So that's if Argentina gets Uruguay. What effect would an Argentine Paraguay have, assuming all else is as in OTL?
Uruguay and Paraguay part of Argentina
- Thread starter lynxpt
- Start date
Yes, I agree, if the war is total war (as it was in the Paraguayan war) Brazil will win.
If they go to war with Argentina over Uruguay and lose (for some reason), I think it's very likely that they will lose the south in a revolt. In fact, I think it's even possible for the country to collapse and generate several new countries.
Indians will not be accepted in the same way as they were by Paraguay. So they will be second class. Other than that, not much will change in the short term;
Through the 19th century, Paraguay is likely to be an anti-Buenos Aires province, so we can expect a stronger support to the federalist cause. That may mean the Brazilian army isn't needed to decide the Argentine civil wars like in OTL Caseros. Of course, butterflies also mean Rosas may not rise to power and something like OTL battle of Caseros may not happen. So maybe an earlier federalist victory?
Paraguay has more easily accesible iron deposits than Argentina, so by the early 20th century this greater Argentina may begin to build steel foundries combining Paraguayan iron with vegetal carbon, leading to a more robust industrialization by the 1920s, or maybe even earlier. Overall, I'd say the province of Paraguay would push for more successful integration of the Eastern Argentine provinces, but I'm not sure how much that can actually speed up development. The railways will be built by the time it was financially and technologically possible. Argentina could have imported Paraguayan iron ore before exploiting its own in the 1940s. Clearing the Parana river for navigation doesn't require Paraguay to be part of the country. Hydroelectric dams in the Parana and Paraguay rivers could be built sooner, as there is no need to coordinate between two countries.
that or maybe a three way civil war.
For this they first need to "domesticate" the region of Paraguay, secondly they need Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina (the two southernmost states of Brazil). They are the only regions with good quality coal (similar to that found in England) in large amout in the whole area. Any power that really wants to industrialize needs these mines. Which leads me to believe that if any industrial power emerged in the southern cone, this would be the central industrial region or one of them.
The Brazilian navy was far superior to that of its neighbors. And it stayed that way. Argentina would have to focus everything on the army if it wants to face Brazil.
Last edited:
If Argentina avoids its long civil war, I think it could take Paraguay and southern Bolivia with any luck. Regarding uruguay as already mentioned, unless the British enter the Cisplatine war on the Argentine side or make an early Pod in the colonial era, it is very difficult for Argentina to hold Uruguay without getting into repeated conflicts with Brazil.
that or maybe a three way civil war.
For this they first need to "domesticate" the region of Paraguay, secondly they need Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina (the two southernmost states of Brazil). They are the only regions with good quality coal (similar to that found in England) in large amout in the whole area. Any power that really wants to industrialize needs these mines. Which leads me to believe that if any industrial power emerged in the southern cone, this would be the central industrial region or one of them.
The Brazilian navy was far superior to that of its neighbors. And it stayed that way. Argentina would have to focus everything on the army if it wants to face Brazil.
That´s because yhe army was prposefull underfunded in contrast to tghe Navy. Imperial strategy was designed by Bonifál e Dona leopoldina to be like that form two reassons,a strong navy will battlae in the seas and in enemy watters, second,armys are very able to do a coup d'etat,Brazil hasplanty of space to trade for time,so the reason eas to have a good professional and tecnical core of officers that you could grown the army around.That general strategic outlook was the imperial brazilian default military strategy,even after the Paraguayan war,and ,well it's sound reason showed pretty weel in the army cuop of the empire in 1889.
That´s not quite realistici in imperial Brazil,not in Pedro II times,the country actually fought a civil war,the farroupilha war with the ssouth before the second empire was consolidaated,Pedro II ,gave Brazila national identity.As history showed,eventually it was the brazilian who marched to Buenos aires.
Yes, the army was secondary to the navy. A tradition inherited from the Portuguese.
No, it was a terrible form of army. A semi-professional army (with a lot of semi). The reason Brazil lost Uruguay was that while the Brazilian navy destroyed the Argentine navy, the Brazilian army was not able to do the same. Regarding the coup, it was successful not because the army had more resources but because the emperor was in deep depression. If this coup had occurred a decade ago, it would have been destroyed and would be so irrelevant that it would not even be studied in school. The emperor is the factor that allowed this attempt.
Yes, in the period of Dom Pedro II. The Ragamuffin war lasted 10 years, and although the army controlled the capital and some of the larger cities, the interior belonged to the Gaucho army. With the army not being able to destroy this army. Dom Pedro II was crowned in the middle of the war.
Yep, him and later on Vargas.
Yes, in a war after the war with the gauchos, Brazil went to war with Argentina and won. In particular, It won something very special. The right to navigate the Plata basin without being questioned by Argentina. Holding access to western Brazil.
Last edited:
I agree that underfund the army was temerary,in the Cisplatine war,the underfunding was more a problem due to the liberal congreess didn´t give the necessary money to the army fight the war properly than the emperor"s will. The congrees feared that the emperor would make the army loyal to him and subjugate the congress,shortsighted in deed. But part of the army problem in the republic coup was that aafter the Paraguayan war,part of the officer corps thought they should have more say in the government,to say nothing of the positivist teachings in the Praia Vermelha beach army military academy.(Benjamin Constant , i am looking at you!)
Last edited:
Even with this, the coup that occurred would not have succeeded without the acceptance of Dom Pedro II. Weck, the moment he found out about the attempt, the navy and loyal army officers were mobilizing to deal with the coup plotters. It was the Emperor who prevented this and no one else. If he had authorized the coup plotters would have lasted a week or so at most. Especially since the army they controlled was made up of loyal soldiers to the empire.
Again, i agree,Count Déu did want to resist but D.Pedro forbade,i have no doubt that the loyalist would crunch the coup. D.Pedro II just gave up,or like he sad,he did not want brazilian blood shed in his name.Too bad for us brazilians!
Last edited: