TL-191: Postwar

TL 191: Postwar
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Charles W. LaFollette holding a copy of his radio address

"My fellow Americans. I have just received word from General Morrill that the Freedomite government has signed terms of unconditional surrender. The Confederate States of America are no more. The attention of the world is focused on that little town of Pineville, where the tyranny and oppression of Jake Featherston's regime has finally been laid to rest.

However, our celebrations are sobered by the terrible cost we have paid to achieve this victory. Our obligation and gratefulness go out to those who have been killed and injured in the line of duty. Many of our own family and neighbors and loved ones will not return home. Across the nation, in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and especially here in Philadelphia, from where I speak to you today, the Freedomite criminals left a trail of devastation and terror, for which we have paid them back tenfold. We will never forget Ohio, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. And they will never forget Pineville."

[...]

Today we honor our brave airmen, seamen, and soldiers, who have displayed the greatest valor and fortitude, for which posterity shall never forget.

We honor the farmer and the worker, without which our arsenal of democracy would never have been created.

We honor the n-gro, both in the North and the South, who braved the horrors of the Featherston regime, and fought for liberty and righteousness.

We honor the great Al Smith, who led us through the dark days of 1941 and whose tragic death serves as a reminder of the sacrifices we have all made.

[...]

We must construct a new world from the ashes of the old. We must strive to create a world free from fear, free from hunger and thirst, free from tyranny, and free from prejudice and hatred. Let us strive, in cooperation with all nations, to create a world where the common man shall prosper. Where war and destruction, famine and disease, poverty and greed shall be things of the past. This is the goal we must aim for, in our great post-war world."

- Charles W. LaFollette's Radio Address to the American people announcing the surrender of the Confederate States of America. (July 14th, 1944)

Note: A lot of this speech is based on OTL Harry Truman's speech announcing the surrender of Germany and the surrender of Japan.


TL-191: POSTWAR
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Hello everyone! I decided to make a timeline about what the world of Tl-191 would look like after the Second Great War. A lot of it will be (loosely) based on my posts in Photos of Featherston's Confederacy.

I'll be pretty busy for the next few months, so updates will unfortunately be pretty infrequent. I'll try to pick it up after that, however.

I hope you all enjoy!
- Kernel
 
Hello everyone! I decided to make a timeline about what the world of Tl-191 would look like after the Second Great War. A lot of it will be (loosely) based on my posts in Photos of Featherston's Confederacy.

I'll be pretty busy for the next few months, so updates will unfortunately be pretty infrequent. I'll try to pick it up after that, however.

I hope you all enjoy!
- Kernel
How much inspired by After the End will this TL be?, because for example, I have a vague recollection of Turtledove saying on Twitter that Texas had reunited with the post-1944 US, whereas in that TL, Texas is portrayed as independent til the present day, so I wanted to see a TL where the few of what Turtledove has said about TL-191 since 2008 (when ATE started) is featured in it.
 
How much inspired by After the End will this TL be?, because for example, I have a vague recollection of Turtledove saying on Twitter that Texas had reunited with the post-1944 US, whereas in that TL, Texas is portrayed as independent til the present day, so I wanted to see a TL where the few of what Turtledove has said about TL-191 since 2008 (when ATE started) is featured in it.
After the End is a great TL ... but I want to go in a different direction. Specifically, the integration of the South will be a much more bloody and protracted affair.

As for Texas, I don't want to get too far into what will happen in the future, but for the near future after 1944 Texas will be an independent nation.
 
How many Confederate citizens are alive after the war? If a sizeable number died via war damage, surely there would only be small KKK-esque rebellions and revolts during the occupation right?
 
How many Confederate citizens are alive after the war? If a sizeable number died via war damage, surely there would only be small KKK-esque rebellions and revolts during the occupation right?
I haven't thought of an exact figure of how many died, but I would assume the answer is around a couple million (b/w three to four million perhaps, or 10% of the Confederate population), which leaves around thirty million or so Confederate citizens . Initially there would only be a few sporadic revolts, but they will increase in both number and intensity as time goes on.
 
I haven't thought of an exact figure of how many died, but I would assume the answer is around a couple million (b/w three to four million perhaps, or 10% of the Confederate population), which leaves around thirty million or so Confederate citizens . Initially there would only be a few sporadic revolts, but they will increase in both number and intensity as time goes on.

Will the South still be apart of the US into the modern day (obviously via documented brutal methods), or will annexation plans go south (pun intended) and the US spins off farther states as an independent US protectorate?
 
Will the South still be apart of the US into the modern day (obviously via documented brutal methods), or will annexation plans go south (pun intended) and the US spins off farther states as an independent US protectorate?
We'll just have to wait and see ... ;)
 
Worst case scenario is there will be an obvious allegory to our controversial Vietnam War. Nonetheless, the South will never rise again.

Former CSA is going to be Northern Ireland in steroids. The country has been exist over 80 years so people have developed strong national feelings. So USA has either be ready to use billions dollars and brutal and ruthless tactics to keep South down and completely incorporate Southern States by 2024. Or then after few decades of occupation USA realises that it can't really hold that and allow some Deep South states re-gain independence but even that would be basically puppet state and almost completely de-industrialised. There just is not other ways.

And probably there will be new war with Japan at some point.
 
And probably there will be new war with Japan at some point.
Wouldn't a war too soon just be naval operation unthinkable?

The problem with a fourth Pacific war is that if it happens too soon would the US even have it in them to fully beat Japan considering they're still reeling from the second great war?

If it happens too late than it will be nuclear/thermonuclear since Japan will have the bomb sooner rather than later realistically, so the window for a war to remain conventional will be short and will close quickly.
 
Late 1944

Late 1944

July 1944: The British-German armistice goes into effect. British troops are to leave the continent by the end of 1944, as well as withdraw from German colonies. All capital ships (such as battleships and airplane carriers) are to be handed over to the Germans. All superbomb facilities are to be inspected and dismantled by German authorities, and all British scientists working on the superbomb must be interned in Germany. British forces are to withdraw from Ireland at "greatest speed", though no timetable is given. The British are allowed concessions such as the lack of an occupation of the main isles and having individuals such as Churchill and Mosley tried in British courts (though under German supervision). A final peace treaty will be negotiated sometime in the future.

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A British newspaper clipping reporting the arrest of Oswald Mosley and other key wartime leaders following the British-German Armistice

July 1944: Following the British-German armistice, the Kingdom of France under Louis XIX begins negotiations with Germany through Swiss intermediaries. The French government had held out even after the superbombing of Paris in hopes that British superbombs would force a German surrender. This gamble, obviously, didn't pay off. As French and German diplomats meet in the city of Geneva to discuss terms of surrender, the German delegation is adamant about an unconditional surrender of France. Senior figures in the Actionist government begin to panic, and several high-ranking party and military figures start to flee to French colonies and Falangist Spain. One of these individuals is a certain Brigadier General Charles de Gaulle.

July 1944: Italy launches a surprise attack on British and French possessions in the Mediterranean and Africa, quickly seizing control of Corsica, Malta, Djibouti, and British Somaliland, as well as key areas along the French-Italian border. Spain also takes the opportunity to wrestle control of Gibraltar.


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Italian troops disembark in Malta

July 1944: Fearful of an Italian invasion, Pied Noir councils in Algeria declare their independence from France and seek German support. Germany, along with the rest of the Central Powers, recognize Algeria's independence. The country is entirely run by its Pied Noir minority, with Muslim Algerians having little to no voting or citizenship rights. Time will tell if this arrangement will be sustainable ...

July 14th, 1944: Acting Confederate President Don Partridge surrenders to the USA. The Confederacy ceases to exist, and despite sporadic resistance American troops occupy all Confederate States. Celebrations break out throughout the United States, though they are somewhat muted in Philadelphia due to the recent superbombing.

July 1944: US troops take control of British outposts in Greenland as well as British-occupied Iceland. In both places British troops surrender without firing a shot.

July 1944: The Democratic National Convention nominates Thomas Dewey for President, who manages to beat Senator Arthur Vandeburg (D-OH) and Governor Earl Warren of California. Dewey is known to be a moderate on economic issues, supporting social welfare policies and a balance between business and labor. Conservative senator Harry Truman is chosen as the vice-presidential nominee. [1]


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Thomas Dewey on the campaign trail

July 1944 - September 1944: The Second Great Rising begins in Ireland in an effort to force the British to completely withdraw from the Emerald Isle. Resistance groups, which acted without impunity in the countryside during the war, now move to take control of major roads and cities. By September, the British only control Dublin, Cork, and Northern Ireland.
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An Irish rebel propoganda poster during the Second Great War

August 1944: The Republican Party nominates Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen for President. A very popular and charismatic figure, Stassen is known for his many reformist plans as well as his support among farmers and small business owners in the Midwest.

August 1944: Though the British have made peace with the US and Germany, the war with Japan continues. Japanese troops in Burma capture Rangoon and begin the battle for Mandalay. The INA (Indian National Army) under Subhas Chandra Bose is also formed. A collaborationist military organization made up of Indian POWS and Indians living within Japanese-controlled Asia, the INA seeks "complete liberation" of India from the British.

August 1944: A deal for unconditional surrender is reached for France. French King Louis XIX abdicates, and the French Orleanist Monarchy is disestablished. Much of Northeastern France is to be ceded to Germany, and German military forces are to occupy Northern France in an occupation zone stretching until Brest. A pro-German Provisional Council under French admiral Francois Darlan is to rule the rest of France. The French army is limited to 200,000 men and the vast majority of ships in the French navy are given to Germany. The Action Francais Party is banned, and all high-ranking members are placed under German custody. In response to this treaty, Charles de Gaulle gives his famous "Brazzaville Speech", calling upon all Frenchmen and believers in Actionism to continue resisting in the Metropole and in the Colonies. Though resistance within France is almost nonexistent, several colonial officials in French West Africa and French Equatorial Africa are becoming more open to de Gaulle's ideas ...


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Charles de Gaulle giving his "Brazzaville Speech"

August 1944 onwards: Clashes between Russian and Japanese troops along the Yalu River between Manchuria and Korea. The Kwantung army, without authorization from the central government, uses these incidents as an excuse to launch major offensives on Russian positions in Manchuria.

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Advance of the Kwantung Army in Manchuria

September 1944: US troops occupying the Dominican Republic capture Trujillo, who had been an ally of Featherston and was a key accomplice during the Haitian genocides. Trujillo will be tried before a military court in 1945 and sentenced to death.

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Rafael Trujillo, Dictator of the Dominican Republic

September 1944: The last of the Rio de Janeiro Conferences [2] between Germany and Japan. Since the Japanese turned on their Entente allies in 1943, German and Japanese governments remained in contact in order to coordinate the war in Asia. However, this meeting is for a different purpose: to plan the balance of power in the Far East after the war. Japan agrees to return German Pacific colonies in exchange for recognizing its claims over captured British territories. In addition, Germany and Japan plan out spheres of influence in China. The Germans will have influence in Shandong, as well as in Nanking and Shanghai. The Japanese will have control in much of southern China, such as Guangdong, Guanxi, and Yunnan. The Germans are to also permit Japanese troop movements through the Peking-Hong Kong railroad. The status of Russia is also discussed, but there is no consensus on what is to be done with her.

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German and Japanese diplomats signing an agreement during the 1944 Rio de Janeiro Conference

September 1944 onwards: British rule in India begins to break down. Nationalist, ethnic, and religious violence flare up across the subcontinent. In Bombay, the Royal Indian Navy mutinies and seizes control of the city, flying INA flags on government buildings. In the puppet Kingdom of Hyderabad, a socialist uprising threatens British control in the Deccan, with leaders expressing their allegiance to Bose.

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Newspaper reporting on the Bombay Mutiny
September 1944: Russian and Japanese diplomats agree to end the fighting in Manchuria. Russian troops will withdraw across the Amur River, giving the entire region of Manchuria to the Japanese. However, this deal angers ultranationalists within the Cabinet, especially among the army faction, who wanted to foment a wider war in order to annex large swathes of the Russian Far East. Army leaders blame the Navy, the predominant faction in the government, for agreeing to peace with Russia to focus on their Nanshin-ron Campaign in Southeast Asia and deny the IJA its glory.

October 1944: A certain American businessman and owner of the popular American Agriculturalist magazine publishes a different kind of book. In his bestseller The South is Our Problem, Hans Morgenthau Jr. calls for the South to be completely deindustrialized, all food supplies to be controlled by the occupying authorities, Southerners to be put on a bare subsistence level of nutrition, and for no action to be taken to rebuild the South. The book becomes a bestseller among Democratic and Remembrist circles. Morgenthau is a good friend of Dewey and begins serving as an "advisor" on Southern policy.

October 1944: The Canadian uprising mostly ends, though some minor clashes with surviving guerillas in the wilderness will continue until the 1950s.

November 1944: Dewey defeats LaFollette and Stassen to win the presidency in a landslide. Though popular history places the reason for this victory on previous Socialist weakness towards the south, it was in reality a reaction to postwar economic anxiety caused by recession, inflation, and high unemployment.

December 1944: Japanese Prime Minister admiral Naokuni Nomura is assassinated, in what is believed by many to be an Army attempt to seize power. In response, Emperor Hirohito appoints Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni, the only one believed to be able to control both IJA and IJN factions, as Prime Minister.


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Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni


[1] The Socialist Convention had occurred a month earlier in June.

[2] Got this idea from @S. Marlowski's iceburg chart
 
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Wouldn't a war too soon just be naval operation unthinkable?

The problem with a fourth Pacific war is that if it happens too soon would the US even have it in them to fully beat Japan considering they're still reeling from the second great war?

If it happens too late than it will be nuclear/thermonuclear since Japan will have the bomb sooner rather than later realistically, so the window for a war to remain conventional will be short and will close quickly.
I never liked the idea that a Fourth Pacific War would break out. I would think that either the Co-Prosperity Sphere would have to reform to be less of a vehicle of Japanese imperialism in time, or more likely, large scale rebellions would cause the Japanese Empire to withdraw from various regions. In the long run, China and especially India would not remain puppet states for long and the Japanese government would have to make concessions to them. Perhaps the Sphere becomes a four sided alliance between Japan, China, India and Thailand while the rest of East Asia and Southeast Asia are divided into various puppet states and spheres of influence. Once the Japanese get their hands on nuclear weapons, a war between the US and Japan would be suicidal.
 
I never liked the idea that a Fourth Pacific War would break out. I would think that either the Co-Prosperity Sphere would have to reform to be less of a vehicle of Japanese imperialism in time, or more likely, large scale rebellions would cause the Japanese Empire to withdraw from various regions. In the long run, China and especially India would not remain puppet states for long and the Japanese government would have to make concessions to them. Perhaps the Sphere becomes a four sided alliance between Japan, China, India and Thailand while the rest of East Asia and Southeast Asia are divided into various puppet states and spheres of influence. Once the Japanese get their hands on nuclear weapons, a war between the US and Japan would be suicidal.
My idea of what happens with India is that Japan never invaded them, but instead collaborated with Indian rebels before the betrayal of the Entente.
 
I never liked the idea that a Fourth Pacific War would break out. I would think that either the Co-Prosperity Sphere would have to reform to be less of a vehicle of Japanese imperialism in time, or more likely, large scale rebellions would cause the Japanese Empire to withdraw from various regions. In the long run, China and especially India would not remain puppet states for long and the Japanese government would have to make concessions to them. Perhaps the Sphere becomes a four sided alliance between Japan, China, India and Thailand while the rest of East Asia and Southeast Asia are divided into various puppet states and spheres of influence. Once the Japanese get their hands on nuclear weapons, a war between the US and Japan would be suicidal.

Wasn’t genociding the entire Japanese population a position held by a notable minority of the OTL US after just Pearl Harbour?
 

bguy

Donor
Once the Japanese get their hands on nuclear weapons, a war between the US and Japan would be suicidal.

There is that period of time though where Japan will have nuclear weapons but not enough of them (or will lack sufficient delivery mechanism to get enough of them to the United States) where Japan would be vulnerable to a preemptive US nuclear strike. And give that in TL-191, the nuclear taboo is much weaker than IOTL, Japan has a recent history of launching sneak attacks on its neighbors, the U.S., post-Operation Blackbeard, will be much more paranoid about being attacked than it ever was IOTL, and the U.S. is much more ruthless than it ever was IOTL (see the willingness of the US to execute civilian hostages), there's a good chance the TL-191 U.S. would launch such a nuclear strike on Japan if it sees the Japanese developing nuclear weapons.

Japan would need to be under the German nuclear umbrella to be able to develop a sufficient nuclear force of its own to establish MAD with the U.S., but what's the incentive for Germany to ally with Japan (a country that in TL-191 has consistently been a very unreliable ally)?
 
U.S. would launch such a nuclear strike on Japan if it sees the Japanese developing nuclear weapons.
It's not a matter of if, realistically Japan WILL develop nuclear weapons. They have the physicists, they OTL were part of the greater scientific community and they do have access to uranium in Korea and Manchuria. Post-war they'd be in the same sort of panic as the Soviet's were otl and they'd dump as much money and resources into their already existing program to test a bomb and produce them as soon as possible. At the absolute latest Japan would test it's first bomb by the early 50's.

The US launching a pre-emptive and unprovoked nuclear strike isn't even ruthlessness that's just cartoonishly evil, and it will result in the US becoming a pariah state, I just don't see any president willingly writing off on such an act, with the (imo guaranteed) risk of antagonizing the entire world against you.
 
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bguy

Donor
It's not a matter of if, realistically Japan WILL develop nuclear weapons. They have the physicists, they OTL were part of the greater scientific community and they do have access to uranium in Korea and Manchuria. Post-war they'd be in the same sort of panic as the Soviet's were otl and they'd dump as much money and resources into their already existing program to test a bomb and produce them as soon as possible. At the absolute latest Japan would test it's first bomb by the early 50's.

The US launching a pre-emptive and unprovoked nuclear strike isn't even ruthlessness that's just cartoonishly evil, and it will result in the US becoming a pariah state, I just don't see any president willingly writing off on such an act, with the (imo guaranteed) risk of antagonizing the entire world against you.

IOTL the US seriously considered launching a preemptive strike with nuclear weapons on China in 1964 to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons.


And per the Chinese government at least, just a few years later the Soviets considered a nuclear strike on China and were only deterred by the United States threatening war with the Soviets if such an attack was launched.


So even IOTL the idea of launching a nuclear strike to prevent a hostile nation from developing nuclear weapons was hardly beyond a pale for the superpowers, and while IOTL both the Americans and then the Soviets ultimately decided against launching such an attack, the calculation is likely to be different in TL-191. (Operation Blackbeard was literally thousands of times more destructive to the United States than the OTL Pearl Harbor attack was. No US president is going to be willing to risk allowing Blackbeard 2: this time with nuclear weapons to happen.)

As for the idea that the US would become a pariah state for launching such an attack. I think that is wrong for several reasons.

1) a U.S. nuclear strike on Japan doesn't have to be genocidal in nature. (Attacking Japanese nuclear installations is very different that targeting Japanese cities)
2) TL-191 Japan is itself a rogue state that has no friends and who betrayed all of its former allies. (No one is going to want to see a nation like that armed with nuclear weapons or shed any tears if it is prevented from getting them.)
3) It is very difficult for a nation to become a pariah state. This is because in international relations, nations act in what is perceived as their best interest, with moral considerations a very, very distant consideration. That's why IOTL the US was willing to ally with Stalin in the Second World War despite the millions of people he had killed, and why no less than ten years after the Second World War, the US allowed West Germany to join NATO and to rebuild its army, despite the Germans having launched a world war and committed a genocide just a few years before. Thus as long as nations are benefiting from relations with TL-191 US they will continue to engage with it, even if the TL-191 US acts aggressively (or even monstrously) towards Japan.

And of course the earlier Japan gets the bomb, the more likely it will provoke a nuclear response from the US, since the memories of the Second Great War will be rawer, the Japanese government will definitely be seen as the mad dogs that attacked literally everyone just a few years before, and the dangerous of radiation will be less understood than it would be even a few years later.
 
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