To the Victor, Go the Spoils

[TheReformer]

In story it stated that the British were focusing on bringing down the Ottomans for more gains. Germany's already out of the fight having gain it's desire, Austria-Hungary cannot go on anymore so it evens out.

This reminds me actually, I ought to do an update on the whole Balkan situ. I'll add that to my AH update.

Also, Germany might sound exhausted but I haven't specified that they've withdrawn troops from anywhere yet - the Central Powers do have the manpower, materiel and more importantly, the morale advantage in the Macedonian front. But more on that later.

 

[Godwin]

Well Ref, having finally taken the time to properly read this through, I have to say great work man. I'm quite impressed how you've managed to make Germany's demands on France simultaneously both punitive and lenient, giving some insight into Germany's domestic turmoil. If you don't mind or have the specifics worked out just yet, I'd be interested in having a conversation over the United States' role and future following its white peace with Germany.
Sorry to everyone else for the ping.

 

[TheReformer]

Le Conseguenze​

The Man of the moment in Italy in late 1918 was Costantino Lazzari. A radical socialist artisan from the 'Massimalisti', or Maximalist faction, Lazzari was a 61-year-old Trade Unionist from Cremona, and one of the three founders of the Italian Socialist Party. He had long been the leader of the 'Revolutionary' wing of the PSI, and had led the party throughout the war after his election to the leadership in 1912. Yet unlike some of his revolutionary colleagues, he was not a man who advocated for Italy entering the war, unlike men like Benito Mussolini. No, he feared the impact of the war on Italy - and he was right to do so. The war tore Italy to shreds; its strategy in the conflict had been abysmally executed with repeated disasters that left much of Veneto occupied, and even if Italy had pulled off one or two successes, nobody remembered them now. What had once been an extremely popular plan to intervene on the Entente's side, had quickly become a deeply unpopular decision in the country when suddenly what seemed to be a glorious and triumphant plan to take land proved to be a defensive and enormously costly conflict. Further, the war tore apart the Socialist party, with the 'National Syndicalists' revolutionary faction believing Italy should enter and liberate Italian speaking peoples in Dalmatia and Slovenia, while the majority of the party urged caution and peace. Throughout the conflict, with many being deployed to the front anyway, Lazzari had expelled or culled many of the National Syndicalists from the party, weakening his own position partially but strengthening the Socialists' hand when ultimately Italy proved to have chosen the wrong side. With Liberal Union leader Vittorio Emanuele Orlando having resigned and many-times Prime Minister Giovanni Giolitti having formed a new Government, the new Prime Minister aimed to conclude a favourable peace given was the man who negotiated an alliance pact with the Central Powers prior to the war. Yet now with the PSI having been proven right, the King having damaged his credibility, and the country being deeply indebted, economically starved and full of angry unemployed soldiers, Lazarri finally had his chance to make some kind of move - he just had to get it right.

On June 9th 1918, at 11AM Berlin time, the armistice with the Central Powers officially came into effect. This was a crushing moment for most Italians; a hallmark of utter national failure in a conflict where they paid an enormous, unimaginable price in human losses for literally no gain. In the northern worker cities of Turin, and Milan with massive industrial centres, men laid down their tools immediately and refused to turn up to work the next day, while 'Factory Councils' began emerging almost immediately across the north. The now one million strong General Confederation of Labour had called on workers to begin a general strike the day before, and across the country they obliged in their droves. Thousands marched down the streets of Milan, Genoa, Turin, Rome, Bologna, Florence and even Foggia in the south - ordinarily a traditionalist and conservative region. Unrest was not even exclusively confined to the cities either; across the Padan plain in the north, agricultural workers in their hundreds of thousands were members of the GCL, and also laid down their tools and began peasant strikes. Now, if ever there was a time, was when the radicals would choose to strike.

That same afternoon a meeting attended by National Syndicalist figures like Alceste De Ambris, Trade Unionists like Armando Borghi of the Unione Sindacale Italiana and Bruno Buozzi of the Federation of Metallurgical Workers Employees, and even Italian Republican Party leader Salvatore Barzilai - despite opposition to his attendance by long time party leader Napoleone Colajanni. Costantino Lazzari of the PSI, who led the meeting, later addressed the raging crowd that evening and declared that the Government no longer held the best interests of their people at heart, blaming them for both the failure of the war and failure to address the calls for land reform in the country. Focusing his attention on the broken and inept political system more than anything but lightly implicating the King for his ultimately coerced decision to declare war on behalf of Italy, an act he took only after months of political failure and domestic divisions in Italy, Lazzari declared that he and the other involved parties would form a new, Republican Government in Turin. Thus, the Italian Civil War had begun.

To call what followed anything other than a Civil War would be unfair, despite it being labelled as a 'revolution' by some historians. In reality, despite being the man to push Italy into a war that it ultimately lost, a vast segment of the population were supportive of the King, who had visited bombed villages, injured soldiers and often attended to matters on the frontline, having left for the front the day after declaring war and more recently firing the despised Army chief Luigi Cadorna. In fact, some records suggest that the broad consensus among Italians after the armistice was that the Monarchy should remain - yet there was no realistic political opposition that would retain the King, while the political establishment of the country had seen its legitimacy get decimated by conflict - even in the eyes of the King, who fell out with members of the aristocracy and ruling elite as a consequence of the country's seeming boundless failure in the war. Yet, the beginning of the crisis in June would seem exceptionally one-sided, as the Italian Army virtually dissolved in the space of two weeks. With demobilization before July 1st being required as part of the San Michele Al Tagliamento armistice terms anyway, millions of Italians at arms were sent home at once over the period of a matter of weeks, many simply bringing their weapons with them for personal protection, to sell or otherwise. Despite his popularity as a commander among the men, the new commander of the Army Gen. Armando Diaz struggled to resolve this issue, instead simply allowing the 'melting' of his army to continue while gathering resources and supplies into smaller areas and among loyalist regiments which, to the surprise of outside observers, did actually exist. These men tended to come from the more conservative south of the country, particularly around the cities of Naples, Salerno and Palermo, which were more agrarian, traditional and religious - with even the Sicilian Mafia actively rounding up Marxists in parts of the island such as Marsala for intimidation to maintain order. Diaz would initially see that the units that were demobilized first were from the north of the country, ensuring that some kind of pro-Government military was retained that could guard the frontier with Austria while peace negotiations were sought, and that could suppress civil unrest in the north of the country, before assembling his forces around Bologna in the Emilia-Romagna, where he put down pro-Republican civil unrest on June 18th.

Diaz's strategy would quickly prove ineffective at quelling the new Republican Government, largely because while his military could dismantle republican militias, they could not compel workers to pick up their tools again. Advances by the Royal Army towards Milan proved difficult and slow, with pro-republican groups destroying bridges as the army advanced to slow them, attacking their lines of supply often, and sometimes ambushing royal units in the hills where they attempted to advance into firmly Republican Tuscany. The Republican militia; made up primarily of experienced former soldiers, highly experienced left-wing agitators, and motivated peasants or workers, rarely made a clear conventional stand against the Royal Army - an intentional plan that meant the army could never clearly defeat them until they were ready. This would change when units loyal to the Government reached the town of Piacenza, where Militia forces had dug in extensively and prepared to resist the Royalist advance. If Piacenza could be held, the Royalist forces, limited in number by the Armistice terms and due to the fact most pro-monarchist soldiers wanted to go home and had left active service, would risk becoming overstretched as they advanced to Milan - and their southern flank would be dangerously exposed to any potential counterattack due to their failure to push through the Apennines into Tuscany. Thus when they reached the city on July 3rd, they were met with trench works, machine guns and even some artillery - a far more formidable force than they had previously faced - and remarkably the Republican forces prevailed. Unwilling to lose enormous numbers of men in one town, Gen. Diaz instead opted to simply to bypass the settlement and threaten its rear by capturing the more easily taken Cremona, and then simply moving to the rear of the town - cutting its link to Milan and advancing on to Pavia. Thus, the republican forces, while hardly defeating the Royalists in an engagement, managed to delay the Royal Army by a week in their advance on Milan, and left a vast exposed wing of the Royal forces along the Apennines and Po River. The question now was, how would/could they respond to the advances of a better-prepared army?

In the Republican occupied parts of Italy; Tuscany, Milan and Savoy, the political situation was not promising. Having inherited no real base of administration, the new Government largely was run by the 'official' leadership made up primarily of PSI deputies and other republican representatives that had joined the Government to form the so-called 'Republican Parliament' at Turin, complimented by a host of representatives that sat on the 'Republican Council' in Milan made up of Trade Unionists, Militia leaders and representatives of the various Factory Councils in the northern cities. These two bodies vied for legitimacy and authority over the revolt, though the established leadership in the Republican Parliament started in a much stronger position. Inheriting the local authorities of the Kingdom, the Republican Parliament under a 'National Revival' coalition led by Costantino Lazzari soon found that while administering the country using existing structures was easy enough, having the Republican Council proved more of a hindrance than a boon. Workers across the north were intentionally striking, and many had even picked up rifles or formed militias to defend their cities, but as such nobody was working as those same workers had no established alternative structure for pay and employment in their factories. In this, the Factory Councils soon proved somewhat beneficial, with workers electing foremen and representatives that the Republican Council then negotiated pay and other boons with in order to get their employees back in the factories. As such, by the middle of July, the Republican economy was slowly but surely chugging along, though not anywhere near what could be called efficiently, which presented Lazzari a new problem; how to fight off the Royal Army. Initially, Lazzari's approach had been to try and re-form units of the Royal Army and establish a standing armed force, which primarily came out of concern that a militia-dependent military would suffer the same fate as the Socialists in France with Paris having fallen in early July and the entire revolution having crumbled. Recruitment facilities were established in all the major cities, and sympathetic soldiers from the front soon joined the cause and were assigned to units. This soon proved difficult though, with the bulk of the army mainly wanting to go home and soldiers being more loyal to local militia commanders that carried their respect from previous roles on the front rather than supporting the structure of a new Republican army. As such by the time the Royal Army began it's Milan offensive in late June, the Republican army was largely a disorganized mob of various units under charismatic commanders from the war, militia groups led by particularly violent or loud workers representatives, and some 'official' units that the Government had established which had little real leadership material and experience even if they had better logistics. This left the republic with more of a rabble than an army, which would be directed towards points in the frontline by politicians with little military experience and only a vague semblance of strategy. Here, the Republican Council truly began to shine, in the form of Lazzari's opponents in the National Syndicalists.

Making his name known through his patriotic speeches, previous fame and sudden surprising support for the Republican cause, one man soon began to gather much support on the Republican Council; Gabriele D'Annunzio. In hindsight, D'Annunzio was not a very capable military leader, but he was a fantastic orator and could lead men well - even if the direction of said leadership tended to be erratic, disorganized and uncertain. He had gained a cult-like following among fellow soldiers in the aftermath of the Truce on June 9th when, rather than surrendering his aircraft to the Austrians as commander of the 87th fighter squadron as part of the Truce terms, he instead ordered all his pilots to force-crash their aircraft into the Padan valley to prevent their capture. D'Annunzio had arrived in Milan shortly after, and soon found himself gathering a significant following that only began to grow more rapidly as the Royal Army under Diaz approached the city, allowing him to form his own 'club' of political radicals among the Republican Council, largely built around the National Syndicalist movement that had urged Italy to join the war. Gathering the support of Factory Council leaders too, along with the backing of numerous militia leaders who respected his service including Benito Mussolini's Camicie Nere, D'Annunzio used the advance on Milan as an opportunity to gain personal glory, personally leading a force of over a thousand men in the town of Piacenza where he quickly stumbled into a leadership role more out of respect than actual ability. Lacking strong commanders, with revolutionary Nicola Bombacci having been 'leading' the Republican military as Minister of Defence up until this point as the head of an elected council of militia commanders, increasing pressure began to build on Lazzari during early July to establish a central military hierarchy that was not simply made up of inexperienced parliamentarians or former rabble-rousers, ultimately leading to him inviting D'Annunzio to become 'Marshal of the Republic' on July 12th under Bombacci's de-jure command. While this was initially meant as more of a political or ceremonial role to allow Lazzari's own allies to conduct the war while more experienced men fought it, D'Annunzio soon began making his own appointments of individuals including Benito Mussolini, Attilio Teruzzi, Edmondo Rossoni, Rodolfo Graziani and Michele Bianchi to his own personal 'General Staff', having formed close ties with them over the previous month who became de-facto superiors to the Militia Council.

The Republic was arguably saved by the central powers in early July though when, having sat down for negotiations with Central Powers negotiators at Zurich on June 17th, the Italian Government was forced to sign a Treaty of Peace with the Central Powers on July 8th. The Treaty, which took Central Powers negotiators three weeks to agree upon - the longest of any Treaty due to the vested interests of both Ottoman, Austrian and German parties on the outcome of Italian negotiations, would arguably be harsher than the French, Belgian and American Treaty at Brussels. In Zurich, Italy would be forced to pay significant compensation to the Central Powers Governments, a step further than they demanded from the French who the Germans had instead forced into economic arrangements as 'most favoured nation' for trade status - setting up Mitteleuropa under German leadership. Yet, with Austria in chaos due to the consequences of the war, and with northern Italy in revolt, the Central Powers instead sought to seek monetary compensation rather than un-enforceable treaties and economic arrangements. Italy would be required to pay five billion Gold Francs in damages in the form of any means of compensation; from naval vessels and aircraft to livestock and coal, while additionally abandoning their control of the island of Rhodes and the surrounding islands, and returning the province of Libya to Turkish control. Further, Italy would surrender claims over Dalmatia and Albania, and most significantly, Italy would be required to surrender the entire region of Veneto to Austria-Hungary for a period of 25 years, after which a referendum would be held on its legal status under Austrian terms. For most Italians, this was a shocking set of demands that cast Italy as a far greater participant in the conflict than it actually was, though the terms were more than anything inspired mainly by Austrian desires to demonstrate a clear purpose for the conflict to their people and finance Austrian recovery. Italian Foreign Minister Tommaso Tittoni would reluctantly sign the treaty, annihilating the popularity of the Giovanni Giolitti Government and prompting Francesco Saverio Nitti to take over as Prime Minister on July 17th after a brief period of political instability in the country. A member of the Radical Party, the Radicals themselves had been internally split by the declaration of a Republic in the north, with party leader Ettore Sacchi only managing to convince a small plurality of the party to oppose the rising led by the extreme factions of the PSI despite the Radical party's Republican beliefs on the basis that they were already in power with Francesco Nitti being the Finance minister at the time. As such, his appointment as Prime Minister came as an attempt to unify the country by appointing a sympathetic leader who was popular among many in Lombardy, the heart of the rebellion, and also was a southerner with strong ties to the Agricultural ministry - eliciting the sympathies of the southern peasantry whom he promised land reform for. Unfortunately despite these promises, Republican politicians saw the masses flock to their side in cities as far south as Foggia where previous demonstrations had turned into riots and militia risings, along with further agricultural strikes by the angered peasant class that supported Costantino Lazzari's decision to oppose the Treaty, and his promises of agricultural reform as had long been sought throughout the country. This quickly began to threaten the balance of the fine rope Royalist forces had been walking keeping the country in line, and many soldiers of the still serving conscript army retained from southern parts of the country to resist Republican advances now began to question their loyalties. The immediate effect of this would be that the Milan offensive would grind to a halt, if not due to sudden lack of motivation - then because workers in the region refused to supply the army and continuously sabotaged their supply lines, redirecting trains, destroying telephone cables and burning crops.

Having failed to take Milan, Royalist commander Armando Diaz opted to secure the frontline for a later offensive to buy time to build resources, which required him to remove the salient into Tuscany the Republicans had held since the declaration of the Republic. On July 20th, two divisions of the Italian Royal Army pivoted south and broke through the weak Republican lines at Borgo San Lorenzo, advancing on Florence the next day. This proved a shock to the Republicans, who quickly began to see the threat to the revolution posed by the small but nonetheless well equipped and well-motivated Royal Army as it swept through and quickly pacified much of Tuscany. The new General staff soon proved their worth, finally carrying the respect of militia commanders who now saw the need for a more effective fighting force, combined with the improved logistics on the administrative side of the war due to Lazarri's factory re-organization, with the structure provided by the experienced officers now in charge who all were now exclusively devoted to the defeat of the increasingly successful Royal Army under Armando Diaz. Throughout July, the existing Republican Army began to absorb militia structures as low-level militia commanders were offered important commanding positions, or convinced to join the official army in exchange for bribes, political office or just out of respect for D'Annunzio; in effect abandoning the 'elective leadership' style of before in favour of a more rigid military hierarchy. These reforms were largely introduced through the work of the General Staff, which began to refer to itself as the 'Gran Consiglio dei Fasci' or 'Grand Council of the Fasces' in reference to Benito Mussolini's 'Fasces' concept that began to dominate Republican military thought and spirit, with the Fasces as the 'vanguard' of the revolution. D'Annunzio naturally took credit for all of this, acting as the ineffective but ever-present face of the Military whose speeches to the Parliament and more often than that, the Republican Council, aided the army in gathering resources.

The army faced its first real challenge nearly a month later in early August 1918 when, impatient due to the loss of lands in Tuscany and driven by the urge to 'act' as D'Annunzio often felt he must, D'Annunzio pushed the army into launching its first offensive on August 14th. Labelled the 'Ferragosto Offensive' by Republican propagandists in reference to the Roman Emperor Augustus' still celebrated August festival when much of the offensive took place, Republican forces sought to use the flat plains of the Padan valley to their advantage in order to secure the north and remove the threat to Milan. With Royal forces demotivated and stretched out, the bulk of Royal forces had been consolidated near Milan in preparation for their own offensive against the city set to take place three days after. Republican forces capitalized on the army's forward deployments and crashed into the Royal Army that had been deployed offensively - providing them little to no defence-in-depth and enabling Italian Republican forces to punch a large hole in the Royalist frontline near the city of Brescia, allowing their now better equipped and better-organized army to unravel the Royal Army's defensive line, driving Royal forces back as far as Parma and south of the Po river. For the Royalists, this was an embarrassing and surprising defeat that once again left the Government reeling for credibility in the public eye, resulting in Prime Minister Nitti's 'Nitti Decree' on August 20th, pledging to reform the electoral system into a proportional system, the redistribution of land among the peasantry through the creation of a new 'prefects system' that assigned new land to veterans and peasants in agrarian associations for four-year contracts, and the creation of a 'Veterans Pension' system that would financially support Veterans and particularly those wounded or disabled by the conflict. These reforms proved popular among the population, but ultimately would be implemented extremely poorly, with the land redistribution process proving extremely slow, triggering peasant riots throughout even the southern parts of the country and re-occupied Tuscany throughout late September through to October.

In the north meanwhile, the Republican Government celebrated its first real military victory with D'Annunzio inadvertently starting an internal political crisis by referring to himself as 'Il Duce' or 'the Leader' in what the Republican Parliament saw as a brazen attempt to claim supremacy in the Republican political establishment, while D'Annunzio largely appears to have just found the term more fitting due to his own personal perception of his humility in office. In reality though, Parliamentary concern was not unwarranted as the Army, despite having only really had one victory and still having lost Tuscany with much of the country still in Royalist hands, constantly sought to gain greater political authority. With the military having fully cemented their new structure and National Syndicalists having gained a far greater platform through the appointment of D'Annunzio, the Republicans were looking to be increasingly reliant on their military which itself was growing to dominate the political system through the charisma and necessity of its leaders to the Republican cause. While this was not a significant problem now, with Lazzari still remaining firmly in control of the politics of the new administration, the dependence of this new Republic on its now National Syndicalist dominated military posed a question on the minds of many in the Republic; was this a military or civilian revolution?

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For those who did not notice, by the way, I have amended the timeline marginally to no longer have King Vittorio Emanuelle III abdicate on advice from someone more knowledgeable about the era in Italy than me! The previous statement in the first post that suggested he did has been amended, and outside of this, the lore remains the same. Also, no graphic! 😱 alas I am at my family home at the moment and thus do not have access to my very pretty graphic I have 90% finished for this update, so that'll come next week. Hope you enjoyed the update, took an absurd amount of reading but gotta say I'm getting very pleased with the research I'm putting into these next few coming updates. Austria-Hungary and Germany next...

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Really great to see this back. I continue to enjoy your writing style and the asthetic you've chosen for the timeline. The detailed events are quite plausible (moreso than in my own TL) and really capture the social issues faced by Italy in OTL-- and which defeat would doubtless have magnified tenfold. One wonders if some of Italy's component parts might decide to go their own way- while that's a common trope in CP Victory TLs, I think the way you have it set up here makes that reasonably plausible.

Also, question: how's the Pope taking this? In OTL the Catholic Church had extremely poor relations with the Kingdom of Italy (IIRC they deemed voting a mortal sin for a number of years!). Might the Papal States try and ressurect themselves, or at least throw their soft power (worth hundreds of divisions ) behind one faction? Regardless, well-done on an excellent update.

 

[TheReformer]

while that's a common trope in CP Victory TLs

Yes I can say that division of Italy into pieces won't be happening ittl, I just don't find the circumstances likely.

how's the Pope taking this

The two states had awful relationships as you accurately point out, but equally, from an outsider's perspective, the nuances of the Italian conflict are quite complex. For example, this is a Republican revolution but led by Socialists. This would leave the Pope certainly hesitant to hope that either side wins, as the reality is the political nuances of each side are quite in flux - through a Pope will always see Secularist ideologies of the left as a greater threat than the right, and thus it's likely he is uncertainly watching from the sidelines low key hoping the Kingdom wins.

 

[Sceonn]

Would Germany sit back and let this unfold in Italy? A Republican victory means no reparations or ratified peace treaty.

 

[TheReformer]

Update Schedule

-- Chapter One: The Summer Anarchy --

The Kaiserschlacht
Defeat of the Entente and the Aftermath

The Summer Anarchy Begins
The Immediate Consequences of War

Peace in Our Time?
The Treaty of Brussels

The Summer Crisis
France in 1918

Le Conseguenze
Italy in 1918

Völkermanifest
Austria Hungary, Bulgaria & Germany in 1918

Peace With Honour
Turkey, Japan, Britain and her Empire in 1918

The Fringes
Russia and the United States in 1918

The New Order
The end of the Summer Anarchy in Europe​

I've added somewhat of a 'timeline' plan for those curious what comes next btw to a previous post, tis now threadmarked and will be updated over time. Glad to see people are enjoying the update!

 

[Octosteel]

I'm particularly interested to see how the inevitable battle between the SocDems and the Fatherland Front will go. Excited to see more and exquisitely written while still being easy to read!

 

[Josephus]

No Vaterländische Front yet, it's still the Christlichsoziale

 

[PrincessOfChina]

This is great

 

[TheReformer]

THE ITALIAN CIVIL WAR
The White Advance to Milan
(June - July 1918)​

The Graphic for the previous update, as promised! Also, the next update, Volkermanifest, may have to come as two parts as it's already 5000 words...

 

[TheReformer]

Völkermanifest
Part One​

In May 1919, Mahatma Gandhi wrote in his Satyagraha Leaflet no.13 that "Victory attained by violence is tantamount to a defeat, for it is momentary". Despite being unrelated to the context of the quote, no quote better fits the impact of the Great War on one of its victors, the Austro-Hungarian Empire. In June 1918, with France having thrown in the towel and Italy, Belgium and the Americans having quickly followed suit, the deadliest front of the Austrian War effort had drawn to a close, and it couldn't have come a day sooner. To call the country a disaster would have been optimistic, Austria-Hungary was on the verge not just of tearing into pieces, but essentially of total social collapse. Food had become beyond scarce with the streets of Vienna devoid of life bar people queueing in lines outside the city's many rationing points, while citizens across the empire began to actively desert urban areas in order to hunt food rather than starve to death at home. In cities like Pressberg, once a majority German city, Slovak citizens of the Empire increasingly clashed with their German counterparts in an example of ethnic strife due to rapidly changing demographics that was repeated across the Empire, from Illyria to Bohemia and Innsbruck to Lemberg. Had the war gone on merely a matter of months longer, the frontline would have collapsed entirely excluding some Austrian and German divisions, but now the Emperor had one shot at making it right, failure would cost him his crown, and the unity of a seven hundred-year-old joint monarchy - and he knew it.

Yet the first big change in the region would not come in Austria-Hungary, but Bulgaria. Faced with the sudden withdrawal of French forces in the Macedonian theatre, the Bulgaro-German 61st Corps of the German 11th army under von Steuben sensed an opportunity and pressed their advantage against the significantly weakened Greek Army in the centre of the Macedonian front near Mount Sokol. The operation, timed perfectly so as to not give the Greeks time to better secure their frontline with the deployment of further British forces while allowing French forces to move to the rear, caught the exposed and overstretched Greek forces in the centre of the Macedonian line off guard, and allowed the German-led and Bulgarian supported forces to drive a wedge into the Greek line towards the town of Vodena. Soon after, the Bulgarian 1st Army under Nerezov soon joined the offensive, which met stiff resistance from the Greeks but ultimately was simply too much for the frontline to bear. Greek forces, demoralized by the abandonment of the front by the French, and tired of a long Greek involvement in a conflict a significant portion of the populace had not sought to get involved with, soon lost resolve and broke, beginning an almost endless withdrawal into the rear. By June 23rd, only two days after the beginning of the offensive, the British Salonika Army is ordered to prepare for evacuation to Cyprus and abandons its frontline against the Bulgarian 2nd Army in order to defend the city of Thessalonika in pre-prepared defences.

With French forces having essentially conquered the country in the name of Venizelos by threatening to shell Athens, the sudden withdrawal of all Allied forces from the country left an opportunity for opponents of Venizelos, and as such four days later, on June 27th, the British decision to withdraw was re-affirmed when officers loyal to Former King Constantine of Greece executed a coup against the Venizelos Government in Athens. The King, who had spent the last year in Switzerland following his forced deposition by the Venizelos Government and France, was extremely popular among certain elements of Greek society; especially the 'old Greeks' of the Peloponnese and Central Greece. Whereas Venizelos' support base was largely based around 'New Greece' in the Agean islands and northern lands. With most of his allies having been expelled to Corsica or held under house arrest during Venizelos' rule, Constantine found unlikely but willing conspirators in Venizelos' own Army in the form of deputy chief of the general staff Georgios Leonardopoulos, a staunch Royalist, along with Panagiotis Gargalidis, Commander of the 35th Infantry Regiment. Both men had been supporters of Venizelos prior to the defeat of France, but with their foreign allies crushed and the northern front shattered by the advances of the Germans and Bulgarians, the once admired Prime Minister Venizelos' suddenly seemed like a fool. From day one, the King had said that the war would be won by Germany - and nonetheless, it was, even despite Greece having been offered lands to join with Germany rather than fight her at the expense of Albania and Italy.

For many officers, the war now seemed a waste that would cost Greece dearly, and they chose to act. Under the leadership of Leonardopoulos, several Infantry commanders including Gargalidis, and forcefully retired Officer Anastasios Papoulas, rallied loyal forces from the front and boarded a train in the late evening of the 27th. Travelling rapidly towards the capital, the several hundred men under their command, along with Royalist militias and even members of the Athens police force seized the rail station in Athens just before midnight and quickly fanned out across the capital. King Alexander was awoken and evacuated from his residence, before being rushed to the portside in order to evacuate him with loyal forces to Crete, but his car was halted during the journey by a roadblock and he was arrested by Royalist forces. With the radio station in Royalist hands, along with most of the entrances to the city and the key Government buildings, a broadcast was sent across the nation informing the country and all friendly military officers across it that the Venizelos had been overthrown, and that an emergency Government under former Prime Minister Dimitrios Rallis would be established to secure a favourable peace, and invite King Constantine to return to his rightful throne that had been taken through a 'foreign deposition'. Citizens of old Greece awoke to the news early in the morning and celebrations were reported across the country's heartlands, inspiring army units and garrisons to quickly recognize the new administration. King Alexander would abdicate the throne under duress soon after, while exiled King Constantine, though he would take several weeks to return in person, accepted the throne via telegram later that day, with a later referendum in late July affirming the decision with a vote of 99% supporting the restoration - clearly in no way a fabricated result. For Venizelos, the war was lost, and the nerve centre of the country was too. While he had personally escaped the capital by boat with a sympathetic Navy guiding him to Crete, the loss of the King, the heartlands and the clear defeat of Greece in the conflict - largely the fault of her allies, meant there was no hope. He was left in a politically impossible, and as such he opted to bide his time rather than fight the new regime. Demanding that the Liberals be given permission to compete in free and fair elections, Venizelos offered to personally enter exile in return for abandoning his legitimacy in the role - an offer that was reluctantly accepted by the Royalist Government given the situation and Venizelos' control of the navy.

In the north, a Triumvirate of Generals including Nikolaos Plastiras, Theodoros Pangalos and Georgios Kondylis refused to accept the new situation and sought to overcome the new administration. Labelling the coup an illegal deposition, they rallied three divisions of the Hellenic Army from the front in the I Army Corps, having been driven from Thessaloniki and began a march on Athens. Unfortunately for the Triumvirate, the Greek Army and the divisions they led soon began to question why they ought to bother, the war was lost and the Venizelist cause of expanding Greece along the lines of the Megali idea had been effectively crushed. Rallis requested an armistice from the Central Powers on June 29th, and the Republican Triumvirate quickly disintegrated after terms were accepted the next day, with the three officers fleeing to Constantinople to form a Democratic-Republican Government in exile, while in the country itself Panagiotis Danglis would take over the Liberal Party as Venizelos left the country for Switzerland. Quickly after, deprived of any base from which to fight, the Serbian forces in Greece would also surrender, while by July 30th the British army had entirely evacuated from Thessaloniki and the Bulgarian soon entered the city and hoisted the Bulgarian flag. The war in the Balkans, and now every European theatre, was over.

In the Empire, celebrations erupted in the towns and cities in a rare moment of unity following news of the armistice. The Emperor, Karl, who had taken the role during the Great War as a result of the death of Franz Ferdinand that had started this whole process off, finally had a moment to breathe. For a brief moment, the woes of the country seemed to be behind it. In March, the so-called 'Yugoslav Committee' had met at Zagreb to formally begin the process of declaring Illyria an independent state of 'Slovenes, Croats and Serbs', but now they soon announced they intended to meet again in early July to 'reassess' the situation - a sure victory for the Emperor. In Hungary, after an endless heightening of tensions between the German and Hungarian parts of the Empire, the Hungarians finally seemed willing to discuss what Austria could do to retain the throne of Hungary - with Hungarian Prime Minister Sándor Wekerle offering a letter of congratulations to the Emperor. Wekerle being a rather weak figure, it seemed clear that finally, the Hungarian Aristocracy had opened up to the idea that this might not all have been such a waste of time after all, especially now the Hungarian Army had been allowed to leave the frontlines in Italy. Yet, these brief glimpses of hope seemed to be more of a shield to the reality of the situation, a pair of rose-tinted glasses had been put over the eyes of the K.u.K. leadership and now, in their one opportunity, they messed it up in the most understandable fashion.

Emperor Karl had a plan, to create a Federal Imperial state that would create 'nationalism within the nation', allowing each member state of the Empire a say and thus avoiding the potential chaos that could unfold given the Empire's economic and political situation - but this was beyond a naive view. For the Hungarians, who had fought and bled in a war they had initially refused to consent to, there had to be consequences and clear benefits for their participation. Sure, they had been given some mountain passes in Romania, and their traditional Serbian foe had been all but annihilated, but these were trivial victories in a war that cost them greatly. Thus, with the Truce agreed in the Balkans, Emperor Karl issued his 'Völkermanifest', and the ball began rolling. The Völkermanifest, which was directed at the people of Cisleithania, or the Austrian half of the Empire, issued several promises; to create a new federation, to relax voting rights, and most importantly, to allow the peoples of each region of the Empire to begin the formation of their own 'National Councils' with immediate effect. This, in effect, made a previously treasonable act of insurrection now a quasi-legitimate form of political expression, and in effect eradicated the authority of the Emperor. Suddenly, the Reichsrat of Cisleithania was no longer the only legitimate form of political expression, the Emperor had left the door open, and local peoples leapt on it in a manner that was unquestionable to local officials and had an air of legitimacy. In Galicia, this was explosive. Polish and Ukrainian councils sprung up within the week, declaring themselves the rightful representatives of their respective regions and issuing their own claims to land. In the city of Lemberg, or Lviv in Ukrainian, and Lwów in Polish, ethnic violence erupted immediately when Ukrainian army units of the Austrian Army, allying themselves to the Council of Ukraine in the region, seized the city and raised Ukrainian flags. In the 86% polish speaking city in a supermajority Ukrainian region, this shocked the local people, and spurred them into action. Labeling themselves the 'Lwów Eaglets', 200 scouts and local high school students 64 outdated rifles and single-handedly defeated the Ukrainian force in the city, raised a Polish flag, and took control of the city, rallying over 1,000 local civilians to defend it.

Similar stories began to spring up across the country. In Bohemia, the existing Czechoslovak national movement had enormous popular support, and its sympathizers soon raised their own People's Council that became dominated by nationalists overnight, which immediately prompted an 'All German People's Council' to form in Pressberg shortly after - both demanding to have control over Bohemia. In Pressburg too, part of Transleithania and thus Hungary's domain, Slovakian Nationalists soon attempted to form their own council before it was declared illegal by Hungarian leadership, causing a rift between Vienna and Budapest over the Czechoslovak issue with Czech nationalists demanding that Slovakia also get freedom, and Hungary demanding that they don't. In Illyria, the Yugolav Committee met in the first week of July to discuss their next moves, and after ten days of heated discussions, the group settled on demanding three terms to the Imperial Government. First, that Illyria be united with Dalmatia. Second, that Illyria be united collectively at the same level of federal autonomy as the next highest authority, essentially demanding the same authority as Hungary or Bohemia. Third, that all of Trieste and Slovenia be unified with that devolved authority, along with the Condominium of Bosnia and Herzegovina. To Hungary, these terms were completely unacceptable, and despite having initially given the Emperor benefit of the doubt to protect Hungarian interests after the issuing of the Völkermanifest on July 2nd, by July 14th the Hungarian political elite had grown tired and concerned about the new proposals. In Pressburg, violence had already erupted between the two various German, Hungarian and Czechoslovak authorities while further in the Slovak heartland talks of rioting or revolution had begun emerging, in Transylvania Romanian separatists began protesting outside of Civil Service offices demanding the same autonomy as offered to the Poles, Ukrainians, and Illyrians. Thus, Prime Minister of Hungary Wekerle that day issued a notice to the Austrian Government effectively as an ultimatum; Austria would reject the Illyrian terms, Hungary would take ownership of Dalmatia and the Condominium of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Vienna would reject Czech demands for an integral Slovak element to their own autonomous zone, while outright vetoing Romanian autonomy. Failure to provide Hungary assurances of these demands, which Hungary had many times been promised and in some cases the Emperor had no power to legally institute anyway, would result in immediate Hungarian absolute autonomy from the crown as itself an independent state - even if Karl would still be invited to remain 'Emperor' in name.

Now, the slope had become far steeper, and far more slippery. With Hungary's demands clashing with those of the Czechs, Slovaks, and the Illyrians, a political crisis further escalated when the actual governing body of Croatia, the Sabor, which was governed by the 'Croat-Serb Coalition' who had been entirely left out of the Yugoslav committee, now passed a motion demanding the establishment of an autonomous Croatian state within the Empire, united with Dalmatia, rather than take part in the Illyrian proposal. This was done on the back of the Croatian Peasant Party who had gained enormous popularity in the last years of the war, harbouring broad and deep support among the working classes who had become increasingly less interested in Croat-Serb cooperation and harboured far greater interest in Croatian political autonomy, largely on the back of the Croatian Army that now included some 50,000 mutinying Soldier-Bandits hidden throughout the woods of Croatia burning aristocratic mansions and murdering local civil servants. With one week to respond to Wekerle's demands, Austria entered a period of panic. In Slovakia, ethnic violence erupted in an instant out of fear of a Hungarian crackdown, with the predominantly Slovak city of Pressburg experiencing riots that drove the city's garrison out of the city on July 16th, while cities like Banska Bystrica, Zilina and Trencin saw local army units, students and sympathetic civil servants take over and declare their loyalty to a Czechoslovak state, despite one not existing. Buoyed by the brave actions of their Slavic comrades, Bohemia soon erupted into Revolution too, with Czech mutineers taking over Prague alongside thousands of local citizens who forced the surrender of Prague's Austrian Garrison without bloodshed by July 18th. The brief moment of joy had come to an end, and in opening the gates slightly, the Emperor had unleashed an uncontrollable flood of raw, emotional, desperate protest.

Karl now had an impossible choice; either he could stay true to his principles and reject Hungary's ultimatum, call their bluff, and pray that Hungary backed down and accepted the new reality rather than risk further violence. Or, he could abandon his principles in the name of practicality - accept Hungarian demands and let them destroy any rebellions, stare down the Czechs into accepting an autonomous system or nothing at all, and just sever the entire Galician half of the Empire. Here he seemed to be indecisive, records suggest he bounced from one proposal to another, meeting with Dr. Aleksandar Horvat of the Croatian Christian-Social Party of Rights who proposed the creation of a 'Trialist' system in the Empire where Greater Croatia would be the third major partner in the Empire. Horvat's proposals even found some interest and support among the Hungarian Aristocracy, notably including former Prime Minister István Tisza who consented to the idea in a remarkable act of moderation but was unable to convince the more hardline members of the Hungarian cabinet, leaving the policy too divisive to be endorsed in full and putting Karl back to square one. He played for time, delaying a decision right up to the deadline to try and stare the Hungarian ministry down, and then things were complicated further when Cisleithanian Prime Minister Max Hussarek von Heinlein announced he would resign if Croatian and Czech, and thus Slovak, demands were not met. Throughout this period too, Slovakia erupted into revolution and violence. In the city of Eperjes, a Hungarian Majority city with a 40% Slovak minority, residents found themselves surrounded and in effect besieged by the local rural populace who, after arming themselves but being unable to militarily take the city, refused to allow anyone out of it or into it unless they signed onto joining a Czechoslovak State. The Hungarian army, most of which had been demobilized after returning from the front, meanwhile began acting to repress uprisings. Army units descended upon Transylvania, securing most towns and cities under threat of revolt by the 21st, while Regiments prepared on the Croatian border, ready to strike as soon as they were given the legal authority. Further, Hungarian Army units began an offensive into the Danubian Hills, towards the Slovak Central Mountains, facing limited resistance in the countryside that grew more impassioned in every town they passed. Soon, Pressburg was secured and the city put under Martial law to prevent further violence, the overwhelming weight of Hungarian troops prevented any mass opposition to the city's occupation in the end - but nonetheless, Slovak citizens did resist by refusing to work.

Now came the decision. Faced with little other choice, Emperor Karl was forced to accept the Hungarian demands - but with caveats. In a proclamation made on the 22nd July, he announced that while he would be willing to give the Hungarian people the "just reward for their service that they were owed" by ceding the lands demanded, he would not "sign away the rights of those who lived within them". In effect, Karl's proposition was simple; Hungary already had an existing devolved system under the Sabor in Croatia, and Hungary would keep their responsibilities to that system by expanding the authority of the Sabor to encompass all Croatian and Bosnian lands passed over to Transleithania - giving Croatia further devolved authority and effective control over all of Illyria. On the demands of the Yugoslav Committee, Karl opted to offer the Slovenes their own devolved administration under Austrian oversight, but rejected the notion that the Italian and German parts of the region on the coast should be under Slovenian control - particularly the Port of Trieste that German members of the Government were unwilling to concede and thus Karl could not offer. This was particularly driven by the fact that the Yugoslav committee included neither the Croatian Peasants - the country's most popular party, or the Serb-Croat Coalition, the elected Government in the Sabor, and thus did not represent the people's views. On the Czechoslovak issue, the Emperor proposed that Bohemia be given it's own devolved assembly much akin to the Croats, separate from the Slovaks, who the Emperor suggested but did not demand the Hungarians established a devolved body for. As for Galicia, much like in the Völkermanifest, the Emperor opted to offer to establish elected assemblies for the Ukrainians and Poles, with plebiscites being conducted to determine borders, and leaving the door open for unification of these groups with national entities of their own should they survive the current period of instability. Thus, the Emperor's response to Wekerle was somewhat a capitulation - but more so an offer of reconciliation meeting the needs of all involved, which no rational person could directly oppose... unless you're a German.

The Hungarian response to the proposal was actually very positive, they did not agree with establishing a devolved administration for the slovaks, but in all other areas they received the de-facto control of Illyria that they had sought, and they were taken off an invisible leash to crack down on unrest. Thus, with something now to 'show' for the victory of the war, Hungary agreed to the Emperor's proposals. Unfortunately, what Karl had not accounted for was the view of his own people on the matter. Being so focused on satisfying the chaotic demands of the rebels, protestors and revolutionaries, the Emperor's proposals on what ought to be done with the Czechoslovaks did nothing but to incense virtually all sides. For the Czechs, who had fallen under the leadership of Václav Klofáč of the Social National Party and Antonín Němec of the Social Democrats, autonomy was an option they were willing to consider - but one that was becoming rapidly less politically realistic. For a start, the Czechs, particularly the Social Nationalists under Klofáč who's alliance with exiled leader of the Czech National Council Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk had significantly elevated his political standing among the more nationalist-leaning and pacifist Czech people, were determined that any autonomous zone also include the Slovaks, or that the Slovaks gain some significant form of political independence Hungary wasn't willing to offer. Secondly, all Czechs maintained that the most important factor in autonomy and independence would be that the territorial integrity of Bohemia must be retained, as the loss of the German-speaking lands would devastate the economy. This clashed significantly with the German aforementioned lobby, whose council at Pressberg insisted that no autonomous zone should include German-speaking areas. On this, Karl lamented, suggesting that the Bohemian devolved authority have a divided electoral college with seats assigned to Germans and Czechs that ensured neither held political control over the other - a proposal that again, angered both sides.

Karl faced an additional problem too, all these negotiations and proposals took time - and time was very much not on his side. Between submitting his initial response to the Wekerle Ultimatum, and the Hungarians both accepting his response, and then the Czechs refusing to agree to it, well over a week had gone by, and this created a problem. While the Croats were a primarily rural people without large urban centres and a pro-reformist rather than pro-nationalist populace, the Czechs were a sharp contrast. Bohemia was an urban, industrialized, generally well-educated enough region with a long political history of being subjugated and controlled by foreign powers, particularly the Germans, with no history of devolved administration. Czechs plainly did not trust the German leadership of the country anymore, and more importantly the revolutionary organizations in Prague, Brno and many other major Czech cities were rapidly growing tired of negotiation and pandering while their people starved, their economy collapsed and the political leadership of the Empire sold out their Slovakian comrades in the name of placating the conservative and authoritarian Hungarians of the Empire. If Slovakia could be sold down the river so quickly, how were the Czechs sure that the Austrians wouldn't allow Germans to dominate the proposed Bohemian legislature when Czechs made up a majority of the Bohemian population? Especially when German speakers now would get an equivalent number of seats in said legislature via the college system. Rapidly the political situation in the Czechoslovak National Council, now based in Prague, turned to Nationalism, rather than autonomy, and Václav Klofáč soon found himself leading a council made up of Czechs demanding he act now and secure a Czech state rather than continue to negotiate with an entity that clearly cared little for Czech nationalism and were buying time to defeat it - and so he did. From London, the long-distance leader of the Czech National Committee Tomáš Masaryk, used his influence and allies in the country to declare independence for Czechoslovakia. The British, who were still at war with the central powers and now faced increasing political pressure to cease the conflict, immediately recognized the new state in order to create good press for the Government and to encourage the further collapse of Austrian influence in central Europe in the hope that such a collapse would ensure no German or Austrian forces could aid their final ally in the last theatre of the British conflict; the middle east. In Prague, the Czechoslovak national council officially, legally declared independence for Czechoslovakia on June 1st 1918, declaring Karel Kramář as interim Prime Minister, Václav Klofáč as Minister for War, and the still in exile Tomáš Masaryk as President, though for all intents and purposes Václav Klofáč acted as Acting President.

The consequences were enormous, especially for Emperor Karl. In backing a Bohemian autonomous zone he had staked his political position on ensuring stability in the region in exchange for angering some of his German base of support - yet with Czechoslovakia now rejecting his terms and declaring independence, he had now delivered Austria another war which it could not afford to fight against a motivated foe that had the support of a good number of Austria's own army units. The Czechoslovaks additionally now took legal control over the rebellious Slovakian zone, further expanding the problem in the Empire and sending a message to the rest of the Empire's subjects that the Empire was on the verge of collapse. In Ukrainian Galicia, the existing West Ukrainian Council also would declare independence on June 4th, while in Polish Galicia a 'South Polish State' would be declared by their own national council the same day - immediately requesting aid from the existing Kingdom of Poland and calling on German intervention. Fighting broke out throughout Bohemia as former Bohemian Austrian Army units defected en mass, bringing with them their arms, knowledge and willingness to fight for their state against an Austrian foe whose own army was disintegrating, allowing Czechoslovak forces to quite easily secure territory in the northern Sudetenland, while pushing back the disorganized Austrian forces in the south. What little press was in the region often captured images of soldiers draped in Czech flags surrounded by their countrymen heading off to the frontline to secure their independence - images that would draw sympathy from the German left-wing and be hailed by the Russian Bolsheviks. In Austria itself, the war proved to many Austrians that change was needed - and demands for elections grew intolerable for the Emperor who faced increasingly harsh and aggressive political demands by the Social Democratic Party in particular, along with German nationalists who looked to their victorious northern neighbour for solutions to the nation's problems. Vienna itself was a starving city, with thousands fleeing into the countryside, while mass panic and hysteria about the conflict only a short distance north of the heart of the Empire drove many more into the countryside or south. On June 2nd, Prime Minister Max Hussarek von Heinlein had resigned in response to the Czech revolt, resulting in the appointment of Archduke Joseph August as Prime Minister in a desperate attempt by the Emperor to restore some political stability, yet quickly the city itself turned to rioting and mass protest when already scarce food shipments from the Ukraine and other parts of the Empire were held up by the various revolts in Galicia and Slovakia. This resulted in a sudden desire to challenge Karl's waning authority by the Reichsrat, who's SPÖ and even German-nationalist parties began calling for new, long overdue, elections to determine the country's path forward. For the SPÖ, this was an opportunity at power for the first time, while for German nationalists this was a last gasp means of reigning the Emperor in his path towards Bohemian autonomy, should the Czechs be defeated. Faced with little other choice, the Emperor relented, and elections were drawn up for next month in August.

Throughout the rest of the Empire, a period of relative calm suddenly dawned as political lines were finally drawn. In Illyria, Hungarian troops quickly rushed to secure the region and swept aside the 50,000 or so Croatian 'Green' bandits who had been terrorizing the region, arresting one figure in particular known as 'Čaruga' by the locals for his Robin hood-Esque attitude of stealing from rich aristocrats named Jovan Stanisavljevic. In Bohemia, soldiers loyal to the Czechoslovak state quite easily secured up to the Otava, Luznice and Dyje rivers before organized Austrian forces drove them back to Tabor and Brno respectively, threatening the security of the new Czech state, while Hungarian forces began carving a path through Trencin towards the key city of Zilina to cut off Czech forces from aiding the Slovaks. As elections drew near, the future of the Empire hung in the balance; and the political changes in its northern neighbour would soon make its own mark.

----------​

Once again, the update got so long and unwieldy that I've decided to split it in half. The German half and a culmination of the two that will collectively cover the time up to September 1918 will come next. There is a graphic being made for this one but it'll either come later, or I'll just stick both in the next update. Anyway, hope y'all enjoy!

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Another really great update. Hope all turns out okay- peaceful seems too high a bar- in Austria-Hungary. (At least better than in my own TL!) Certainly, by 1918 the Dual Monarchy was in a bad enough state that even if it didn't lose ('win' is a pretty high bar too) the war, it could easily have dissolved.

I eagerly await more!

 

[cjc]

Man, I have a hard time seeing Germany not get involved in this before to much longer, even whith the SPD in charge Austria-Hungary is collapsing and a lot of german nationals are going to be asking for help. Fun times ahead.

 

[Augenis]

It's a good update, although to me it felt as if the events taking place in Austria-Hungary are overly dramatic and take place too quickly. A-H was surprisingly resilient in OTL, and even up to late 1918 the general mood across the whole Empire was not to pursue unlikely independence but to reform the Empire to a more acceptable structure. It's telling that, for example, the National Council of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs did not even discuss independence from the Empire until the end of October - and even then, they only declared independence because they reached out to Karl and he basically told them that they can do anything they want. In the timescale which this update is taking place, the Croatian and Czechoslovak independence movements were still rather embryonic.

To Hungary, these terms were completely unacceptable, and despite having initially given the Emperor benefit of the doubt to protect Hungarian interests after the issuing of the Völkermanifest on July 2nd, by July 14th the Hungarian political elite had grown tired and concerned about the new proposals. In Pressburg, violence had already erupted between the two various German, Hungarian and Czechoslovak authorities while further in the Slovak heartland talks of rioting or revolution had begun emerging, in Transylvania Romanian separatists began protesting outside of Civil Service offices demanding the same autonomy as offered to the Poles, Ukrainians, and Illyrians. Thus, Prime Minister of Hungary Wekerle that day issued a notice to the Austrian Government effectively as an ultimatum; Austria would reject the Illyrian terms, Hungary would take ownership of Dalmatia and the Condominium of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Vienna would reject Czech demands for an integral Slovak element to their own autonomous zone, while outright vetoing Romanian autonomy. Failure to provide Hungary assurances of these demands, which Hungary had many times been promised and in some cases the Emperor had no power to legally institute anyway, would result in immediate Hungarian absolute autonomy from the crown as itself an independent state - even if Karl would still be invited to remain 'Emperor' in name.

Sándor Wekerle was flexible towards the Croatians though, wasn't he? That's one of the reasons why he was appointed as the Prime Minister of Hungary, afaik. Tisza was very uncompromisial both regarding suffrage reform in Hungary and the creation of a Habsburg South Slavic entity, Karl I sacked him in 1917, Wekerle was appointed as a figure who could agree to some form of compromise towards the Croats. Granted the Tisza faction was still dominant in the Hungarian parliament and Wekerle effectively ran a minority government so I suppose he could still be pressured to do something.

a political crisis further escalated when the actual governing body of Croatia, the Sabor, which was governed by the 'Croat-Serb Coalition' who had been entirely left out of the Yugoslav committee, now passed a motion demanding the establishment of an autonomous Croatian state within the Empire, united with Dalmatia, rather than take part in the Illyrian proposal.

...what? The Croat-Serb Coalition was the leading force in the Yugoslav Committee. Out of the Committee's leaders, Hinko Hinković and Frano Supilo were some of the most important and both of them were the Coalition's founders. Not only that, but they were the leading Yugoslavist force in Croatian politics. Once Yugoslavia was formed, they formed the core of the unitarist Democratic Party, the Coalition choosing to abandon their historical Yugoslavism in order to back an autonomous ethnic Croatia inside Austria-Hungary is a complete breach in their positions. After all, it is the "Croat-Serb Coalition" - the Serbs living on the Habsburg side had no interest in supporting Croatian dominance.

Perhaps you confused the Yugoslav Committee with the Zagreb Resolution which later paved the way for the formation of the National Council of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs, and it excluded both the Croat-Serb Coalition and the Peasants' Party - however, this Resolution was made in opposition to Yugoslavism, and was an Austroslavist proposal which aimed to establish something akin to the compromise later presented in the update. In addition, it involved the Coalition very quickly and was hijacked by Yugoslavist ambitions once the collapse of the Empire came nearer.

In Prague, the Czechoslovak national council officially, legally declared independence for Czechoslovakia on June 1st 1918, declaring Karel Kramář as interim Prime Minister, Václav Klofáč as Minister for War, and the still in exile Tomáš Masaryk as President, though for all intents and purposes Václav Klofáč acted as Acting President.

Odd to see Czechoslovakia declared earlier in a world where the Central Powers are more successful than OTL. Well, to me personally.

 

[TheReformer]

Sándor Wekerle was flexible towards the Croatians though, wasn't he? That's one of the reasons why he was appointed as the Prime Minister of Hungary, afaik. Tisza was very uncompromisial both regarding suffrage reform in Hungary and the creation of a Habsburg South Slavic entity, Karl I sacked him in 1917, Wekerle was appointed as a figure who could agree to some form of compromise towards the Croats. Granted the Tisza faction was still dominant in the Hungarian parliament and Wekerle effectively ran a minority government so I suppose he could still be pressured to do something.

This, from what I've read, is a pretty accurate description of the situation. Wekerle was largely controlled by the stronger figures around him, so much so that even in October 1918 in OTL it was Tisza who was approached by Dr Horvat about a Trialist system which he consented to. In this scenario Hungary's situation is stronger in the Empire than even Austria's on account of it's stable politics and still significant (and already returning home) army. This is why I've interpreted that Wekerle would be strongarmed into getting better terms from the Emperor than he's proposing - before eventually accepting a more lenient approach that gave the Croats more autonomy and control of Bosnia which Tisza would likely accept too, along with the rest of the more conservative figures in the Hungarian elite, given that Hungary gets de-jure control of Croatia and Bosnia that way, while also avoiding destabilizing the empire too significantly.

...what? The Croat-Serb Coalition was the leading force in the Yugoslav Committee. Out of the Committee's leaders, Hinko Hinković and Frano Supilo were some of the most important and both of them were the Coalition's founders. Not only that, but they were the leading Yugoslavist force in Croatian politics. Once Yugoslavia was formed, they formed the core of the unitarist Democratic Party, the Coalition choosing to abandon their historical Yugoslavism in order to back an autonomous ethnic Croatia inside Yugoslavia is a complete breach in their positions. After all, it is the "Croat-Serb Coalition" - the Serbs living on the Habsburg side had no interest in supporting Croatian dominance.

Perhaps you confused the Yugoslav Committee with the Zagreb Resolution which later paved the way for the formation of the National Council of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs, and it excluded both the Croat-Serb Coalition and the Peasants' Party - however, this Resolution was made in opposition to Yugoslavism, and was an Austroslavist proposal which aimed to establish something akin to the compromise later presented in the update. In addition, it involved the Coalition very quickly and was hijacked by Yugoslavist ambitions once the collapse of the Empire came nearer.

Ah yes you're quite right on that second part. Not being the most well versed in pre-yugoslav Imperial croatian politics I evidently did indeed conflate the two. I'll take a look into amending that aspect of the lore prior to the next update.

Odd to see Czechoslovakia declared earlier in a world where the Central Powers are more successful than OTL. Well, to me personally

Given the circumstances, the figures involved, and the lateness of the PoD, combined with the political situation in the empire, it seems appropriate to me based on the circumstances. But of course, I understand your perspective. As you say, AH was surprisingly resilient and I feel this update is a fair reflection of that, which the next update will also look into further - unlike some timelines where Austria Hungary seems to collapse regardless.

 

[Drizzt]

I liked the update in general, but I a have to agree with @Augenis that things seem to go unrealistically poorly for the Habsburgs. Events seem to be more fitting for an A-H with 21st century internet, mass communications and a generally much less Monarch-friendly attitude amongst the commoners, than for an A-H in 1918 that just won the Great War.

 

[Augenis]

This, from what I've read, is a pretty accurate description of the situation. Wekerle was largely controlled by the stronger figures around him, so much so that even in October 1918 in OTL it was Tisza who was approached by Dr Horvat about a Trialist system which he consented to. In this scenario Hungary's situation is stronger in the Empire than even Austria's on account of it's stable politics and still significant (and already returning home) army. This is why I've interpreted that Wekerle would be strongarmed into getting better terms from the Emperor than he's proposing - before eventually accepting a more lenient approach that gave the Croats more autonomy and control of Bosnia which Tisza would likely accept too, along with the rest of the more conservative figures in the Hungarian elite, given that Hungary gets de-jure control of Croatia and Bosnia that way, while also avoiding destabilizing the empire too significantly.

That is fair, I suppose. 👍

Ah yes you're quite right on that second part. Not being the most well versed in pre-yugoslav Imperial croatian politics I evidently did indeed conflate the two. I'll take a look into amending that aspect of the lore prior to the next update.

If I were in your shoes, I'd change the Croat-Serb Coalition demanding an autonomous Croatia to the Zagreb Declaration forming a National Council immediately, instead of a few months later, it would be led by Anton Korošec and Ante Pavelić (not the famous one, his father) - although if you wish to keep the demand for an autonomous Croatia, then Korošec would have to go, as he was a Slovene. At the time, the Croatian parties sought a "national concentration" of all political parties into one united fist, which eventually led to the integration of the Croat-Serb Coalition and them hijacking the National Council - so an early abandonment of that idea would probably be necessary.

Of course, that's just what comes to my mind.

 

[TheReformer]

I liked the update in general, but I a have to agree with @Augenis that things seem to go unrealistically poorly for the Habsburgs. Events seem to be more fitting for an A-H with 21st century internet, mass communications and a generally much less Monarch-friendly attitude amongst the commoners, than for an A-H in 1918 that just won the Great War.

I'd await on the second part before drawing conclusions, however, I will say while I sympathize with your view, being far more of the hard alternate history enthusiast, I tend to base my events off real circumstances, similar circumstances and evidence - so I'd say 'unrealistic' might be an exaggeration.

 

[Drizzt]

I'd await on the second part before drawing conclusions, however, I will say while I sympathize with your view, being far more of the hard alternate history enthusiast, I tend to base my events off real circumstances, similar circumstances and evidence - so I'd say 'unrealistic' might be an exaggeration.

Ok. It's your TL. Will keep on seeing what happens.