W.I the RAF manage to intercept the raid on Ceylon?

SCOUT 5249

The raid on Ceylon was another blow the British forces, two squadrons were rendered in operable and 43 vessels sunk, the Easter Sunday raids on Colombo and Trincomalee Harbour being the worst with the loss of the Hermes.

The RAF squadrons were caught with their pants down, they had no advance warning the radars were turned off for maintenance, forcing the hurricane pilots to climb up to meet ready zero fighters, if that wasn't enough all the hurricane had no tracer munitions as some tracer rounds exploded in heat so they were all using standard ball ammunition which made it very hard for RAF pilots properly see if they had even hitting the enemy.

But what if the radars had been turned on and the squadrons had been on full alert with CAP that day?

Could the RAF have prevented the loss of the Hermes and the other ships?
How high would the losses be for the Japanese raiders?
What would the effect of beating attack and winning?
 
HMS St.Lawrence

HMS St.Lawrence

Early warning will help, but I think better preparations could help even more.
OTL, the British tried to defend everywhere, making the defences of both Colombo and Trincomalee rather small in numbers. In a best case scenario, where the RAF and FAA concentrate their efforts around Colombo (Trincomalee was a good harbour but lacked installations) and get earlier warning of the incoming raid (not that hard considering the Japanese aircrafts were actually spotted early in the morning by a Catalina which mistaken them for Allied and did not reported them) the Japanese are still going to 'win' the day because the attack is still goign to be carried out. But if the 30ish fighters from Trincomalee are in the air with those from Colombo at the moment the Japaneses arrives, that's more than 80 fighters the Japanese will have to get through.

Because the Japanese losses will be higher, maybe indirectly the Hermes will be saved but IMO the best way to save her is simply to give her aircover. Some Fulmars flying at good altitude with enough fuel reserves could easily stay above the ship for prolonged period of time and disrupt eventual attackers enough for the ship to avoid fatal damages.

However I think the more important side-effects would be the realisation that the Japaneses aren't invincible war-wizards and the earlier attrition of IJN aircrews, both of which proved to be keys factors to the Allied victory.
 

SCOUT 5249

HMS St.Lawrence said:
Early warning will help, but I think better preparations could help even more.
OTL, the British tried to defend everywhere, making the defences of both Colombo and Trincomalee rather small in numbers. In a best case scenario, where the RAF and FAA concentrate their efforts around Colombo (Trincomalee was a good harbour but lacked installations) and get earlier warning of the incoming raid (not that hard considering the Japanese aircrafts were actually spotted early in the morning by a Catalina which mistaken them for Allied and did not reported them) the Japanese are still going to 'win' the day because the attack is still goign to be carried out. But if the 30ish fighters from Trincomalee are in the air with those from Colombo at the moment the Japaneses arrives, that's more than 80 fighters the Japanese will have to get through.

Because the Japanese losses will be higher, maybe indirectly the Hermes will be saved but IMO the best way to save her is simply to give her aircover. Some Fulmars flying at good altitude with enough fuel reserves could easily stay above the ship for prolonged period of time and disrupt eventual attackers enough for the ship to avoid fatal damages.

However I think the more important side-effects would be the realisation that the Japaneses aren't invincible war-wizards and the earlier attrition of IJN aircrews, both of which proved to be keys factors to the Allied victory.
Click to expand...

Midway being easier and even worse defeat.

The fulmar fighters will suffer a lot since they are slower than a hurricane and zero fighter. So maybe the Val dive bombers might put the ship OOA.
 

Draconis

There was in fact a warning issued about the Japanese attack. The Easter Sunday raid would have been worse without Leonard Birchall and his flight crew.

en.wikipedia.org

Leonard Birchall - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

1591150916872.png
 
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