the Habsburg Empire (including continental Spain), the number is 18 (HRE) + 7.5 (Spain) which equals to 25.5 (approximately the one you gave). So Stormwind in this case has 7.5 million since it is more a military powerhouse, Lordareon as the political leader has about 6.4 million (Austria + Bohemian Lands). Meanwhile, Gilneas has a population of 5.5 million (England + Habsburg Netherlands, inspired by the short-lived Anglo-Dutch personal union). The rest are about the same.

These numbers look totally fine. I could quibble a little here and there, for instance I always got the sense that Stormwind was far and away the most powerful, no just marginally more powerful, but I think that's a judgment call.

On the other hand, I still prefer the 2 million number for the entire orcish race. But it's as you said that they didn't fully join the Second War. So I would give Orgrim only 120-150,000 (the number of the Eight Banner Army under Nurhaci during the conquest of Ming China) out of 400,000 (total combat force of the whole race) to push north. Among a dozen clans, the Blackrock clan has the highest population of 350,000 (the number of a tumen under Dayan Khan) while other only have tens of thousands each. Post-war, the race lost around 360,000 lives (the number of Yuan dynasty's tumens lost to the Ming during their retreat back to Mongolia), including internment casualties, so their population has fallen to around 1.7 million.

For the orcs, I'm still inclined to disagree for several reasons. First, the Horde invasion of Azeroth always seemed to have a demographic component. Whether Draenor was somehow dying or simply overpopulated (the specifics change in the lore over time) it seems clear there were too many orcs for the land they had. Draenor's area is never exactly specified but it's obviously at least continent sized. Overpopulating a continent seems hard to do with only 2 million orcs and a handful of surviving Draenei.

Second, while it's clear that an individual orc can overpower an individual human, it's never established that a group of orcs can overpower an equivalent group of humans. In fact I think in large-scale warfare one human legion would probably be about equal to a similar-sized orcish formation. This I believe for several reasons. Human technology and equipment is obviously superior to orcish technology; human footmen go into battle in full plate armor, while an orc grunt has some shoulder pads and leather armor. Likewise the alliance fights with guns and planes, the orcs with bows and axes. Humans also have far more and more technically proficient spellcasters. In the First War the Horde had abandoned shamanism less than a generation before. Their entire spellcasting corps was made up of a handful of warlocks and necromancers. In the Second War, to hamstring Gul'Dan, Doomhammer had the necromancers wiped out. These were hastily replaced with death knights [edit: also a few ogre mages but these are so rare only one is ever mentioned specifically: Cho'Gall], but again they were few in number and generally inexperienced despite being fairly powerful individually. Compare this to the extensive institutional memory and massive number of mages and clerics the Alliance can draw on. Finally, I think the Alliance has a far stronger understanding of strategy and tactics. Human armies are organized in units with established logistic support. Individuals fight in shieldwalls and other formations with indications of combined arms strategies. Horde armies in the First and Second War seem to eschew most of these organizational features and fight individually in ill-disciplined mobs.

Because of these factors, I find it hard to believe that the Horde had such a qualitative advantage that they could fight with a quantitative disadvantage of more than 10:1. Factoring in Doomhammer fighting so much of the war with a fraction of the orcish population, it's more like 20:1 or 30:1. I think it more likely that in the macro-scale the Horde was much closer to parity with the Alliance's population.

In terms of real world populations, maybe look the population of classic "others" from the European perspective. Perhaps, Mesoamerica before it was conquered by the Spanish? A quick google search estimates the Aztec population at 5,000,000. You could assign this number to the clans in Doomhammer's Lordaeron offensive (Blackrock, Twilight's Hammer and Stomreaver Clans). The rival Tarascans had a population of 1,500,000, so maybe this goes to the Shadowmoon Clan? I'm just brainstorming here. Alternatively, you could use the Ottoman Empire (11.5 million in 1520) as a basis and try to break down the clans by region of the Empire. However you go, they are your estimates, so do as you wish. I'm just trying to suggest plausible alternatives.

TLDR: I think your human numbers are good. I think the old Horde probably had somewhere close to numerical parity with the Alliance for a number of reasons listed above. Since the Alliance is based on Hapsburg population numbers, I think the Horde should be based on a traditional "outside" enemy of the Hapsburgs like the Ottomans or Mesoamericans.

 

[koa_dan]

TLDR: I think your human numbers are good. I think the old Horde probably had somewhere close to numerical parity with the Alliance for a number of reasons listed above. Since the Alliance is based on Hapsburg population numbers, I think the Horde should be based on a traditional "outside" enemy of the Hapsburgs like the Ottomans or Mesoamericans.

Ok, thanks for that, I will put a little more thought in this. If the Horde had a pre-invasion population of 11 million, how many of them were supposed to pass the Dark Portal to invade Azeroth (1/4 of them as total combat force)? And how many of them managed to escape back to Azeroth during the Destruction of Draenor (half as you mentioned earlier)?

In case of the dwarves, I would use the Safavid population of 3.2 million for them (inspired by the fact that Damascus steel is also known as Persian watered steel). With that said, Ironforge has 1.9 million (native Iranians), Wildhammer 550k (Caucasian slaves) and Dark Iron 750k (Turcoman).

 

[Lord Malikai]

Ok, thanks for that, I will put a little more thought in this. If the Horde had a pre-invasion population of 11 million, how many of them were supposed to pass the Dark Portal to invade Azeroth (1/4 of them as total combat force)? And how many of them managed to escape back to Azeroth during the Destruction of Draenor (half as you mentioned earlier)?

By the way, do you happen to know the ethnic distribution of the Safavid Empire during the 16th century?

In general I'm assuming the Shattering of Draenor killed around 19/20 present. I don't have a good formula for how many orcs are in total on either side of the portal at any moment considering the amount of back and forth travel, so I will instead summarize the general situation of each Clan in the Second War and then estimate survivors based on feel. Chances are all the Clans took heavy military losses, but a Clan by Clan analysis should shed some light on the situations of the non-combatants.

Nine clans made it through the Dark Portal to Azeroth before the Second War: Blackrock, Stormreaver, Twilight's Hammer, Bleeding Hollow, Dragonmaw, Black Tooth Grin, Burning Blade, Frostwolf and Warsong. I assume all of them brought some non-combatants through the Dark Portal as they were intending to settle Azeroth, but many of these settlers were likely killed during the war, even if at a lower rate than if they were caught in the Shattering.

The Frostwolf Clan was exiled either immediately before or after transiting to Azeroth. Thus, I think it's safe to say they have a high proportion of non-combatants, but also a low total population as the Clan is probably pretty worn down over the course of their exile.

The Burning Blade aren't a formal clan so probably had no non-combatants to begin with. A few survived through to the Third War and became Blade Masters, but for any high-level population survey I would consider the clan to have died off in the course of the Second War and Shattering of Draenor.

The Warsong Clan did technically come through the Portal during the Second War, but retreated back through it to help Ner'zhul post-Second War. Since they spent the war guarding the Portal itself, I assume that the non-combatants probably stayed on Draenor. The Clan then escaped back through the Portal during the Shattering of Draenor. I think it's fair to assume that most of their non-combatants came through the Portal this time with the warriors, since they go on to be the only "intact" clan to join up with Thrall and found the new Horde. However, it's likely many still died on Draenor since only so many orcs could physically fit through the Dark Portal at a time.

Of the remaining six clans:

The Black Tooth Grin Clan sat out the war defending the Dark Portal and the Swamp of Sorrows. I assume their non-combatants settled in the Swamp of Sorrows. Rather than retreating through the Portal at the end, they somehow dodged the Alliance army coming from Blackrock Spire and retreated north to that fortress. Along with fragments of the Blackrock Clan they formed the Dark Horde before the WoW era. I think it's likely that a fair chunk of the non-combatants survived the retreat north, since the Dark Horde is still a force to be reckoned with in the WoW era, a generation after the Second War. Chances are, as a large clan that never retreated back through the Dark Portal, the Black Tooth Grin Clan has a comparatively large surviving population.

The Dragonmaw Clan occupied Grim Batol for most of the Second War, again likely bringing their non-combatants with them. The Clan seems to have become very fragmented post-Second War. Part was wiped out by Alexstrasza in Grim Batol. Some remnant of the clan survived outside Grim Batol and ended up joining the Twilight's Hammer by the era of WoW. Another part returned through the Dark Portal and survived the Shattering of Draenor. In researching this, I'm surprised the clan survived in so many places, though there can't have been all that many people left in any one place as they were a smaller Clan to begin with.

The Bleeding Hollow Clan occupied Khaz Modan for most of the Second War. As a large and presumably prestigious clan, I assume they settled many of their non-combatants there. However, settling so many outside of Draenor didn't save them as these non-combatants probably took heavy casualties on the retreat back to Blackrock Spire. They then took additional casualties on the retreat to the Dark Portal. Finally any that escaped back beyond the Portal were wiped out in the Shattering of Draenor, though a few did escape with the Warsong Clan back to Azeroth. Overall, the clan seems to have been heavily hit, even if they are also a good chunk of the interned population.

The Stormreaver Clan went north to Lordaeron with Orgrim Doomhammer and ultimately betrayed him. Their non-combatants were probably purged at the same time as the rest of the Clan, when word got through to wherever they were settled that the Clan was traitorous.

The Twilight's Hammer Clan also turned on Doomhammer. Originally I thought a fair amount of this clan survived as the Twilight's Hammer Cult is around in the WoW era. On further research, I think the Clan itself was mostly wiped out like the Stormreavers but enough of the leadership survived to found the Cult with the help of some other remnant Clans like the Dragonmaw listed above.

The Blackrock Clan was the largest Clan before the Second War. Their non-combatants were settled around Blackrock Spire and probably Stormwind. Like the Bleeding Hollow Clan, many non-combatants were probably captured or killed in the course of the war. Many also retreated through the Dark Portal and were caught in the Shattering of Draenor. However, as the largest and strongest clan I assume they had the largest settler population and thus the largest total number of survivors.

Two other Clans never passed through the Dark Portal. I assume their non-combatant population would have been located very far from the Dark Portal, which makes escape back to Azeroth unlikely. Thus these two clans took the heaviest casualties in the Shattering:

The Shadowmoon Clan led by Ner'zhul, was mostly wiped out in the Shattering of Draenor. Whatever was left survived to join the Fel Horde in post-Shattering Outland.

The Shattered Hand Clan was also caught by the Shattering of Draenor. Like the Shadowmoons, the few survivors joined the Fel Horde. Enough others escaped back to Azeroth with the Warsong Clan to still have a distinct Clan culture, but I suspect only enough survived to "top off" the Warsong's losses and not constitute a significant reinforcement.

In terms of actual numbers, based on what I posted before:

Second War Horde Populations:

• Blackrock Clan Pre-War: 3,000,000 Post-War: 750,000
• Stormreaver Clan Pre-War: 500,000 Post-War: nil
• Twilight's Hammer Clan Pre-War: 1,000,000 Post-War: 50,000
• Black Tooth Grin Clan Pre-War: 1,000,000 Post-War: 350,000
• Bleeding Hollow Clan Pre-War: 2,000,000 Post-War: 200,000
• Dragonmaw Clan Pre- War: 500,000 Post-War: 100,000
• Burning Blade Pre-War: 100,000 Post-War: nil
• Shadowmoon Clan Pre-War: 2,500,000 Post-War: 120,000
• Warsong Clan Pre-War: 1,000,000 Post-War: 500,000 - "largely intact" is relative even if they absorb a few survivors of other clans
• Shattered Hand Clan Pre-War: 1,000,000 Post-War: 50,000
• Frostwolf Clan Pre-War: 200,000 Post-War: 200,000 - I revised this one down because it never seems like there are really that many Frostwolves

• Total Orc Population Pre-War: 14,000,000 Post-War: 2,500,000 - of these a couple hundred-thousand are on Draenor, about 1 million in internment and around 1 million are free in some form or other. Thrall's Horde would gather perhaps half of the free and interned for his new Horde.

Let me know what you think. I hope the list of populations formats correctly.

Edit: I think the Dwarf populations look really good.
In terms of real world populations for the Orcs, I'm inclined towards Mesoamerica. The Mesoamericans also took massive population losses - though from plague, not magic world shattering - in the time you're looking at.

 

[koa_dan]

Let me know what you think. I hope the list of populations formats correctly.

Edit: I think the Dwarf populations look really good.
In terms of real world populations for the Orcs, I'm inclined towards Mesoamerica. The Mesoamericans also took massive population losses - though from plague, not magic world shattering - in the time you're looking at.

Looks great! I will read it more carefully tomorrow. It's pretty late here already haha. Thanks for your efforts.