TL-191 WI Robert Taft won the election of 1940.

[Jett-Power]

It's 1940, a Presidential election year in the United States of America. Throughout the Al Smith administration, the long occupation of Utah ended, the economy of the United States slowly started to improve, and in June 1940, Smith met with Confederate dictator Jake Featherston in Richmond to discuss allowing some former Confederate territory taken from the CSA in the Great War to be given back. The Richmond Agreement stated that on January 7, 1941, referendums will be held in Kentucky, Houston (OTL western Texas), and Sequoyah (OTL Oklahoma), deciding if they wish to rejoin the CSA, with the referendums being held in a free and fair manner, with the states black population also voting in the referendums, the border between the CS and US will be demilitarized for 25 years, and the CSA will stop requesting more former territory. The Democratic Party campaigned against the referendums, while the Socialists claimed that Smith had "Got us out of war." The election of 1940 was one of the closest elections in American history, as Kentucky and Houston voted Socialist for the first time in their states' history, Indiana voting for Republican Wendell Willkie, and the election came down to the West Coast; Taft won California, while Smith won Washington state and Oregon.

Now, what would have happened if Taft had won the election? I still feel like the Richmond Agreement Referdums would still be held, with the results being the same in the mainline series, and the CSA would probably use Taft as an excuse to remilitarize the border between the US and CS, or the Frankfort Incident would still happen, which was the excuse Featherston used in the mainline series. I probably imagine Taft would but heads with Congress (under the assumption that the Socialists still hold Congress) to prepare the nation for war against the CSA, up until the CSA remilitarizes the border. Maybe the Second Great War in North America could start earlier, as the CSA hoped to try and get the USA to fight them by declaring war on Germany, which failed btw. Perhaps Taft would take this bait and go to war with the CSA. I imagine the Second Great War would still happen the way it did in the mainline series, and I also have doubts that if Taft died in an air raid as Smith did, his VP (the books didn't say who his running mate was) would surrender to the CSA. Maybe the victory in the Second Great War would cause the Democrats to win the election of 1944.

But that's what I think; what do you guys think?

 

[bguy]

Now, what would have happened if Taft had won the election? I still feel like the Richmond Agreement Referdums would still be held, with the results being the same in the mainline series, and the CSA would probably use Taft as an excuse to remilitarize the border between the US and CS, or the Frankfort Incident would still happen, which was the excuse Featherston used in the mainline series.

I'm skeptical that the Richmond Agreement referendum would actually go through in the event of a Taft election victory. The 1940 election was pretty much a referendum on the Richmond Agreement as that was the dominant issue in the campaign, and by the American people electing Taft they have made it clear they do not support the agreement. For a Socialist president (the party that is supposed to stand for the people) to so blatantly disregard public opinion and push through the agreement anyway when the public just clearly demonstrated that they do not want that agreement would do tremendous damage to the Socialist Party.

Also, while it is never explicitly stated in the books, I think there must have been an agreement between the Socialists and the Democrats that the 1940 election would decide whether the Richmond Agreement went forward or not. (Such an agreement is the only way I can see how the Socialists could have prevented a Democratic filibuster of the Richmond Agreement in Congress.) Certainly Cincinnatus seemed to believe that the plebiscite would not have happened if Taft won the election as he only starts making plans to get his family out of Kentucky after Smith wins the election, and Cincinnatus seemed to be politically astute in the books, so I don't think he would have believed that a Taft victory would prevent the plebiscite without good reason.

If I'm correct and the US does repudiate the Richmond Agreement following Taft's election then that will certainly lead to war with the Confederates. (Featherston could declare war immediately but given the difficulties of launching an invasion in the winter, he'll probably wait until the spring of 1941.) The US is in a somewhat stronger military position here than in the canon storyline since it will still have Kentucky as a shield for the Mid-West states, though the US will also be less politically united than it was in the canon timeline since Featherston's invasion won't seem nearly as treacherous ITTL since he is attacking after the US broke an agreement with him, and a lot of the Socialists will probably blame Taft for the war and insist it wouldn't have happened if Smith had been reelected.

The Confederates probably overrun Kentucky in their initial invasion since Featherston has been building up his army for some time to fight this war while the US Army has been underfunded throughout the 1930s and is probably more oriented to counterinsurgency warfare than conventional warfare since its spent most of the 1930s fighting counterinsurgency campaigns. I imagine the Confederate offensive ends up stalling at the Ohio River though. (The difficulties of maintaining the logistical system necessary to sustain a mechanized army, combined with such a formidable geographic obstruction as the Ohio, and the sheer number of US troops should be enough to halt the Confederate offensive there.) From that point on the US will have the advantage (even more than it did in the canon timeline) since the country never gets cut in two or has one of its major industrial areas occupied. The US probably retakes Kentucky by the end of 1942 and pushes on into Confederate territory by 1943. (It should also develop the atomic bombs well before the Confederates get theirs.)

The interesting question is once the war has clearly turned against the Confederacy, would Featherston be willing to try and come to terms with the US ? ITTL he hasn't actually ever broken his word with the US, so the US might be willing to negotiate with him (though I imagine US demands would be very harsh).