Twilight of the Valkyries: A 20 July Plot TL

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I wonder how this will affect the Holocaust...

The July 20th groups had plans to send medical aid to the concentration camps as a part of Operation Valkyrie.

On a human interest note, the Franks haven't been betrayed at this point, so they would likely survive the war.
 
I wonder how this will affect the Holocaust...

Who knows. Bagration was in full swing and when that offensive ended Sjukovs armies were 200 km away from Auswitch. Maybe in this TL they are capable of advancing further with the Germans in a state of chaos and securing the camp in August already.

A successfull coup could also butterfly the Warsaw uprising to start earlier. It started on August 1st OTL
 
Apart from the sincerity of the intentions of the conspirators regarding the concentration camps...

I think that in this situation,in TTL there is an opportunity that to be achieved impede the continuation of the Nazi effort in the continuation of the Holocaust, in OTL...

These were under the control of the SS ... and it's very likely given that they were the armed wing of the Nazi Party and therefore it is most likely have the same fate as had the SA, of being on the losing side power struggle, that happened after the death of the Führer...in this situation if will happened a change in the fields keepers...
I guess and hope that it could be at least that would be expected an improvement in living conditions in them than under the SS rule and probably increase the chances of survival of those who were there and those sent there.

Although I guess and hope that given the political chaos that is living, by the Nazi leadership, raids and shipments of those who were trapped and / or were detained, to the concentration camps would be discontinued.

Of course it would be best that the whole system of concentration camps is removed and released all prisoners in them ... either by decision of the new German leaders or being captured the territory where are located by Allied troops.
 
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What is the reaction in Washington, London, Moscow, and even Tokyo to what's happening with the coup?
 
Part III: One People, One Reich, Three Führers?


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Martin Bormann, the master schemer of the court

July 20th to July 21st, 1944
Berlin Area
17:00 PM to 6:00 AM

Despite a complete takeover of Berlin by the plotters looking like a credible option as most commanders follow their orders and Goebbels is dead, the plotters don’t count on Himmler making a swift move by setting Otto Skorzeny loose. The fanatical SS officer rapidly bolsters his ranks with more SS units that are released or found and interrupts the advance of the Reserve Army, beginning to fight his way through via street fighting. While many key bureaucrats and ministers are now under heavy guard, key parts of the security services slip through the chaos one way or another. Skorzeny’s units reach the office of Walter Schellenberg early (with Schellenberg found behind his machine gun desk) [1], and the intelligence officer leaves to meet with Himmler as soon as possible. Müller, realizing Bormann’s other allies are also being imprisoned, disappears with several of his Gestapo units, planning to reach Guderian and the Panzer school formations with some luck. Skorzeny’s zeal in fighting the Reserve Army has caught Stauffenberg and the Bendlerstrasse officers by surprise, and the commando leader scores a major coup when the Regiment Hermann Goering switches sides and takes over Tegel Airport in support of the SS. While many SS commanders are captured by now, others resist in several buildings and continue to fire at the Reserve Army troops, turning the center of Berlin into a sniping zone as Skorzeny does his best to march on.

One of the few places not attacked by both sides is the Armaments Ministry, where Albert Speer has basically barricaded himself and his staff after learning of Hitler’s death. Speer, who barely avoided a nervous breakdown a few months ago, refuses to answer to further calls from the Bendlerstrasse after a conversation with General Fromm, to whom he grimly warns that he needs to reevaluate his support of a coup before it’s too late. In the meantime, more units begin to pour into Berlin as most of the radios and communication centers are taken over by the army. Crucial to the Valkyrie plans is the entrance of the Gross Deutschland Reserve Brigade of Colonel Stirius (from Cottbus), a much needed reinforcement in holding the SS back and raising morale amongst the men. And yet, as the night approaches it becomes clear that for anyone to overrun the other side they will need the armored forces of Guderian, as the General controls the Panzer cadets in Potsdam. Guderian has indeed put his forces into alert, putting Panzer units on the road and stopping them just short of entering the city, but after going for a walk after hearing the news of Hitler’s death he is out of reach [2]. Despite desperate attempts by Beck, Himmler and Bormann to reach him or persuade his subordinates into action, the panzer force remains steady.

In the Bendlerstrasse, most of the Berlin based conspirators are already in place giving orders. The main exceptions are Carl Goerdeler, who won’t be found until the next day (as he hides from the Gestapo) and General von Tresckow, who will receive orders from Beck that night and will take flight to Berlin under the nose of Field Marshal Model. More important in retrospect will be an order issued by Stauffenberg, ordering Colonel von Boeselager (key conspirator) to move his 3rd Cavalry Brigade (5,000 strong) west. Boeselager, currently near East Prussia, is given a key target: the Wolf’s Lair. In the meantime, the first radio message is sent around 7:00 PM and delivered by the recently arriving General Lindemann, announcing Hitler’s death, denouncing an SS coup and proclaiming the installation of a government led by General Beck. Fromm’s annoyance grows as it becomes clear the coup is actually badly planned when several Wehrkreis refuse to join and Himmler and Goering are free to lead a countercoup of their own, but at the moment Beck, Stauffenberg, Olbricht and company have turned a rapidly failing conspiracy into a credible chance to take over Germany. And yet, unless they can force a major change on the scramble for power, time may act against their side [3].

The Wolf’s Lair:
18:00 PM to 6:00 AM

As the news of the all-out war across Berlin by the SS and the Reserve Army continue to pour into the Wolf’s Lair, Goering dispatches Doenitz back to Hamburg to act as his representative in the zone and keep the Kriesgmarine units in line. In the meantime, informed by Hermann Müller of Himmler’s movements and reminded of the failures of the Reichsführer SS in preventing the assassination of Hitler, Bormann contemplates his situation. After careful consideration and reports of infighting increasing, he makes a fateful decision [4], informing Goering of Himmler’s “contacts” with elements opposed to the late Führer, and convincing the Reichsmarschall – who is all too glad to find an excuse to use against his rival – that an SS putsch is very much a reality. Against the objections of Ribbentrop, Goering has Rattenhuber and SS officers across the Wolf’s Lair arrested, turning over the SS communication lines to General Fellgiebel (which will only make it harder for Goering’s orders to get through). Pressed on by Bormann – and somewhat less hostile towards him due to having far greater concerns -, Goering decides to contact the Gauleiters and the Army Group commanders to try and secure both the party and the Wehrmacht. General Köller drafts a statement to be read across the radio denouncing an SS coup, which is promptly aired by the stations that can be reached. While limited on its broadcast, it will soon expand during the night and over the next day, and lead several commanders into following Valkyrie orders as far as the SS is concerned.

As Goering hurriedly tries to assemble his staff and prepare for an immediate seizure of power [5], the first radio messages from Berlin arrive during the night, denouncing an unnamed group of trying to take over Germany – strongly implied to be the SS – and declaring the sudden creation of the Beck and Goerdeler Government, with Witzleben as Supreme Commander. Goering has a fit of rage at the news, only made worse when he is informed of the occupation of Karinhall by Reserve Army troops and the arrest of several of his closest allies and officers. As the news continue to pour in with the SS rising in Prague and the growing instability within the Wehrkreise, Goering now has to fight what appears to be two different coups, and most attempts at communication end up in failure. Eventually, more radio dispatches are issued as communications become more fluid, and Goering directs a speech to the German people denouncing both the Beck Government and the SS, claiming his place as Hitler’s sole heir, and taking the bold step of announcing his intentions to move towards an end to the war [6].

By morning of the next day Goering has achieved his first breakthroughs, securing the support of Field Marshal Kesselring’s Army Group C, of Model’s Army Group Center – although Model makes it clear that there is absolutely no way units can be diverted from the Eastern Front – and a few of the Wehrkreises. Not feeling truly safe in the Wolf’s Lair after the attack and the arrest of the SS, Goering makes the fateful decision of departing through a larger city to lead the fight against Beck and Himmler. Entrusting Bormann with control of Rastenburg and dubitative between Munich or Hamburg, Goering makes his choice and boards a plane with Köller and other officers.

Occupied France:
16:00 PM to 8:00 AM

From Zossen, General Wagner sends a simple coded message to one of the conspirators, Colonel Finckh, in Paris. All the message says is “exercise finished”, the codename for Hitler’s successful assassination. Finckh rapidly takes the documents necessary to put Valkyrie orders for Paris in place, and contacts General Blumentritt (Chief of Staff, not a conspirator) and the Army Group B HQ in La Roche Guyon, being forced to leave a message for Field Marshal von Kluge at the hands of General Speidel. The news makes it way to Hotel Majestic and to General Carl-Heinrich von Stülpnagel, Military Governor of France and key member of the Valkyrie plotters. Stülpnagel informs his staff and gives the appropriate orders to secure the arrest of all SD and SS personnel through Paris, and then conferences for a few minutes with General Beck through telephone. As Beck informs him that Field Marshal von Kluge remains unconvinced and ambivalent, von Stülpnagel resolves to take immediate action and rides for La Roche Guyon by 7:00 PM.

Despite General Beck’s best attempts at swaying von Kluge, the Field Marshal continues to doubt Hitler’s demise, even attempting to contact the Wolf’s Lair several times without any results [7]. As more and more news begin to pour in from Berlin, several voices join urging him to act: General Speidel, General von Falkenhausen (military commander of Belgium) from Brussels, and even Blumentritt, who despite not being a member of the plot is convinced of the existence of the SS/Gestapo coup. Alas, it takes Stülpnagel’s arrival to La Roche Guyon for the officers to conference, eventually persuading the Field Marshal of the reality of Hitler’s death. Kluge resolves to act in consequence, cancelling preparations for a counteroffensive in Normandy and ordering Speidel to draft plans for an orderly withdrawal taking advantage of the temporary halt in the Allied advance. The main concern at the time remains the Waffen-SS units present on the battlefield, as they can’t arrest their commanders and risk the collapse of some of their best units. On the other hand, the Generals know Sepp Dietrich and other of the SS commanders openly distrust and even despise Himmler. Kluge orders Rommel to be put under a heavier guard, and resolves to conference with Dietrich the following morning. Von Stülpnagel, despite his misgivings against Kluge’s caution, returns to Paris [8].

At 11:00 PM the Paris garrison suddenly storms the SS and SD HQ and arrests all officers and men in sight, securing their surrender with no casualties and not a single shot fired. The situation, however, remains tense during the night, as Admiral Theodor Krancke gets hold of the radio dispatches from Goering and Himmler and denounces Beck and Stülpnagel as being behind the actual coup. Krancke threatens to release the SS troops with the thousand or so marines at his disposal, and he has to be taken into custody after a tense scene. As July 21st dawns on Paris, Stülpnagel and Kluge report to Berlin that the plotters can count on Paris and Army Group West. Their celebration is short-lived, however, as Bernay Hospital (where Rommel is recovering) reports that a company of Waffen-SS men has taken over the building under orders from General Sepp Dietrich.

Across the Wehrkreise and the Third Reich:
16:00 to 8:00 AM

In order for a coup or a countercoup to succeed, Reserve Army units and the military structure of the Wehrmacht inside Germany is crucial, and represented by the Wehrkreise (military districts). The level of organization of the plotters in each of the districts varies from support from the main commanders to a skeleton group of conspirators, and as the day develops and confusing grows the results are mixed at best. Having deployed most of their strength to take over Berlin, the Valkyrie plotters nonetheless secure the support of Wehrkreis II (Stettin), IV (Dresden), VI (Münster), IX (Kassel) and XI (Hannover), with Wehrkreis XI erupting in civil war as several officers attempt to declare for Goering anyway. On the other side, Goering is not more successful in gaining over districts in the first hours, only securing Wehrkreis I (Konigsberg), VII (Munich), X (Hamburg) and XVII (Salzburg), mostly thanks to early supporters like Grand Admiral Doenitz, Gauleiter Paul Giesler and General Julius Ringel. The rest of the Wehrkreis adopt a tentative “wait and see” strategy, although in virtually all of them the SS are arrested or forced into hiding as both Beck and Goering have basically proscribed them. This will have dramatic consequences in places like Poland, where Hans Frank’s arrest of the SS and takeover of the concentration camps leaves Warsaw virtually undefended.

A key element is the combined OKH/OKW in Zossen, where the decapitated staff of Keitel and Jodl is trying to get things back on trap to support the different fronts. Seconded by General Wagner and General Lindemann, Field Marshal von Witzleben makes his entrance on the HQ bringing the Valkyrie orders, and stating his new position of Supreme Wehrmacht Commander. The staff is torn on its reaction, but Witzleben assumed temporary command as he attempts to reach out to the Army Group commanders. Alas, Witzleben mostly receives non-committals or outright refusals from fellow commanders, Field Marshal Model even refusing to believe that Hitler is indeed dead. Tempted to leave for Berlin [9], Witzleben is nonetheless able to coordinate with the few Wehrkreises already behind the coup, and successfully orders General Friessner of Army Group North to commence an immediate withdrawal south to defend East Prussia and avoid an encirclement.

Vienna is a particularly successful instance for the coup, as General von Esebeck and Colonel Kodre take immediate action after being contacted at around 5:00 PM. Inviting the SS commanders to the HQ in Vienna, the officers actually surrender with no complains [10], and Gauleiter Baldur von Schirach is arrested while attempting to resist. A takeover of the rest of Austria seems unlikely at best, though, as the 24th Waffen SS Mountain division (1,000 strong), based on Linz, is put on alert by Himmler. Prague on the other hand, sees a most unexpected outcome. Realizing that the Heer units are actually outnumbered by the SS due to the presence of the SS-Oberabschnitt Böhmen-Mähren, General Ferdinand Schaal attempts to obey the Valkyrie orders with caution and delays. The Minister President and SS General Karl Frank, alerted by Himmler, reacts faster, sending men to capture Schaal and Reich Protector Frick. Gun fighting ensues through Prague during most of the afternoon and night, leading to Frick’s capture by the SS and Schaal’s death when a grenade is tossed into his office. By morning, Frank reports to Himmler that Prague, and by extension most of Bohemia-Moravia, is SS-held territory.

By 7:00 PM, radio announcements are spreading through Germany, the Valkyrie ones having an advantage for a few minutes over those of Goering, and several hours before SS broadcasts can be put in place from Prague. While the death of Hitler is undisputed and spreads quickly through Germany (and the Allies), by the time July 21st dawns the inner Third Reich stands confused as Goering, Beck and Himmler have all accused each other of being behind the assassination of the Führer, with Himmler bearing the worst part due to Bormann’s manipulation of Goering and his own recklessness in deploying Skorzeny in Berlin. The plotters have found success in Paris, Vienna, some of the Wehrkreises and most of Berlin, numbers favoring them against Skorzeny and the SS troops. Goering has mobilized some tentative support from parts of the Wehrmacht and the Party, and Himmler, while badly damaged on his powerbase due to the consequences of Valkyrie and the machinations of Bormann, can still draw on several SS units still active through Germany and his newfound haven in Prague as he frantically tries to contact the main Waffen-SS commanders.

Germany wakes up the day after Hitler’s death with three prospective leaders.
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Notes for Part III:

[1] The more you read… yeah, Schellenberg also knew a plot was going to take place and did nothing. Here Skorzeny finds him first, and therefore he has no option to join Himmler. Schellenberg is a fascinating character, though, he will play an interesting part in events to come.
[2] It sounds incredible, but Guderian did go into a walk that afternoon. And suspiciously enough, he only returned from it when it became clear the coup had failed and it was obvious he had to deploy his force against the Valkyrie plotters. That day Goebbels was even convinced Guderian was a part of the plot, perhaps even a key leader on it. Consider then that Guderian had been contacted five days ago by the plotters and said nothing, and furthermore, that Olbricht prevented several units under Guderian to leave for the Eastern Front to leave them in Berlin, and the picture of Guderian’s loyalties becomes less clear… I’m not saying which way Guderian will go yet, but the options are more open than what it seems.
[3] By this point the coup is already a lot more successful than it ever came close to being in OTL, but it’s still deeply, deeply flawed. Far from being the Wehrmacht against the SS, it still remains a group of Reserve Army officers and a few commanders trying to use loyalty to Hitler to secure the Government against Goering and Himmler. Not a very easy task, even if the alternatives are so deeply flawed in the eyes of the country.
[4] Bormann’s position is an interesting one, as he’s probably hated by virtually all sides and his allies are dead or about to be sidelined. He could try and broker a truce between Himmler and Goering to deal with the coup, but Bormann is a schemer by nature and he is also unaware of the scope of the conspiracy. As a result, his penchant for scheming and his emotional distress overrule his common sense, and he chooses to play both the would-be Führers against each other. Needless to say, it won’t end pretty.
[5] I suspect some may think the pacing is a bit too fast and people are jumping into action too quickly, but I can’t help but to think this situation could easily lead to this sort of chaos. Given the character of the people involved and the methods they used to secure their influence… well, I just can’t see an orderly succession to Hitler if he’s blown off and there’s a coup in the same day.
[6] Of course, Goering’s idea of peace doesn’t have to be a “realistic one”. The man was shocked not to be treated as a guest of honor when captured IOTL.
[7] Kluge’s attitude on July 20 seems almost comical for me, changing sides at least four times that day and switching his mood even more. No reason for him to be more assertive yet, so Stülpnagel still has to go and save the day for the Valkyrie plotters.
[8] Unlike OTL, Kluge has not been able to contact the Wolf’s Lair and Keitel is dead anyway, which means there are no contrary reports to Hitler’s death. Much like Fromm, I believe Kluge would join the plot in this context, if conditionally.
[9] IOTL, Witzleben was so disgusted from the chaos at Zossen that he left to the Bendlerstrasse and then abandoned the coup. Here, despite the mistakes included in Valkyrie is somewhat more successful, and therefore remains at Zossen.
[10] This, believe it or not, is OTL. They even ceased complaining after von Esebeck supplied them with cigars and brandy…
 
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This is absolutely excellent. It'll be fascinating to see how long it takes for the Allied high commands and chanceries- western and eastern- to get any handle on the situation.
 
Thanks for the comments and feedback! Having settled on a more or less clear update for the conflict, I really look forward to writing what comes next, including a severe reduction of the current cast...

What is the reaction in Washington, London, Moscow, and even Tokyo to what's happening with the coup?

I will cover this in an update later on (the first eight or so parts will be focused on Germany alone until a "winner" more or less emerges, and then we will take a look at the rest of the world). As of the current moment, London has known of Hitler's death since 6:30 PM or so, the rest of the Allies and the German diplomatic service learning through the night. There is no offical reaction yet given the confusion, but at the very least Churchill and company are toasting to Hitler's death.
 
An excellent update -- your knowledge shines through in painting these alternate reactions to the Valkyrie plot.

Of all the foreign reactions, I look forward to Stalin the most. On the one hand, the Svyaschennaya Voyna looks even better than before, so maybe he'll push for a continued war. On the other hand, he was paranoid and cautious, so he may not take what he sees as gambles...
 
Cool update. A very fluid situation and still lots more possibilities for more betrayels and counter coups.
 
How Many troops does each side control ,where is Rommel and what going on with D-day?

That, I'm afraid, is the area in which my limited research failed. We know the Reserve Army could mobilize around 2 to 3 million men on paper, but then again most of its formation either were unsuitable for actual combat or had inflated numbers. While a formidable force in terms of establishing temporary control over some areas of Germany, all I could find was a book on the Reserve Army that turned out to have several misconceptions and wrong data. Same with the SS, we know they had severe manpower issues in July 1944, but I couldn't find the actual formations or truly accurate numbers (if anybody has data on that, I would really appreciate it). Anyway, because of this, while I could identify some formations in position to be around, I can't give actual numbers at the moment.

Rommel is currently at a hospital in France recovering from his wounds in an air attack on July 17th. By the last update, SS troops under Sepp Dietrich have taken over the place, leading Kluge and Stülpnagel to fear that Rommel might become a hostage to the SS. In any case, Rommel will most certainly show up eventually, in a key role I have in mind.

As to D-Day, actual operations were less intense in Normandy by 20 July due to Allied fatigue and bad weather, but the Brittany front should be a lot more active. We'll be looking at Normandy once I get through the first parts of the TL, but one thing I can say is that Operation Lüttich has been butterflied away.
 
I've been waiting for somebody to write a Valkyrie timeline in this kind of detail and with a realistic appreciation of the extreme difficulties faced by the plotters for ages now. And I have to say it's looking great so far - kudos to you.

Guderian, I suspect, will jump whichever way looks likely to turn out best for Guderian. Even if he sides with the plotters, though, they'd be fools to trust him too much, I think.

Ditto Speer!

I think Dietrich is actually more likely to be trying to protect Rommel rather than take him hostage - he seems to have had a genuine liking and respect for him. And if anyone can convince Dietrich to throw in his lot with Kluge and co-conspirators...

Trying to organise an orderly withdrawal in the West, with morale shaky and Operation Cobra about to be unleashed...good luck, "Clever Hans!"
 
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