What would happen is during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait the US just says "not my problem" and leaves Kuwait to its fate.
US abandones Kuwait
- Thread starter ChadMachine999
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- gulf war iraq kuwait saddam hussein
Otto Kretschmer
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Would they do this? It would really hurt US credibility all around the world. What is the use for an ally like this?
USA gives up a huge amount of soft power and influence around the world.
RandomFloridian
Banned
In hindsight, it would have been a better thing to do than what actually happened.
Let me explain because I myself been thinking about what would happen if the U.S had done this.
Looking at what happened to the middle east and especially Iraq after the U.S invasions,
You will see a disturbing trend of "Terrorists" using stockpiles of weapons that were left behind by the topped previous governments.
One of the more notable terrorist groups that did this was ISIS.
The reason they got so much land and became so strong was that the environment was the perfect storm.
Toppled governments that are still recovering
Civil wars that have had foreign governments interfering for their own interests.
And a bunch of angry people that have had their livelihood destroyed with nowhere else to go or anything to do.
The U.S government had supported the Afghans by supplying them with weapons along with intelligence to fight the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
Now fast forward a bit after the USSR's Afghanistan has failed and the USSR has collapsed some of the same Afghans that the U.S supplied with weapons to fight the USSR was responsible or partly responsible for the 9/11 attacks.
The US also supported Saddam Hussein with military intelligence arms and equipment during the Iran Iraq war because they did not want for Iran to get any stronger.
If you don't see the point I am getting at it that the US supports one regime or group only to end up fighting them later,
Either the US decides that they aren't useful to them anymore and takes them out or the group or regime ends up betraying the US.
So what do I think is going to happen if the US lets Saddam keep Kuwait.
Iraq will most likely wait 4-7 years to try to go at it with Iran again in the war and try to conquer them to spread their influence in the region and become a formidable power in the middle east.
The best-case scenario for the Iraqis is that they somehow catch Iran off guard and push to Tehran
Worst case scenario is that they severely underestimate Iran and Bagdad gets captured as well as the government is forced to pay reparations or even replaced with a Iranian puppet government.
Either way in my opinion ISIS and other violent groups won't get as powerful in the middle east as they did in our timeline because there is no constant US bombing or US troops being deployed to constantly "keep the peace"
But this is just my opinion and what I think would happen.
In the end, unless humans get the powers to see alternate timelines I guess we will never truly know what would happen in the long run.
However I can say that had the US never supported the Afghans in fighting the USSR they would have won anyways and 9/11 might not happen as well due to less possibly US influence in the Region.
Even if the Soviets did somehow win by pouring more recourses in the war they most likely would have had a hollow victory because they were already beginning to collapse and fall.
Them putting more resources in and winning might just spread up their collapse.
Edit: I apologize for any spelling or grammar mistakes in advance.
Let me explain because I myself been thinking about what would happen if the U.S had done this.
Looking at what happened to the middle east and especially Iraq after the U.S invasions,
You will see a disturbing trend of "Terrorists" using stockpiles of weapons that were left behind by the topped previous governments.
One of the more notable terrorist groups that did this was ISIS.
The reason they got so much land and became so strong was that the environment was the perfect storm.
Toppled governments that are still recovering
Civil wars that have had foreign governments interfering for their own interests.
And a bunch of angry people that have had their livelihood destroyed with nowhere else to go or anything to do.
The U.S government had supported the Afghans by supplying them with weapons along with intelligence to fight the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
Now fast forward a bit after the USSR's Afghanistan has failed and the USSR has collapsed some of the same Afghans that the U.S supplied with weapons to fight the USSR was responsible or partly responsible for the 9/11 attacks.
The US also supported Saddam Hussein with military intelligence arms and equipment during the Iran Iraq war because they did not want for Iran to get any stronger.
If you don't see the point I am getting at it that the US supports one regime or group only to end up fighting them later,
Either the US decides that they aren't useful to them anymore and takes them out or the group or regime ends up betraying the US.
So what do I think is going to happen if the US lets Saddam keep Kuwait.
Iraq will most likely wait 4-7 years to try to go at it with Iran again in the war and try to conquer them to spread their influence in the region and become a formidable power in the middle east.
The best-case scenario for the Iraqis is that they somehow catch Iran off guard and push to Tehran
Worst case scenario is that they severely underestimate Iran and Bagdad gets captured as well as the government is forced to pay reparations or even replaced with a Iranian puppet government.
Either way in my opinion ISIS and other violent groups won't get as powerful in the middle east as they did in our timeline because there is no constant US bombing or US troops being deployed to constantly "keep the peace"
But this is just my opinion and what I think would happen.
In the end, unless humans get the powers to see alternate timelines I guess we will never truly know what would happen in the long run.
However I can say that had the US never supported the Afghans in fighting the USSR they would have won anyways and 9/11 might not happen as well due to less possibly US influence in the Region.
Even if the Soviets did somehow win by pouring more recourses in the war they most likely would have had a hollow victory because they were already beginning to collapse and fall.
Them putting more resources in and winning might just spread up their collapse.
Edit: I apologize for any spelling or grammar mistakes in advance.
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Considering how much of an opportunist Saddam was if he is able to get Kuwait without provoking any sort of real physical response from the US or elsewhere I'd reckon their is a very good chance that Saddam outright go's after the Saudi's. Either outright annex a few worthwhile provinces that they can claim they have a "Legitimate Claim" to and or install a puppet dictator in former Saudi Arabia.
Saddam would now control like what forty to fifty percent of Global oil exports if not more and a massive chunk of proven reserves.
Considering how weak Saudi Forces were at the time I think he could do it. Well he could knock over the Saudis. But he'd have massive problems keeping the entire place under control.
Saddam would now control like what forty to fifty percent of Global oil exports if not more and a massive chunk of proven reserves.
Considering how weak Saudi Forces were at the time I think he could do it. Well he could knock over the Saudis. But he'd have massive problems keeping the entire place under control.
The USA loose a little credibility because Koweït had no defense pact with the USA, but Saudi Arabia is protected by the USA since the 50's so Irak will stop its invasion after Koweït.
Read about American Saudi relations in this Wikipedia article.
en.wikipedia.org
Read about American Saudi relations in this Wikipedia article.
Saudi Arabia–United States relations - Wikipedia
The USA loose a little credibility because Koweït had no defense pact with the USA, but Saudi Arabia is protected by the USA since the 50's so Irak will stop its invasion after Koweït.
Read about American Saudi relations in this Wikipedia article.
Saudi Arabia–United States relations - Wikipedia
I mean if you go with the OP's "After the Cold War the US went full blown isolationist" it doesn't seem like the Saudi pact would be valid.
The OP said the USA becomes more isolationist. For me, it mean, the USA still respected its signed treaties but not engaged in others foreigns wars as fighting for Koweït or bombing Serbia because of Croatian, Bosnian or Kosovar wars.
Becoming more isolationist mean also no extension of NATO to Central Europe and a lot of tensions between the USA and its European allies because the USA will evacuated some of its troops to the USA and asked the Europeans to continue to have huge troops for NATO.
IMHO:
Numerous other countries pledge to come to the aid of Saudi Arabia if needed. There might even be some non US forces deployed to Saudi Arabia.
Maybe a coalition (not including the U.S.) eventually ejects Iraq from Kuwait.
The U.S. looses significant soft power and influence.
I really don’t see how the US would become so isolationist that it would just let saddam have his way with Kuwait and leave Saudi Arabia at risk. No one in there right mind is letting saddam have all that Kuwaiti and Saudi oil to himself. What POD could possibly make the US this isolationist without being big enough to butterfly the invasion away?
Well, from what's been said here America didn't have any treaties with Kuwait. Maybe ITTL they go 'right, not our problem if you take Kuwait, but send just one soldier inside Saudi and you'll be sorry'
*Saddam wants to conquer Iran’s oil rich border province resulting in a war that kills a million people*
Americans: Woah great job man! We’ll set you up with some nerve gas and give you satellite images to help you use it. We trust you with this oil and all this military equipment!
*Saddam invaded Kuwait and 700 people die*
Americans: Woah you can’t have all of this oil. You’re a mad man. What’s next, toppling the our good friends Saudi Arabia? Nobody can be trusted with this much oil! We’re pushing you out of Kuwait, sanctioning you, sending troops to Islamic holy lands, and will just wait to see what happens with no exit strategy.
Americans: Woah great job man! We’ll set you up with some nerve gas and give you satellite images to help you use it. We trust you with this oil and all this military equipment!
*Saddam invaded Kuwait and 700 people die*
Americans: Woah you can’t have all of this oil. You’re a mad man. What’s next, toppling the our good friends Saudi Arabia? Nobody can be trusted with this much oil! We’re pushing you out of Kuwait, sanctioning you, sending troops to Islamic holy lands, and will just wait to see what happens with no exit strategy.
Why not? Oil sold by Baghdad refines just as easily as oil sold by Kuwait City the only difference is who is cashing the check.
That didn’t stop us iotl from getting involved. To do this and let Kuwait go would be an embarrassment to the US. Once again, what pod could make the US this isolationist when it had just spent the last four decades sticking its fingers in as many pies as possible? You can’t just handwave this shit.
Because you want it to come from your guy not your enemy’s guy.
Really? Who's buying all that Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian oil? I bet a lot of the people are on Washington's side.
Why can't Saddam become Washington's guy just as easily as the Emir Sheikh Jaber al Ahmand al-Sabah? Franco was Hitler's guy until April 1945 when that job sort of suddenly ended and his became Washington's guy so clearly its possible go from the "enemy's guy to your guy."
Totally different situation. Russia/Venezuela/Iran didn’t just annex another important oil rich state with close ties to the US/West. Why get it from someone you don’t really like when you can get it from someone you do like?
As I said, because he just invaded an oil rich ally, and iirc he thought he had US approval to do so. That’s not exactly how you start a friendship with Washington. It’s like trying to become someone friend after beating up their acquaintance, it’s not gonna endear you to them. Plus, having too much oil in the hands of someone as crazy as saddam isn’t something anyone would be ok with. Plus things changed big time after WW2 so Franco went from a lesser fascist friend of my enemy to another ally in the fight against communism. He wasn’t in control of a very important resource.
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Saddam Hussein was a US ally as late as the mid 1980's. The US still supported Iraq unofficially until Bush 1 changed his mind in late 1989. The Iraqis invade Kuwait in August of 1990. 11 months of being an enemy isn't that long. Plenty of butterflies to explain a different US response.