TLIAD: Portilistas Triumphant
- Thread starter wargamer6
- Start date
WHY ARE YOU DOING A TLIAD?!!!
Because I want to! Leave me alone!
BUT ONLY PEOPLE FROM THE UK CAN DO THESE!
Say's who? An American doing a TLIAD; big whoop wanna fight about it?!
STOP TALKING MORE POSTING, OR ALFIEJ WILL BE UPSET WITH YOU!
Fine fine...
Because I want to! Leave me alone!
BUT ONLY PEOPLE FROM THE UK CAN DO THESE!
Say's who? An American doing a TLIAD; big whoop wanna fight about it?!
STOP TALKING MORE POSTING, OR ALFIEJ WILL BE UPSET WITH YOU!
Fine fine...
I like the concept of this: Tory modernisers four years early! But it'd be nice if you had a little more text in your updates: there's nothing worse than a timeline comprising little more than vote numbers and pictures.
I know; I just wanted to build the framework. Plus I'm writing this as I go along.
The Shadow Cabinet
Leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition and Leader of the Conservative Party - The Rt. Hon. Michael Portillo, MP
Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer - The Rt. Hon. Kenneth Clarke, MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs - The Rt. Hon. George Young, MP
Shadow Secretary of State for the Home Department - The Rt Hon. Peter Lilley, MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Defense - The Rt. Hon. David Davis, MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Transport - The Rt. Hon. David Amess, MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Health - The Rt. Hon. Gillian Shephard, MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Wales - Rod Richards
Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland - The Rt. Hon. Peter Duncan, MP
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I doubt Hague would be given/accept a role in the shadow cabinet after resigning as leader?
Agreed with this. It took quite a deal of persuasion in 2005, iirc.
Hmmm: post 2001, New Labour's lustre started to wane even with the Tories looking utterly lost up until 2003 and still fairly hopeless after that. I think an earlier modernising movement can probably win considerably more seats than Howard did IOTL as they won't have effectively wasted the 2001-03 period, but there'll obviously still be problems with elements of the Party that just aren't ready in 2001 to hear the message that's needed. Arguably, though, these elements still weren't ready in 2005, so there we are.
If Portillo does well, I'd suggest he can maybe see the Tories sitting on 230 or so seats come June 2005: still a low number, but better than IOTL and within reach of a majority next time round.
Finally! Very glad someone's exploring this obvious but under-done POD.
I agree with BG (shock horror) that the 2005 election should be better for the Tories, and of course Portillo won't be expected to resign if the Tories make significant gains. Then he has 4/5 years opposite the collapsing Blair-Brown project to look like the PM-in-waiting. I reckon we'll see a Tory majority at the 2009/2010/2011 election.
I agree with BG (shock horror) that the 2005 election should be better for the Tories, and of course Portillo won't be expected to resign if the Tories make significant gains. Then he has 4/5 years opposite the collapsing Blair-Brown project to look like the PM-in-waiting. I reckon we'll see a Tory majority at the 2009/2010/2011 election.
Any suggestions? I'll admit this period of time I'm not familiar with. The Tory bench is still pretty decimated from 2 landslide defeats as well, so it may be bottom of the barrel scraping.
I'd say Michael Howard, or maybe Sir George Young if you're going with the whole modernising Conservative Party theme?
October 2001
Following his election as leader of the Conservative Party, Michael Portillo realized he had a herculean task ahead of him. The Party had suffered 2 landslide defeats in a row, only ending their “England only” status by gaining a seat in Scotland, but still not having any MPs in Wales.
Going over the polling data from the last election, it was clear that the focus on the Euro and immigration was a disaster. Low turnout may have shown that there was no ”great love” for New Labour, people still voted tactically for them out of fear over what the Tories may do. The weak counter to Labour’s attacks on the “Tebbit Trinity” weakened any chance of reducing Labour’s majority.
There was one unique point of note, however. During the fuel protests last fall, the Conservatives briefly overtook Labour for the first time in years. New Labour may just be vulnerable yet, if times get rough. But the party has to look to the future, not to the past for inspiration. The party had to stand for something, not just oppose.
Michael looked at his watch and realized the time. He had to catch a train to Ipswich and help campaign during the by-election. He didn’t have much hope of winning, just possibly reducing Labour’s majority.
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Kinnock managed it - of course, he didn't go on to win in 1992, but he was perceived as going to, as Portillo would be ITTL.
The Tories are famously less forgiving than Labour though - in more ways than one.
David Dimbleby:
And we now go to Ipswich, there they are ready with a declaration.
LABOUR HOLD
- Flashes on screen
- Flashes on screen
DD: Well, Labour’s majority was down, but they held on; Another low turnout election with just a smidge over 40% turning out. There was talk about the Liberal Democrats might come in second but that did not happen, as they are down on their general election result…
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Some interesting minor changes to the Ipswich by-election. There was absolutely no chance of the Conservatives winning, whoever was their leader; Jamie Cann was far too popular an MP for anybody other than a Labour MP to have followed him.
I can certainly see a Portillo-led Tory party improving on the OTL result, but I'm not convinced they'd have done quite that well. I don't think that 1,000 or so LibDem voters would have gone Tory as a result of the change though, especially not with Portillo only having had a short time to stamp his style on them. In my opinion about 500 lost from each of the LibDems and Labour to the Tories would be more likely.
It's also interesting that out of the minor parties it's the Socialist Alliance that have slightly improved their performance compared to OTL.
I'll be intrigued to see where this goes. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Portillo-led Conservatives can get a lot better result in the next general election than Howard did after the IDS debacle.
I can certainly see a Portillo-led Tory party improving on the OTL result, but I'm not convinced they'd have done quite that well. I don't think that 1,000 or so LibDem voters would have gone Tory as a result of the change though, especially not with Portillo only having had a short time to stamp his style on them. In my opinion about 500 lost from each of the LibDems and Labour to the Tories would be more likely.
It's also interesting that out of the minor parties it's the Socialist Alliance that have slightly improved their performance compared to OTL.
I'll be intrigued to see where this goes. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Portillo-led Conservatives can get a lot better result in the next general election than Howard did after the IDS debacle.