Okay, so it is accepted wisdom that the Typhoon that unexpectedly struck Okinawa on October 9, 1945 (nicknamed Typhoon "Louise") would have caused a 45-day delay in the invasion of Kyushu had the war not ended in August 1945.
I've wondered about this for a little while now, because of information like this map and this map which show that for the invasion of Kyushu (Operation OLYMPIC, later renamed Operation MAJESTIC in August 1945) of the 14 divisions planned for use (12 assault and 2 follow-up) only ONE division was to be mounted from Okinawa while 1 division was to be mounted from the Marianas, 9 divisions were to be mounted from the Philippines and 3 divisions were to be mounted from Hawaii. Furthermore there were 3 divisions in reserve for MAJESTIC with 1 division based in the Ryukyu Islands (essentially Okinawa) and 2 divisions based in the Philippine Islands.
Thus out of the 17 divisions available for MAJESTIC only 2 divisions were based in or to be mounted from Okinawa.
How then could there really have been a 45-day delay in the planned launch of MAJESTIC if there were 15 divisions available for use and not based in or mounted from Okinawa and MAJESTIC required 14 divisions?
Is it that the "US analysts" referred to who made this assessment didn't know what they were talking about? Or that they were referring to instead a 45-day delay in the launch of the division that was to be mounted from Okinawa to invade southern Kyushu instead of to the entire operation?
I've wondered about this for a little while now, because of information like this map and this map which show that for the invasion of Kyushu (Operation OLYMPIC, later renamed Operation MAJESTIC in August 1945) of the 14 divisions planned for use (12 assault and 2 follow-up) only ONE division was to be mounted from Okinawa while 1 division was to be mounted from the Marianas, 9 divisions were to be mounted from the Philippines and 3 divisions were to be mounted from Hawaii. Furthermore there were 3 divisions in reserve for MAJESTIC with 1 division based in the Ryukyu Islands (essentially Okinawa) and 2 divisions based in the Philippine Islands.
Thus out of the 17 divisions available for MAJESTIC only 2 divisions were based in or to be mounted from Okinawa.
How then could there really have been a 45-day delay in the planned launch of MAJESTIC if there were 15 divisions available for use and not based in or mounted from Okinawa and MAJESTIC required 14 divisions?
Is it that the "US analysts" referred to who made this assessment didn't know what they were talking about? Or that they were referring to instead a 45-day delay in the launch of the division that was to be mounted from Okinawa to invade southern Kyushu instead of to the entire operation?