I think we agree in one point. France was military superior to Spain and Portugal, and they had a much more competent leadership, and much more competent NCO's thanks to their meritocratic system. So, with enough commitment, they could have made whatever they wanted. My doubts, however, are about wether France was able of this commitment in 1795. If we took 1808 as a mirror, with the Grande Armée over the terrain, they faced several difficulties regarding logistics, plus they were forced to divert a good chunk of men only to keep order, or something that seemed order, in Iberia. Of course, Wellington's army was important. But, anyway, what impedes another british intervention in OTL? Thus, in my opinion, it would be interesting to know how many french there were over the terrain in the different fronts in 1795, and how many men and means had the ensemble of the french forces in order to know wether the iberian task was possible or not before being bugged in a logistical nightmare through endless sierras and bad roads and a shortage of manpower before reaching Andalusia or even Madrid. Even more if Prussia is still in the fight and the french are still commited in the eastern bank of the Rhin. That's just my point.
Yes, kicking out Godoy would score points to whoever does it, though we have also take in consideration that in 1795, though unpopular, he hasn't reached still is peak of unpopularity. To substitute him, Saavedra, like in OTL, seems a likely option, he had pro-french inclinations and wasn't disliked by the Directory. OTOH, probably Urquijo would be the best option over the paper (as you say Aranda wasn't around and probably wasn't interested in the responsability). Urquijo, who actually also substituted Godoy in OTL after Saavedra get ill, was an Aranda protegé, enlighted and translator of Voltaire. "Unfortunatelly" he had been ambassador in London, and the french were a bit suspicious about him, and that probably precipited his fall in OTL. Perhaps in different circumstances those susceptibilities about him can be avoided or overlooked. And of course we have Jovellanos, enlighted, though hardly liberal in the political sense the term was taking at the time, but quite popular, an able man and without much problems with the french ascendancy (until 1808, of course).
Cheers.
